Are free agents too expensive or will the $2 billion of 2018 salary cap space explode the scene

[FuzzyLumpkins]

first of all, the cowboys do not have a floor problem.
it is the other teams.
we have no idea how these teams operate.
cleveland had revenues of 300M a few years ago.
we have no idea what their margins are.
we have no what they operating costs are.
we have no idea what their staff looks like.

for a number of teams, it seems they have ignore the floor issues in 2017
they may well ignore the floor issues in 2018.
the floor blowing things up is not a conceptually difficult to predict thing.

If it's not difficult to predict then it's not unreasonable to assume the teams know this too. Yet here they are ignoring it anyway.

Still don't see what exactly is going to make them change their mind.

 

[waldoputty]

If it's not difficult to predict then it's not unreasonable to assume the teams know this too. Yet here they are ignoring it anyway.

Still don't see what exactly is going to make them change their mind.

yea it could just be the attitude that we will worry about it when we get close to the end of the 4 year period.
we assume there is a staff of economics and cap people.
really, one person is more than enough to run all the cap management stuff.

Ravens Operating Personnel
Administration
NAME TITLE
Jeff Goering Sr. Vice President/CFO
Jim Coller Vice President of Finance
Reba Koppelman Director of Finance
Dana Cline Senior Payables Manager
Patti Holtery Senior Payroll Manager
Liz McCroskey Accounting Manager
Toni Lekas Receptionist
Valarie Wideman Receptionist

Player Personnel
NAME TITLE
Ozzie Newsome General Manager & Executive Vice President
Eric DeCosta Assistant General Manager
Pat Moriarty Senior Vice President of Football Administration
Vincent Newsome Director of Pro Personnel
Joe Hortiz Director of College Scouting
Jessica Markison Director of Football Administration
George Kokinis Senior Personnel Assistant
O.J. Brigance Senior Advisor to Player Engagement
Harry Swayne Director of Player Engagement
Chad Alexander Assistant Director of Pro Personnel
Milt Hendrickson National Scout
Lonnie Young National Scout
Mark Azevedo Northeast Area Scout
David Blackburn West Area Scout
Ian Cunningham Southeast/Southwest Area Scout
Jack Glowik Midwest/Southwest Area Scout
Dwaune Jones Midwest Area Scout
Andrew Raphael Southeast Area Scout
David McDonald Football Systems Developer
Brandon Berning Player Personnel Assistant
Joey Cleary Player Personnel Assistant
Corey Krawiec Player Personnel Assistant
Patrick Williams Player Personnel Assistant
Maggie Litz Domanowski Player Personnel Administrative Assistant
Johnny Shelton Team Chaplain

 

[waldoputty]

If it's not difficult to predict then it's not unreasonable to assume the teams know this too. Yet here they are ignoring it anyway.

Still don't see what exactly is going to make them change their mind.

i dont see any economist types in the Ravens staff.
there are 3 finance type managers which may be a little more than normal for an organization this size.
there is also an assistant GM.
i actually dont see them keeping an economist inhouse, but those type of things could simply be farmed out.
instead of a pure economist, the type of people who would be best may be micro/game theory types.
there is plenty of precedence of apply this type of stuff to football analytics:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/02/game-theory-american-football
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/06/game-theory-and-runpass-balance.html
http://math.ucdenver.edu/~mferrara/publications/Football_publish.pdf
http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/01/20/super-bowl-100-gameplay-computers

also it may not be anything changing their mind.
remember the guiding hands of supply and demand are invisible.
if the teams are really so short-term and cavalier about things despite the obvious situation, time of reckoning would take care of itself.
when i say take care of itself, prices would skyrocket because of the bidding of the better players.
that would drag all the salaries up except for the bottom where there is an oversupply of marginal players.
it would be "you have to spend it anyway or give it away to the collective bargaining agreement' attitude.

i am just looking at it from an economics view since it is my training.
i just see it as the savings imposed by squeezing the players with bad timing now would have to be lavished on the players with the great timing later.
after the floor deadline, the salaries could well drop quite a bit because the pressure is off.
whether i am right or not, they are better off locking up the class of 2017 after this season.
there are obvious risks that you pay too much like in the case of Tcrawford who did not maintain the trajectory they foresaw.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

i dont see any economist types in the Ravens staff.
there are 3 finance type managers which may be a little more than normal for an organization this size.
there is also an assistant GM.
i actually dont see them keeping an economist inhouse, but those type of things could simply be farmed out.
instead of a pure economist, the type of people who would be best may be micro/game theory types.
there is plenty of precedence of apply this type of stuff to football analytics:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/02/game-theory-american-football
http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/06/game-theory-and-runpass-balance.html
http://math.ucdenver.edu/~mferrara/publications/Football_publish.pdf
http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/01/20/super-bowl-100-gameplay-computers

also it may not be anything changing their mind.
remember the guiding hands of supply and demand are invisible.
if the teams are really so short-term and cavalier about things despite the obvious situation, time of reckoning would take care of itself.
when i say take care of itself, prices would skyrocket because of the bidding of the better players.
that would drag all the salaries up except for the bottom where there is an oversupply of marginal players.
it would be "you have to spend it anyway or give it away to the collective bargaining agreement' attitude.

i am just looking at it from an economics view since it is my training.
i just see it as the savings imposed by squeezing the players with bad timing now would have to be lavished on the players with the great timing later.
after the floor deadline, the salaries could well drop quite a bit because the pressure is off.
whether i am right or not, they are better off locking up the class of 2017 after this season.
there are obvious risks that you pay too much like in the case of Tcrawford who did not maintain the trajectory they foresaw.

So you're doubling down on that you have figured it out and they haven't. I am done arguing with megalomania.

 

[waldoputty]

So you're doubling down on that you have figured it out and they haven't. I am done arguing with megalomania.

i dont know why you reading into it like that.
i have already said all the teams should know about it.
it is whether they want to acknowledge it.
knowledge is one thing but it is simply a theory.
acceptance is another and acceptance is needed to take action.
may be there are many GMs who are the old fashion type.
if they refuse to accept it, then there is where opportunity lies.
in order to have an imperfect market to take advantage of, you need irrational decision-makers

teams likely do not have an economist on staff.
but the stuff is well known and all the places that sell analytics should be happy to assist with cap management.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

i dont know why you reading into it like that.
i have already said all the teams should know about it.
it is whether they want to acknowledge it.
knowledge is one thing but it is simply a theory.
acceptance is another and acceptance is needed to take action.
may be there are many GMs who are the old fashion type.
if they refuse to accept it, then there is where opportunity lies.
in order to have an imperfect market to take advantage of, you need irrational decision-makers

teams likely do not have an economist on staff.
but the stuff is well known and all the places that sell analytics should be happy to assist with cap management.

keep wishcasting if it makes you feel better.

 

[waldoputty]

keep wishcasting if it makes you feel better.

lol i guess you have run out of things to argue about

 

[Nightman]

lol i guess you have run out of things to argue about

that is his go to retreat line

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

lol i guess you have run out of things to argue about

They know about it but they don't acknowledge it?

So you have moved from you figured it out and they have not to they could know but won't acknowledge it.

At no point do you consider that you may be wrong and everything boils down to you wanting it to be a mistake that they did not sign Gilmore etc. It gets old.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

that is his go to retreat line

No, he is wishing that NFL teams do not hire accountants, economists, or a similar type to do cap projections. It is what it is.

And this line is rich coming from you. Rich in vitamin I.

 

[waldoputty]

They know about it but they don't acknowledge it?

So you have moved from you figured it out and they have not to they could know but won't acknowledge it.

At no point do you consider that you may be wrong and everything boils down to you wanting it to be a mistake that they did not sign Gilmore etc. It gets old.

you really should read what i wrote.
i have consistently said several times that they know about it but will not acknowledge it is a problem.

oh i have also consistently said it was a mistake that they did not sign a top FA because it will only get more expensive and the available FAs would only get worse.

 

[waldoputty]

No, he is wishing that NFL teams do not hire accountants, economists, or a similar type to do cap projections. It is what it is.

And this line is rich coming from you. Rich in vitamin I.

teams have plenty of accountants.
i just said the economist types are probably not employees but probably consultants and there are plenty of those around that do the analytics...
what is the big deal?

 

[waldoputty]

that is his go to retreat line

bk

did you see the model i put together?
what do you think?

if the model is correct, then many teams are acting irrationally.
that is why there is an opportunity.
in that many of the decision makers are old school.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

teams have plenty of accountants.
i just said the economist types are probably not employees but probably consultants and there are plenty of those around that do the analytics...
what is the big deal?

So your position is that they know about the cap floor and the gap but they don't acknowledge it?

And at some point they will "wise up" and then salaries are going to blow up?

 

[waldoputty]

So your position is that they know about the cap floor and the gap but they don't acknowledge it?

And at some point they will "wise up" and then salaries are going to blow up?

how could they not know about the gap when some of them paid the difference the last time around.
if they paid millions of dollars before, i suspect they are watching for that.
it should be obvious to any idiot in 2017 that many teams were 10%-20% beneath the floor for the year.
at some point, you either catch up or you pay the penalty.

yes, i believe they are not acknowledging the issue and not acting accordingly.
why - i have no idea - i cannot read minds.
will they continue to do it - i dont know but if those teams dont change, their gap will get bigger and bigger.

my guess that is due to the old fashion 'value' mentality and the predictable practice of keeping player salaries under control.
who would pay more than they have to?

at some point, i would guess the market will shift as we get closer to the floor deadline.

BK and i have been advocating get the FAs while they are cheaper and the quality is better.
obviously we think it is an imperfect market.
btw, there are many imperfect markets, like the SF real estate market in 2012 and 2013 - it was too cheap.
granted that is consumer and this is large corporations.
if my numbers are right, then there are tens of millions of gap coming up.

 

[waldoputty]

So your position is that they know about the cap floor and the gap but they don't acknowledge it?

And at some point they will "wise up" and then salaries are going to blow up?

Here is an excerpt from http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2017/3...nderstanding-the-89-cash-spending-requirement
everyone knows about this.
note the attitude: "In 2017, the Browns have only spent 61.09% of the cap, which is below the 89% requirement. That is fine, though, because they still had three more years to go. "

"
Do the Browns Need to Start Spending More?
The short answer is "Yes."

The table below outlines the Browns' cash spending for the years 2017-2020, with the data coming from Over the Cap. If you are confused by what the table means, I explain it below.

Year Cash Spend % of Cap Spent Additional Notes
2017 $102.023 million 61.09% Spend $46.607M to get to 89%
2018 $70.774 million 39.70% -------
2019 $38.581 million 20.30% -------
2020 $13.500 million 6.75% -------
Total Cash Spent $224.878 million
Amount Below 89% Requirement $429.272 million
The % of Cap Spent is calculated by taking the Cash Spend / That Year's Salary Cap. In 2017, the Browns have only spent 61.09% of the cap, which is below the 89% requirement. That is fine, though, because they still had three more years to go. However, if they’d like to get to 89% this year so that they don’t have to really unload a bunch of cash in one of the following three years, then they’d need to spend $46.607 million in cash this season to stay on pace.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

how could they not know about the gap when some of them paid the difference the last time around.
if they paid millions of dollars before, i suspect they are watching for that.
it should be obvious to any idiot in 2017 that many teams were 10%-20% beneath the floor for the year.
at some point, you either catch up or you pay the penalty.

yes, i believe they are not acknowledging the issue and not acting accordingly.
why - i have no idea - i cannot read minds.
will they continue to do it - i dont know but if those teams dont change, their gap will get bigger and bigger.

my guess that is due to the old fashion 'value' mentality and the predictable practice of keeping player salaries under control.
who would pay more than they have to?

at some point, i would guess the market will shift as we get closer to the floor deadline.

BK and i have been advocating get the FAs while they are cheaper and the quality is better.
obviously we think it is an imperfect market.
btw, there are many imperfect markets, like the SF real estate market in 2012 and 2013 - it was too cheap.
granted that is consumer and this is large corporations.
if my numbers are right, then there are tens of millions of gap coming up.

They are not acting according to your narrative. I agree.

And it is not lost on anyone that you are on a crusade to make people believe that we will rue the day we didn't spend big this FA period.

 

[waldoputty]

They are not acting according to your narrative. I agree.

And it is not lost on anyone that you are on a crusade to make people believe that we will rue the day we didn't spend big this FA period.

sure, i freely admit to the second.
but i have #s to show for it.
i.e. FAs could be much more expensive and even less high quality ones remaining due to huge salary cap space now and all the cap floor considerations.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

sure, i freely admit to the second.
but i have #s to show for it.
i.e. FAs could be much more expensive and even less high quality ones remaining due to huge salary cap space now and all the cap floor considerations.

You've got incomplete numbers two weeks into free agency this year. You are also being a sophist arguing for a conclusion rather than allowing the conclusion to arise naturally.

 

[waldoputty]

You've got incomplete numbers two weeks into free agency this year. You are also being a sophist arguing for a conclusion rather than allowing the conclusion to arise naturally.

the numbers dont lie.
you darn well know all the signing are essentially done and now you sign cheap contracts like Bell.
instead of arguing the numbers, you are calling me a sophist
at least i guess u think i am clever
rather be clever than be fuzzy (inexact)

look at my post quoting the cleveland browns fan website.
it is arguing exactly my point.
people are leaving the cap floor issue later.