A Myth About our Running Game

[T-RO]

A lot of fans here assume because Zeke has the most rushing yards in the NFL that the Cowboys must be an elite dominant running team.

We aren't...at least not in the way most people think.

If you take the top rushers...and rank them by YARDS PER CARRY...Zeke is only 14th, with an average of 4.7 yards per carry. Lots of guys have better production per carry.

As a team we are 6th in total rushing, and 10th in average per carry.

Our o-line has lacked good health, and at times it is neutralized. With that limitation we are a good rushing team--not a great rushing team.

 

[Dre11]

A lot of fans here assume because Zeke has the most rushing yards in the NFL that the Cowboys must be an elite dominant running team.

We aren't...at least not in the way most people think.

If you take the top rushers...and rank them by YARDS PER CARRY...Zeke is only 14th, with an average of 4.7 yards per carry. Lots of guys have better production per carry.

As a team we are 6th in total rushing, and 10th in average per carry.

Our o-line has lacked good health, and at times it is neutralized. With that limitation we are a good rushing team--not a great rushing team.

Are they carrying the ball as much as Zeke, because the higher attempts will skew the average.

 

[Aviano90]

# of attempts goes a long way in determing the rushing leader.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Yeah I mean if you go by the eye test......Zeke looks fine.....the run blocking doesn't. Those days of having wide open lanes numerous times throughout the game.....its rarely happening now.

 

[percyhoward]

A successful play gains at least 40% of yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down.

Elliott's Rushing Success Rate
2018 50% (15th)
2017 57% (2nd)
2016 57% (2nd)

 

[BAT]

A lot of fans here assume because Zeke has the most rushing yards in the NFL that the Cowboys must be an elite dominant running team.

We aren't...at least not in the way most people think.

If you take the top rushers...and rank them by YARDS PER CARRY...Zeke is only 14th, with an average of 4.7 yards per carry. Lots of guys have better production per carry.

As a team we are 6th in total rushing, and 10th in average per carry.

Our o-line has lacked good health, and at times it is neutralized. With that limitation we are a good rushing team--not a great rushing team.

Most of the League employ multiple RBs. Modern teams do not really have workhorse backs anymore.

Cowboys and small handful of teams are exceptions.

 

[Dre11]

Zeke attempts 268
Barkley attempts 206
Gurley attempts 244

 

[T-RO]

Are they carrying the ball as much as Zeke, because the higher attempts will skew the average.

It's true that a guy with a few number of carries can have a shiny average per carry...something he can't sustain.

But when I said Zeke was 14th...I limited it to guys who have lots of carries. He was 14th amongst the league leaders in carries.

 

[Bobhaze]

Our running game is good, not great. Any objective Cowboys fan would have to admit that the 2018 version of our OL cannot be described as dominant.

Tyron Smith was once on his way to a HOF career before injuries made him maybe 70% of what he once was. Zack Martin has played hurt all year. And the loss of Travis Frederick is huge even though Joe Looney has played pretty well for the most part. Connor Williams has at best been below average.

All that to say, our running game is not as dominant as it was 2014-2016. It can still be a big factor, but all the guys who scream every Sunday, “Just run the ball” as if this current patchwork offensive line can impose its will on an opponent is just not realistic.

 

[Reality]

YPC for a running back skews stats more than attempts by far because YPC for a running back can be heavily influenced by long runs.

The only way I would judge a running back would be to remove all 0-yard and negative yardage runs since that means he was hit behind the line of scrimmage and then remove all yardage over 15 yards for any run since that's less about the running back and more about the blocking and/or blown assignments on the defense.

Once you have those runs, then a YPC would be more accurate and you would have a better statistical rating for each running back.

 

[Dre11]

It's true that a guy with a few number of carries can have a shiny average per carry...something he can't sustain.

But when I said Zeke was 14th...I limited it to guys who have lots of carries. He was 14th amongst the league leaders in carries.

Zeke attempts dwarfs every other rbs other than Gurley.

 

[T-RO]

A successful play gains at least 40% of yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down.

Elliott's Rushing Success Rate
2018 50% (15th)
2017 57% (2nd)
2016 57% (2nd)

That's a great way of evaluating it, Percy. It's easy to see the drop off.

Next year I'd love the Cowboys to:
-Get the Bearded one back healthy (knock on wood)
-Get Martin's meniscus fixed (straight-forward)
-Get 20 pounds more heft on Williams (some fat is OK) then let him and Looney fight it out
-Bring in a top tackle via free agency that can push Collins or Smith

 

[Risen Star]

It's true that a guy with a few number of carries can have a shiny average per carry...something he can't sustain.

But when I said Zeke was 14th...I limited it to guys who have lots of carries. He was 14th amongst the league leaders in carries.

No he's not. In order to get him to 14th you have to count guys with about half the carries he has.

Your thread is silly. Stop watching football if you think this running game isn't highly effective.

 

[Risen Star]

A successful play gains at least 40% of yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down.

Where did those percentages come from?

 

[T-RO]

YPC for a running back skews stats more than attempts by far because YPC for a running back can be heavily influenced by long runs.

The only way I would judge a running back would be to remove all 0-yard and negative yardage runs since that means he was hit behind the line of scrimmage and then remove all yardage over 15 yards for any run since that's less about the running back and more about the blocking and/or blown assignments on the defense.

Once you have those runs, then a YPC would be more accurate and you would have a better statistical rating for each running back.

Long runs skew it but things tend to average out when you start getting enough data (e.g. 200 carries). I like Percy's stat a lot too...how often are you producing a successful play. What's that ratio?

We haven't seen Zeke with many home-run carries this year. That too reflects blocking - at the second level.

Fred-beard is great on downfield blocking as is Martin when he's himself and can run normally.

 

[Bobhaze]

That's a great way of evaluating it, Percy. It's easy to see the drop off.

Next year I'd love the Cowboys to:
-Get the Bearded one back healthy (knock on wood)
-Get Martin's meniscus fixed (straight-forward)
-Get 20 pounds more heft on Williams (some fat is OK)
-Bring in a top tackle via free agency that can push Collins or Smith

Most fans would probably not think this way yet but I’m of the opinion that one of our biggest draft needs in 2019 will be OL. My biggest concern is Tyron Smith. He used to be arguably the best LT in the league. Now we just hope he doesn’t get more than a couple of holding calls or get hurt worse.

It’s sad because #77 was IMO the best pure football player on this team from 2013-2016. He was an absolute HOF lock. Now he’s week to week if he can even play. Heartbreaking. But we can no longer just assume Ty Smith is going to lock down LT. We need to think about a high draft pick there sooner than later. And great LTs don’t grow on trees.

 

[Reality]

Long runs skew it but things tend to average out when you start getting enough data (e.g. 200 carries)

Actually, it doesn't if a running back has multiple long runs.

A great running back is one that will get you 3-7 yards on every carry. Not 1-2 yards on 95% of the carries and then two 50+ yard runs. You have receivers to get you 20+ yards down the field because they are more consistently capable of doing that. A running back's job is to move the chains. It's a bonus when they run for 15+ yards and that's great, but none of that matters if you cannot get first downs consistently and that's their primary focus.

 

[percyhoward]

Where did those percentages come from?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=254&cat=11

Success Rate (running backs): A measure of running back consistency based on the percentage of carries where the player gains 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down. Small adjustment in fourth quarter based on whether team is more than a touchdown behind or running out the clock. A running back above 50% is very consistent; below 40% is very inconsistent.

 

[T-RO]

Most fans would probably not think this way yet but I’m of the opinion that one of our biggest draft needs in 2019 will be OL. My biggest concern is Tyron Smith. He used to be arguably the best LT in the league. Now we just hope he doesn’t get more than a couple of holding calls and doesn’t get hurt worse.

It’s sad because #77 was IMO the best pure football player on this team from 2013-2016. He was an absolute HOF lock. Now he’s week to week if he can even play. Heartbreaking. But we can no longer just assume Ty Smith is going to lock down LT. We need to think about a high draft pick there sooner than later. And great LTs don’t grow on trees.

I agree with most everything you said, but I'd prefer to use our #2 for a tight end and then address tackle in free agency. Get someone who is ready, already developed. Then look to draft a premium tackle the following draft.

 

[percyhoward]

That's a great way of evaluating it, Percy. It's easy to see the drop off.

They just put thousands of plays into a computer, and those turn out to be the most common dividing lines for whether a team converts that down series or not. Much higher win correlation than yards per carry.