Avatar will become the #2 grossing movie all time (worldwide)

[Kevinicus]

This is what I always wondered about when they start with the highest grossing bit. Is it balanced based on the cost difference from then to now? ***** in the seats say's more than anything if not.

Boxofficemojo.com lets you see where they rank, adjusted for inflation. It even lets you see how they'd rank based on any year, so you could see what Avatar would have brought in if it was released in 1930.

Avatar is I believe 26th adjusted for inflation, Titanic is number 6 (GwtW is #1, Star Wars is #2).

 

[vta]

Boxofficemojo.com lets you see where they rank, adjusted for inflation. It even lets you see how they'd rank based on any year, so you could see what Avatar would have brought in if it was released in 1930.

Avatar is I believe 26th adjusted for inflation, Titanic is number 6 (GwtW is #1, Star Wars is #2).

Interesting website. Thanks.

 

[theogt]

Its also charging the double price...
Didn't it sell only 55% of the seats of Titanic thus far?

Titanic also didn't have to compete with giant HD flat-screens in almost every household, with Netflix, Blockbuster, OnDemand, etc.

The real comparison shouldn't be inflation adjusted. It should be value over average. I doubt there's any site that does that.

 

[rantanamo]

There are some bad facts in this thread. Its already been calculated that the actual dollar affect of 3D has been about 10%. Avatar will likely beat Titanic based on that as well.

Not to mention Titanic was out for like a year, videos weren't released as quickly as they are, pirating movies was pretty much non-existent.

There's a reason adjusted is rarely mentioned, and that's because its not a good comparison point. Older movies like Gone With the Wind not only faced basically no entertainment competition, but faced very little box office competition, and like Star Wars and E.T. Enjoyed at least 3 releases. Gone With the Wind had 6 theatrical runs at times when there was NO home video, meaning that was the only way to see them. You can download Avatar from the bootleg circuit right now. Not to mention they didn't have to deal with such expensive tickets.

I know many want to dismiss this boxoffice run by Avatar, but you can't. This has happened in less than 2 months. Remember, this movie just came out December 19th.

 

[Kevinicus]

There are some bad facts in this thread. Its already been calculated that the actual dollar affect of 3D has been about 10%. Avatar will likely beat Titanic based on that as well.

Where did you get that number? I've seen several reports that over 70% of the tickets sold for Avatar were for 3D or IMAX viewings. When you figure that the average additional charge for 3D is between $3-5 and IMAX is slightly higher than that then you're looking at a significant boost in grosses. Easily more than 10%.

 

[theogt]

Where did you get that number? I've seen several reports that over 70% of the tickets sold for Avatar were for 3D or IMAX viewings. When you figure that the average additional charge for 3D is between $3-5 and IMAX is slightly higher than that then you're looking at a significant boost in grosses. Easily more than 10%.

If 3D ticket sales account for 75% of ticket sales, and 3D tickets are 40% more than regular tickets, then the additional cost of 3D ticket sales accounts for about 20% of the cash total.

 

[Mavs Man]

Titanic also didn't have to compete with giant HD flat-screens in almost every household, with Netflix, Blockbuster, OnDemand, etc.

The real comparison shouldn't be inflation adjusted. It should be value over average. I doubt there's any site that does that.

+1

"Inflation adjusted" means all things being equal, an earlier year dollar amount would equal X amount today. But the Hollywood box office model has changed CONSIDERABLY in the past 20-30 years, and even more so if you go all the way back to 1939 and GWTW.

Titanic didn't have Netflix, DVDs, redbox, substantial internet movie piracy, or video rentals available 4-6 months after theater release. Also, it was in wide release in theaters for nearly a year (in limited release, over a year) compared to six months today, and that's only for the big boys who actually make money.

E.T., Star Wars and Jaws did not have to compete with 300 plus cable/statellite TV stations, video games or video rental stores.

Gone with the Wind did not even have to compete with TV. Main competition: radio or live stage productions.

The way I see this argument is similar to comparing sports teams from different eras - you can't do it. It's not apples to apples, so the best you can do is compare teams to teams from the same era and how much they dominated the competition.

And looking at it that way, Avatar is definitely in the conversation of best box office runs of all-time, just over a month into it. As far as major competition this decade, The Dark Knight had an amazing theater release in 2008. Well, Avatar pistol whipped that movie into submission in less than a month, so there you go.

 

[magwhump]

I still haven't seen it.
Been wanting to, but life always seems to get in the way.

 

[rantanamo]

If 3D ticket sales account for 75% of ticket sales, and 3D tickets are 40% more than regular tickets, then the additional cost of 3D ticket sales accounts for about 20% of the cash total.

Got the number just reading the boards(looking again its something like 13%, where everyone really goes crazy over the numbers. I think some don't realize that IMAX theaters are the least numerous theaters and have the highest prices. Most showings were in the IMAX light(more theaters than IMAX but still few compared to regular theaters) or the vast majority in regular theaters using RealD 3D, which in some theaters is only $1 more than normal prices. That's why its not 20% but much less. Amazing still considering people are willing to pay more in such big numbers.

 

[theogt]

Got the number just reading the boards(looking again its something like 13%, where everyone really goes crazy over the numbers. I think some don't realize that IMAX theaters are the least numerous theaters and have the highest prices. Most showings were in the IMAX light(more theaters than IMAX but still few compared to regular theaters) or the vast majority in regular theaters using RealD 3D, which in some theaters is only $1 more than normal prices. That's why its not 20% but much less. Amazing still considering people are willing to pay more in such big numbers.

What board?

My numbers didn't take into account IMAX at all. The number of 3D ticket purchases may be less than 75%, I have no idea. That does seem to be the general consensus from what I can tell via google.

 

[rantanamo]

What board?

My numbers didn't take into account IMAX at all. The number of 3D ticket purchases may be less than 75%, I have no idea. That does seem to be the general consensus from what I can tell via google.

The "3D premium" for Avatar tickets is far overrated. There is a limited number of showing in full IMAX 3D and even LieMax. The vast majority are seeing it in RealD 3D or in 2D, both are usually at normal ticket price. Thus there is a lot of money from 3D, but not as much as some articles make it seem. You'd think all tickets for Avatar are $14-$16 dollars, when those are the least numerous. There's usually only 1 or 2 full IMAX theaters in most metros if they have any.

 

[theogt]

The "3D premium" for Avatar tickets is far overrated. There is a limited number of showing in full IMAX 3D and even LieMax. The vast majority are seeing it in RealD 3D or in 2D, both are usually at normal ticket price. Thus there is a lot of money from 3D, but not as much as some articles make it seem. You'd think all tickets for Avatar are $14-$16 dollars, when those are the least numerous. There's usually only 1 or 2 full IMAX theaters in most metros if they have any.

"Normal 3D" (i.e., not IMAX) ticket prices are a good bit higher than 2D prices. And according to everything I've seen the vast majority of ticket sales have been in "normal 3D."

You're right that IMAX doesn't account for much of the ticket sales. But your run of the mill 3D ticket sales are high and do account for more of the ticket sales.

 

[the kid 05]

"Normal 3D" (i.e., not IMAX) ticket prices are a good bit higher than 2D prices. And according to everything I've seen the vast majority of ticket sales have been in "normal 3D."

You're right that IMAX doesn't account for much of the ticket sales. But your run of the mill 3D ticket sales are high and do account for more of the ticket sales.

our 3d prices at the theater i work for is a 2 dollar up charge only cause the projectors used cost a nice shiny penny

 

[Mavs Man]

Avatar will break the last all-time record tonight by passing Titanic's $600 M domestic gross. $700 M in the states is still possible, and probably $200-300 M extra worldwide to push it to $2.3 M or so once it is all said and done, about 30% higher than Titanic's final worldwide tally.

 

[Kevinicus]

our 3d prices at the theater i work for is a 2 dollar up charge only cause the projectors used cost a nice shiny penny

All the theaters here (KC area) have a $3 increase, which depending on when you go is a 30-60% increase in price.

2D - regular price accounts for less than 30% of sales according to the last numbers I saw.

 

[the kid 05]

All the theaters here (KC area) have a $3 increase, which depending on when you go is a 30-60% increase in price.

2D - regular price accounts for less than 30% of sales according to the last numbers I saw.

before 6, tickets are 5.50, 7.50 for 3d

after 6 adults are 8, 3d 10, kids/seniors/students/military 5.50

 

[rantanamo]

Many of the sites are going away from inflation and using more logical measures. They are finding that inflation really exaggerates what some movies really did. At Boxofficemojo there seems to be unanimous agreement that the true big 3 Box Office movies are Titanic, E.T. and Avatar. Through research they've found some of the older B.O. runs were greatly exaggerated. Some have even counted their initial home video sales from the 80s.

Lets not forget that Avatar is still going. Its only been in theaters for less than 2 months compared to some of these super long runs for other movies at the top of the list.

 

[Kevinicus]

According to Boxofficemojo, 81% (3D - 64%, IMAX - 16%) of grosses are from 3D AND/OR IMAX, leaving less than 20% of gross coming from standard 2D theatres. The average cost of IMAX is double the average ticket price, and the average markup for 3D is between $2 and $4.

The average cost of a 2D ticket is $7.61.

I think it's safe to say close to 25% of the grosses are due to 3D/IMAX.

 

[theogt]

According to Boxofficemojo, 81% (3D - 64%, IMAX - 16%) of grosses are from 3D AND/OR IMAX, leaving less than 20% of gross coming from standard 2D theatres. The average cost of IMAX is double the average ticket price, and the average markup for 3D is between $2 and $4.

The average cost of a 2D ticket is $7.61.

I think it's safe to say close to 25% of the grosses are due to 3D/IMAX.

Those numbers sound about right.

So the question becomes, why does that matter? Whether your product is low markup, high volume or vice versa, (or in Avatar's case, high markup high volume) the bottom line is still the bottom line.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Just an FYI


Avatar has atleast 2 sequels coming.

The star cast members signed on for 3 movies total ala Toby MacGuire with Spider-Man