A Myth About our Running Game

[AbeBeta]

YPC for a running back skews stats more than attempts by far because YPC for a running back can be heavily influenced by long runs.

The only way I would judge a running back would be to remove all 0-yard and negative yardage runs since that means he was hit behind the line of scrimmage and then remove all yardage over 15 yards for any run since that's less about the running back and more about the blocking and/or blown assignments on the defense.

Once you have those runs, then a YPC would be more accurate and you would have a better statistical rating for each running back.

What you argue for is better expressed as median yards per carry.

Still a crap measure.

When a back gets you a yard and an inch when you need a yard on 4th down, that's worth a ton

 

[Bobhaze]

I agree with most everything you said, but I'd prefer to use our #2 for a tight end and then address tackle in free agency. Get someone who is ready, already developed. Then look to draft a premium tackle the following draft.

I agree we need to look at TE. But good draft strategy says you draft for value first, position second. In other words if we are using (hopefully) the 64th pick overall in round two, if there’s a TE available but you have him graded in round 3-4, but a LT or G is available with a higher grade, you don’t “reach” for the TE. Remember Gavin Escobar? Lol.

We will just have to wait and see what talent is available. And yes, a FA tackle may be in order but honestly, most NFL teams don’t allow really good LTs to get away in free agency.

 

[Captain43Crash]

Our running game is good, not great. Any objective Cowboys fan would have to admit that the 2018 version of our OL cannot be described as dominant.

Tyron Smith was once on his way to a HOF career before injuries made him maybe 70% of what he once was. Zack Martin has played hurt all year. And the loss of Travis Frederick is huge even though Joe Looney has played pretty well for the most part. Connor Williams has at best been below average.

All that to say, our running game is not as dominant as it was 2014-2016. It can still be a big factor, but all the guys who scream every Sunday, “Just run the ball” as if this current patchwork offensive line can impose its will on an opponent is just not realistic.

You are so right. With this line and Dak we should be using the pass more on 1st down to loosen up the defense. The defense will be expecting a run so we should be more effective passing. Once we loosen up the defense and get the safeties back then start running, but no, almost every game we end up running 75% of the time on 1st down. This team should be very effective passing on 1st down with every team trying to stop Zek on 1st down.

 

[Zman5]

Many teams also have a short yardage RB so their main RB will look better stat wise.
Those 3rd/4th and one carries by Zeke will skew his YPC average.

 

[Bobhaze]

You are so right. With this line and Dak we should be using the pass more on 1st down to loosen up the defense. The defense will be expecting a run so we should be more effective passing. Once we loosen up the defense and get the safeties back then start running, but no, almost every game we end up running 75% of the time on 1st down. This team should be very effective passing on 1st down with every team trying to stop Zek on 1st down.

I swear it seems as dependable as the sunrise that on the first play of the game for this team, Linehan will call a Zeke straight up dive running play for one yard on first down. Lol.

 

[T-RO]

I swear it seems as dependable as the sunrise that on the first play of the game for this team, Linehan will call a Zeke straight up dive running play for one yard on first down. Lol.

Yeah, I've sure noticed the same.

 

[Bohuntr97]

I'd like to utilize Zeke more in the passing game. Gurley and Saquon are excellent in this. I think Zeke can be effective too, just utilize him.

 

[lukin2006]

 

[Nav22]

B-b-but I thought Zeke is the only reason Dak ever plays well!

 

[blumayne38]

A lot of fans here assume because Zeke has the most rushing yards in the NFL that the Cowboys must be an elite dominant running team.

We aren't...at least not in the way most people think.

If you take the top rushers...and rank them by YARDS PER CARRY...Zeke is only 14th, with an average of 4.7 yards per carry. Lots of guys have better production per carry.

As a team we are 6th in total rushing, and 10th in average per carry.

Our o-line has lacked good health, and at times it is neutralized. With that limitation we are a good rushing team--not a great rushing team.

Zeke has 300 touches this season Rush/receiving only a handful of RB can do that. This team runs to open the pass that should say enough in itself in how great Zeke is

 

[blumayne38]

B-b-but I thought Zeke is the only reason Dak ever plays well!

He is

 

[blumayne38]

The 4th and 1 he got at the end of the philly game says all you need to know about how important Zeke is to the offense

 

[Fan_from_Germany]

In Zeke's first two years, the Cowboys take out Zeke every 3rd or 4th Drive and go with DMC, Morris or Smith. Why is this year not so? I beleive Zeke Needs to Limit his carrys to stay fresh for the postseason.

 

[DasSchnitzel]

YPC for a running back skews stats more than attempts by far because YPC for a running back can be heavily influenced by long runs.

The only way I would judge a running back would be to remove all 0-yard and negative yardage runs since that means he was hit behind the line of scrimmage and then remove all yardage over 15 yards for any run since that's less about the running back and more about the blocking and/or blown assignments on the defense.

Once you have those runs, then a YPC would be more accurate and you would have a better statistical rating for each running back.

The insightful thing here is that you aren't just eliminating outliers, you are eliminating outliers that are fundamentally caused by systemic problems in measurement (blown blocking for negative yardage, blown defense for excessive yardage).

 

[ConstantReboot]

Yeah I mean if you go by the eye test......Zeke looks fine.....the run blocking doesn't. Those days of having wide open lanes numerous times throughout the game.....its rarely happening now.

Because the run selection and formation are too predictable. Everyone knows Dallas is running Zeke up the middle when they have a 2-3 tight end set. Therefore, the crowd the middle with a safety and linebackers.

Our offensive coaches are too stubborn to run Zeke outside the perimeter. Or use RPO more often. All they do is keep running Zeke up the middle all the time. Nothing changes with our offense. Its the main reason why we suck so bad and can't score. Because we only have one run play. That's Zeke up the middle - all the time, everytime.

 

[Cebrin]

Our O Line is obliterated, and he's still effective. I'm more excited that he's still in the upper echelon, without the line to support it. It legitimizes the pick, and shuts the mouths of "anyone can run behind that line".

 

[Melonfeud]

A lot of fans here assume because Zeke has the most rushing yards in the NFL that the Cowboys must be an elite dominant running team.

We aren't...at least not in the way most people think.

If you take the top rushers...and rank them by YARDS PER CARRY...Zeke is only 14th, with an average of 4.7 yards per carry. Lots of guys have better production per carry.

As a team we are 6th in total rushing, and 10th in average per carry.

Our o-line has lacked good health, and at times it is neutralized. With that limitation we are a good rushing team--not a great rushing team.

New Orleans pretty much put the double chock-blocks to his CASING-LINER in that Game

 

[Melonfeud]

Our O Line is obliterated, and he's still effective. I'm more excited that he's still in the upper echelon, without the line to support it. It legitimizes the pick, and shuts the mouths of "anyone can run behind that line".

Oh,Man Alive, do I ever recall hearing ( reading) that from the ocean full of opposition Mo-Fo's

 

[birdwells1]

A successful play gains at least 40% of yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down.

Elliott's Rushing Success Rate
2018 50% (15th)
2017 57% (2nd)
2016 57% (2nd)

Cool stat

 

[blueblood70]

who cares hes top 3 back every year and is in fact Elite as he should be being the top 4 pick in the draft..YPC is skewed by how many times you carry the ball.. its fact like basket ball you shoot 10-15 3s at 48% clip looks good but the guy shooting 40 with a 38% clip is in fact abetter shooter...same thing in all sports...