4th Down No Problem: Go for it!

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
There is also a difference between going for 4th down vs a team like San Fran who give up 83% on 4th down vs Philly who was 22% on giving up a 1st on 4th down. People use this overall avg but fact remains not all defense are the same and their ability to stop their opponent on 4th down.

No SABR advocate would argue otherwise. The smart move would
-Start w/ league averages
-Adjust for strength of opposing unit
-Adjust for strength of your unit
-Adjust for score/time remaining

You can be sure teams in the near future will have an IPad or MS Surface app that provides the calculations.

I’m not saying coaches should always use a calculated advice...but should do so most of the time.
 
Last edited:

Doomsday101

Well-Known Member
Messages
107,762
Reaction score
39,034
No SABR advocate would argue otherwise. The smart move would
-Start w/ league averages
-Adjust for strength of opposing unit
-Adjust for strength of your unit

You can be sure teams in the near future will have an IPad or MS Surface app that provides the calculations.

yeah and when you fail and it cost you the game those coaches end up fired. Coaches do not do it based on years of experience. Putting your opponent in the hole as opposed to risking giving up great field position. I agree their are times within the game to take a chance but there are times you are better served by changing up the field position
 

Doomsday101

Well-Known Member
Messages
107,762
Reaction score
39,034
Your right. They don’t. Coaches are absurdly conservative right now. Things will be changing as the conviction grows around the league to rely on analytics.


The game is not played on paper. SF 83% failure of preventing a 1st down as opposed to Philly who wins those battles 73% of the time skews things a lot
 

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
It’s been interesting to watch AI smoke humans in chess, Go, and other games. There are many human traditions and tactics that become the norm...that are inferior approaches.

And humans have strong psychological bias against risk in decision-making. It is called Prospect Bias.

It’s interesting that in a game of football...undue FEAR is allowed to have so much sway.
 

xwalker

Well-Known Member
Messages
56,999
Reaction score
64,468
CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
These are scenarios I could see Dallas become much more aggressive in 2018.

4th and one foot, our own 41 yard line...go for it.
4th and two, opposing 44 yard line...go for it.
4th and goal...2 yards out...go for it.

The Eagles coaches let the analytics dictate last season...and the analytics suggest it’s a much smarter to be aggressive over conservative in 4th down decision-making.

Philly was crazy-successful w/this approach last season.

On top of the league-wide analytics we have invested in a premium o-line. I say we need to take more risk, press opponents and keep our offense on the field.

Do you have stats on Cowboys compared to the league?

I "feel" like Garrett has been more aggressive in recent years.

I think most people (experts and fans) agree that the NFL is too conservative on 4th down.

One problem is that coaches get fired for losing games way more than for not winning games if that makes sense. A failed 4th down attempt is almost always blamed on the Head Coach; whereas, losses are often focused on the players.

The stats that show going for it more often is good, only really work if the team stays aggressive even when they experience failed attempts.

A low number of attempts has a problem similar to small sample sizes in statistical data. A fail is a bigger issue if the team is unlikely to stay aggressive and get other attempts that succeed in order to offset the fails.
 

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
yeah and when you fail and it cost you the game those coaches end up fired. Coaches do not do it based on years of experience. Putting your opponent in the hole as opposed to risking giving up great field position. I agree their are times within the game to take a chance but there are times you are better served by changing up the field position

Analytics-based decision-making doesn’t cost a coach a job if there is philosophical buy-in to the approach at the higher levels...and w/the owner.

It will put less educated fans in a tizzy.
 
Last edited:

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
Do you have stats on Cowboys compared to the league?

I "feel" like Garrett has been more aggressive in recent years.

I think most people (experts and fans) agree that the NFL is too conservative on 4th down.

One problem is that coaches get fired for losing games way more than for not winning games if that makes sense. A failed 4th down attempt is almost always blamed on the Head Coach; whereas, losses are often focused on the players.

The stats that show going for it more often is good, only really work if the team stays aggressive even when they experience failed attempts.

A low number of attempts has a problem similar to small sample sizes in statistical data. A fail is a bigger issue if the team is unlikely to stay aggressive and get other attempts that succeed in order to offset the fails.

Please read back through the thread. Adam documents how Garrett has virtually never gone for it except 4th and 1 or desperation circumstances.

Coaches who use higher risk analytics need the backing of better-educated front office folks and owners. I believe we will see this in Dallas.

If Dallas does it...Fans will likely go hysterical initially...as there will certainly be some occasions where it doesn’t benefit the team. Fans will fixate on when it doesn’t work. There must be a commitment as over time it will win more games than it loses.
 

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
We’re just going to cut our best WR, keep the same coaches, and Garrett is going to snap his fingers and suddenly become a strategic playcaller that’s aggressive on 4th down.

Changing philosophy/strategy isn’t magical...all it takes is a decision based on data. You don’t think Jason can change? I strongly disagree.

Again...strong support up the organizational food chain—and with players is critical.

Players need to understand:
-We are going to show more faith in you
-This isn’t a gimmick, it’s math
-You will be awarded greater freedom to go win the games
 

Roadtrip635

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,010
Reaction score
26,940
Using math to factor strategy works in all sports and games. There are no exceptions.
It only works if the analytics are interpreted and applied correctly.
In the article you reference, they only used data from the 1st and 3rd qtrs, eliminating half the game and arguably the quarters that going for it would be more likely to be used. They also eliminated data from a wide range of factors. Stats work because it measures the probability of an outcome over time, but the frequency of that result is not going to fall into that same probability. Each attempt is independent of each other, just because you miss 3 attempts in a row doesn't mean the next attempt will be successful. I have been in a casino and watching roulette where black hit for 14+ times in a row on numerous occasions, eventually it would regress to the mean, but it also doesn't mean it would regress the same way. Instead of 14 red in a row, it may be 3 or 4 in a row over a period of time.

Those stats are also very general and would have to be recalculated for each team and individual factors like opponents, weather, surface, personnel, time remaining etc. While the success is measured over time, each game has a finite amount of time. Analytics are useful, but again, it's about interpreting and applying the information. It requires a feel for the game and moment and calculating the risk involved. If you fail on successive attempts, it will change the risks you may have to take to overcome them. You have failed to score points, turn over the ball giving the opponent opportunity to score and used time.
 

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
It only works if the analytics are interpreted and applied correctly.
In the article you reference, they only used data from the 1st and 3rd qtrs, eliminating half the game and arguably the quarters that going for it would be more likely to be used. They also eliminated data from a wide range of factors. Stats work because it measures the probability of an outcome over time, but the frequency of that result is not going to fall into that same probability. Each attempt is independent of each other, just because you miss 3 attempts in a row doesn't mean the next attempt will be successful. I have been in a casino and watching roulette where black hit for 14+ times in a row on numerous occasions, eventually it would regress to the mean, but it also doesn't mean it would regress the same way. Instead of 14 red in a row, it may be 3 or 4 in a row over a period of time.

Those stats are also very general and would have to be recalculated for each team and individual factors like opponents, weather, surface, personnel, time remaining etc. While the success is measured over time, each game has a finite amount of time. Analytics are useful, but again, it's about interpreting and applying the information. It requires a feel for the game and moment and calculating the risk involved. If you fail on successive attempts, it will change the risks you may have to take to overcome them. You have failed to score points, turn over the ball giving the opponent opportunity to score and used time.


Anyone working in analytics for a professional franchise is going to be a probabilities expert. And no one gets to be an expert without understanding variables (in this case variables like score, time-remaining, team’s relative strength/weakness etc).

Ultimately all head coaches will have an app that factors in all the odds in various scenarios. (Some teams already have this) A coach will know...Fourth and four at the 50...mid fourth quarter...score X...here is the likelihood of making a 1st down...and here is the recommended call based on the data. The coach will then make his decision.

The article was trying to explain concepts and thus avoided 4th quarter play. Time management in the 4th quarter is an additional science with its own complexities. The article would have been bogged down had it added that layer.
 
Last edited:

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
10 years ago baseball managers went by the old-school book and innovation was frowned upon.

Now if managers aren’t willing to work receptively with their analytics staff...they are likely to get fired. The same thing will happen in football in coming years.
 

Roadtrip635

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,010
Reaction score
26,940
Anyone working in analytics for a professional franchise is going to be a probabilities expert. And no one gets to be an expert without understanding variables (in this case variables like score, time-remaining, team’s relative strength/weakness etc).

Ultimately head coaches will have an app that factors in all the odds in various scenarios. A coach will know...Fourth and four at the 50...mid fourth quarter...score X...here is the likelihood of making a 1st down...and here is the recommended call based on the data. The coach will then make his decision.

The article was trying to explain concepts and thus avoided 4th quarter play. Time management in the 4th quarter is an additional science with its own complexities.
That article also avoided using the 2nd qtr, so it was still only using half of the actual game time. It has also been shown in theory, that it is more beneficial to always go for it on 4th down and never punt, regardless of down and distance. What can be mathematically proved on paper doesn't always play out that way in the field.
 

Roadtrip635

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,010
Reaction score
26,940
10 years ago baseball managers went by the old-school book and innovation was frowned upon.

Now if managers aren’t willing to work receptively with their analytics staff...they are likely to get fired. The same thing will happen in football in coming years.
The consequences of a negative outcome from an analytical standpoint for an MLB team is different than for an NFL team. If a MLB subs a hitter to get a statistical advantage and it fails, it doesn't impact the team in the same way. The other team doesn't get to move the fences in 10' when they go to bat because the other team failed. If an NFL team doesn't get that 1st down, they have given up field position and a higher probability for the other team to score and lost time. 162 games is also more forgiving in variances than just 10% of that in the NFL. Again, analytics have their place, but doesn't guarantee success.
 

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
There is one coach in the high school ranks who almost NEVER punts. He’s led his team to 165-25-1. Was USA coach of the year in 2016.

There was one coach in the NFL who was by far the most aggressive in 4th down calls...he won the Super Bowl.

We will always be able to find examples on both sides of the debate as there are many factors in success/failure in sports.

Ultimately if there is a more intelligent way to run things...intelligence will win out in the end. Evolve or die.

For decades football traditionalist said running was the key to winning and passing was gimmicky. We saw how that turned out.

*Coach Kevin Kelley. NFL execs and coaches have sought him out for consultation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-another-radical-idea/?utm_term=.d5d583efdd78
 
Last edited:

Roadtrip635

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,010
Reaction score
26,940
There is one coach in the high school ranks who NEVER punts. He’s led his team to 77-17 record.

There was one coach in the NFL who was by far the most aggressive in 4th down calls...he won the Super Bowl.

We will always be able to find examples on both sides of the debate as there are many factors in success/failure in sports.

Ultimately if there is a more intelligent way to run things...intelligence will win out in the end. Evolve or die.

For decades football traditionalist said running was the key to winning and passing was gimmicky. We saw how that turned out.


Numerous rule changes over decades have made the passing game potent, not the use of statistics. Go back to the old rules and passing today wouldn't be any more successful today than it was then, rushing would still rule the day.
 

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
Numerous rule changes over decades have made the passing game potent, not the use of statistics. Go back to the old rules and passing today wouldn't be any more successful today than it was then, rushing would still rule the day.

What year would you like for me to go back to?
 

Roadtrip635

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,010
Reaction score
26,940
What year would you like for me to go back to?
Go back to whenever you think that the passing game became a bigger asset than a rushing game. The rules have continually been changed to benefit offense and increase scoring and player safety. The passing game now is successful and more efficient because of the rule changes.

Elway only has one 4000 yd season and Blake Bortles has a 4400+ yd passing season, that's not because Denver didn't use analytics. Rule changes matter.
 

T-RO

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,830
Reaction score
16,344
Go back to whenever you think that the passing game became a bigger asset than a rushing game. The rules have continually been changed to benefit offense and increase scoring and player safety. The passing game now is successful and more efficient because of the rule changes.

Elway only has one 4000 yd season and Blake Bortles has a 4400+ yd passing season, that's not because Denver didn't use analytics. Rule changes matter.

1970’s was probably the end of the era when rushing game was more critical. Anyway, the debate about rush-versus-pass has been beaten to death around here. Lest we drift off-topic I’m not going to post more about that...
 
Top