An MVP by any other name

[dstovall5]

He receieves scrutiny not over his regular season stats rather the win or go home games and playoff game stats. If you look at those stats they are drastically below his regular season stats (minus the last regular season win or to home games).

He will have a perfect chance to prove everyone wrong in the playoffs this year.

So what if he plays great and we still lose? Team still has to perform, it's not about just Romo if we go deep in the playoffs. If we win, it will be a team effort, all 53 players will have had an impact on the game.

 

[perrykemp]

Rodgers threw 30 TDs and 0 Interceptions between the Lions game (Week 3) and the Buffalo Game (Week 15).

Edit: Rodgers threw 30 TDs and 2 Interceptions between the Lions game (Week 3) and the Buffalo Game (Week 15).

 

[percyhoward]

• Rodgers scored 6 more TDs than Romo - Rodgers 40 TDs (38 passing, 2 rushing), Romo 34 TDs (34 passing, 0 rushing)
• Rodgers turned the ball over 5 less times than Romo - Rodgers 7 turnovers (5 picks, 2 lost fumbles), Romo 12 turnovers (9 picks, 3 lost turnovers)
• Thats a 11 TD/TO gap between Rodgers and Romo. That's a pretty large delta.

As you said, passer rating takes into account all of the above stats, except for 1 lost fumble and 2 rushing TD. The large delta of 11 shrinks down to a difference of 3.

And although Rodgers did have more TD, that was only as a result of having more attempts. Romo's TD% was higher. Rodgers had an excellent INT%, which is typical for him. As I believe you have mentioned before (correctly), Rodgers is extremely cautious, and will take a sack or throwaway more often than he will take a risk, especially late in games. This is part of why Romo usually has more comebacks, game-winning drives, and much better late-and-close numbers. This season was no different.

2014 in Late and Close Situations (4th qtr or OT, + or - 8 points)
Romo 114.6
Rodgers 84.4

But make a good case with the full-season TD/INT ratio. Obviously, since Romo's full-season rating is higher than Rodgers,' there is much more to passing than TD/INT ratio, but these are probably things that aren't as easy for the voters to get a handle on. Romo led the league in both yards per attempt and completion percentage this year, which had only happened in 8 of the last 37 seasons. 6 of the 8 QB who did it won the MVP award. That doesn't mean Romo will, of course. With only one point separating them in pass rating, history says the "tie" will almost certainly go to the bigger name, and the better player.

 

[percyhoward]

This year, we have Romo, who just edged out Rodgers in the rate stats, vs. Rodgers, who substantially led in the volume stats.

You discover how insubstantial the difference in yards is when you switch the names around in that sentence, and realize Rodgers would still be the MVP this year.

But going strictly by the numbers that have mattered in the MVP voting, you can't ignore Romo's road performance. Absolutely blows away the field. Best in the history of pro football, with the exception of Brady's 2007.

 

[pansophy]

As you said, passer rating takes into account all of the above stats, except for 1 lost fumble and 2 rushing TD. The large delta of 11 shrinks down to a difference of 3.

And although Rodgers did have more TD, that was only as a result of having more attempts. Romo's TD% was higher. Rodgers had an excellent INT%, which is typical for him. As I believe you have mentioned before (correctly), Rodgers is extremely cautious, and will take a sack or throwaway more often than he will take a risk, especially late in games. This is part of why Romo usually has more comebacks, game-winning drives, and much better late-and-close numbers. This season was no different.

2014 in Late and Close Situations (4th qtr or OT, + or - 8 points)
Romo 114.6
Rodgers 84.4

But make a good case with the full-season TD/INT ratio. Obviously, since Romo's full-season rating is higher than Rodgers,' there is much more to passing than TD/INT ratio, but these are probably things that aren't as easy for the voters to get a handle on. Romo led the league in both yards per attempt and completion percentage this year, which had only happened in 8 of the last 37 seasons. 6 of the 8 QB who did it won the MVP award. That doesn't mean Romo will, of course. With only one point separating them in pass rating, history says the "tie" will almost certainly go to the bigger name, and the better player.

Given the All Pro vote this would all seem moot.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Romo only got 3 first place votes, virtually no chance to win MVP.

As for the playoffs, they don't matter because the MVP votes have already been cast with the results announced the night before the SB on the awards show

 

[ConstantReboot]

Here are the stats between Romo and Rogers. Romo won against Seattle and New Orleans. Rogers lost. Romo was also content on handing the ball off to Murray in the Chicago game. Rogers on the other hand threw 10 TDs against the hapless Chicago defense ranked 30th. Lastly, Romo had a bad game against the Eagles the 1st time. Then was able to scorch the Eagles on the road. Rogers beat the Eagles at Green Bay and demolished them.

Of course common opponents doesn't tell the entire story. But based on my opinion, Romo did his best work on the road. Throwing for 3 TDs in 4 straight road games is an amazing feat. Rogers got 1/4th of his TD production from the one team, the Chicago Bears.

Romo and Rogers common opponents:

Aaron Rogers:
Seahawks - 81.5 rating. 1TD/1INT
Chicago (1st game) 151.2 rating. 4TD
New Orleans - 93.8 rating. 1TD/2INT
Eagles- 120.3 rating. 3TDs
Chicago (2nd game) - 145.8 rating. 6 TDs

Tony Romo:
Seahawks - 110.2 rating. 2TDs
New Orleans - 137.4 rating. 3 TDs
Eagles (1st game) - 53.7 rating. 0TDs/2INTs
Chicago - 138 rating. 3TDs
Eagles (2nd game) - 129.1 rating. 3 TDs

 

[AdamJT13]

Romo did his best work on the road. Throwing for 3 TDs in 4 straight road games is an amazing feat.

Romo is the first quarterback ever to have four straight road games with at least three TD passes and no interceptions.

He's also the first to have a passer rating of 118 or better in four straight road games (min. 15 attempts). (Romo actually had a rating of 129.1 or better in all four games -- no other QB had ever done better than 117.9.)

 

[JD_KaPow]

You discover how insubstantial the difference in yards is when you switch the names around in that sentence, and realize Rodgers would still be the MVP this year.

The fact that the voters don't use sound decision-making processes doesn't mean that their decision is incorrect in this case. And an 18% difference in yards is not insubstantial. And none of this takes into account the nearly 300 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs that Rodgers also contributed.

But going strictly by the numbers that have mattered in the MVP voting, you can't ignore Romo's road performance. Absolutely blows away the field. Best in the history of pro football, with the exception of Brady's 2007.

I'm very confident that voters don't care in the slightest about passer rating on the road. Here are the seasons you listed:

2007 Brady 127.0: led the league in everything, broke the TD record
1994 Young 122.6: led the league by over 20 points in overall passer rating, 4th in passing yards overall, tops in TD.
2014 Romo 121.8
2007 Manning 120.7: (actually 2004) 10+ point lead overall in passer rating, 3rd in passing yards overall
2011 Rodgers 117.5: 10+ point lead in overall passer rating, 5th in passing yards overall
1984 Marino 116.6: led the league in everything, broke the TD record
2001 Warner 116.3: led the league in everything
2013 Manning 115.3: led the league in everything (Foles led in rate stats, but in only 8 games), broke the TD record

None of those guys won the MVP because of their extra-special performance on the road. These guys won the MVP because they blew away the field in everything: they had no serious competition. Their road performance did not play any particular role in their winning MVP, except insofar as their road performance contributed half of their overall league-dominating numbers.

 

[Pessimist_cowboy]

In fairness, the Packers suck bad without him.

did you watch us vs arizona ?

 

[COfWaBnOY]

Romo's numbers are undoubtedly MVP-worthy, but this is just silly. Percy focuses on rate stats, but the voters clearly care about volume as well.

Every one of the QBs in Percy's first list was in the top 4 in passing yards as well, except for Montana, who was 8th, and Romo, who was 14th.
Montana also led the league in passer rating by a ridiculous 20 points and had a yards/attempt over 9.0 (vs. 8.3 for second place).
In fact, every one of those other guys led the league in passer rating by 13 points or more, except for Warner, who had huge leads in all the other categories (including passing yards, which he led by 700!).

In other words, all those other guys just blew away the field; there was no serious competition, at least among QBs. This year, we have Romo, who just edged out Rodgers in the rate stats, vs. Rodgers, who substantially led in the volume stats.

I don't know the answer to this: has an NFL QB ever won the MVP in a season where he ranked as low in passing yards as Romo did this year?

Edit: McNair won in 2003 despite finishing 19th, so it has been done.

BLOWING away the field and just edging out someone ..... ??? ..... humm

I say it's like winning by 40 or winning by 1 ..... a win is a win ..... jus sayn'

 

[CCBoy]

This is pretty impressive as well:

Names like Aaron Rodgers, Le’Veon Bell, Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Tony Romo and Dez Bryant were all in the equation, but a running back with 2,261 yards from scrimmage was just too impressive to ignore.

 

[stilltheguru]

We need to advance and Romo needs to do his best Hakeem Olajuwon impression with Aaron being David Robinson

 

[JD_KaPow]

BLOWING away the field and just edging out someone ..... ??? ..... humm

I say it's like winning by 40 or winning by 1 ..... a win is a win ..... jus sayn'

The point is this: the others in those lists led the league (by a lot) in the rate stats AND were among the league leaders in the volume stats. Romo led Rodgers by a bit in the rate stats but finished behind him in the volume stats, and in fact was not among the league leaders in the volume stats. You can weight these things as you choose, but it's not unreasonable to give the edge to Rodgers in such a case.

 

[Tabascocat]

We need to advance and Romo needs to do his best Hakeem Olajuwon impression with Aaron being David Robinson

Only one small problem here.....Robinson was never in the same league as Hakeem

 

[COfWaBnOY]

The point is this: the others in those lists led the league (by a lot) in the rate stats AND were among the league leaders in the volume stats. Romo led Rodgers by a bit in the rate stats but finished behind him in the volume stats, and in fact was not among the league leaders in the volume stats. You can weight these things as you choose, but it's not unreasonable to give the edge to Rodgers in such a case.

it's Most VALUABLE Player ..... not Most VOLUME Player ..... how many games does GB win without Rogers ???.. no one knows ..... BUT ..... we do know how many Dallas wins without ROMO .....

 

[COfWaBnOY]

this is the #1 thing I do NOT get about the whole Romo vs Rogers thing ..... if it's someones (Romo) fault a team can NOT win the big one and will never be a Super Bowl contender because they (Romo) play out of control and choke at the most crucial times ..... when they (Romo) do NOT choke at the crucial time and play under control putting up measurable numbers backing up that "control" and even wins the big game(s) ..... how are they (Romo) not the most VALUABLE player on their (the Dallas Cowboys) team ???.. just a question .....

 

[FloridaRob]

Rodgers did throw for 10 Tds against the Bears and three Tds against the Eagles but realize he did it in just over two quarters of each game . The guy left a lot of playing time because the team was demolishing teams in the first half.

 

[Sarge]

I really couldn't care less who wins the MVP. It's a certain trophy I am focused in on to be honest. Besides, we as fans know the real deal as it relates to the MVP.

 

[percyhoward]

The fact that the voters don't use sound decision-making processes doesn't mean that their decision is incorrect in this case. And an 18% difference in yards is not insubstantial.

I'm very confident that voters don't care in the slightest about passer rating on the road.

So if the two QB switch yardage numbers, it's still those numbers that matter, whatever the voters think. But if we're talking about Romo's road performance, it's what the voters are thinking that matters, not the numbers.