I agree our best chance came and went in 2014 with this corp group. There's just too many issues with the coaching and the defense plus Romo is having trouble staying healthy.
Why are the chances less if the core group is basically the same? Actually, the core group is better on the offensive line because they're more experienced.
It's the same coaching staff that went 12-4, what are the issues with Romo healthy? Did they somehow forget what they did?
Everything I've read across the board says the defense will be better. Sean Lee missed the entire 2014 season. Byron Jones is an immediate upgrade at safety, Cedric Thorton is the best run stopper we've had in a long time and there is some depth on the defensive line that simply wasn't there in 2014. The defense is far removed from those awful 8-8 defenses and are at least middle of the road now. Even mentioning the 2009 defense is laughable. Six years in the NFL is virtually a generation of players removed.
One of the reasons Romo stayed healthy in 2014 was that he didn't have to carry the team. With Elliott and the offensive line, Romo should be able to go back to the 2014 game plan. It's pure speculation so why include it in our chances? Roethlisberger has had a hard time staying healthy too. That's not a reason to downgrade the chances of the Steelers before the season starts. Brady gets hurt? Done. Palmer gets hurt? Done. Wilson gets hurt? Done. Romo gets hurt? Done. He's on the field and playing week one against the Giants - evaluate it from there.
Finally - the schedule has finally given us a break this year.
I think everything you mentioned is the exact opposite. I think Carolina, AZ, Seattle, Green Bay and Dallas are the teams to beat and anything could happen but I think we absolutely have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl.
BTW - that's not fans speak - that's Vegas speak.