An MVP by any other name

[percyhoward]

When comparing the two best MVP candidates at QB, you can point out Rodgers' league-leading passer rating in home games, or on 3rd and long. Or maybe his outstanding performance in the first half of games. You can mention that his running game, while good, isn't as good as Romo's. On Romo's behalf, you can look at his significant edge over Rodgers against winning teams, and in late-and-close situations. Or maybe you can point to his outstanding passer rating on the road. You might also mention that Rodgers' defense, while not the best, has been better than Romo's.

But the MVP is not just a quarterback's award, so it's really not about Romo vs. Rodgers. It's about the 2014 players vs. History. Here are three of Romo's accomplishments in 2014 that put him squarely in the middle of a group of previous winners of the award.

bold = MVP

1. Leading the League in Multiple Categories
This is only the 7th time in the last 38 seasons that a QB has led the league in passer rating, completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and yards per pass attempt. The other six QB who did it all won the Most Valuable Player award for that season.

2014 Romo
2007 Brady
2001 Warner
1999 Warner
1994 Young
1992 Young
1989 Montana

2. 5th-Highest Passer Rating Ever
These are the highest pass ratings ever put up in a season by a QB who started at least 13 games. Coming into 2014, every QB who was on this list won the MVP for that season. Unless there are co-MVP this year, or unless a non-QB is MVP, for the first time there will be one player on the list who did not win the award.

2011 Rodgers 122.5
2004 Manning 121.1
2007 Brady 117.2
2013 Manning 115.1
2014 Romo 113.2
1994 Young 112.8
1989 Montana 112.4
2014 Rodgers 112.2
2010 Brady 111.0

By the way, Brady won the award in 2010 averaging 243.8 yards per game, which is 3.2 less than what Romo averaged in 2014. The voters value efficiency over production (rating over passing yards). The last time an MVP led the league in yards but not pass rating was Rich Gannon in 2002.

3. 3rd-Highest Passer Rating Ever on the Road
There is justification in looking at the QB's performance on the road (as opposed to that at home) with regard to MVP consideration. Coming into 2014, only 3 of the top 7 home seasons had resulted in an MVP, while 7 of the top 7 road seasons did. Romo's 2014 road performance puts him high up on this list.

2007 Brady 127.0
1994 Young 122.6
2014 Romo 121.8
2007 Manning 120.7
2011 Rodgers 117.5
1984 Marino 116.6
2001 Warner 116.3
2013 Manning 115.3

Remember, every other player mentioned above (with the exception of 2014 Rodgers) won the MVP. The award doesn't always go to a quarterback, but the seasons listed above were obviously considered exceptional. Whoever wins it (and we can see the writing on the wall), these same numbers that Romo put up--by any other name--have historically been of MVP caliber.

 

[MrPeanutbutter]

Holy crap Tony Romo. It's unbelievable the amount of scrutiny he receives.

 

[SDCowboy]

Romo is without a doubt the MVP. It's disgusting that Rogers will likely get it though largely because he is Rogers.

 

[MrPeanutbutter]

Romo is without a doubt the MVP. It's disgusting that Rogers will likely get it though largely because he is Rogers.

In fairness, the Packers suck bad without him.

 

[Tabascocat]

In fairness, the Packers suck bad without him.

So would Denver, Dallas, Indy, NE and just about every other team.

 

[Hoov]

when do they announce the winner ?

 

[SDCowboy]

In fairness, the Packers suck bad without him.

Well yeah. I don't mean to take anything away from Rogers. Romo still deserves MVP over him though.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Romo is without a doubt the MVP. It's disgusting that Rogers will likely get it though largely because he is Rogers.

Romo's numbers are undoubtedly MVP-worthy, but this is just silly. Percy focuses on rate stats, but the voters clearly care about volume as well.

Every one of the QBs in Percy's first list was in the top 4 in passing yards as well, except for Montana, who was 8th, and Romo, who was 14th.
Montana also led the league in passer rating by a ridiculous 20 points and had a yards/attempt over 9.0 (vs. 8.3 for second place).
In fact, every one of those other guys led the league in passer rating by 13 points or more, except for Warner, who had huge leads in all the other categories (including passing yards, which he led by 700!).

In other words, all those other guys just blew away the field; there was no serious competition, at least among QBs. This year, we have Romo, who just edged out Rodgers in the rate stats, vs. Rodgers, who substantially led in the volume stats.

I don't know the answer to this: has an NFL QB ever won the MVP in a season where he ranked as low in passing yards as Romo did this year?

Edit: McNair won in 2003 despite finishing 19th, so it has been done.

 

[locked&loaded]

romos qb ratings in situations

redzone - 108
2nd half - 117.1
road games - 121.8
behind - 109.9
behind 1-8 pts - 142.4 !!!!
4th quarter within 7 - 123.6

Oh yeah...he is beating Rodgers in all those categories.

Rodgers is repping decidedly average qb ratings when behind (88.6) ,when behind 1-8 pts (84.7) , 4th quarter within 7 (84.4)

Rodgers threw 10 freaking tds against one team alone, the dead beat bears. that's a bit more than 1/4th of his touchdown passes the whole season.


The MVP resides in BIg D

 

[perrykemp]

Percy, you continue to make a very compelling set of arguments for Romo over Rodgers for MVP.

I too also believe Romo should make it over Rodgers on the strength of the QB rating which takes into account all of the passing stats. I think it's VERY close, but I'd cast my vote for Romo.

Having said that, here are the three reasons why I think Rodgers is going to win it and win it handily:

• Rodgers scored 6 more TDs than Romo - Rodgers 40 TDs (38 passing, 2 rushing), Romo 34 TDs (34 passing, 0 rushing)
• Rodgers turned the ball over 5 less times than Romo - Rodgers 7 turnovers (5 picks, 2 lost fumbles), Romo 12 turnovers (9 picks, 3 lost turnovers)
• Thats a 11 TD/TO gap between Rodgers and Romo. That's a pretty large delta.

Finally, the other thing I think Rodgers has going for him is this:

Rodger's 10-11 games wedged in the middle of the season (after the Lions game early in the season and up to but not including the Buffalo game) Rodgers went on a tear during those games that had a lot of national commentators, media people, etc saying things like "Is Rodgers the best QB ever?", "Has any QB in history played this well?", "The guy is robo-QB, he is perfect" etc etc.

In other words, there is no denying Romo's body of work is slightly better than Rodgers, however, I frankly think MVP voters where dazzled by Rodger's play in those 10-11 games where Rodgers was doing otherworldly things like throwing 6 TDs in a half, leading his team to 40-50 points by early 3rd quarters (and Rodgers getting pulled very early in 2nd halves), etc.

I believe MVP voters, wrongly, viewed that stretch of QB play by Rodgers and told themselves that it was the greatest most effortless dominant QB play they have ever seen in their lives and ultimately made up their minds well before the end of the season before Romo really nailed it (in December).

I'm not saying it' right, however, that's the reason why every early poll/indication we see if Rodgers will win it in a landslide.

 

[RS12]

No playoff win Sunday, no chance at MVP.

 

[SDCowboy]

No playoff win Sunday, no chance at MVP.

There's no real chance regardless.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Romo is without a doubt the MVP. It's disgusting that Rogers will likely get it though largely because he is Rogers.

Being able to lead your team to an undefeated record on the road should get him mvp honors. He was a few injuries away from losing only 2 games all year(home games of course).

That is truly a "most valuable player" to HIS team and its success.


Meh... Rogers cn have regular season mvp. I want super bowl mvp for Romo.


"And dat's dat"

 

[Ken]

No playoff win Sunday, no chance at MVP.

And romo's december performace was even better than those 10-11 games.


M...V....P......

 

[pansophy]

Given that Romo only got 3 All Pro votes I'd say this conversation is over whether Romo deserves the MVP or not (and I think he does).

 

[perrykemp]

And romo's december performace was even better than those 10-11 games.


M...V....P......

Rodgers threw 30 TDs and 0 Interceptions between the Lions game (Week 3) and the Buffalo Game (Week 15).

 

[BIGDen]

When comparing the two best MVP candidates at QB, you can point out Rodgers' league-leading passer rating in home games, or on 3rd and long. Or maybe his outstanding performance in the first half of games. You can mention that his running game, while good, isn't as good as Romo's. On Romo's behalf, you can look at his significant edge over Rodgers against winning teams, and in late-and-close situations. Or maybe you can point to his outstanding passer rating on the road. You might also mention that Rodgers' defense, while not the best, has been better than Romo's.

But the MVP is not just a quarterback's award, so it's really not about Romo vs. Rodgers. It's about the 2014 players vs. History. Here are three of Romo's accomplishments in 2014 that put him squarely in the middle of a group of previous winners of the award.

bold = MVP

1. Leading the League in Multiple Categories
This is only the 7th time in the last 38 seasons that a QB has led the league in passer rating, completion percentage, touchdown percentage, and yards per pass attempt. The other six QB who did it all won the Most Valuable Player award for that season.

2014 Romo
2007 Brady
2001 Warner
1999 Warner
1994 Young
1992 Young
1989 Montana

2. 5th-Highest Passer Rating Ever
These are the highest pass ratings ever put up in a season by a QB who started at least 13 games. Coming into 2014, every QB who was on this list won the MVP for that season. Unless there are co-MVP this year, or unless a non-QB is MVP, for the first time there will be one player on the list who did not win the award.

2011 Rodgers 122.5
2004 Manning 121.1
2007 Brady 117.2
2013 Manning 115.1
2014 Romo 113.2
1994 Young 112.8
1989 Montana 112.4
2014 Rodgers 112.2
2010 Brady 111.0

By the way, Brady won the award in 2010 averaging 243.8 yards per game, which is 3.2 less than what Romo averaged in 2014. The voters value efficiency over production (rating over passing yards). The last time an MVP led the league in yards but not pass rating was Rich Gannon in 2002.

3. 3rd-Highest Passer Rating Ever on the Road
There is justification in looking at the QB's performance on the road (as opposed to that at home) with regard to MVP consideration. Coming into 2014, only 3 of the top 7 home seasons had resulted in an MVP, while 7 of the top 7 road seasons did. Romo's 2014 road performance puts him high up on this list.

2007 Brady 127.0
1994 Young 122.6
2014 Romo 121.8
2007 Manning 120.7
2011 Rodgers 117.5
1984 Marino 116.6
2001 Warner 116.3
2013 Manning 115.3

Remember, every other player mentioned above (with the exception of 2014 Rodgers) won the MVP. The award doesn't always go to a quarterback, but the seasons listed above were obviously considered exceptional. Whoever wins it (and we can see the writing on the wall), these same numbers that Romo put up--by any other name--have historically been of MVP caliber.

Awesome information. Definitely the most underrated player I've ever watched. Percy, please get all of your amazing work/stats out to people in the media. Tweet links and stats to writers, announcers, and voters. Maybe even the stats guys on the networks. When I show fans of other teams these stats, it doesn't even seem possible to them. Keep up the great work!

 

[RS12]

There's no real chance regardless.

To the contrary, win tomorrow, then at Lambeau and there is a huge chance. Reps are made in the post season in any sport. Nobody cares about the regular season. All anybody is going to look at is the difficulty of the regular season schedule.

 

[ufcrules1]

Holy crap Tony Romo. It's unbelievable the amount of scrutiny he receives.

He receieves scrutiny not over his regular season stats rather the win or go home games and playoff game stats. If you look at those stats they are drastically below his regular season stats (minus the last regular season win or to home games).

He will have a perfect chance to prove everyone wrong in the playoffs this year.

 

[AdamJT13]

No playoff win Sunday, no chance at MVP.

The votes have already been cast. The playoffs are not part of the consideration.