Cockiness is dangerous in all sports. It's important to avoid it at every turn, and especially in such an emotional and thin-lined league like the NFL. It's claimed more than its share of promising teams and turned them into last-place comedy fodder.
But dang it if I can figure out a way Dallas loses the NFC East outside of a colossal injury to Romo or a rash of them to key players. I just don't see how.
Simply put, this division looks putrid, other than the Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles: I just don't get the fascination. I guess if you put your Fantasy Football or Madden videogame hat on, this thing looks innovative and unstoppable. But from a REAL football standpoint, it's haphazard, foolish, and plays out like a ticking time bomb.
Chip keeps running off everybody that hurt Dallas. Gone are McCoy, Jackson, Maclin, and even Foles, who had some game to him. Ran off a good offensive lineman, too, as an early Christmas present. Somebody needs to check Chip to see if he's wearing Cowboys-star boxers or briefs, or check to see if he's filled out any college coaching applications yet.
The loss of the Mariotta sweepstakes seems to have sent Chip stir crazy, and now he's shuffling around with misfit quarterbacks looking to find themselves awash. Their lone realistic hope is that Sam Bradford can reclaim his knees and remember how to play quarterback. He hasn't done that particularly well in a long, long time. Against a good pass rush, I see these quarterbacks folding like a pair of twos at the big table.
Even if the best case QB situation comes into focus, they still have to have one of their young receivers become an immediate star, or the running game has to become better than Dallas' of last year out of the gate. I just don't see this coming together fast enough, or balanced enough, to rack up enough wins. Murray is good, as is Matthews, as is Sproles. But so what? That doesn't win without a consistent passing attack to go with it. And Murray and Matthews have long injury histories to boot.
Defensively, the Eagles suffer mightily from Chip's experimental wizardy. They have a stout defensive line, but the number of plays wears on them, especially as the number of games racks up on their big bodies. Add to that a weak secondary coupled with an iffy crop of linebackers. McCoy fetched a good one from Buffalo in Kiko Alonso, who's still trying to recover from a torn ACL last year.
I expect this to wane as the season marches on like usual, only faster this time. They're out of it by Thanksgiving.
New York Giants: I have immense respect for Tom Coughlin, and Eli Manning is a legitimate pro quarterback with rings. That commands attention right there, and it's the reason I initially thought they were the biggest threat. But Holy Mara, this thing is off to an ugly start.
Eli played four series in their first preseason game, and he didn't have a chance. They amassed 38 whole yards and one first down. The season-ending loss of their left tackle has them scrambling on an already weak front. Eli will be under a heavy pass rush all season, so those talented wideouts will be pressed constantly. If they can't effectively run behind that o-line, which I don't think they can, this could be a painfully sluggish offense.
Add to that the loss of their best pass rusher to July 4th explosion and a defense bereft of stars and proven pedigree, and this doesn't look like a typical Giants team that can play possession and field position with opponents. The makeup of this team won't allow Coughlin to manage games like he does so well.
Washington Commanders: I laughed when I heard the gushing about how well RG3 played in the preseason opener. They were "so encouraged" by his 4-for-8 performance for 36 yards. Garcon dropped a deep ball, but still, does anyone think Griffin is ready to suddenly command an offense and read defenses? Nope, he'll tuck and run, and that spells doom.
The Commanders, as always, have talent sprinkled about their roster. Pretty good offensive and defensive lines, reasonable skill players, seemingly adequate elsewhere.
The Commanders remain who they are, which was Dallas for a good long while but no more. Dysfunctional and rudderless, with nary a clue from coach or quarterback. More of the same.
Dallas Cowboys: I think we're way overly worried about the running backs for two reasons. First, these current guys are far from bad, and second, if something is needed, the Cowboys have the ammo and opportunity to go get what they need.
Dallas still stands with an elite QB, an elite offensive line, and an elite group of receivers. Average running backs....oh the horror. I think the running game remains highly potent behind this line.
What truly is exciting is how the new defensive line is shaping up. They're winning battles in camp against the o-line; last year they got embarrassed in camp. The corners are shaping up to be a team strength, if Sean Lee holds up, the defensive leader is back to this mix. With a pass rush, this could be a top 10 defense in the league.
The coaching staff as a whole is the best in the division, and the specialists are rock solid. There really aren't any weaknesses to this team, just a couple of areas of average-ness. What team doesn't have at least a couple areas of question? None.
And so, the division in my eyes mid-camp:
Dallas 12-4 (6-0 in the division will help)
Philly 7-9 (win early, but fade fast)
New York 6-10 (never gets off the ground)
Washington 5-11 (same old Commanders)
Too much happens throughout the course of a season to know with any certainty whatsoever how it's going to impact the W/L record. When 25% of your games are decided by two or three plays that get made or not. And when injuries or suspensions or players just blowing up or massively regressing can't be figured in at all. 
