All about the run

[xwalker]

Kearse is little iffy with that knee, maybe they let him start but mix more Mukuamu, Clark and Cox in there, if the call them up.

Cox is not going to play unless it is at the end of a blowout game.
- Gifford is ahead of Cox on the depth chart. He played "real"snaps on defense this season.
- Cox only played at the end of blowouts.
- Cox will be on the fringe to make the team in 2023.

 

[xwalker]

Broncos, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders rushed for more than 100 yards against them. They lost to the first three and had to go to OT to beat the Raiders. Just sayin'.

The Broncos and Falcons did it with almost no passing game help.

That is my point:
- The opponent had more rushing yards than the Niners in all of those games.
- The only loss when that did not happen was game 1 with Trey Lance at QB.

 

[Gonzomandela01]

Cox is not going to play unless it is at the end of a blowout game.
- Gifford is ahead of Cox on the depth chart. He played "real"snaps on defense this season.
- Cox only played at the end of blowouts.
- Cox will be on the fringe to make the team in 2023.

Thank you Coach.

 

[CATCH17]

I’ve said this all week but I don’t see how we take it away playing only two LB’s.

I’d rather keep a rover on the field like we do.

To many mismatches on their team to have 3 linebackers on the field.

 

[xwalker]

Thank you Coach.

Snaps on offense or defense in 2022:
Jalen Tolbert 89
Jabril Cox 36 (zero in non blowouts)

 

[Gonzomandela01]

Snaps on offense or defense in 2022:
Jalen Tolbert 89
Jabril Cox 36 (zero in non blowouts)

I see you have a high, almost obsessive interest in cox.

 

[xwalker]

I see you have a high, almost obsessive interest in cox.

I have minimal interest in Jabril.
- My interest is in the Jabril fans.
- Especially the Jabril fans that hate players like Tolbert for lack of instant success.

 

[shabazz]

SF only lost 1 game when they had more rushing yards than the opponent.
- That was game 1 with Trey Lance at QB.
- Lance had a 50.3 QB rating in that game.

Of 4 losses, 3 were in the 5 games with their lowest rushing yards.

The opponent only exceeded 100 rushing yards in 5 games this season.

Rushing Yards per Game
- SF averaged 139 yards rushing.
- SF opponents averaged 78 yards rushing.

X , with all the analysis that you've done, based on the findings are you predicting a Cowboys or a Niners win on Sunday?.

“now for those of you in Rio Linda”, I’m asking the man not who he WANTS a to win, I’m asking what his prediction is based on his in depth analysis…..so don’t jump on him if you don’t like the answer

 

[Gonzomandela01]

I have minimal interest in Jabril.
- My interest is in the Jabril fans.
- Especially the Jabril fans that hate players like Tolbert for lack of instant success.

Jabril

clever

 

[shabazz]

Jabril

clever

Oh, das nasty

 

[xwalker]

X , with all the analysis that you've done, based on the findings are you predicting a Cowboys or a Niners win on Sunday?.

“now for those of you in Rio Linda”, I’m asking the man not who he WANTS a to win, I’m asking what his prediction is based on his in depth analysis…..so don’t jump on him if you don’t like the answer

I have considered many stats, have reviewed many games of both teams, have considered the streaks like SF with 11 straight wins and Dallas 4-0 on short weeks this season. I've also reviewed last season's playoff game many times.

My conclusion (drumroll):
Cowboys 50% probability of winning.

 

[MaineBoy]

I’m bummed Kearse not full speed. That hurts is a lot.

 

[Bobhaze]

SF only lost 1 game when they had more rushing yards than the opponent.
- That was game 1 with Trey Lance at QB.
- Lance had a 50.3 QB rating in that game.

Of 4 losses, 3 were in the 5 games with their lowest rushing yards.

The opponent only exceeded 100 rushing yards in 5 games this season.

Rushing Yards per Game
- SF averaged 139 yards rushing.
- SF opponents averaged 78 yards rushing.

If we can slow the run game down…holding it around 120 or less, we have a great chance. That’s a tall order but…If we can hold the niner run game under that, it puts a lot more pressure on Purdy boy. He’s an outstanding rookie QB, but the NFL playoffs are historically a graveyard for rookie QBs- especially if they have to carry their team.

 

[Cowboyny]

Their defensive success vs the run is what surprised me.

I've studied their offense with Shanahan as HC in the past but I didn't realize their defense was only allowing 78 rushing yards per game...

The Cowboys allowed 129 rushing yards per game.

SF allowed the 2nd lowest average rush yards with 3.4 per carry.

They allowed the lowest number of rushing 1st downs.

No team can run on them, where we have to at least keep them honest

 

[TWOK11]

No it isn’t

Playoff games are decided almost exclusively by QB play and TO margin. If your QB has the higher adjusted QBR and you come out even in the turnover department, you win 84% of the time. If you ALSO win the TO battle you win 97% of the time.

 

[xwalker]

No it isn’t

Playoff games are decided almost exclusively by QB play and TO margin. If your QB has the higher adjusted QBR and you come out even in the turnover department, you win 84% of the time. If you ALSO win the TO battle you win 97% of the time.

All the nonsense about rushing does not correlate to winning was shown to be completely wrong in the way it was interpreted by wannabe statistical analysts.

The simple issue is that fans/media don't have the correct stats to show the value of the running game.

• Over-Simplified Example:
  • Two offenses face the same defense and both are held to 50 yards rushing.
  • Against offense A, the defense played "8 in the box" and against offense B the defense played "7 in the box".
  • The running game of offense A had the better running game but you can't "correlate" it unless you have stats on number of men in the box.
  • Even if number of men in the box stats were available, there are many other methods that D-Coordinators use to to improve run defense at the expense of pass defense.
  • The QB's QBR is directly tied to the run offense but very difficult to "correlate" with available stats.
  • The fact that wannbe analysts cannot prove something is true, does not prove that it is not true.
  • i.e. They don't have the ability to show the correlation between the running game and passing game statistically.

Disclaimer: One of my degrees is in Mathematics and I use statistical analysis on a professional basis.

 

[quickccc]

Couldn’t agree more, their whole offense to set up by their run game. Take that away, easier to defend. Can this defense meet the challenge?

Quinn and Cowboys run defense will have to convince me differently ... the Bucs are the worst run game team in the NFL

Shanahan's scheme is a whole different animal.. and it's not because they are overpowering in their OL, but because their run design is so well schemed
and then add dynamic player personnel to it .. .ala McCaffrey and Deebo - and a host of RBs that have came and gone ...

 

[Cowboyny]

Quinn and Cowboys run defense will have to convince me differently ... the Bucs are the worst run game team in the NFL

Shanahan's scheme is a whole different animal.. and it's not because they are overpowering in their OL, but because their run design is so well schemed
and then add dynamic player personnel to it .. .ala McCaffrey and Deebo - and a host of RBs that have came and gone ...

Biggest challenge of the year!

 

[shabazz]

I have considered many stats, have reviewed many games of both teams, have considered the streaks like SF with 11 straight wins and Dallas 4-0 on short weeks this season. I've also reviewed last season's playoff game many times.

My conclusion (drumroll):
Cowboys 50% probability of winning.

Lol…..that was classic but I still think your subconsciously giving the Cowboys at least 5% benefit of the doubt.

again, thanks for your analysis

 

[Whyjerry]

I’ve said this all week but I don’t see how we take it away playing only two LB’s.

Very good point. I think that means LVE and the Ss need to play lights out.