Are free agents too expensive or will the $2 billion of 2018 salary cap space explode the scene

[FuzzyLumpkins]

just read the sentences i bolded.
i estimated salaries in 2018 as well as i could without having to do a cap table for all 32 teams.
that would obviously take 1 month to do as i ignore all the other teams.
instead of top down, i did it bottoms up from the free agents available.
then with those as a foundation, i went back top down to do some broad estimates.

And you estimated the 2018 salaries of being double based on what?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

stop arguing and read the thing with an open mind.
i spent 2 hours doing it and gave me a headache

I will have an open mind when you go back at look at teams' situations relative to floor in the past and how they spent relative to that demonstrating that team's spending is actually driven by not meeting the floor. Taking the 2017 salaries and without any given reason just doubling them does nothing for me.

Seems to me that teams like the Bucs, Jags, and Browns have an inordinate amount of cap space year after year after year after year and the teams that spend up to the cap do so year after year after year.

 

[waldoputty]

And you estimated the 2018 salaries of being double based on what?

I did a bottoms up analysis, found about 36 top tier FAs to get franchised tagged etc.
Then 34 2nd tier FAs that get $10M AAV,
If I did not raise their salary so much, then the 3rd tier salaries go up by an insane amount - like 3x or more.

So by balancing the different salary categories, I found a reasonable happy medium.
Even then, the top 70 free agent salaries in 2018 more than double from the top 70 in 2017.

I then incorporated multi-year contract with salary cap with 1/3 money of the contract as signing bonus, but it still resulted in the 3rd tier (#71-225) getting a 89% salary raise (not 89% of cap here) when you push 2018 cash expenditures to 89% of salary cap.

I will look at a few different scenarios tomorrow when my brain recovers too much spreadsheet work tomorrow.

 

[waldoputty]

I will have an open mind when you go back at look at teams' situations relative to floor in the past and how they spent relative to that demonstrating that team's spending is actually driven by not meeting the floor. Taking the 2017 salaries and without any given reason just doubling them does nothing for me.

Seems to me that teams like the Bucs, Jags, and Browns have an inordinate amount of cap space year after year after year after year and the teams that spend up to the cap do so year after year after year.

If I did not raise the top 70 players' salary so much, then the 3rd tier salaries go up by an insane amount - like 3x or more.
there is just too money running around.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I did a bottoms up analysis, found about 36 top tier FAs to get franchised tagged etc.
Then 34 2nd tier FAs that get $10M AAV,
If I did not raise their salary so much, then the 3rd tier salaries go up by an insane amount - like 3x or more.

So by balancing the different salary categories, I found a reasonable happy medium.
Even then, the top 70 free agent salaries in 2018 more than double from the top 70 in 2017.

I then incorporated multi-year contract with salary cap with 1/3 money of the contract as signing bonus, but it still resulted in the 3rd tier (#71-225) getting a 89% salary raise (not 89% of cap here) when you push 2018 cash expenditures to 89% of salary cap.

I will look at a few different scenarios tomorrow when my brain recovers too much spreadsheet work tomorrow.

So you just made it up based on nothing then so you could meet the assumption that was where the extra salary to meet your floor was going to come from exactly like I thought.

That is precisely what I am talking about regarding self assuming over and over again.

Your analysis and models are neither comprehensive nor exhaustive.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

If I did not raise the top 70 players' salary so much, then the 3rd tier salaries go up by an insane amount - like 3x or more.
there is just too money running around.

That you think it has to be one or the other is telling. Not considering the entire NFL playerbase and future players is easier I guess.

 

[waldoputty]

So you just made it up based on nothing then so you could meet the assumption that was where the extra salary to meet your floor was going to come from exactly like I thought.

That is precisely what I am talking about regarding self assuming over and over again.

There is too much money.
So you give raises to the top tier, the 2nd tier, the 3rd tier, or to all of them.
Since the top tier is constrained by franchise tag, raises were given to the 2nd tier and 3rd tier.
If only only give raises to only 1 of the 2nd or 3rd tier, the tier that gets the raises would have a raise in excess of 3X.
That is obviously impossible.

If you want to argue that the owners would collude and not pay much much higher salaries, then the floor argument takes place.
How much?
I will run the spreadsheet carefully tomorrow when my head stops having numbers running around in circle...

Hypothetically, if you dont give the 3rd tier any raises, then you are leaving about $250 million on the table for 2018 alone. And the 2nd tier FAs would be roughly another $250 million. That adds up to $500 million in 2018.
I am not going to go through the same effort for 2019 and 2020.
If 2019 and 2020 are the same situation as 2018, the teams could well be leaving $1.5 B on the table for the floor. That comes out to an average of $50 million per team.
If that is not black-and-white collusion, I dont know what is.
If the average team rather throw away $50 million instead of spending on free agents, fans would be pissed and the NFLPA should have an open-and-shut case in the lawsuit.

 

[okstateCowboy]

stop arguing and read the thing with an open mind.
i spent 2 hours doing it and gave me a headache

How many times have you sent your resume to the Cowboys?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

There is too much money.
So you give raises to the top tier, the 2nd tier, the 3rd tier, or to all of them.
Since the top tier is constrained by franchise tag, raises were given to the 2nd tier and 3rd tier.
If only only give raises to only 1 of the 2nd or 3rd tier, the tier that gets the raises would have a raise in excess of 3X.
That is obviously impossible.

If you want to argue that the owners would collude and not pay much much higher salaries, then the floor argument takes place.
How much?
I will run the spreadsheet carefully tomorrow when my head stops having numbers running around in circle...

Hypothetically, if you dont give the 3rd tier any raises, then you are leaving about $250 million on the table for 2018 alone. And the 2nd tier FAs would be roughly another $250 million. That adds up to $500 million in 2018.
I am not going to go through the same effort for 2019 and 2020.
If 2019 and 2020 are the same situation as 2018, the teams could well be leaving $1.5 B on the table for the floor. That comes out to an average of $50 million per team.
If that is not black-and-white collusion, I dont know what is.
If the average team rather throw away $50 million instead of spending on free agents, fans would be pissed and the NFLPA should have an open-and-shut case in the lawsuit.

And how is it that there is 'too much money?' Because of the cap and floor right?

 

[waldoputty]

How many times have you sent your resume to the Cowboys?

not quite

i spent almost 2 years recovering (mentally at this point) from a non-auto accident.
my friends in tech have been trying to pull me back to work.
but i am not ready so cowboyszone has been great for keeping me busy.

bkight13 actually is a lot better at it than me, but i am just willing to grind through the number crunching.
it took quite a while before i understood fully his statements, and particularly after running some of these models.
texas weather also does not agree with me as i have been spoiled by california.

 

[waldoputty]

And how is it that there is 'too much money?' Because of the cap and floor right?

right, but read the last paragraph in that post that answers your question.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

right, but read the last paragraph in that post that answers your question.

We have already talked about this. Cleveland, Jacksonville, and TB fans have been pissed for years. They still don't spend all their cap.

And you have no idea what it takes to win a collusion case. If teams don't want to spend then they do not want to spend. The NFLPA gets their distribution and life goes on.

This is exactly what I said before the last time you claimed that. Here you are repeating yourself anyway.

 

[waldoputty]

We have already talked about this. Cleveland, Jacksonville, and TB fans have been pissed for years. They still don't spend all their cap.

And you have no idea what it takes to win a collusion case. If teams don't want to spend then they do not want to spend. The NFLPA gets their distribution and life goes on.

This is exactly what I said before the last time you claimed that. Here you are repeating yourself anyway.

Lets say 10 teams spend at least to the floor.
You have 20 teams left.
These 20 teams may need to AVERAGE returning $75 million to the NFLPA/players.
In the history you quoted, I dont think the numbers approach $75 million.
I seem to remember a few cases of a few million or at most $10 million

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Lets say 10 teams spend at least to the floor.
You have 20 teams left.
These 20 teams may need to AVERAGE returning $75 million to the NFLPA/players.
In the history you quoted, I dont think the numbers approach $75 million.
I seem to remember a few cases of a few million or at most $10 million

I will look at the overthecap numbers again when the season starts. I know that your current starting point does not include a lot that still has to happen between now and then.

By your reckoning the salaries for this year should have blown up and they haven't. They have been modest relative to the cap increase.

 

[waldoputty]

I will look at the overthecap numbers again when the season starts. I know that your current starting point does not include a lot that still has to happen between now and then.

By your reckoning the salaries for this year should have blown up and they haven't. They have been modest relative to the cap increase.

no, 2017 is only about $300 million short of the floor - i did that model a couple days ago.
and they are not quite done spending either.
again, there is no blowing up until they recognize the problem and then try to do something about it.
the GMs cannot be dumb but i dont understand why this is happening

i dont know why 2018 blows up.
but those are the numbers.
it does appear to be a classic hockey stick.
perhaps the owners have been suppressing salaries too well.
if i did not screw up, i have no idea what the owners are going to do.
May be come 2020, they start doing multiyear contract that are totally frontloaded.
e.g. year 1 - 20 million, year 2 - 1 million, year 3 1 million
there are obvious risks to stuff like that like the player quits performing or simply retires

 

[waldoputty]

I will look at the overthecap numbers again when the season starts. I know that your current starting point does not include a lot that still has to happen between now and then.

By your reckoning the salaries for this year should have blown up and they haven't. They have been modest relative to the cap increase.

obviously if this is correct, we better start locking up class of 2016 really early - like before 2018 season.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

no, 2017 is only about $300 million short of the floor - i did that model a couple days ago.
and they are not quite done spending either.
again, there is no blowing up until they recognize the problem and then try to do something about it.
the GMs cannot be dumb but i dont understand why this is happening

i dont know why 2018 blows up.
but those are the numbers.
it does appear to be a classic hockey stick.
perhaps the owners have been suppressing salaries too well.
if i did not screw up, i have no idea what the owners are going to do.
May be come 2020, they start doing multiyear contract that are totally frontloaded.
e.g. year 1 - 20 million, year 2 - 1 million, year 3 1 million
there are obvious risks to stuff like that like the player quits performing or simply retires

So you have have figured out the "problem" but they haven't. smh.

As I keep saying this is not their first rodeo, they have accountants and economists on staff but you are one step ahead of them. . . .

 

[waldoputty]

So you have have figured out the "problem" but they haven't. smh.

As I keep saying this is not their first rodeo, they have accountants and economists on staff but you are one step ahead of them. . . .

no they should be well aware of it.
just refuse to recognize it is a problem.
worry about it when it gets closer attitude.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

no they should be well aware of it.
just refuse to recognize it is a problem.
worry about it when it gets closer attitude.

If they can account for future years as we all know they do and don't think it's a problem then what would make them change?

If they don't care they don't care. Again they have already been through this before.

 

[waldoputty]

If they can account for future years as we all know they do and don't think it's a problem then what would make them change?

If they don't care they don't care. Again they have already been through this before.

first of all, the cowboys do not have a floor problem.
it is the other teams.
we have no idea how these teams operate.
cleveland had revenues of 300M a few years ago.
we have no idea what their margins are.
we have no what they operating costs are.
we have no idea what their staff looks like.

for a number of teams, it seems they have ignore the floor issues in 2017
they may well ignore the floor issues in 2018.
the floor blowing things up is not a conceptually difficult to predict thing.