Annual caution that college highlight films can cause PCD

[john van brocklin]

Buyer beware: College highlight films of most NFL prospects for the draft are almost always overrated. Proceed with caution. In fact many highlight films this team of year lead to the dreaded offseason affliction known as “Pet Cat Disease”.

What’s “Pet Cat Disease, or “PCD”? It’s the annual over-fixation at draft time on a prospect whose highlight film shows a QB hitting wide open receivers while under no pressure against a team like William and Mary College, featuring a defense with 11 guys not headed to the NFL. Most college players can look look really good for about 5-10 plays a game. But they usually play 50-70 plays a game, meaning only about 10-20% of the time are they looking like they’re in “beast mode”.

Highlight films have their place and purpose. But it’s worth noting some key indicators:

• Who is the opponent in the film? If it’s Ohio State whipping up on the Citadel, tap the brakes.
• If it’s a QB or WR in the highlight, you may be witnessing a coverage meltdown, not a spectacular play. Many highlights are actually defensive lapses which skew what you see.
• If it’s a lineman, consider who they’re “pancaking” in a highlight. If an OT is crushing a 180 lb CB from Vanderbilt on a screen pass, be aware.

My point is, don’t just believe a college highlight film at face value. For some perspective, watch a high school highlight film and remember 97% of the kids in the film will never play college football. Then apply that formula to a college film.

Avoid “PCD”!

Thanks for the warning!

 

[Redball Express]

Buyer beware: College highlight films of most NFL prospects for the draft are almost always overrated. Proceed with caution. In fact many highlight films this team of year lead to the dreaded offseason affliction known as “Pet Cat Disease”.

What’s “Pet Cat Disease, or “PCD”? It’s the annual over-fixation at draft time on a prospect whose highlight film shows a QB hitting wide open receivers while under no pressure against a team like William and Mary College, featuring a defense with 11 guys not headed to the NFL. Most college players can look look really good for about 5-10 plays a game. But they usually play 50-70 plays a game, meaning only about 10-20% of the time are they looking like they’re in “beast mode”.

Highlight films have their place and purpose. But it’s worth noting some key indicators:

• Who is the opponent in the film? If it’s Ohio State whipping up on the Citadel, tap the brakes.
• If it’s a QB or WR in the highlight, you may be witnessing a coverage meltdown, not a spectacular play. Many highlights are actually defensive lapses which skew what you see.
• If it’s a lineman, consider who they’re “pancaking” in a highlight. If an OT is crushing a 180 lb CB from Vanderbilt on a screen pass, be aware.

My point is, don’t just believe a college highlight film at face value. For some perspective, watch a high school highlight film and remember 97% of the kids in the film will never play college football. Then apply that formula to a college film.

Avoid “PCD”!

It's just a different game from TBE pros.i enjoy college and following their growth as players in the pros. So when I watch college.. I do not expect the drama you see in the pros. It's still football..its like baseball where you have the Home Team you play on..like baseball has AA and triple A teams the pros have not expanded to that system yet. So I enjoy wTchingt thing the games like everybody else. Whatever.

 

[MCMetal69]

Until you have 9 pro bowlers across both lines, keeping taking the best lineman available. It’s boring, but it’s also the reason the Cowboys or the Eagles did anything of value over the last 20 years.

Cox. Ware. Kelce. Martin. Frederick. Smith. Johnson.

Washington finally wised up, stopped making stupid picks, fixed their oline and went heavy first round Dline, paid off this year even without a franchise qb.

It’s boring but it translates. Taking TE’s, WR’s, corners, RBs rarely translates long term.

Ignore the Pitts swooning, I hope you don’t take Sewell so we can

If Sewell is there at 10 and the Cowboys don't pick him there is no way he gets past the Giants who draft right before you.............

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

If Sewell is there at 10 and the Cowboys don't pick him there is no way he gets past the Giants who draft right before you.............

We can only draft who is available at our pick

 

[GMO415]

Pitts is all hype. He should be drafted in the second or third round.

 

[CouchCoach]

Highlight reels are nothing but bait for scouting departments. And they don't take the hook until they see a lot more than that.

How many plays do you think are on Surtain, Horn and Farley highlight reels of them giving up TD's? I am guessing those are on the WR reels.

 

[Bobhaze]

Highlight reels are nothing but bait for scouting departments. And they don't take the hook until they see a lot more than that.

How many plays do you think are on Surtain, Horn and Farley highlight reels of them giving up TD's? I am guessing those are on the WR reels.

And if you are a corner at Alabama, you’re usually playing with 6-8 other guys on defense who are NFL level talent, and they make plays like pressuring the QB which makes coverage much easier. That’s what helped Mo Claiborne at LSU look better than he was.

I’m not saying Patrick Surtain is not good. But I am saying highlight reel context always matters.