All-time QB Rating - normalized by year

blueblood70

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If you have Dak at 5 already, that's pretty generous.
Not debating it, but just saying the Cowboys have a LOT of really very good to great QBs in their history.
But yeah, he's in that 5-7 range most likely...the other 6 being White. Staubach, Romo, Aikman, Morton, Merideth...in no order.
Lebaron was decent too but only played 4 years and ran for his life the whole time.
giving him credit for playing so well as rookie when he was supposed to be 3rd string and improving each season and a wining record and 2 playoff appearances and a playoff win in his first 4 seasons..thats pretty good its truly TBD but ill put him 5th with what we know already but can be moved down if needed..
 

DFWJC

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giving him credit for playing so well as rookie when he was supposed to be 3rd string and improving each season and a wining record and 2 playoff appearances and a playoff win in his first 4 seasons..thats pretty good its truly TBD but ill put him 5th with what we know already but can be moved down if needed..
Decent QBs are playing longer now
Cowboys QBs, for the most part, have not had unusally long careers. For that reason, and the fact that he plays in the modern era, If Dak stays healthy he will probably become Dallas all-time leader in passing yards.
 

aikemirv

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People forget Romo was a turn over machine. Jimmy couldn't stand stupid players. Romo didn't mature until much later in his career. Jimmy couldn't wait that long.

Your perception is not reality!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_int_perc_career.htm

Int's per game - AIkman -.75 - Romo .82 - per hundred passes Romo was better than Aikman!

Fumbles lost per game - AIkman .255 - Romo .276

People just can't think for themselves - they believe the narrative - It never gets old sheeple!
 

blueblood70

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People forget Romo was a turn over machine. Jimmy couldn't stand stupid players. Romo didn't mature until much later in his career. Jimmy couldn't wait that long.
less ints and 40% more TDs then Troy..funny how people think romo was turnover machine and it was NOT TRUE..Romos numbers blow troys out of the water IE Career TD-INT ratio.. troys had seasons where he had 13td and 12ints..wow HOF material right there .. give it arrest Peyton and BillP saw the greatness in Romo..when SP left for NO he offered a 3rd round pick to the Dc for Romo and they said no ..Brees was there 2nd choice LOL think about that!

Only Bullspit narratives see romos career that way..he was not a TPO machine..Eli had many more TOs and won SBs, its team game, Winston a TPO Mahine and now backup fighting to be a starter again.. Romo never looked back after getting the job..see the difference, right Steve Walsh was sought after by ole jimmy, Romo was way better then Walsh..Romo had average to poor coaching and had a lot of team disappointments..give it a rest..
 

GMO415

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DFWJC

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People forget Romo was a turn over machine. Jimmy couldn't stand stupid players. Romo didn't mature until much later in his career. Jimmy couldn't wait that long.
Romo turned the ball over less than Aikman, believe it not.
His issue early on was that he'd have that one or two games a season where he'd have several.
But on average his rate was lower than both Aikman and Staubach.
Not as good as they were but actually turned it over less.
 

gjkoeppen

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I saw someone make an attempt to generate an all-time QB Rating ranking taking into account the era that they played. I really liked the effort, and rather than poke holes in the method I thought I would give it my own shot. Poke away.

Here is what I did.
1. I scrapped all the passing data from 1932 to 2019 from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/
2. QBs had to make 50 attempts in the season to be included for the year.
3. I created a Z score passer rating for each player based on the season average passer rating and standard deviation. Z-scores are common ways to compare scores on different scales. Comparing QB ratings across eras, or even seasons, is like comparing scores on different scales.
4. I then calculated an average Z score for each player based on all the seasons they played and then converted that Z score back to a passer rating based on 2019 numbers. So what this does in effect is say, given how much better Staubach was from his peers based on each season he played, what would his passer rating look like to be equally better than his peers in 2019.
5. To make the final list the player had to have 500 lifetime attempts.

What this list can't do is adjust for the offensive system, some of which optimize for passer rating while others don't. That's always true though even when comparing players in the same year. Okay here is your top 100 all time.

My first question is since the NFL didn't start the passer rating until 1973 and they have never given out the actual formula used to get those ratings how did you come up with any modified passer rating that can be as reliable as the original formula. I went to your link and they don't list passer ratings as one of their categories. They do show all sorts of QB stats going all the way back to 1920 but passer rating isn't one of them.
 

TheHerd

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Awesome work on this list. My only pushback, and I have no idea how to incorporate this, is that since it's career based it punishes QBs like Troy who came into awful situations and were immediately thrown into the starting fire, and also those who hung on a few years too long. Maybe take the top 7 years or something like that? I'd be curious to see if there was much shakeup doing it that way.
 

TheHerd

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My first question is since the NFL didn't start the passer rating until 1973 and they have never given out the actual formula used to get those ratings how did you come up with any modified passer rating that can be as reliable as the original formula. I went to your link and they don't list passer ratings as one of their categories. They do show all sorts of QB stats going all the way back to 1920 but passer rating isn't one of them.
The NFL passer rating formula is public,. QBR is what they don't divulge I believe.

From wiki:
The NFL passer rating formula includes four variables: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. Each of those variables is scaled to a value between 0 and 2.375, with 1.0 being statistically average (based on league data between 1960–1970).
The four separate calculations can be expressed in the following equations:

d0cf9b3484a1bd6e8b21d985ca392fe003a65cfa


3864e4934d831230be43ceb64ad940776f314024

8783a051cb0c490058e607291976288210839be2


53b626cff6ce1beba0c6bf3c02aca666a9f3a697


where

ATT = Number of passing attempts
COMP = Number of completions
YDS = Passing yards
TD = Touchdown passes
INT = Interceptions
If the result of any calculation is greater than 2.375, it is set to 2.375. If the result is a negative number, it is set to zero.

Then, the above calculations are used to complete the passer rating:

74bf3853aaebfe14e792e4a57b891b7df933e800
 

DFWJC

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My first question is since the NFL didn't start the passer rating until 1973 and they have never given out the actual formula used to get those ratings how did you come up with any modified passer rating that can be as reliable as the original formula. I went to your link and they don't list passer ratings as one of their categories. They do show all sorts of QB stats going all the way back to 1920 but passer rating isn't one of them.
It really is a known formula.

It's that ESPN QBR that adds some interpretation into the equation...and turns any running into value like the player is Emmit Smith.
 

pansophy

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My first question is since the NFL didn't start the passer rating until 1973 and they have never given out the actual formula used to get those ratings how did you come up with any modified passer rating that can be as reliable as the original formula. I went to your link and they don't list passer ratings as one of their categories. They do show all sorts of QB stats going all the way back to 1920 but passer rating isn't one of them.
The formula for passer rating is known, which is the first list. The second list is QBR, and since each play is graded, you can’t go back and calculate it without looking at each play. QBR only goes back to 2005 I think.

But in both cases I just grabbed the data from the page. I didn’t calculate the passer ratings, I just converted them to z-scores.
 

gjkoeppen

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The NFL passer rating formula is public,. QBR is what they don't divulge I believe.

From wiki:
The NFL passer rating formula includes four variables: completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. Each of those variables is scaled to a value between 0 and 2.375, with 1.0 being statistically average (based on league data between 1960–1970).
The four separate calculations can be expressed in the following equations:

d0cf9b3484a1bd6e8b21d985ca392fe003a65cfa


3864e4934d831230be43ceb64ad940776f314024

8783a051cb0c490058e607291976288210839be2


53b626cff6ce1beba0c6bf3c02aca666a9f3a697


where

ATT = Number of passing attempts
COMP = Number of completions
YDS = Passing yards
TD = Touchdown passes
INT = Interceptions
If the result of any calculation is greater than 2.375, it is set to 2.375. If the result is a negative number, it is set to zero.

Then, the above calculations are used to complete the passer rating:

74bf3853aaebfe14e792e4a57b891b7df933e800

I was going by every time someone from the league office has been asked about the formula they always said something like some guy in an office has that and he doesn't talk to anyone, not even us. I always took that they they didn't make the formula public. I remember Tony Dungy on SNF asking goodell that one time and that was the type of answer he gave.
.
 

TheHerd

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I was going by every time someone from the league office has been asked about the formula they always said something like some guy in an office has that and he doesn't talk to anyone, not even us. I always took that they they didn't make the formula public. I remember Tony Dungy on SNF asking goodell that one time and that was the type of answer he gave.
.
I think that's the QBR.
 

Coy

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People forget Romo was a turn over machine. Jimmy couldn't stand stupid players. Romo didn't mature until much later in his career. Jimmy couldn't wait that long.

hahaha, turnover machine hahaha, better int % than Aikman, Favre, Marino, Warner and Eli to name a few, but hey, It's fun to bash on Romo, he sucked big time hahaha.
 
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