4th Down No Problem: Go for it!

[bigdnlaca]

Garrett has shown he will only go for it on 4th down if it is a meaningful game or desperate. However, he wouldn't go for it on 4th down if Dan Bailey can tie or give the Cowboys the lead.

However, I remember seeing Wade Phillips going for it on 4th down in 2010 against the Texans in the first quarter in Cowboy's territory. I don't think Red will ever do that.

 

[Doomsday101]

Garrett has shown he will only go for it on 4th down if it is a meaningful game or desperate. However, he wouldn't go for it on 4th down if Dan Bailey can tie or give the Cowboys the lead.

However, I remember seeing Wade Phillips going for it on 4th down in 2010 against the Texans in the first quarter in Cowboy's territory. I don't think Red will ever do that.

You better have faith in your defense to stop the other team if you are willing to go for it. I think there are many factors you look at what the situation is and who you are up against. There are some quality defense who can shut you down. I recall Switzer going for it with Emmitt Smith at RB vs Philly in our own territory and they nailed Smith for no gain, we turn the ball over and they would end up scoring and winning the game and Switzer caught holly hell for it.

 

[bigdnlaca]

You better have faith in your defense to stop the other team if you are willing to go for it. I think there are many factors you look at what the situation is and who you are up against. There are some quality defense who can shut you down. I recall Switzer going for it with Emmitt Smith at RB vs Philly in our own territory and they nailed Smith for no gain, we turn the ball over and they would end up scoring and winning the game and Switzer caught holly hell for it.

I will play a little devil's advocate about the 95 game. IIRC, the Cowboys offense didn't do anything since Emmitt scored the TD. The Cowboys defense were on the field a lot in the 2nd half. If Switzer kicked the ball, their wasn't a guarantee that the Cowboys would stop them. They just let Ricky Watters go off on them in the previous possession.

Switzer basically saying that we are either going to win with our offense because our defense is letting "Pretty Ricky" Watters do whatever he wanted or the game is going to OT. If they would have punted, the Eagles would have been more aggressive with their play calling and the Cowboys wouldn't get the ball back. Instead when Philly took over, they were very cautious and it made it easier for the Cowboys to defend. At the end of the day, the Cowboys got the ball back to still have a chance to tie or win the game with more time on the clock than if it was kicked to Philly imo.

Anyways. I don't expect the Cowboys to do that but I would like for the Cowboys offense to be more aggressive if the defense is playing lights out or if the opposing defense have shown that they can't stop the Cowboys' "money plays".

 

[Doomsday101]

I will play a little devil's advocate about the 95 game. IIRC, the Cowboys offense didn't do anything since Emmitt scored the TD. The Cowboys defense were on the field a lot in the 2nd half. If Switzer kicked the ball, their wasn't a guarantee that the Cowboys would stop them. They just let Ricky Watters go off on them in the previous possession.

Switzer basically saying that we are either going to win with our offense because our defense is letting "Pretty Ricky" Watters do whatever he wanted or the game is going to OT. If they would have punted, the Eagles would have been more aggressive with their play calling and the Cowboys wouldn't get the ball back. Instead when Philly took over, they were very cautious and it made it easier for the Cowboys to defend. At the end of the day, the Cowboys got the ball back to still have a chance to tie or win the game with more time on the clock than if it was kicked to Philly imo.

Anyways. I don't expect the Cowboys to do that but I would like for the Cowboys offense to be more aggressive if the defense is playing lights out or if the opposing defense have shown that they can't stop the Cowboys' "money plays".

Dallas ranked 8th in going for it on 4th down, that is not being passive. I have no problem being aggressive but again what the situation is matters the defense you are facing matters. Stats are an overall view of all teams, but in a game vs a top ranked defense their success rate on stopping 4th down is likely much higher than avg. In other words not all teams are built the same. As for the Switzer going for it, I agree with what you wrote and will even add that on a cold day with a stiff wind in that direction had already showed they our punts were not going very far so they likely get great field position either way, but that did not stop the Monday morning QB's from raking Switzer over the coals. Going for it often is great if you make it but when you fail everyone finds fault in doing it.

 

[TexasHillbilly]

Going for it on fourth down is not as easy as it sounds. You gotta have guts, and great defense to bail you out if you don't make it.

So much depends on the situation like where you are on the field, the score, if your hitting on all cylinders and the size of your coaches balls. I would say we won't be going for many 4th downs this season.

 

[bigdnlaca]

Dallas ranked 8th in going for it on 4th down, that is not being passive. I have no problem being aggressive but again what the situation is matters the defense you are facing matters. Stats are an overall view of all teams, but in a game vs a top ranked defense their success rate on stopping 4th down is likely much higher than avg. In other words not all teams are built the same. As for the Switzer going for it, I agree with what you wrote and will even add that on a cold day with a stiff wind in that direction had already showed they our punts were not going very far so they likely get great field position either way, but that did not stop the Monday morning QB's from raking Switzer over the coals. Going for it often is great if you make it but when you fail everyone finds fault in doing it.

I think failed attempts on going for it on 4th in your own territory, surprise onside kicks etc. will only work if you know that your defense won't stop a team that has the full field but good enough to hold a team out of the endzone or if you want to preserve time and your offense is that good to make up for the consequences. An example I remember is a game between NO and Atlanta where Atlanta failed on a surprised onside kick and down by 3 with 4 mins left in the game. Brees was carving up the defense all game but Atlanta was still hanging on. NO I believe ran the ball three times and settled for the field goal. Atlanta had the ball back with around 2 mins left needing a TD to win the game. NO eventually won the game but Atlanta did that because years prior (2010) , they gave Brees the whole field up by a FG I think and he threw the ball on them on third down and Atlanta didn't see the ball again.

Dallas offense when healthy is good and even better when Dak is used in the run game. Dallas being ranked 8th don't mean much except for they don't make much mistakes. However, they don't create mistakes either.

 

[JBond]

Wrong. Stephen not only studies sabrmetrics...he has been a speaker at some of the conferences.

Teams have already been stealing from the Boy’s strategy in aggressively prioritizing o-line

Stephen is just one piece and he is not calling plays. We won't really know what we have in Stephen until Jerry steps aside or dies.

 

[gjkoeppen]

These are scenarios I could see Dallas become much more aggressive in 2018.

4th and one foot, our own 41 yard line...go for it.
4th and two, opposing 44 yard line...go for it.
4th and goal...2 yards out...go for it.

The Eagles coaches let the analytics dictate last season...and the analytics suggest it’s a much smarter to be aggressive over conservative in 4th down decision-making.

Philly was crazy-successful w/this approach last season.

On top of the league-wide analytics we have invested in a premium o-line. I say we need to take more risk, press opponents and keep our offense on the field.

Your 4th down choices mean little without some important facts. Are the Cowboys winning or losing, what quarter is it, how much time is left, has the other's team's offense moved the ball easily, how many timeouts do each team have. Unless the Cowboys are down by more than 2 with no timeouts left and less than 2 minutes left I don't agree at all with going for it from 2 yards out. It's is better to get the lead with a sure field goal and forcing the other team to have to move the ball and make a winning field goal. than risking getting stuffed and losing by 2. Making blanket statements like that without all the facts means nothing.
.

 

[Doomsday101]

I think failed attempts on going for it on 4th in your own territory, surprise onside kicks etc. will only work if you know that your defense won't stop a team that has the full field but good enough to hold a team out of the endzone or if you want to preserve time and your offense is that good to make up for the consequences. An example I remember is a game between NO and Atlanta where Atlanta failed on a surprised onside kick and down by 3 with 4 mins left in the game. Brees was carving up the defense all game but Atlanta was still hanging on. NO I believe ran the ball three times and settled for the field goal. Atlanta had the ball back with around 2 mins left needing a TD to win the game. NO eventually won the game but Atlanta did that because years prior (2010) , they gave Brees the whole field up by a FG I think and he threw the ball on them on third down and Atlanta didn't see the ball again.

Dallas offense when healthy is good and even better when Dak is used in the run game. Dallas being ranked 8th don't mean much except for they don't make much mistakes. However, they don't create mistakes either.

To me being ranked 8th shows the staff is not afraid to go for it. I think it is foolish to go for it all the time, some people will use the 4th down stat as a means to prove their point, however I think there are some defense I would be more incline to go for it vs another team. I think if you are going into a game and think you have no chance of winning then why not, but I think Cowboys are more than capable of playing straight up football with any team out there. I don't mind aggressive just not a fan of being stupid.

 

[Ranching]

So much depends on the situation like where you are on the field, the score, if your hitting on all cylinders and the size of your coaches balls. I would say we won't be going for many 4th downs this season.

 

[AdamJT13]

Dallas ranked 8th in going for it on 4th down, that is not being passive.

The only times Garrett took any risk at all by going for it on fourth down last season was on fourth-and-1. Half of his fourth-down attempts came on fourth-and-1, and some of them actually were not in desperate situations.

Every other fourth-down call came either late in the fourth quarter of the game or when we were down by more than three touchdowns in the third quarter, with one exception -- a Hail Mary at the end of the second quarter from our own 49-yard line (too far to try a field goal) against the Commanders.

The same thing was true in 2016 -- not a single fourth-down call with more than 1 yard to go unless we were behind late in the fourth quarter.

In fact, I had to go back to the 2010 season to find ANY time when Garrett went for it on fourth down with more than 1 yard to go except in those situations that I mentioned (late in fourth quarter or overtime, down by a huge margin in the third quarter or a Hail Mary on the last play of the first half).

That is being passive.

 

[Melonfeud]

Yeah and I suggest at least 1 running play with Zeke on 1'st and goal from the 2 yard line. At least rumblin, stumblin 82 won't get in the way of a run call. Nor Dezzie Loo who

How tall is that corn now?,,,you ought to update yer' shingle

 

[Melonfeud]

There's a big difference in analytics used in MLB and the NBA versus the NFL. The difference is in the number of attempts to gain the data, a 2 pt shot vs a 3 pt shot, the trade off works because of the sheer number of shots taken and higher total points scored. Miss a single 3pt shot and it doesn't change the complexion of the game or how the coach strategize after that miss, unless it's the last 2 minutes of game. Because of the relatively low number of real scoring opportunities in the NFL versus NBA/MLB, if you fail the consequences are much harsher. The NFL also has so many fewer games, much less margin for error if you lose a game. If this team truly embraced analytics, it would be built around defense first and on offense it would be built around the passing game, the rule changes over the last several years benefit passing game vs rushing game.

Tomlin got his team into trouble at times he didn't have to in the past using/misusing analytics. He was aggressive in going for 2 pt conversions, because the data showed it should produce better results. It works until it doesn't and changes the way he had to coach to make up for those failed attempts. Analytics is useful in building rosters, but using them during a game requires a feel for the game and moment. It also requires the ability to prepare and adapt for if/when it fails.

Great post @Roadtrip635 & brilliant observation on Pittsburgh's often found game time dilemma

 

[Rockport]

The only times Garrett took any risk at all by going for it on fourth down last season was on fourth-and-1. Half of his fourth-down attempts came on fourth-and-1, and some of them actually were not in desperate situations.

Every other fourth-down call came either late in the fourth quarter of the game or when we were down by more than three touchdowns in the third quarter, with one exception -- a Hail Mary at the end of the second quarter from our own 49-yard line (too far to try a field goal) against the Commanders.

The same thing was true in 2016 -- not a single fourth-down call with more than 1 yard to go unless we were behind late in the fourth quarter.

In fact, I had to go back to the 2010 season to find ANY time when Garrett went for it on fourth down with more than 1 yard to go except in those situations that I mentioned (late in fourth quarter or overtime, down by a huge margin in the third quarter or a Hail Mary on the last play of the first half).

That is being passive.

All 4th down attempts are critical. If you don't make it, it's basically a turnover.

 

[xwalker]

In this case, absolutely. I am.

If Jason knows his bosses will support him when things don’t work out w/aggressive calls...and they specifically encourage him to go with the statistical odds... he’ll do it.

Stephen Jones is a heavy analytics guy.

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/people/stephen-jones/

 

[T-RO]

There's a big difference in analytics used in MLB and the NBA versus the NFL. The difference is in the number of attempts to gain the data, a 2 pt shot vs a 3 pt shot, the trade off works because of the sheer number of shots taken and higher total points scored. Miss a single 3pt shot and it doesn't change the complexion of the game or how the coach strategize after that miss, unless it's the last 2 minutes of game. Because of the relatively low number of real scoring opportunities in the NFL versus NBA/MLB, if you fail the consequences are much harsher. The NFL also has so many fewer games, much less margin for error if you lose a game. If this team truly embraced analytics, it would be built around defense first and on offense it would be built around the passing game, the rule changes over the last several years benefit passing game vs rushing game.

Tomlin got his team into trouble at times he didn't have to in the past using/misusing analytics. He was aggressive in going for 2 pt conversions, because the data showed it should produce better results. It works until it doesn't and changes the way he had to coach to make up for those failed attempts. Analytics is useful in building rosters, but using them during a game requires a feel for the game and moment. It also requires the ability to prepare and adapt for if/when it fails.

Using math to factor strategy works in all sports and games. There are no exceptions.

 

[T-RO]

All 4th down attempts are critical. If you don't make it, it's basically a turnover.

You are turning the ball over to the other team when you punt.

What must be measured is expected point value of the available options. This article explains:
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/120-4th-down-study

Does the 35 or so average net yards of field position outweigh the chance to keep the ball?

The math says no...for many cases where NFL coaches punt.

 

[Doomsday101]

You are turning the ball over to the other team when you punt.

What must be measured is expected point value of the available options. This article explains:
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/120-4th-down-study

Does the 35 or so average net yards of field position outweigh the chance to keep the ball?

The math says no...not in many cases where NFL coaches punt.

There is also a difference between going for 4th down vs a team like San Fran who give up 83% on 4th down vs Philly who was 22% on giving up a 1st on 4th down. People use this overall avg but fact remains not all defense are the same and their ability to stop their opponent on 4th down.

 

[T-RO]

Statistically if it’s 4th and 2...for instance...it’s usually smarter to go for it — unless you are inside your own 30.

 

[Doomsday101]

Statistically if it’s 4th and 2...for instance...it’s usually smarter to go for it — unless you are inside your own 30.

Yet NFL coaches do not do that very often.