A Myth About our Running Game

[percyhoward]

So a 5 yard run on 2nd and 10 is an unsuccessful play? I'm supposed to believe that?

It means most teams either don't convert on 3rd and 5, or gain more on a 2nd and 10 run.

 

[Risen Star]

It means most teams either don't convert on 3rd and 5, or gain more on a 2nd and 10 run.

Most teams gain more than 5 yards on a 2nd and 10 run? I don't believe that.

I can't even imagine following the game like you do. As if it's some mathematical formula. Where 5 yard runs go into the "unsuccessful" category equal to 1 yard runs apparently.

What football fan can possibly think a RB averaging 5 yards a carry in that situation is an unsuccessful player? It's silly. Put the calculator down.

 

[percyhoward]

Most teams gain more than 5 yards on a 2nd and 10 run? I don't believe that.

5.32 yards.

https://www.pro-football-reference....cation[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards

And I'm as passionate about the game as you are, I just like knowing.

 

[Risen Star]

5.32 yards.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary_all&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=2&yds_to_go_min=10&yds_to_go_max=10&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=RUSH&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards

And I'm as passionate about the game as you are, I just like knowing.

So using these numbers, which only mean something to you, this means the league as a whole is unsuccessful rushing the ball on 2nd and 10 including 4 of the top 6 rushing teams in terms of total yards.

League average is unsuccessful.

It's silly. Common sense tells you if a back gets you 5 on 2nd and 10 it's a successful play and certainly shouldn't be graded equally with a back getting 1 yard in that same situation.

 

[Mobinvans]

Not a single back id rather have than Zeke Elliot

His short yardage pickups alone is incredible

 

[jazzcat22]

Short yardage situations skew the YPC a lot too.
How many 3rd a nd 1 or 4th and 1, 2 or 3 yards skew the numbers.

They went for it on 4th down, needed 2 yards, Zeke got 2 yards and a football length. They were not going fo 5, or to break it open. They just wanted the 1st down.

Will anyone knock Emmitt and his YPC. How many times did Irvin get tackled inside the 5 yards line. As he jokes he got tackled at the one, so Emmitt could take it in from there.

I bet Emmitt had half of his TD's from inside the 3 yard line.

 

[Cowboysfandarin]

Realistically the days of 10-12 year career running backs are long over. Most running backs in today's NFL, are gobbled up young, expected to sacrifice everything they got and fade out, or even are forced to retire in under 5 years. Then management just brings in the next young blood. We saw that with Murray and many others, but Murray got greedy. He could have had a long career in Dallas....Zeke is a lucky dude, the Cowboys are an organization that will develop around you and keep you around. I doubt anyone will sustain themselves as long as Emitt did, but still, I could see Zeke in a Cowboys uniform for 8 years or so. I hope Zeke realizes he will fade out of down the road he tried to leave Dallas. RB are not as essential in todays NFL and management views them as a dime a dozen.

 

[erod]

A lot of fans here assume because Zeke has the most rushing yards in the NFL that the Cowboys must be an elite dominant running team.

We aren't...at least not in the way most people think.

If you take the top rushers...and rank them by YARDS PER CARRY...Zeke is only 14th, with an average of 4.7 yards per carry. Lots of guys have better production per carry.

As a team we are 6th in total rushing, and 10th in average per carry.

Our o-line has lacked good health, and at times it is neutralized. With that limitation we are a good rushing team--not a great rushing team.

It's pretty dadgum good when you look at the fronts it has to run against regularly.

Zeke is no fun. That dude runs hard and downhill. He pulverizes defenses by the 4th quarter.

 

[percyhoward]

So using these numbers, which only mean something to you, this means the league as a whole is unsuccessful rushing the ball on 2nd and 10 including 4 of the top 6 rushing teams in terms of total yards.

League average is unsuccessful.

No. Less than league average is unsuccessful. League average is as the name implies.

And again, this isn't my metric, so it obviously meant something to a lot of other people before I even heard of it. Which makes sense, as it's a better way to measure rushing success than yards per carry.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

A lot of fans here assume because Zeke has the most rushing yards in the NFL that the Cowboys must be an elite dominant running team.

We aren't...at least not in the way most people think.

If you take the top rushers...and rank them by YARDS PER CARRY...Zeke is only 14th, with an average of 4.7 yards per carry. Lots of guys have better production per carry.

As a team we are 6th in total rushing, and 10th in average per carry.

Our o-line has lacked good health, and at times it is neutralized. With that limitation we are a good rushing team--not a great rushing team.

first and foremost....4.7 ypc is nothing to sneeze at. specially for a team that relies on running game to set up the pass like we do. Rams have an offense that has a lot of weapons and is a wide open attack...

Barkely is averaging 5.4 and for a rookie that's pretty good, but they are not succeeding...specially since they are not closing out many games trying to run. it would be interesting to see the first 3 quarter stats and break that down by game..... zeke was leaned on many games to close them out and thus hurts his average...

some of the rest don't have enough carries and seem to be situational runners or share the load, like Lindsay who has only had 168 carries.....so it doesn't look like they are leaning on him..so looking at just the rankings doesn't paint the full picture.

I think given we run a predictable offense, run almost on every 2nd and less than 5 and top our hand on when w e are running, Zeke is playing great. it would also be interesting to see how many 8+ in the box defensive fronts have they faced. that's the true measure of a RBs ability to find the seams to run...

 

[DFWJC]

Are they carrying the ball as much as Zeke, because the higher attempts will skew the average.

This.
YPC is only highly relevant when attempts are at least somewhat close.
That's why it was so silly when people used to try to say Felix freaking Jones was elite when he had low carries and high ypc a year or two.

The players that DO have a ton of carries but a higher YPC are Pro Bowl caliber players like Zeke--guys like Barkley and Gurley.
I don't think we are as efficient as other years, but it's not bad.

 

[Fla Cowpoke]

Here is the deal. Our running game is very effective. So effective that teams play us man up in the passing game and commit the extra defender to stop the run. Even so we still have been pretty successful running. Our issue early on was no one could get open consistently for whatever reason.

Since getting Cooper, teams are still trying to play the same way but Cooper is making them pay. It has trickled down to the other receivers because now they are facing players further down the depth chart.

Our run game is not the best in the league but it is still way above average.

 

[Risen Star]

No. Less than league average is unsuccessful. League average is as the name implies.

And again, this isn't my metric, so it obviously meant something to a lot of other people before I even heard of it. Which makes sense, as it's a better way to measure rushing success than yards per carry.

You said....

A successful play gains at least 40% of yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down.

Elliott's Rushing Success Rate
2018 50% (15th)
2017 57% (2nd)
2016 57% (2nd)

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/a-myth-about-our-running-game.423218/#post-8806813

These are your words. In order to be successful, per you and your calculator crowd, a RB must gain at least 6 yards on 2nd and 10. You then provided me with a link that you thought proved your point that showed the league average at 5.3 a carry. 5.3 is less than 6.

If you are not successful what are you? Unsuccessful. So per your numbers and logic the entire league as a whole is unsuccessful running on 2nd and 10, including 4 of the top 6 rushing teams in the league in total yards. In fact, you can be over league average and still fall short of a successful carry.

This conversation bores me. I can not stand number crunchers who think the NFL is played out this way. As if any rational football fan will buy the idea that a RB who gains 5 yards on 2nd and 10 is unsuccessful and graded the same as a RB who gains 1 yard in that same scenario. Both carries are unsuccessful. They count the same. Look, here are the numbers.

Spare me.

I'd love to ask any NFL coach....here's the situation, 2nd and 10...hand off between the tackles, your back gets you 5....was it successful?

 

[Longboysfan]

That's a great way of evaluating it, Percy. It's easy to see the drop off.

Next year I'd love the Cowboys to:
-Get the Bearded one back healthy (knock on wood)
-Get Martin's meniscus fixed (straight-forward)
-Get 20 pounds more heft on Williams (some fat is OK) then let him and Looney fight it out
-Bring in a top tackle via free agency that can push Collins or Smith

I'm with all of this but the Draft is the way to go to get next tackle in here.

 

[Hardline]

All I know is Zeke is putting up numbers that are on pace with the top RBs in the Hall of Fame.
If Zeke plays injury free for 8-10 years he will be there to.

 

[Kevinicus]

It's based on the history of teams converting on that down series or not. An 11-yard run on 2nd and 20 leaves you with 3rd and 9, so it's not surprising that most teams have ended up punting after such a play.

No, it's not surprising, but if I had 2nd and 20, then 3rd and 9 is pretty good and I'd call the 2nd down play a success. The goal of 2nd down would have been to get you in a manageable situation. I get what they're trying to do, but sometimes lumping stats into groups can be misleading for specific circumstances.

 

[percyhoward]

So per your numbers and logic the entire league as a whole is unsuccessful running on 2nd and 10, including 4 of the top 6 rushing teams in the league in total yards.

All I can do is guess, but the average gain of the entire league as a whole is probably where FO draws the line, which is between 5 and 6 yards in that down and distance. And as I said, the other part of it is how often teams convert on 3rd and 5, which is 43.8% of the time.

So a run that gains 5 yards and sets up a 3rd and 5 is slightly below league average, and you're slightly more likely to be punting after your next play than if you'd gained 6 yards (which is slightly above the league average), but even with a 3rd and 4, you're still more likely to punt than convert until it gets down to 3rd and 3. So FO is giving the runner the benefit of the doubt there.

Total rushing yards has as at least much to do with how often you run as with how well you run. The top 5 teams in yards per carry rank an average of 9th in total rushing yards. The top 5 in carries rank an average of 7th.

 

[percyhoward]

No, it's not surprising, but if I had 2nd and 20, then 3rd and 9 is pretty good and I'd call the 2nd down play a success. The goal of 2nd down would have been to get you in a manageable situation. I get what they're trying to do, but sometimes lumping stats into groups can be misleading for specific circumstances.

At the very least, it measures consistency in a way that YPC can't. I remember a few years ago somebody had come up with a "rusher rating," but I don't know what it was based on. There's so much data available now that metrics based on win probability and expected points are more accurate than the ones that everybody's been using for years.

 

[Thomas82]

Our running game is good, not great. Any objective Cowboys fan would have to admit that the 2018 version of our OL cannot be described as dominant.

Tyron Smith was once on his way to a HOF career before injuries made him maybe 70% of what he once was. Zack Martin has played hurt all year. And the loss of Travis Frederick is huge even though Joe Looney has played pretty well for the most part. Connor Williams has at best been below average.

All that to say, our running game is not as dominant as it was 2014-2016. It can still be a big factor, but all the guys who scream every Sunday, “Just run the ball” as if this current patchwork offensive line can impose its will on an opponent is just not realistic.

To me that's proof that Zeke is more than his offensive line.

 

[Cowboysfandarin]

You said....



https://cowboyszone.com/threads/a-myth-about-our-running-game.423218/#post-8806813

These are your words. In order to be successful, per you and your calculator crowd, a RB must gain at least 6 yards on 2nd and 10. You then provided me with a link that you thought proved your point that showed the league average at 5.3 a carry. 5.3 is less than 6.

If you are not successful what are you? Unsuccessful. So per your numbers and logic the entire league as a whole is unsuccessful running on 2nd and 10, including 4 of the top 6 rushing teams in the league in total yards. In fact, you can be over league average and still fall short of a successful carry.

This conversation bores me. I can not stand number crunchers who think the NFL is played out this way. As if any rational football fan will buy the idea that a RB who gains 5 yards on 2nd and 10 is unsuccessful and graded the same as a RB who gains 1 yard in that same scenario. Both carries are unsuccessful. They count the same. Look, here are the numbers.

Spare me.

I'd love to ask any NFL coach....here's the situation, 2nd and 10...hand off between the tackles, your back gets you 5....was it successful?

Good post! No you're not successful getting 5 yards on a 2 and 10. Cowboys do that all the time. Coaches are all about playing percentages, but to achieve those percentages, you have to keep the defense guessing. With Romo at QB, for example, there really was no difference between a 3rd and 10 and a 3rd and 5. 10 yards was nothing to his passing effectiveness. Back in the old days of the NFL, coaches were content with a steady 4 yard chip at the run working on that next 10 yards. Those days are gone. When a team runs on 2 and 10, they are trying to break off a big run. A trap play, a delayed handoff, etc etc. They don't care if the back gets 3-5 yards, that want him to break into the secondary and pickup 10-20.