Artificial Intelligence is Re-Shaping the World

[dsturgeon]

It hasnt hit pc market yet at consumer level.

that is not what they are for, and it wont happen. Search for pictures of the inside of quantum computer. It is cool looking

 

[Reality]

It hasnt hit pc market yet at consumer level.

I do not think you are going to see quantum computers in desktop and laptop PCs for a couple of reasons.

First, computers are moving back to the old mainframe->terminal concepts as wireless technology gets larger and faster and handheld devices get smaller and more portable and processing needs and requirements increase to support higher quality and faster performance.

The only difference is that instead of one big mainframe server like it was long ago, the "servers" are being clustered together to expand horizontally with infinite servers rather than vertically with one server.

Second, quantum computers have to operate at absolute zero which is -459 degrees farenheit, and even if that type of cooling technology could be placed into a small portable device (and it cannot at this point), there is no way you would ever want consumers handling it as would be extremely dangerous if not handled correctly.

The future of consumer computers is central computing whether it be gaming, production or entertainment.

Portable computers will still have functionality on their own, but they will rely heavily on processed and cached data from central data storage services while heavier processing will be gated behind having live access to central computing services.

We think we are connected now. Just wait a few years.

 

[dsturgeon]

I do not think you are going to see quantum computers in desktop and laptop PCs for a couple of reasons.

First, computers are moving back to the old mainframe->terminal concepts as wireless technology gets larger and faster and handheld devices get smaller and more portable and processing needs and requirements increase to support higher quality and faster performance.

The only difference is that instead of one big mainframe server like it was long ago, the "servers" are being clustered together to expand horizontally with infinite servers rather than vertically with one server.

Second, quantum computers have to operate at absolute zero which is -459 degrees farenheit, and even if that type of cooling technology could be placed into a small portable device (and it cannot at this point), there is no way you would ever want consumers handling it as would be extremely dangerous if not handled correctly.

The future of consumer computers is central computing whether it be gaming, production or entertainment.

Portable computers will still have functionality on their own, but they will rely heavily on processed and cached data from central data storage services while heavier processing will be gated behind having live access to central computing services.

We think we are connected now. Just wait a few years.

i dont think we are too far off from the computer going away and some 3d hologram voice activation device will take over. That is combination with augmented reality glasses or contacts. Maybe a 3d projection from phones

 

[T-RO]

On a "lighter side"....if you don't think through all the implications...

 

[T-RO]

If anyone doubts the messages in this video...Check the names and credentials of the experts featured in this documentary. There are about 8 top-of-field experts, in addition to stupid media and political folks.

 

[VaqueroTD]

So I spent a couple thousand dollars about two years ago for the latest and greatest robot helpers… determined to make my life easier. Bought a motorized pool cleaner Triton that could figure out where to clean, bought the best Roomba and Braava, the self-mapping vacuum and mops. And for a while, life was pretty good. The Triton broke early this year, and the Braava just broke leaving the Roomba as the last robot standing. Yeah.. not too worried yet about AI and robots. Figure out how to make better floor and pool cleaners before we get ahead of ourselves with humanoid robots and independent critical-thinking computers.

 

[dsturgeon]

So I spent a couple thousand dollars about two years ago for the latest and greatest robot helpers… determined to make my life easier. Bought a motorized pool cleaner Triton that could figure out where to clean, bought the best Roomba and Braava, the self-mapping vacuum and mops. And for a while, life was pretty good. The Triton broke early this year, and the Braava just broke leaving the Roomba as the last robot standing. Yeah.. not too worried yet about AI and robots. Figure out how to make better floor and pool cleaners before we get ahead of ourselves with humanoid robots and independent critical-thinking computers.

You shouldn't be worried about any a.i. or robot you might own. You should worry about the ones you will never own, but will influence your life.

For example:

Lets say someone made a virus and a vaccine using an a.i program on a quantum computer, and released both. They used an a.i. program like googles alpha fold to come up with the protein structure, and released it into the population.

Would you be worried about those a.i. programs? In fear of a created a.i. virus, would you take an a.i. created vaccine?

 

[T-RO]

The Triton broke early this year, and the Braava just broke leaving the Roomba as the last robot standing. Yeah.. not too worried yet about AI and robots. Figure out how to make better floor and pool cleaners before we get ahead of ourselves with humanoid robots and independent critical-thinking computers.

There's a Roomba and then there's stuff like this:

-AI Fighter pilots.Yes the US military really does have a program called SkyBorg. Think that's a sci-fi joke? Read about it here:
https://www.wired.com/story/us-air-force-skyborg-vista-ai-fighter-jets/


-Drone Farmers

-AI Drones are also already in wide military use. And for surveillance.

-Robo-Dogs as Sniper


Robotics see far better than humans in key ways: more wavelengths, heat sensors, mega zoom cameras etc.
Robotics have far better reaction time, don't need to sleep.

But really this thread isn't about robotics.

Its about advanced AI

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

Just stumbled across this thread and thought I would contribute my two cents.

I am a software engineer and as such, I enjoy experimenting with new cutting edge technologies in my field as they become available. I’ve also done quite of bit of applied machine learning work, including working with neural networks, and I had come to think of most ML models as useful tools, but far from a silver bullet in most scenarios.

I was quite impressed with GPT4 once it became publicly available and wondered how I could use it to augment/enhance my daily work flow, so I started playing around with it. I quickly realized it was quite good at helping me debug esoteric errors, explaining new concepts to me, or writing snippets of code, but I wished it could somehow be aware of the context of the code bases I was working on and make suggestions as I coded.

I did some research and stumbled across a code editor extension called GitHub Copilot. Copilot integratea directly with my workspace and leverages an LLM similar to GPT4 in order to make active, unprompted suggestions as you program. Often times I find myself writing the first line of a section of code when Copilot suggest to me an entire 20, 30, or even 40 line block of code that completes my thought before I could even complete it myself. Most of the time it is exactly what I was looking for. It also usually writes code that imitates the style you use in the rest of the code base.

It also writes tests for functions and programs extremely efficiently (which is helpful because writing tests is the most boring part of the job) and I would say has actually made me quite a bit more productive by eliminating some of the more tedious parts of the job.

While Copilot is a useful tool that speeds up my daily work and allows me to increase my output, it is far from being a replacement for software engineers. I don’t know if this will be the case forever though. Apparently there is a new version of Copilot coming out soon called CopilotX which will be leveraging a significantly improved LLM model under the hood. Allegedly, this model will make Copilot v1 look like child’s play and has the chance to actually begin to threaten software engineering jobs.

I have no reservations about saying that within 10 years, companies will have found ways to utilize LLMs to replace much of the work done by junior developers while systems level design and cutting edge work will still be done by mid and senior level engineers. This has the potential to create quite a bit of unemployment in tech given how many new CS degrees are being awarded every year. I also think that in the not so distant future, many of the lower skill white collar (or even with a little bit of robotics mixed in, blue collar) positions that are around today may cease to exist.

Without a doubt, I believe that we are living on the precipice of a brave new world and we would be wise to consider the potential ramifications of mass adoption of a technology that will likely be able to replace human beings in a wide variety of industries within another decade or two. Well paying jobs, and the upward social mobility they provide, may begin to become much more scarce in the future and I am not so sure about what may replace them.

While LLMs have the potential to usher in a new era of human prosperity and hyper productivity, they also have the potential to bring about disastrous consequences.

I am sure people said the same thing about the rifle, the steam engine, electricity, the automobile, human flight, or any other revolutionary technology, but in my opinion, there is something very different about this one. I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

[VaqueroTD]

Just stumbled across this thread and thought I would contribute my two cents.

I am a software engineer and as such, I enjoy experimenting with new cutting edge technologies in my field as they become available. I’ve also done quite of bit of applied machine learning work, including working with neural networks, and I had come to think of most ML models as useful tools, but far from a silver bullet in most scenarios.

I was quite impressed with GPT4 once it became publicly available and wondered how I could use it to augment/enhance my daily work flow, so I started playing around with it. I quickly realized it was quite good at helping me debug esoteric errors, explaining new concepts to me, or writing snippets of code, but I wished it could somehow be aware of the context of the code bases I was working on and make suggestions as I coded.

I did some research and stumbled across a code editor extension called GitHub Copilot. Copilot integratea directly with my workspace and leverages an LLM similar to GPT4 in order to make active, unprompted suggestions as you program. Often times I find myself writing the first line of a section of code when Copilot suggest to me an entire 20, 30, or even 40 line block of code that completes my thought before I could even complete it myself. Most of the time it is exactly what I was looking for. It also usually writes code that imitates the style you use in the rest of the code base.

It also writes tests for functions and programs extremely efficiently (which is helpful because writing tests is the most boring part of the job) and I would say has actually made me quite a bit more productive by eliminating some of the more tedious parts of the job.

While Copilot is a useful tool that speeds up my daily work and allows me to increase my output, it is far from being a replacement for software engineers. I don’t know if this will be the case forever though. Apparently there is a new version of Copilot coming out soon called CopilotX which will be leveraging a significantly improved LLM model under the hood. Allegedly, this model will make Copilot v1 look like child’s play and has the chance to actually begin to threaten software engineering jobs.

I have no reservations about saying that within 10 years, companies will have found ways to utilize LLMs to replace much of the work done by junior developers while systems level design and cutting edge work will still be done by mid and senior level engineers. This has the potential to create quite a bit of unemployment in tech given how many new CS degrees are being awarded every year. I also think that in the not so distant future, many of the lower skill white collar (or even with a little bit of robotics mixed in, blue collar) positions that are around today may cease to exist.

Without a doubt, I believe that we are living on the precipice of a brave new world and we would be wise to consider the potential ramifications of mass adoption of a technology that will likely be able to replace human beings in a wide variety of industries within another decade or two. Well paying jobs, and the upward social mobility they provide, may begin to become much more scarce in the future and I am not so sure about what may replace them.

While LLMs have the potential to usher in a new era of human prosperity and hyper productivity, they also have the potential to bring about disastrous consequences.

I am sure people said the same thing about the rifle, the steam engine, electricity, the automobile, human flight, or any other revolutionary technology, but in my opinion, there is something very different about this one. I guess we will have to wait and see.

Good stuff.

Will certainly require industrialized countries to rethink employment, the work force, and economics.

Every major company in existence is trying to automate their work force, regardless of industry.

Went from agrarian society to working in factories, and factories to working in technology. Is there even a possible next step if the tech jobs are all automated?

When the public finally catches on and stops blaming Ecuador, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[BleedSilverandBlue]

Went from agrarian society to working in factories, and factories to working in technology. Is there even a possible next step if the tech jobs are all automated?

Herein lies the problem. While the Industrial Revolution caused many jobs to cease to exist, it gave rise to countless others. When it comes to a new era of nearly general artificial intelligence, it is unclear, and in my opinion, unlikely, that the creation of novel jobs and industries will outpace the destruction of existing ones.

While I’m mainly highlighting the negative consequences of LLMs, their potential applications in fields like drug discovery, cancer treatment, or material science could be revolutionary.

Regardless of the potential of LLMs and hyper intelligent AI to dramatically increase productivity in many industries and spur scientific breakthroughs, I think there is a key question we must ask ourselves as a society: is a world where the role of humans is mostly replaced by machines one that we really want to live in?

This question may not be relevant for 10, 20, 30, or even 100 years, but I believe this is the world we will find ourselves in eventually if the proper precautions are not taken.

I leave you with an even more somber thought. Most of the reason titans of industry and government attempt to provide a decent quality of life for their workers and citizens is because they are a necessary resource when it comes to generating wealth and power for themselves. If human intellect and hands are by and large no longer necessary to do this, what incentive do they have to maintain this quality of life? I would argue there is none.

 

[dsturgeon]

Herein lies the problem. While the Industrial Revolution caused many jobs to cease to exist, it gave rise to countless others. When it comes to a new era of nearly general artificial intelligence, it is unclear, and in my opinion, unlikely, that the creation of novel jobs and industries will outpace the destruction of existing ones.

While I’m mainly highlighting the negative consequences of LLMs, their potential applications in fields like drug discovery, cancer treatment, or material science could be revolutionary.

Regardless of the potential of LLMs and hyper intelligent AI to dramatically increase productivity in many industries and spur scientific breakthroughs, I think there is a key question we must ask ourselves as a society: is a world where the role of humans is mostly replaced by machines one that we really want to live in?

This question may not be relevant for 10, 20, 30, or even 100 years, but I believe this is the world we will find ourselves in eventually if the proper precautions are not taken.

I leave you with an even more somber thought. Most of the reason titans of industry and government attempt to provide a decent quality of life for their workers and citizens is because they are a necessary resource when it comes to generating wealth and power for themselves. If human intellect and hands are by and large no longer necessary to do this, what incentive do they have to maintain this quality of life? I would argue there is none.

There is a worldwide organization that has been around for about 50 years training young world leaders and infiltrating governments and other places of power with their acolytes. They lay claim to the 4th industrial revolution or the 4th reich.

I don't think looking at the future through the eyes of the current or past freedoms and structure of america is profitable. I think it is more fruitful to look to the future of A.I.'s effect on human life through the world order changing

 

[VaqueroTD]

They’ve even automated guacamole! By God, is nothing sacred?!

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/13/business/chipotle-avocado-robot-guacamole/index.html

 

[dsturgeon]

They’ve even automated guacamole! By God, is nothing sacred?!

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/13/business/chipotle-avocado-robot-guacamole/index.html

maybe it will cut down the cost they charge for guacamole

 

[T-RO]

I have no reservations about saying that within 10 years, companies will have found ways to utilize LLMs to replace much of the work done by junior developers while systems level design and cutting edge work will still be done by mid and senior level engineers. This has the potential to create quite a bit of unemployment in tech given how many new CS degrees are being awarded every year. I also think that in the not so distant future, many of the lower skill white collar (or even with a little bit of robotics mixed in, blue collar) positions that are around today may cease to exist.

Without a doubt, I believe that we are living on the precipice of a brave new world and we would be wise to consider the potential ramifications of mass adoption of a technology that will likely be able to replace human beings in a wide variety of industries within another decade or two. Well paying jobs, and the upward social mobility they provide, may begin to become much more scarce in the future and I am not so sure about what may replace them.

While LLMs have the potential to usher in a new era of human prosperity and hyper productivity, they also have the potential to bring about disastrous consequences.

I am sure people said the same thing about the rifle, the steam engine, electricity, the automobile, human flight, or any other revolutionary technology, but in my opinion, there is something very different about this one.

Agreed on all points. And the thing is...these developments in most cases arrive faster than even those in the field predict. Sometimes far faster.

The other consideration/concern: Will the elites in Silicon Valley keep the best AI systems (or features) for themself and for governments? That would seem the most likely approach. Intelligence is money. Intelligence is power.

 

[quickccc]

Skynet is going to suck

Yep, ..Only a matter of time ... so watch who you date ..

 

[quickccc]

We're already preparing for drones that will be delivering air borne to ...and stores like Krogers and Wal Mart using " driver-less" trucks that deliver ..

Soon will there no longer be the need for Uber and Lyft with human drivers ?

And eventually planes with no human pilots ? .. (Yikes!)

 

[dsturgeon]

We're already preparing for drones that will be delivering air borne to ...and stores like Krogers and Wal Mart using " driver-less" trucks that deliver ..

Soon will there no longer be the need for Uber and Lyft with human drivers ?

And eventually planes with no human pilots ? .. (Yikes!)

You do not need more than that in a 15minutes city. There is no reason for you to travel and have access to non environmentally regulated transportation.

 

[T-RO]

The Air Force's new AI piloted drone.

 

[dsturgeon]

The Air Force's new AI piloted drone.

That drone looks awesome. I am not sure of the size of that, but as they get closer to full size or bigger, not having a cockpit should look pretty sharp.

Imagine a drone swarm of 10 of those coming at a city, convoy, or something

I wonder if they are now or are going to make duel functioning planes that have the ability to be piloted by both a.i. and humans, and the cost comparison of all 3.