Are free agents too expensive or will the $2 billion of 2018 salary cap space explode the scene

[FuzzyLumpkins]

.
if it has plenty of cap space, a team does not risk not being able sign its own FAs.
one team's action does not typically change the market by itself
by signing FAs to increase its wins, it is not hurting itself as long as the other teams are not doing the same thing.
if there is no collusion, every team is better off (unless no cap) by signing the FA.
otherwise you have collusion with the cooperative outcome.
this is standard game theory 101 - not my creation.

fact of the matter is that the data supports salaries are going up.

if a team sees it is going to pay $50 million in penalties or spend it, i think they would spend.
same game theory argument.

Data does not support salaries going up proportional to the cap increase.

Again how are teams better for signing UFA for the sake of signing them? That is a baseless assertion.

Signing top FA to massive contracts sets the market. It is what it is.

You can think what you want but they are already seeing it and already not spending it. Like I said this is not their first rodeo and the league as a whole is not following your premise.

 

[waldoputty]

Data does not support salaries going up proportional to the cap increase.

Again how are teams better for signing UFA for the sake of signing them? That is a baseless assertion.

Signing top FA to massive contracts sets the market. It is what it is.

You can think what you want but they are already seeing it and already not spending it. Like I said this is not their first rodeo and the league as a whole is not following your premise.

teams dont sign FAs for the hell of it.
signing FAs improves their team.
a single team signing a single FA does not set the market.

in another board, one person arguing for no free agents said tier 2 players getting the top $ are a bad value because the tier 2 salaries are going up disproportionately higher than their contribution.
the only reason that is the case is that the tier1 players have been tied down.

signing top FA to contracts does not set the market - their salaries are artificially held down by noncompetitive techniques such as the franchise tag. it is the 2nd tier guys getting to the market that is setting the market.

i will get around to estimating 2018 FA expenditures and those could be the basis for discussion.
otherwise it is just handwaving.

 

[waldoputty]

If you say so. I cannot argue belief based on nothing better than gratuitous characterization.

We stopped signing big name free agents to large contracts every year we could in 2013 following Carr. Acting like the organization has not changed dramatically in the past few years is convenient if delusional. Shall we discuss the draft approach and front office structure as well?

They used to do things your way and were mediocre for the better part of two decades. Now that they have changed to their current approach in 2013 they have built one of the best teams in the NFL. I have little doubt that they will occasionally pick their FA battles but they are clearly intending to build their defense through the draft and it's a good one to do so with.

getting good drafts are wonderful.
but if we want to compete this year, that by itself would probably not be enough.
this thread is about where the market and values are going.
not about what Dallas FO is doing.
it is clear that they have half-written off 2017.

 

[waldoputty]

Seriously. All teams sign FA. The only one of those that was a large signing was Carr and he was wasted money.

that was when we were cap constrained.

 

[Nightman]

I cannot argue

the only truth you have ever posted.....keep wishcasting this 'new' process will work

 

[Proof]

He actually addressed the cap floor not being tallied annually in detail and explained how it could affect teams. He also addressed large signing bonuses like what Martin will get as a way to meet that requirement. He never said that teams haven't considered this problem so I can't see why you would laugh at him. Basically he put a lot of thought and effort into generating conversation in this very dull point in the offseason and you acted like an *** and didn't comprehend half of what he said.

I don't know that I've ever actually used this term, but it feels so right in this context. This guy is a blow hard and really seems to enjoy feeling like the smartest guy in the room.

 

[waldoputty]

the only truth you have ever posted.....keep wishcasting this 'new' process will work

Ok, I did a first order estimation. Got a headache after doing this

I went through the entire 2018 FA list and identified 70 top FAs 70 (to be listed in separate post after this one)
I then went through 2018 teams and estimated the # of FAs each team needs to sign. This is based on their current players under contract + 5 2017 draftees + 5 2018 draftees.
This estimated identified 450 total free agents need by all the teams in totality.
In terms of salary the bottom 50% of the FAs are assumed to be vet minimum due to oversupply.
Of the top 50%, there are top tier, 2nd tier and then remaining 155 FAs that are consider '3rd tier'
The 1st tier salaries are considered to be constrained by franchise tags.
The 2nd tier and the 3rd tier salaries are the salaries in question here.
-
Top FAs $607,306,840 (table in net post)
Bottom 50% $157,500,000 (vet min for 225 players)
2nd tier free agents (estimated to be $10M AAV for all players): $340,000,000
So the top 70 FAs get $947,306,840
In contrast, the top 70 FAs in 2017 got a total of $478,566,665 AAV (AAV to do fair comparison)
So the 2018 top 70 FA salaries are 2X that of the 2017 top FA salaries.

Remaining 3rd tier players 155
Total $ left for 3rd tier assuming go up to the salary cap $895,193,160
Average $ per 3rd tier $5,775,440 if teams go up to salary cap
Total $ left for 3rd tier assuming only going up to 89% $750,193,160
Average $ per 3rd tier $4,839,956 if teams only go up to 89%
In 2017, this group of players from 71-225 received a total of $298,046,667
Obviously, any idiot can see that we are more than doubling at the 89% floor.

Yes, I did do a single year estimate instead of multi-year contracts.
Yes you can push a lot of cash expenditures in a signing bonus.
Let's say you put 1/3 of the contract in the signing bonus, the 2018 estimate is still WAY higher than 2017.
After the math assuming a 4 year average contract (to be conservative), you are still at $562,639,869 in 2018 instead of $298,046,667 for 2017 - a 89% increase!

This is the estimate of FAs signed in 2018 for all teams
------------2018 players--- 2017 draft--- 2018 draft---- 2 Top FAs---- Remove bottom 10---- Total----# Players Needed
Total --------1252---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1316--------- 380
Detroit Lions 37 5 5 2 -10 39 14
Minnesota Vikings 33 5 5 2 -10 35 18
Houston Texans 36 5 5 2 -10 38 15
Oakland Raiders 35 5 5 2 -10 37 16
Indianapolis Colts 44 5 5 2 -10 46 7
San Francisco 49ers 44 5 5 2 -10 46 7
Washington Commanders 41 5 5 2 -10 43 10
Los Angeles Rams 45 5 5 2 -10 47 6
New York Jets 46 5 5 2 -10 48 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41 5 5 2 -10 43 10
Cincinnati Bengals 39 5 5 2 -10 41 12
Atlanta Falcons 32 5 5 2 -10 34 19
Chicago Bears 31 5 5 2 -10 33 20
Carolina Panthers 36 5 5 2 -10 38 15
Los Angeles Chargers 34 5 5 2 -10 36 17
New England Patriots 35 5 5 2 -10 37 16
Arizona Cardinals 34 5 5 2 -10 36 17
Buffalo Bills 34 5 5 2 -10 36 17
Pittsburgh Steelers 33 5 5 2 -10 35 18
Seattle Seahawks 32 5 5 2 -10 34 19
Baltimore Ravens 39 5 5 2 -10 41 12
Green Bay Packers 31 5 5 2 -10 33 20
Tennessee Titans 47 5 5 2 -10 49 4
New Orleans Saints 50 5 5 2 -10 52 1
Miami Dolphins 38 5 5 2 -10 40 13
Cleveland Browns 49 5 5 2 -10 51 2
New York Giants 42 5 5 2 -10 44 9
Denver Broncos 33 5 5 2 -10 35 18
Jacksonville Jaguars 48 5 5 2 -10 50 3
Dallas Cowboys 46 5 5 2 -10 48 5
Kansas City Chiefs 36 5 5 2 -10 38 15
Philadelphia Eagles 51 5 5 2 -10 53 0

 

[waldoputty]

the only truth you have ever posted.....keep wishcasting this 'new' process will work

Here are the top 70 players divided into 2 tiers. Top tier is limited by franchise tag type games.
2nd tier is assumed to have $10 million AAV.

Top FAs $607,306,840 (table in net post)
Bottom 50% $157,500,000 (vet min for 225 players)
2nd tier free agents (estimated to be $10M AAV for all players): $340,000,000
So the top 70 FAs get $947,306,840
In contrast, the top 70 FAs in 2017 got a total of $478,566,665 AAV (AAV to do fair comparison)
So the 2018 top 70 FA salaries are 2X that of the 2017 top FA salaries.

Top Tier-------Position Age---- 2017 salary--- Projected 2018 Salary
Totals $607,306,840
1 Drew Brees QB------ 38---- $24,250,000------- $25,000,000
2 Kirk Cousins QB 28 $23,943,600 $25,000,000
3 Sam Bradford QB 29 $18,000,000 $25,000,000
4 Matthew Stafford QB 29 $17,666,667 $25,000,000
5 Trumaine Johnson CB 27 $16,742,400 $18,416,640
6 Melvin Ingram OLB 27 $14,550,000 $16,005,000
7 Kawann Short DT 28 $13,468,000 $14,814,800
8 Le'Veon Bell RB 25 $12,120,000 $13,332,000
9 Larry Fitzgerald WR 33 $11,000,000 $12,100,000
10 Nate Solder LT 28 $10,031,000 $14,000,000
11 Jimmy Graham TE 30 $10,000,000 $11,000,000
12 Alshon Jeffery WR 27 $9,500,000 $15,700,000
13 Vontae Davis CB 28 $9,000,000 $16,742,400
14 Thomas Davis OLB 34 $9,000,000 $16,005,000
15 Dontari Poe DT 26 $8,000,000 $14,814,800
16 Bennie Logan DT 27 $8,000,000 $14,814,800
17 Luke Joeckel G 25 $8,000,000 $14,200,000
18 Daryl Washington ILB 30 $8,000,000 $14,500,000
19 Kyle Williams DT 33 $7,433,333 $14,814,800
20 Jason McCourty CB 29 $7,173,333 $16,742,400
21 Kam Chancellor SS 28 $7,000,502 $10,890,000
22 Prince Amukamara CB 27 $7,000,000 $16,742,400
23 Terrelle Pryor WR 27 $6,000,000 $14,270,000
24 Donald Penn LT 33 $5,950,000 $16,900,000
25 Dion Jordan DE 27 $5,143,077 $14,270,000
26 Vontaze Burfict OLB 26 $4,751,000 $16,005,000
27 Ezekiel Ansah DE 27 $4,648,629 $16,900,000
28 Malcolm Butler CB $16,742,400
29 D.J. Hayden CB $16,742,400
30 Sheldon Richardson DT $14,814,800
31 Star Lotulelei DT $14,814,800
32 Desmond Trufant CB $16,742,400
33 DeAndre Hopkins WR $14,270,000
34 Jimmy Garoppolo QB $25,000,000
35 Trai Turner OG $14,200,000
36 Derek Carr QB $30,000,000

2nd tier--------Position --Age ---2017 salary---- Projected 2018 Salary
Totals $340,000,000
1 David Harris ILB -------33--- $7,166,667------------ $10,000,000
2 Akiem Hicks DE 27 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
3 Paul Posluszny ILB 32 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
4 Eddie Royal WR 30 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
5 Morris Claiborne CB 27 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
6 Rey Maualuga ILB 30 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
7 Justin Bethel CB 26 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
8 William Hayes DE 31 $4,750,000 $10,000,000
9 Glover Quin FS 31 $4,700,000 $10,000,000
10 Darren Sproles RB 33 $4,500,000 $10,000,000
11 Koa Misi OLB 30 $4,250,000 $10,000,000
12 Julian Edelman WR 30 $4,250,000 $10,000,000
13 Jaye Howard DT 28 $5,000,000 $10,000,000
14 Mike Wallace WR 30 $5,750,000 $10,000,000
15 Aldon Smith OLB 27 $5,750,000 $10,000,000
16 T.J. Ward SS 30 $5,625,000 $10,000,000
17 Brian Robison DE 33 $5,600,000 $10,000,000
18 Antonio Gates TE 36 $5,500,000 $10,000,000
19 Josh McCown QB 37 - $10,000,000
20 Johnathan Joseph CB 32 $6,750,000 $10,000,000
21 Brent Grimes CB 33 $6,750,000 $10,000,000
22 Ahmad Brooks OLB 33 $6,733,333 $10,000,000
23 Connor Barwin OLB 30 - $10,000,000
24 Eric Wood C 31 $6,350,000 $10,000,000
25 Morgan Burnett SS 28 $6,187,500 $10,000,000
26 Haloti Ngata DT 33 $6,000,000 $10,000,000
27 Jason Witten TE 34 $7,400,000 $10,000,000
28 Jonathan Stewart RB 30 $7,300,000 $10,000,000
29 Eric Reid CB $10,000,000
30 Tyler Eifert TE $10,000,000
31 Sharrif Floyd DT $10,000,000
32 Xavier Su'a-Filo OG $10,000,000
33 Ra'Shede Hageman DT $10,000,000
34 Dion Lewis LB $10,000,000

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

the only truth you have ever posted.....keep wishcasting this 'new' process will work

Taking things out of context demonstrates your inability to argue with honesty.

You just got done telling me they don't change and now are claiming that I am wishcasting that the change will work. Keep moving those goalposts instead of admitting you were wrong Look at the roster, the drafts, and the upward record while you're at it.

If anyone is wishcasting is you considering your method failed for over a decade in Dallas.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I don't know that I've ever actually used this term, but it feels so right in this context. This guy is a blow hard and really seems to enjoy feeling like the smartest guy in the room.

Cool story, peanut gallery. Have anything other than personal attacks to add to the conversation?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Ok, I did a first order estimation. Got a headache after doing this

I went through the entire 2018 FA list and identified 70 top FAs 70 (to be listed in separate post after this one)
I then went through 2018 teams and estimated the # of FAs each team needs to sign. This is based on their current players under contract + 5 2017 draftees + 5 2018 draftees.
This estimated identified 450 total free agents need by all the teams in totality.
In terms of salary the bottom 50% of the FAs are assumed to be vet minimum due to oversupply.
Of the top 50%, there are top tier, 2nd tier and then remaining 155 FAs that are consider '3rd tier'
The 1st tier salaries are considered to be constrained by franchise tags.
The 2nd tier and the 3rd tier salaries are the salaries in question here.
-
Top FAs $607,306,840 (table in net post)
Bottom 50% $157,500,000 (vet min for 225 players)
2nd tier free agents (estimated to be $10M AAV for all players): $340,000,000
So the top 70 FAs get $947,306,840
In contrast, the top 70 FAs in 2017 got a total of $478,566,665 AAV (AAV to do fair comparison)
So the 2018 top 70 FA salaries are 2X that of the 2017 top FA salaries.

Remaining 3rd tier players 155
Total $ left for 3rd tier assuming go up to the salary cap $895,193,160
Average $ per 3rd tier $5,775,440 if teams go up to salary cap
Total $ left for 3rd tier assuming only going up to 89% $750,193,160
Average $ per 3rd tier $4,839,956 if teams only go up to 89%
In 2017, this group of players from 71-225 received a total of $298,046,667
Obviously, any idiot can see that we are more than doubling at the 89% floor.

Yes, I did do a single year estimate instead of multi-year contracts.
Yes you can push a lot of cash expenditures in a signing bonus.
Let's say you put 1/3 of the contract in the signing bonus, the 2018 estimate is still WAY higher than 2017.
After the math assuming a 4 year average contract (to be conservative), you are still at $562,639,869 in 2018 instead of $298,046,667 for 2017 - a 89% increase!

This is the estimate of FAs signed in 2018 for all teams
------------2018 players--- 2017 draft--- 2018 draft---- 2 Top FAs---- Remove bottom 10---- Total----# Players Needed
Total --------1252---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1316--------- 380
Detroit Lions 37 5 5 2 -10 39 14
Minnesota Vikings 33 5 5 2 -10 35 18
Houston Texans 36 5 5 2 -10 38 15
Oakland Raiders 35 5 5 2 -10 37 16
Indianapolis Colts 44 5 5 2 -10 46 7
San Francisco 49ers 44 5 5 2 -10 46 7
Washington Commanders 41 5 5 2 -10 43 10
Los Angeles Rams 45 5 5 2 -10 47 6
New York Jets 46 5 5 2 -10 48 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41 5 5 2 -10 43 10
Cincinnati Bengals 39 5 5 2 -10 41 12
Atlanta Falcons 32 5 5 2 -10 34 19
Chicago Bears 31 5 5 2 -10 33 20
Carolina Panthers 36 5 5 2 -10 38 15
Los Angeles Chargers 34 5 5 2 -10 36 17
New England Patriots 35 5 5 2 -10 37 16
Arizona Cardinals 34 5 5 2 -10 36 17
Buffalo Bills 34 5 5 2 -10 36 17
Pittsburgh Steelers 33 5 5 2 -10 35 18
Seattle Seahawks 32 5 5 2 -10 34 19
Baltimore Ravens 39 5 5 2 -10 41 12
Green Bay Packers 31 5 5 2 -10 33 20
Tennessee Titans 47 5 5 2 -10 49 4
New Orleans Saints 50 5 5 2 -10 52 1
Miami Dolphins 38 5 5 2 -10 40 13
Cleveland Browns 49 5 5 2 -10 51 2
New York Giants 42 5 5 2 -10 44 9
Denver Broncos 33 5 5 2 -10 35 18
Jacksonville Jaguars 48 5 5 2 -10 50 3
Dallas Cowboys 46 5 5 2 -10 48 5
Kansas City Chiefs 36 5 5 2 -10 38 15
Philadelphia Eagles 51 5 5 2 -10 53 0

You have a point with this illegible ramble?

 

[Proof]

Cool story, peanut gallery. Have anything other than personal attacks to add to the conversation?

For what? It's straight forward. Dude put a lot of effort into his thoughts and made the argument. There's nothing left for me to add (or detract). I just read and appreciated the effort. You don't have that setting.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

For what? It's straight forward. Dude put a lot of effort into his thoughts and made the argument. There's nothing left for me to add (or detract). I just read and appreciated the effort. You don't have that setting.

Your previous post was attacking me. If you would kept reading you would have seen I admitted my mistake.

In your own words can you tell me what his argument is?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

getting good drafts are wonderful.
but if we want to compete this year, that by itself would probably not be enough.
this thread is about where the market and values are going.
not about what Dallas FO is doing.
it is clear that they have half-written off 2017.

So this has nothing to do with your crusade to have us pay a lot for "top FA" and should go in the NFL zone as it has nothing to do with Cowboys?

BTW I have been arguing the market. You know this and you still have not shown that the NFL as a whole will "blow up" because of the floor and dramatically increase spending on FA. You just show they are a far way away ad nauseum which no one argues at any point and wave your hands a lot.

By your standard they "blew off" 2014 too as they had a worse roster with many more holes.
Ware was gone. Spencer was coming off microfracture. Selive and Mincey oh my. Carr had just got destroyed the year before. Our nickelback was Sterling Moore. Lee couldn't finish yet another season. Our depth was Laurence and Ernie friggin Sims. IT had been our worst defense in history.

On offense Romo was hurt once again. Murray couldn't finish a season. Bernadeau and Free were the right side of our line.

And in FA we brought in a bunch of Steve-o specials and we got to here from the usual suspects that because we did not do more in FA we were going to be terrible.

Then we went 12-4 and won a playoff game.

 

[waldoputty]

You have a point with this illegible ramble?

It means

Putty: 1
Fuzzy: 0

 

[waldoputty]

So this has nothing to do with your crusade to have us pay a lot for "top FA" and should go in the NFL zone as it has nothing to do with Cowboys?

BTW I have been arguing the market. You know this and you still have not shown that the NFL as a whole will "blow up" because of the floor and dramatically increase spending on FA. You just show they are a far way away ad nauseum which no one argues at any point and wave your hands a lot.

i am arguing about value - because i see value changing drastically

all the FAs worth signing are gone, so crusade is on hold for a while.
next deadline is the trade deadline...

the long thing i posted is the calculation on the salary blowing up

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It means

Putty: 1
Fuzzy: 0

Do you have a point? I'm serious. Claiming victory is fun and all but you never address my argument directly. You dance around them, blanket dismiss them, and then repeat yourself.

No one is arguing that they are not near the floor. No one is arguing there is not a ton of roster turnover in the NFL.

What am I supposed to take from that?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

i am arguing about value - because i see value changing drastically

all the FAs worth signing are gone, so crusade is on hold for a while.
next deadline is the trade deadline...

the long thing i posted is the calculation on the salary blowing up

And again you have not correlated the floor to spending. You sure like to self assume and wave your hands though.

 

[waldoputty]

Do you have a point? I'm serious. Claiming victory is fun and all but you never address my argument directly. You dance around them, blanket dismiss them, and then repeat yourself.

No one is arguing that they are not near the floor. No one is arguing there is not a ton of roster turnover in the NFL.

What am I supposed to take from that?

just read the sentences i bolded.
i estimated salaries in 2018 as well as i could without having to do a cap table for all 32 teams.
that would obviously take 1 month to do as i ignore all the other teams.
instead of top down, i did it bottoms up from the free agents available.
then with those as a foundation, i went back top down to do some broad estimates.

 

[waldoputty]

And again you have not correlated the floor to spending. You sure like to self assume and wave your hands though.

stop arguing and read the thing with an open mind.
i spent 2 hours doing it and gave me a headache