News: Are there hidden dangers to the Cowboys long view approach to the 2016 offseason?

[CCBoy]

I'd be hyped if Dallas traded down, then select Zeke or Lynch, after that trade up and select Zeke or Lynch. BET!

Naw, that is something that Jimmy Johnson tried, picking two top quarterbacks and using them as game cocks...and he almost lost Troy Aikman because of it.

 

[rockj7]

Are there hidden dangers to the Cowboys long view approach to the 2016 offseason?

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2016/3/28/11315824/the-dangers-of-the-long-view



The Cowboys' decision making triumvirate of Stephen Jones, Will McClay, and Jason Garrett has drawn a great deal of praise from fans and media alike for their approach to building the Cowboys roster. Spending three first-round picks in four years on offensive linemen, laying low in free agency, and avoiding the "splash" moves that Jerry Jones was so well known for through the first 20 years or so of his ownership of the team. These decisions are the ones that led to the team's successful 2014 season, and had them considered Super Bowl contenders going into 2015.

As the 2016 offseason has progressed, many fans, bloggers, and media members have pointed to things like needing to re-sign those same offensive linemen as the reason for the lack of early free agent activity, claiming the team is playing the "smart" long-view on these decisions. The thought behind this is that making moves in free agency, or other moves geared towards helping the team win in the short-term will somehow, financially or otherwise, prevent them from being contenders for the long-term, and that the risks of perhaps parting with a young studly offensive lineman, although unlikely, present too high a cost to justify an aggressive move towards seeking more immediate returns.

But is this approach ignoring other costs, and other risks that could be even more detrimental to the short- and long-term success of the team?

Let's imagine for a moment that the Cowboys are looking long-term at the year 2018 as the start of their run of success with the players they've recently acquired. How many players seen now as key contributors, even Pro Bowlers or All-Pros will no longer be a key aspect of the winning formula for the team by that point? The following table lists a group of players, all likely to be either a) no longer with the team, or b) experiencing significant declines in performance due to age, by the year 2018.





Player/Position/2016 Age/Free Agent Year/2018 /Age
Tony Romo/QB/36/2020/38
Jason Witten/TE/34/2018/36
Doug Free/OT/32/2018/34
Sean Lee/LB/30/2020/32
Brandon Carr/CB/30/2017/32
Orlando Scandrick/CB/29/2020/31
Cedric Thornton/DT/28/2020/30
Barry Church/SS/28/2017/30
Dez BryantWR/27/2020/29
Terrance Williams/WR/27/2017/29
(Ages are as of Week 1 of the Regular Season)...

if you draft a QB this year and with some luck that takes care of your QB position
You can find Witts replacement in the next two drafts
Chaz Green if we hit replaces Free
Next years draft or the year after look for Lees successor

This years draft and next years draft and next years free agency look to replace Carr and Scandricks replacements

Find a stud 1Tech in this years draft that is deep to replace Thortons in 2 to 3 years

Churches replacement should be found in thi years draft

Dez is a freak he will play at a high level for the next 6 yrs at least

Williams replacement should be found this year or next years draft

The next two years drafts are critical to our long term future

 

[cowboyblue22]

most players drafted in their rookie year don't manage to contribute much to a team sometimes you hit on one that does. this defense is unable to get much pressure on a qb and seldom gets turnovers and has a hard time getting of the field on third down. until they can fix those issues superbowls are a pipe dream.

 

[conner01]

If you hit with a QB in the draft then I really don't agree with the article. You look at the list of players over or about to be over 30 and think "OH NO!" but in reality you still have a team with 3 draft classes to replace these players, a team that's been managing the cap to allow for future moves, and a team that's drafted well (at least in early rounds) in recent years. This team shouldn't miss a beat in a couple years, provided they find the QB.

That's the real key. If you have a QB you have the key to building a team. If you don't have a QB then you aren't building a team that can win a super bowl.
It's takes many other pieces but the fastest and most consistent way to build a team is around your QB

 

[Stash]

That's the real key. If you have a QB you have the key to building a team. If you don't have a QB then you aren't building a team that can win a super bowl.
It's takes many other pieces but the fastest and most consistent way to build a team is around your QB

Yep.

You're either one of the 'have's' or one of the 'have not's'.

Good ones are such a rare commodity that teams are now paying huge money for 'maybe's' like Bradford, Cousins, and Osweiler. How that reality still hasn't set in for some people continues to amaze me.

 

[Sydla]

If you hit with a QB in the draft then I really don't agree with the article. You look at the list of players over or about to be over 30 and think "OH NO!" but in reality you still have a team with 3 draft classes to replace these players, a team that's been managing the cap to allow for future moves, and a team that's drafted well (at least in early rounds) in recent years. This team shouldn't miss a beat in a couple years, provided they find the QB.

Exactly. If they draft Goff or Wentz and either is a competent NFL QB, with this young OL and Bryant still young, there is no question this team can still be competitive.

And if they draft smart in the mid to later rounds, they easily could be a title contender for any stretch of time.

But it all comes back to the QB and how silly the Cowboys are if they think Romo really has 5 years left in him and pass on a QB they think can be a franchise QB because they think they can fix that issue at a later time.

 

[Sydla]

Naw, that is something that Jimmy Johnson tried, picking two top quarterbacks and using them as game cocks...and he almost lost Troy Aikman because of it.

Where did the guy have the Cowboys drafting two QBs?

 

[robbieruff]

Where did the guy have the Cowboys drafting two QBs?

I think he's referring to Aikman and then taking Steve Walsh in supplemental draft that same year.

 

[Sydla]

I think he's referring to Aikman and then taking Steve Walsh in supplemental draft that same year.

I know what he's referencing, but I am confused as to what that had to do with the post he responded to where the poster suggested taking Elliott and Lynch in this draft after making trades.

 

[Stash]

Exactly. If they draft Goff or Wentz and either is a competent NFL QB, with this young OL and Bryant still young, there is no question this team can still be competitive.

And if they draft smart in the mid to later rounds, they easily could be a title contender for any stretch of time.

But it all comes back to the QB and how silly the Cowboys are if they think Romo really has 5 years left in him and pass on a QB they think can be a franchise QB because they think they can fix that issue at a later time.

They've tried cheating the system when it comes to quarterback. And they failed repeatedly.

Repeated retread failures like Tony Banks and Ryan Leaf, and then middle of the road draft picks wasted on failed baseball players like Carter, Hutchinson, and Henson.

Even Parcells struggled to figure it out, going to the well of his former quarterbacks like Testaverde and Bledsoe before giving Romo a shot.

If not for Sean Payton, this team would very likely still be spinning their wheels at the QB position and hopefully, ownership and front office realize it and never want to go back there.

 

[CCBoy]

I know what he's referencing, but I am confused as to what that had to do with the post he responded to where the poster suggested taking Elliott and Lynch in this draft after making trades.

If you are looking for a football answer...would the first round providing both the top running back and a future quarterback be your route...

as to the Jimmy Johnson reference, Jason is building the character of a little different team than did Jimmy. They both play football, but Jimmy brought hometown with him when he first arrived with Jerry in Dallas. Coaching does matter, and that was a thought provoker. I know, that is a very painful experience for some...but it wasn't insult to begin with.

Grooming a quarterback, is a special thing. That brought that out in plain view...care to comment about that as well?

I know...run quickly to a protective mode and return to tossing out personal advantage comments. I kid, but some need to open up to discussive directions, instead of trying to abstractly challenge everything that is actually a comment about something on football, but reflects on subject as well.

You for a new and grooming lead quarterback?

 

[Idgit]

most players drafted in their rookie year don't manage to contribute much to a team sometimes you hit on one that does. this defense is unable to get much pressure on a qb and seldom gets turnovers and has a hard time getting of the field on third down. until they can fix those issues superbowls are a pipe dream.

I'd also reject this notion. Where did it get decided that rookies 'don't contribute much to teams'? That's silly.

Now, players obviously develop and get better after they enter the league and football becomes a full time job with all of the best resources, but teams get immediate contributions from impact rookies all the time.

You're also characterizing our defense wrong, unless you're specifically talking about the 2015 version. Historically, it's a system that does a good job with turnovers and last year was the dramatic anomaly. I'm not suggesting that is going to change, because I don't know if it will and I still have a hard time understanding what really happened with TOs last year, but it's a defense designed to take the ball away a lot.

 

[CCBoy]

if you draft a QB this year and with some luck that takes care of your QB position
You can find Witts replacement in the next two drafts
Chaz Green if we hit replaces Free
Next years draft or the year after look for Lees successor

This years draft and next years draft and next years free agency look to replace Carr and Scandricks replacements

Find a stud 1Tech in this years draft that is deep to replace Thortons in 2 to 3 years

Churches replacement should be found in thi years draft

Dez is a freak he will play at a high level for the next 6 yrs at least

Williams replacement should be found this year or next years draft

The next two years drafts are critical to our long term future

They are also critical for players such as Tony Romo and Jason Witten.

 

[Risen Star]

Kind of shoots down the theory some still believe that Jerry is still calling the shots.

Yeah.

If you believe a fan.

 

[Risen Star]

I have a theory. That Jerry Jones is in charge of all things Cowboys.

What can I say? I've always been a conspiracy theorist.

 

[Sydla]

If you are looking for a football answer...would the first round providing both the top running back and a future quarterback be your route...

as to the Jimmy Johnson reference, Jason is building the character of a little different team than did Jimmy. They both play football, but Jimmy brought hometown with him when he first arrived with Jerry in Dallas. Coaching does matter, and that was a thought provoker. I know, that is a very painful experience for some...but it wasn't insult to begin with.

Grooming a quarterback, is a special thing. That brought that out in plain view...care to comment about that as well?

I know...run quickly to a protective mode and return to tossing out personal advantage comments. I kid, but some need to open up to discussive directions, instead of trying to abstractly challenge everything that is actually a comment about something on football, but reflects on subject as well.

You for a new and grooming lead quarterback?

But you talked about referenced Johnson taking two QBs and that's not what the poster was referencing at all as he talked about drafting a TB and QB. It was a peculiar comment by you.

And yes, if my scouts tell me that Wentz or Goff or Lynch is a franchise caliber QB and I have an opportunity to draft one, ABSOLUTELY, I take the QB and let him sit behind Romo for a few years and learn the system. It's a no brainer.

 

[Sydla]

I have a theory. That Jerry Jones is in charge of all things Cowboys.

What can I say? I've always been a conspiracy theorist.

I think if Jerry was sole ruler of his domain, this board would have 20 threads wondering why the hell we haven't cut Johnny Manziel yet.

 

[Risen Star]

I think if Jerry was sole ruler of his domain, this board would have 20 threads wondering why the hell we haven't cut Johnny Manziel yet.

That's nice.

I think if Jerry was so willing to relinquish his power we wouldn't see 20 years of a refusing to hire a real General Manager. Someone so obsessed with control is certain to use it.

But that's just my theory. You would need to go to Blogging the Boys to get the real truth. I'm only going on job titles and reality.

 

[9darter]

The Cowboys' decision making triumvirate of Stephen Jones, Will McClay, and Jason Garrett

Stopped reading.

Clueless nonsense.

 

[Sydla]

That's nice.

I think if Jerry was so willing to relinquish his power we wouldn't see 20 years of a refusing to hire a real General Manager. Someone so obsessed with control is certain to use it.

But that's just my theory. You would need to go to Blogging the Boys to get the real truth. I'm only going on job titles and reality.

I differ slightly in that I think he's willing and has given up control................ but only to a family member.