All-time QB Rating - normalized by year

[DFWJC]

No don meredith??

I had Meridith at 32, fwiw

 

[pansophy]

I didn't use a statistical program.
I did no linear regression, etc.
I was just curious and got carried away. lol

I just took the average of the top 15 QB ratings (tried 20 and 10 too) each year dating back only to 1970.
I then took various standard deviations (testing +/- 2, 4, etc wings to the curve) of years before and after that average value to smooth things out.
Then I simply took that standardized value for each year and used it vs a normalized value for 2019.
Things I could do better using this method
--It would be better if I had a couple of more years going forward to be sure 2019 wasn't an anomly (don't think it was) and to also smooth it out as well.
-- I didn't do this for every single player, especially the ones with 2 years or less (don't usually show up in career stats logs anyway) or many of the guys way back in the 40s/50s other than some key ones like Graham, Tittle and few others.
--I used 1970 values for anything older than 1970 so that's probably not fair to really old guys. Graham still ended up on top

I did include Mahomes because I figured people would be curious. But 2 year guys like L-Jax, Darnold, et al will need to wait a year.
Maybe I'll add them

A lot of overlap between our results. Most of the usual suspects in the top 20.

All in good fun

Yeah, interesting. I thought about how to apply linear regression but z-scores seemed more straight forward. Our results follow the rule that if a signal is there then a lot of methods can reveal it.

 

[MarcusRock]

Okay, so there was QBR data from 2006 to 2018 from what I already scrapped. No 2019 on this resource and don't have time to add it from ESPN. But here is your top 100 using the same method for these years. Notably Dak goes up quite a lot.
+------+--------------------+--------+------+-----------+----------+---------+-------+
| Rank | Player | QBRz | Att | FirstYear | LastYear | Seasons | nQBR |
+------+--------------------+--------+------+-----------+----------+---------+-------+
| 9 | Dak Prescott | 1.051 | 1475 | 2016 | 2018 | 3 | 66.92 |
| 10 | Tony Romo | 0.966 | 4331 | 2006 | 2015 | 10 | 65.44 |

Oh, NOW you've done it. Thread melting down in 3, 2, 1 ...

 

[pansophy]

No don meredith??

Meredith is 116. But again, its just a time adjusted passer rating still containing all the advantages and flaws of judging a QB on passer rating alone.

 

[pansophy]

Oh, NOW you've done it. Thread melting down in 3, 2, 1 ...

I don't know I find it reasonable. If you look at passer rating then Romo is like 20 spots ahead, but the QBR factors in running which is what evens it out. Dak had a solid showing in QBR last year too.

I would be happy if Dak signed the 5 year deal being reported today. He won't, but I'd be happy with that. In a few years it won't seem so crazy and that's probably why he wants a 4 year deal.

 

[pansophy]

Oh, and fwiw Andy Dalton is 101 on the passer rating list.

 

[GMO415]

timing Troy okayed with what 20 HOF if you include all players coaches and what not.. ES was the star of the team followed by OL, MI, Jimmy, and then Troy..I loved troy but his RS numbers are putrid and ES carried this team..yes in the playoffs Troy did step up but had it not been for ES and the rest for the HOF , Troy may have never had the success he did, he could have been Carson wentz..Lots of college Heisman winners went top 5 and failed because of the team they ended up on, coaches they had etc etc..

Looking at these number, numbers over all ,tells me you put Romo on those 90s team they have the same success..this was the OP point..I for sure saw greatness in Troy but many of the DC 90s players who got in had less overall numbers then their counterparts, come whom didnt get in the HOF right away..

I'm not trying to highjack this thread, but an interesting thread idea would be put together your all time Cowboys team. Just how many would put Romo as their starting QB when you have two HOFs to choose from.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Danny White at 25.

Really sad how forgotten he is outside of the Cowboys fandom.

he did take the team to three straight NFCCG and we came up short. I think everytime to the eventual superbowl winner.... some really close games....

 

[blueblood70]

I'm not trying to highjack this thread, but an interesting thread idea would be put together your all time Cowboys team. Just how many would put Romo as their starting QB when you have two HOFs to choose from.

thats a tough one Im a huge Romo fan but might have to use the analytics above and take into account even though I never watched any live games or reruns of Staubach's play to have a visual..

I still believe Romo could play on any of those SB teams and they dont lose a beat just look at coaching and other HOF players the other QBs got to play with consistently and having the doomsday defense or defense and Sts of the 90s Cowboys with Jimmy etc.. I believe if Parcells stayed 2-3 more seasons, we would have broken through.. Romo was beyond talented IMO better then Dak but I cant pick him over Staubach or Troy if I had to put my money wher emy fingers are but tyuly believe romo had the talent and minset to play on those teams and it wouldn't change the outcomes..

I dont feel that way about Dak

I mean Its
staubach
troy
Romo

for my top 3 DC QBs of all time..Daks still TBD only 4 seaosns in but hes about 5 right now

 

[pansophy]

thats a tough one Im a huge Romo fan but might have to use the analytics above and take into account even though I never watched any live games or reruns of Staubach's play to have a visual..

I still believe Romo could play on any of those SB teams and they dont lose a beat just look at coaching and other HOF players the other QBs got to play with consistently and having the doomsday defense or defense and Sts of the 90s Cowboys with Jimmy etc.. I believe if Parcells stayed 2-3 more seasons, we would have broken through.. Romo was beyond talented IMO better then Dak but I cant pick him over Staubach or Troy if I had to put my money wher emy fingers are but tyuly believe romo had the talent and minset to play on those teams and it wouldn't change the outcomes..

I dont feel that way about Dak

I mean Its
staubach
troy
Romo

for my top 3 DC QBs of all time..Daks still TBD only 4 seaosns in but hes about 5 right now

I tend to agree with this assessment. Aikman was perfect for the system he played in -- incredibly accurate and great timing. But force Aikman to have to create on his own he started to get in trouble. In his later years when he was playing behind a bad OL he would get booed. So that is an area that Romo and Staubach clearly outshined Aikman. Aikman definitely played his best when the pressure was on, and Romo probably pushed harder than he should have when there was pressure. Had he had early success and not had to try to do some much to win to make up for bad defensive play, maybe he didn't do that so much.

Depending on the circumstances I might choose Romo over Aikman, but Staubach was our best QB IMO. Dak really impressed me on how much his throwing motion and accuracy improved at the beginning of last season. Would have been nice to see a full year of it.

 

[America's Cowboy]

Okay, so there was QBR data from 2006 to 2018 from what I already scrapped. No 2019 on this resource and don't have time to add it from ESPN. But here is your top 100 using the same method for these years. Notably Dak goes up quite a lot.

+------+--------------------+--------+------+-----------+----------+---------+-------+
| Rank | Player | QBRz | Att | FirstYear | LastYear | Seasons | nQBR |
+------+--------------------+--------+------+-----------+----------+---------+-------+
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | 1.825 | 580 | 2018 | 2018 | 1 | 80.40 |
| 2 | Peyton Manning | 1.441 | 5047 | 2006 | 2015 | 9 | 73.72 |
| 3 | Tom Brady | 1.369 | 6816 | 2006 | 2018 | 12 | 72.46 |
| 4 | Deshaun Watson | 1.368 | 709 | 2017 | 2018 | 2 | 72.45 |
| 5 | Drew Brees | 1.279 | 7974 | 2006 | 2018 | 13 | 70.89 |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 1.143 | 6201 | 2008 | 2018 | 11 | 68.52 |
| 7 | Aaron Rodgers | 1.071 | 5433 | 2008 | 2018 | 11 | 67.28 |
| 8 | Jeff Garcia | 1.065 | 891 | 2006 | 2008 | 3 | 67.17 |
| 9 | Dak Prescott | 1.051 | 1475 | 2016 | 2018 | 3 | 66.92 |
| 10 | Tony Romo | 0.966 | 4331 | 2006 | 2015 | 10 | 65.44 |
| 11 | David Garrard | 0.897 | 1983 | 2006 | 2010 | 5 | 64.24 |
| 12 | Russell Wilson | 0.894 | 3261 | 2012 | 2018 | 7 | 64.20 |
| 13 | Ben Roethlisberger | 0.871 | 6605 | 2006 | 2018 | 13 | 63.79 |
| 14 | Kurt Warner | 0.775 | 1730 | 2006 | 2009 | 4 | 62.12 |
| 15 | Philip Rivers | 0.764 | 6970 | 2006 | 2018 | 13 | 61.92 |
| 16 | Carson Wentz | 0.762 | 1448 | 2016 | 2018 | 3 | 61.89 |
| 17 | Andrew Luck | 0.689 | 3290 | 2012 | 2018 | 6 | 60.63 |
| 18 | Jameis Winston | 0.612 | 1922 | 2015 | 2018 | 4 | 59.28 |
| 19 | Matt Schaub | 0.553 | 3100 | 2007 | 2015 | 8 | 58.25 |
| 20 | Carson Palmer | 0.483 | 5366 | 2006 | 2017 | 12 | 57.03 |
| 21 | Chad Pennington | 0.456 | 1295 | 2006 | 2009 | 4 | 56.56 |
| 22 | Cam Newton | 0.427 | 3891 | 2011 | 2018 | 8 | 56.06 |
| 23 | Kirk Cousins | 0.380 | 2654 | 2013 | 2018 | 6 | 55.24 |
| 24 | Colin Kaepernick | 0.378 | 1687 | 2012 | 2016 | 5 | 55.22 |
| 25 | Vince Young | 0.365 | 1268 | 2006 | 2011 | 5 | 54.97 |
| 26 | Eli Manning | 0.362 | 7218 | 2006 | 2018 | 13 | 54.92 |
| 27 | Donovan McNabb | 0.361 | 2431 | 2006 | 2011 | 6 | 54.92 |
| 28 | Marcus Mariota | 0.272 | 1605 | 2015 | 2018 | 4 | 53.36 |
| 29 | Matthew Stafford | 0.259 | 5405 | 2009 | 2018 | 10 | 53.14 |
| 30 | Teddy Bridgewater | 0.257 | 849 | 2014 | 2015 | 2 | 53.09 |
| 31 | Tyrod Taylor | 0.255 | 1321 | 2015 | 2018 | 4 | 53.07 |
| 32 | Matt Moore | 0.242 | 953 | 2007 | 2017 | 6 | 52.85 |
| 33 | Joe Flacco | 0.238 | 5670 | 2008 | 2018 | 11 | 52.77 |
| 34 | Brett Favre | 0.194 | 2559 | 2006 | 2010 | 5 | 52.01 |
| 35 | Steve McNair | 0.174 | 673 | 2006 | 2007 | 2 | 51.66 |
| 36 | Andy Dalton | 0.168 | 3921 | 2011 | 2018 | 8 | 51.56 |
| 37 | Shaun Hill | 0.153 | 1167 | 2007 | 2014 | 5 | 51.29 |
| 38 | Jay Cutler | 0.141 | 4920 | 2006 | 2017 | 12 | 51.09 |
| 39 | Jake Locker | 0.128 | 709 | 2011 | 2014 | 4 | 50.85 |
| 40 | Seneca Wallace | 0.128 | 711 | 2006 | 2011 | 5 | 50.85 |
| 41 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 0.120 | 4150 | 2008 | 2018 | 11 | 50.71 |
| 42 | Josh Freeman | 0.106 | 1873 | 2009 | 2012 | 4 | 50.48 |
| 43 | Kyle Boller | 0.027 | 506 | 2006 | 2009 | 3 | 49.09 |
| 44 | Matt Cassel | -0.007 | 2381 | 2008 | 2016 | 8 | 48.50 |
| 45 | Alex Smith | -0.013 | 4776 | 2006 | 2018 | 12 | 48.41 |
| 46 | Mitchell Trubisky | -0.046 | 764 | 2017 | 2018 | 2 | 47.82 |
| 47 | Jason Campbell | -0.104 | 2499 | 2006 | 2013 | 8 | 46.83 |
| 48 | Nick Foles | -0.128 | 1581 | 2012 | 2018 | 7 | 46.40 |
| 49 | Case Keenum | -0.143 | 1767 | 2013 | 2018 | 5 | 46.14 |
| 50 | Matt Hasselbeck | -0.144 | 3069 | 2006 | 2015 | 8 | 46.12 |
| 51 | Kyle Orton | -0.182 | 2082 | 2007 | 2014 | 6 | 45.46 |
| 52 | Matt Leinart | -0.190 | 566 | 2006 | 2009 | 3 | 45.32 |
| 53 | Kevin Kolb | -0.196 | 721 | 2009 | 2012 | 4 | 45.21 |
| 54 | Ryan Tannehill | -0.218 | 2911 | 2012 | 2018 | 6 | 44.84 |
| 55 | Jake Delhomme | -0.232 | 1401 | 2006 | 2010 | 5 | 44.59 |
| 56 | Brian Hoyer | -0.239 | 1156 | 2012 | 2016 | 5 | 44.47 |
| 57 | Joey Harrington | -0.245 | 736 | 2006 | 2007 | 2 | 44.36 |
| 58 | Michael Vick | -0.273 | 1862 | 2006 | 2015 | 7 | 43.88 |
| 59 | Brock Osweiler | -0.282 | 1135 | 2015 | 2018 | 4 | 43.71 |
| 60 | Derek Carr | -0.321 | 2800 | 2014 | 2018 | 5 | 43.05 |
| 61 | Josh McCown | -0.330 | 1760 | 2007 | 2018 | 8 | 42.88 |
| 62 | Robert Griffin | -0.340 | 1210 | 2012 | 2016 | 4 | 42.70 |
| 63 | Sam Bradford | -0.347 | 2924 | 2010 | 2018 | 7 | 42.59 |
| 64 | Jared Goff | -0.378 | 1243 | 2016 | 2018 | 3 | 42.04 |
| 65 | Marc Bulger | -0.392 | 1653 | 2006 | 2009 | 4 | 41.81 |
| 66 | Kerry Collins | -0.395 | 1179 | 2006 | 2011 | 6 | 41.75 |
| 67 | Christian Ponder | -0.429 | 1013 | 2011 | 2013 | 3 | 41.16 |
| 68 | Blake Bortles | -0.432 | 2632 | 2014 | 2018 | 5 | 41.10 |
| 69 | Colt McCoy | -0.459 | 867 | 2010 | 2018 | 4 | 40.64 |
| 70 | Chad Henne | -0.513 | 1942 | 2009 | 2014 | 6 | 39.69 |
| 71 | Geno Smith | -0.517 | 810 | 2013 | 2014 | 2 | 39.62 |
| 72 | Mark Sanchez | -0.522 | 2267 | 2009 | 2015 | 6 | 39.54 |
| 73 | Mike Glennon | -0.524 | 759 | 2013 | 2017 | 3 | 39.50 |
| 74 | Jon Kitna | -0.525 | 1595 | 2006 | 2010 | 4 | 39.48 |
| 75 | Bruce Gradkowski | -0.572 | 635 | 2006 | 2010 | 3 | 38.66 |
| 76 | Derek Anderson | -0.593 | 1656 | 2006 | 2018 | 8 | 38.30 |
| 77 | Damon Huard | -0.594 | 657 | 2006 | 2008 | 3 | 38.28 |
| 78 | Trent Edwards | -0.595 | 826 | 2007 | 2009 | 3 | 38.26 |
| 79 | Brady Quinn | -0.605 | 542 | 2008 | 2012 | 3 | 38.09 |
| 80 | Jacoby Brissett | -0.656 | 524 | 2016 | 2017 | 2 | 37.20 |
| 81 | JP Losman | -0.699 | 708 | 2006 | 2008 | 3 | 36.46 |
| 82 | Tarvaris Jackson | -0.703 | 1032 | 2006 | 2011 | 5 | 36.38 |
| 83 | Trevor Siemian | -0.733 | 835 | 2016 | 2017 | 2 | 35.86 |
| 84 | Drew Stanton | -0.811 | 569 | 2009 | 2017 | 4 | 34.51 |
| 85 | Kellen Clemens | -0.875 | 583 | 2007 | 2013 | 3 | 33.40 |
| 86 | David Carr | -0.880 | 578 | 2006 | 2007 | 2 | 33.30 |
| 87 | Rex Grossman | -0.892 | 1358 | 2006 | 2011 | 5 | 33.10 |
| 88 | Brandon Weeden | -0.947 | 784 | 2012 | 2013 | 2 | 32.15 |
| 89 | Daunte Culpepper | -1.090 | 592 | 2006 | 2009 | 4 | 29.65 |
| 90 | EJ Manuel | -1.182 | 521 | 2013 | 2015 | 3 | 28.05 |
| 91 | Brad Johnson | -1.189 | 517 | 2006 | 2008 | 2 | 27.92 |
| 92 | Blaine Gabbert | -1.238 | 1491 | 2011 | 2018 | 7 | 27.08 |
| 93 | John Skelton | -1.293 | 602 | 2010 | 2012 | 3 | 26.11 |
| 94 | JaMarcus Russell | -1.368 | 680 | 2007 | 2009 | 3 | 24.81 |
+------+--------------------+--------+------+-----------+----------+---------+-------+

QBR is definitely the more accurate QB rating since it puts everything a QB does into account. If you were to add the 2019 QBR ratings, Dak would move up even higher than #9 overall.

 

[GMO415]

thats a tough one Im a huge Romo fan but might have to use the analytics above and take into account even though I never watched any live games or reruns of Staubach's play to have a visual..

I still believe Romo could play on any of those SB teams and they dont lose a beat just look at coaching and other HOF players the other QBs got to play with consistently and having the doomsday defense or defense and Sts of the 90s Cowboys with Jimmy etc.. I believe if Parcells stayed 2-3 more seasons, we would have broken through.. Romo was beyond talented IMO better then Dak but I cant pick him over Staubach or Troy if I had to put my money wher emy fingers are but tyuly believe romo had the talent and minset to play on those teams and it wouldn't change the outcomes..

I dont feel that way about Dak

I mean Its
staubach
troy
Romo

for my top 3 DC QBs of all time..Daks still TBD only 4 seaosns in but hes about 5 right now

I don't think Romo would be on Jimmy's team.

 

[aikemirv]

I don't think Romo would be on Jimmy's team.

Interesting - would it be that .07 int's per hundred passes that makes you think that?

 

[blueblood70]

I don't think Romo would be on Jimmy's team.

bullspit

 

[Established1971]

As the OP mentioned, I did this a few days ago using a different methodology.

Here are the results
https://cowboyszone.com/threads/nfl-all-time-passer-rating-leaders-time-adjusted.458041/

Top 20

1. Graham
2. Young
3. Montana
4. Mahomes
5. Dawson
6. Jorgenson
7. Anderson
8. Rodgers
9. Staubach
10. Starr
11. Tarkenton
12. P Manning
13. Warner
14. Wilson
15. Romo
16. Brady
17. Brees
18. Unitas
19. Fouts
20. Marino

Jorgenson is another qb injured in 1972 who could have stopped the Dolphins from going 17-0. Dolphins missed Staubach because he missed the whole regular season, they also faced off against Billy Kilmer in SB7 because of Jorgensons injury. Kilmer got all of 0 points for the Skins that day. So going by this chart, they dodged the 6th and 9th best qb's of all time

 

[morat1959]

No way this is accurate. Dak’s gotta be #1. Pay the man! Mortgage the franchise. He’ll put the team on his back and carry us to many SB wins.

 

[DFWJC]

bullspit

That guy says some really preposterously silly stuff.
But at least he's consistent!

 

[Blake]

Aikman played for two major Div 1 teams in college. He was drafted #1 overall. He won 3 world titles and is in the HOF.

Tony.......a joke compared to Aikman. Not even in the same league. Tony will NEVER be in the HOF. Never came close to a SB, let alone winning one.

He also was a Superbowl MVP.

 

[Blake]

I don't think Romo would be on Jimmy's team.

Romo lucked into a starting spot because he happened to be on the roster of a dysfunctional franchise.

 

[DFWJC]

thats a tough one Im a huge Romo fan but might have to use the analytics above and take into account even though I never watched any live games or reruns of Staubach's play to have a visual..

I still believe Romo could play on any of those SB teams and they dont lose a beat just look at coaching and other HOF players the other QBs got to play with consistently and having the doomsday defense or defense and Sts of the 90s Cowboys with Jimmy etc.. I believe if Parcells stayed 2-3 more seasons, we would have broken through.. Romo was beyond talented IMO better then Dak but I cant pick him over Staubach or Troy if I had to put my money wher emy fingers are but tyuly believe romo had the talent and minset to play on those teams and it wouldn't change the outcomes..

I dont feel that way about Dak

I mean Its
staubach
troy
Romo

for my top 3 DC QBs of all time..Daks still TBD only 4 seaosns in but hes about 5 right now

If you have Dak at 5 already, that's pretty generous.
Not debating it, but just saying the Cowboys have a LOT of really very good to great QBs in their history.
But yeah, he's in that 5-7 range most likely...the other 6 being White. Staubach, Romo, Aikman, Morton, Merideth...in no order.
Lebaron was decent too but only played 4 years and ran for his life the whole time.