Am I alone? I believe this team will go to the SB if we stay healthy

[LandryFan]

Other than health I have few concerns about the offense.

IMO it's a SB-quality offense.

Defense is another story...

3 areas of major concern:

1. Somehow they need to get at minimum 40 sacks out of this defense.

2. They need to be better than average in the yards-given-up-per-attempt category.

3. They need to be within the top--20 in turnovers created.

Hit those marks with this offense and you have a solid SB contender.

If the defense falls flat you're probably looking at a 9-7 squad that doesn't get beyond its first playoff game.

Very reasonable take.

 

[percyhoward]

This caught my attention. These are the Cowboys' defensive passer ratings and W-L records.

2010
first 11 games: 101.4 (3-8)
last 5 games: 75.2 (3-2)

2011
first 11 games: 80.8 (7-4)
last 5 games: 105.5 (1-4)

 

[JoeBoBBY]

Judging from Vegas odds, it looks like the Cowboys are being placed in the 2nd tier of NFC teams.

1st tier - Seattle, Green Bay, Carolina

2nd tier - Arizona, Dallas, Minnesota

(Irrelevent tier - Commanders)

I don't think Carolina carries over the momentum.....
I don't think Minny is all that...

I would put AZ in the first tier.

I would put Dallas somewhere with Minny...and give them a slight edge over Minny, because of Romo...We are better then the Skins, but not by much....

 

[percyhoward]

I think it's easier to field a good defense than it is a good offense.

Counting regular season and playoffs, Dallas has found a way to be the only team that's allowed 90.0 or above each of the last four years.

 

[JoeBoBBY]

Counting regular season and playoffs, Dallas has found a way to be the only team that's allowed 90.0 or above each of the last four years.

and 30% of those scores are by the opposing offense on their first possession of the ball in OT...

 

[School]

I wish it were simply a strategy, or formula, but it was really just great pass defense. The 2009 Saints (#3) and 2010 Packers (#1) were among the league's best in defensive passer rating. Efficiency -- not yards -- is what wins games. In 2015, Dallas was #5 in the league in passing yards allowed, but 20th in DPR. If those rankings had been reversed, we'd have challenged for the division last year.

Defensive Passer Rating (Opposing QB's rating vs. Defense)
The first number includes all games in regular and postseason. The number in parentheses is postseason only.
SB winner's DPR
2010 Packers 67.3 (67.8)
2011 Giants 85.5 (83.1)
2012 Ravens 78.6 (72.4)
2013 Seahawks 65.1 (73.5)
2014 Patriots 82.3 (73.0)
2015 Broncos 76.2 (66.3)
AVG: 75.8
Playoff avg: 72.7
Cowboys' DPR
2010 92.8
2011 88.4
2012 94.7
2013 96.0
2014 90.4
2015 94.2
AVG: 92.8
Playoff avg: 104.8

Boy those numbers really say it all. The most depressing part is how the defense manages to get even worse in the postseason when all the Superbowl winners' defenses step up.

It also highlights how flukey that 2011 Giants team was. They were also the only team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl with a negative point differential. I guess that means there's hope?

 

[percyhoward]

Boy those numbers really say it all. The most depressing part is how the defense manages to get even worse in the postseason when all the Superbowl winners' defenses step up.

It also highlights how flukey that 2011 Giants team was. They were also the only team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl with a negative point differential. I guess that means there's hope?

Whether it happens in the regular season or playoffs, we're just going to have to play better defense. The only thing that separated the Cowboys from the Giants in 2011 was the way their defenses finished the season.

Passer Rating in last four games, 2011
Dallas
offense 113.2
defense 104.7
diff +8.5

Giants
offense 103.3
defense 83.1
diff +20.2

 

[fortdick]

We are more liklyy to go 4-12 again than winning the SB. This thread is ridiculous.

It must be terrible to be a fan of this team and think so poorly of them and their prospects. How people can be so negative when things are so bright, I can;t understand. It must be that they prefer to not get their hopes up, so they won't ever be disappointed.

What a terrible way to live life.

 

[fortdick]

I will just say our chances are better than some and not as good as others.

I have to admire a man that will take a bold position and make a public stand!







Do you know any?

 

[skinsscalper]

It must be terrible to be a fan of this team and think so poorly of them and their prospects. How people can be so negative when things are so bright, I can;t understand. It must be that they prefer to not get their hopes up, so they won't ever be disappointed.

What a terrible way to live life.

It's a coward's stance. Nothing to lose when you spend life whining like a...................well, you know.

 

[Jstopper]

You sound ridiculous. Our two starting DE's are suspended for the first 4 games. So your theory just got destroyed right there. Predicting anything beyond the first 4 games is a crap shoot. Both DE's could be suspended further by then or half our team could be injured by the time we get to that point.

Romo is two years older and two years more brittle then he was in 2014. Or did you forget about last year? Witten is older, Scandric is coming off major surgery, Dez Bryant has a foot problem no one is sure he will fully recover from. Comparing 2016 to 2014 is ridiculous they were totally different teams. The only fans that bother doing it is homers that want to find any simple way to try to believe that we can easily duplicate that kind of success and wave the pom poms.

And although I think the run game could be more dynamic than 2014 any team would be hard pressed to have a better offense or run game then that team did. We would be lucky to get back to that level.

You don't know if Lawrence is gone for 4 games in case you forgot he is doing an appeal. It's ridiculous to say they may be gone for more games after that. And what we have left is better than what lined up for us at DE in 2014 so again I don't know what negative colored glasses you have on but sure okay. And who says Dez isn't going to come back the same? Julio Jones just had a career year coming off the exact same injury. Romo back is better now than it was in 2014 coming off the surgery so explain how he is more brittle? You can belief the worst case scenario for everything if you want, I'll pass on that unrealistic outcome

 

[fortdick]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...tans-cowboys-rams-returning-to-power-football

Read and weep haters

 

[Joe Realist]

you are not one but maybe three or four? I see 8-8.

 

[big dog cowboy]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...tans-cowboys-rams-returning-to-power-football

Read and weep haters

Nice read.

 

[fortdick]

you are not one but maybe three or four? I see 8-8.

I expect you to go all mea culpa once they win the division

 

[Risen Star]

This just feels different.

 

[KJJ]

This just feels different.

That's been a popular one over the years.

 

[Risen Star]

That's been a popular one over the years.

Every summer.

We live the same year over and over. They just don't realize it. The tide will turn when we should fire Garrett and blow everything up by about Halloween.

 

[AsthmaField]

So if they were saying that about the Cowboys last year, aren't expectations of this year just as high with improvements in many areas?

Is that a serious question? Do you actually think the media expectations wouldn't be higher for a team that went 12-4 and barely lost the divisional round playoff game at frigid Lambeau Field, as their expectations for a 4-12 team who picked 4th overall in the draft?

Of course expectations aren't as high for 2016 as they were for 2015. When talking about the expectations for this season, why go back and find two articles from before last season?

 

[JoeKing]

Is that a serious question? Do you actually think the media expectations wouldn't be higher for a team that went 12-4 and barely lost the divisional round playoff game at frigid Lambeau Field, as their expectations for a 4-12 team who picked 4th overall in the draft?

Of course expectations aren't as high for 2016 as they were for 2015. When talking about the expectations for this season, why go back and find two articles from before last season?

I think we get a mulligan from the media. Last year was a fluke.