Beware of assumptions from year to year

[LACowboysFan1]

A couple of those are facts. Zeke is 100% in decline, our linebackers are terrible, and our defense will take years to fix based on the Cowboys use of FA and the draft and the condition of the defense.

The defense was ranked 9th in 2019, IF Nolan was the main reason for the fall to 31st, with him gone, and IF the Cowboys make good picks for the defense I have no problem assuming the defense will be much better. A lot of the "x players (X. Woods, etc. are 'trash') are gone, if they were so bad surely the free agents have a good possibility of being better, don't they?

I don't agree it will take years to improve the defense simply because the NFL changes so fast these days...

 

[Rockport]

It’s objective to say we have a declining OL and a terrible defense. Those are just facts.

Can the OL put together another year or two of dominant play? Maybe.

Will the turnover on defense help production? Possibly.

Last years defense was Terrible but we haven't seen this years yet so you don't if it's terrible or not.

 

[Vanilla2]

The only assumption I have going into this season is that I will have a good time watching this team regardless of the outcome.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

I think it's safe to say the assumption in 2016 was that Dallas wasn't going to be very good after Romo went down, and a bit more when Moore went down, I bet a lot of teams were licking their chops thinking they'd feast on a 4 round rookie quarterback.

But we all know how it really turned out, 13 teams got their behinds kicked.

Can't really assume anything in the modern NFL....

 

[CowboyRoy]

The defense was ranked 9th in 2019, IF Nolan was the main reason for the fall to 31st, with him gone, and IF the Cowboys make good picks for the defense I have no problem assuming the defense will be much better. A lot of the "x players (X. Woods, etc. are 'trash') are gone, if they were so bad surely the free agents have a good possibility of being better, don't they?

I don't agree it will take years to improve the defense simply because the NFL changes so fast these days...

The word was "fixed". To me that means the defense is really good. Which it hasnt been for 20 years. I also dont go by "yards" to rate the defense as most do. Thats a rather weak way to rate a defense.

For me the "fixing" of the defense started last year. This is now the 2nd year. If we have a great draft with the top 3 picks defense and they turn out, that will go a long way to "improving" it. It will also take a few years for any new draft picks to fully get adjusted. I would think that one more offseason after THIS one if most things hit in the draft, we could see the Cowboys with a formidable defense. It could also be another 10 years before we see it if they continue to miss defense in the draft.

I also laugh at the people that blame everything on Nolan. Injuries, no offseason, no preseason, injuries, injuries, had much more to do with it than anything Nolan did.

He is not void of blame, however, as he obviously tried to do too much with no time to do it.

 

[Bullflop]

There's no question but what 2020 was an extremely opportune year to make assumptions. It was tough enough that we had a new coaching staff in place. If that wasn't enough to cause dreadful problems, the viral epidemic that cursed us as well was something that any team would rightly have had major problems to deal with. Adjusting with no training camp was an impossibility.

McCarthy and Mike Nolan also contributed to the defensive catastrophe by attempting to install a multiple-type of defensive scheme that became quite impossible to install, in view of the dire circumstances. Let's keep an open mind this time around and not assume the same problems will prevail. The season that lies ahead will likely be difficult enough to manage, in its own right.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

The word was "fixed". To me that means the defense is really good

I understand, but "fixed" to me means it will be top-10, and I do think that's possible this year, maybe not likely but possible...

 

[Point-of-the-Star]

• On the OL - Not to belabor the point but most of the assumptions/predictions I've read here at CZ is that Tyron is washed up and just plain injury prone. I say that past history of the last 3 years with the neck is a poor indicator of (1) his injury susceptibility and (2) quality of his play. If Tyron's bony neck structure holds up and the pinched nerve issue is resolved I think his overall strength and most of his flexibility will be intact. This gives me much hope. Cervical spine issues are tricky (30 years here in neurological ICU). His techniques are near impeccable. Martin's knee I really don't worry about as sports medicine has these treatments down pat. La'el's hip could be the wild card. I hope he is motivated to rehab it. I am not sure of his desire and motivations. I am sure the Smith loves the game and wants to excel.

• On MM - The jury is out on him IMO. He screwed the pooch enough that my "bad coach" radar is out. I want to be surprised by his coaching accumen this year. I am still amazed at his red flag throw on the Dez "non-catch".

• On Elliot - Zeke failed my eye test last year but this is totally dependant on the OL (per your firs point). The fumbles bothered me a lot. Those things happen at that frequency when one's head or heart is not into it. If he get's 1800+ yards this year on the ground we'll claim the East and go more than 1 deep in the playoffs. Go Zeke !

• On the D and LB - I think last years D problems and specifically LB play was all on Nolan. Don't know if Quinn is the answer but the proof will be in the pudding. Don't think we can be near as bad as 2020.

• On fixing the Defense - I think we can do the turn around in one year IF the draft is smart and Quinn is a whiz kid. 2 years is more reasonable. Look, Tampa Bay was turrible 2017-2019 with 2 5-11 seasons. They are a perennial bad team. They had not won their division since 2007 and most of the time was last. This is doable by the Cowboys if the cards fall right.

On assumptions - I assume nothing. You know what they say about those that assume

out of
(*** ^ u ^ me)





I tried to make this a point by point response but the format didn't play along.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I understand, but "fixed" to me means it will be top-10, and I do think that's possible this year, maybe not likely but possible...

"Not likely" ..................And again, what does top 10 mean? Yards doesnt do it for me.

Just look at the facts.....................................Most of these guys signed in FA this year are one year rentals. So they are NOT answers. Stop gap is all they are.

We will need to replace all 3 of our linebackers long term and we dont have a legitmate DT yet.

Diggs and Wilson I would say are the only young, longer term guys we can say with any kind of confidence have "FIXED" their positions. Gregory? What happens to him.

To me, the complete turnover of the defense started last year.

 

[CouchCoach]

You know what they say about assumptions? We all make them. That old saying making an _ _ _ out of you and me is only for people disagreeing with the assumption because they are what? Assuming that you are wrong. They don't use that saying unless they disagree. It's like that opinions are like ____________'s, everyone's got one. Unless they happen to agree with your opinion.

How do we arrive at conclusions without making some assumptions and marrying those to history? I ASSUME McC made those decisions early on trying to win his team over because they always want to go for it and he's an offensive coach. I ASSUME that he learned from that and further ASSUME his decision making will be better.

I ASSUME Quinn will be an improvement over Nolan because he has a better track record as a DC. I ASSUME the front 7 last season would have been better with a different DC than Nolan. I am now tying assumptions together to get better at assuming. I am assuming to come to a favorable conclusion.

Some are assuming the negative side of it and that's a defense against disappointment. There are no "You Were Right" trophies for the negative assumers. There also isn't a "You Were Wrong" consolation award.

Did anyone here assume the QB would go down and out in the 5th game of the season? Anyone assume the RB would lead RB's in fumbles? Anyone assume they would lose both starting Tackles and the TE?

Love meaning never having to say you're sorry for assuming. It is your right to assume. If you don't assume, how do you form an opinion?

 

[CATCH17]

I think our division being so bad will create a lot more fools gold / false hope surrounding this team that the delusional, and Jerry, will buy into.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I understand, but "fixed" to me means it will be top-10, and I do think that's possible this year, maybe not likely but possible...

ll give you this..................if we are top 10 in pass defense, run defense, turnovers, 3rd down conversion rate allowed, sacks, and points allowed, then that would be "fixed".

 

[CowboyRoy]

You know what they say about assumptions? We all make them. That old saying making an _ _ _ out of you and me is only for people disagreeing with the assumption because they are what? Assuming that you are wrong. They don't use that saying unless they disagree. It's like that opinions are like ____________'s, everyone's got one. Unless they happen to agree with your opinion.

How do we arrive at conclusions without making some assumptions and marrying those to history? I ASSUME McC made those decisions early on trying to win his team over because they always want to go for it and he's an offensive coach. I ASSUME that he learned from that and further ASSUME his decision making will be better.

I ASSUME Quinn will be an improvement over Nolan because he has a better track record as a DC. I ASSUME the front 7 last season would have been better with a different DC than Nolan. I am now tying assumptions together to get better at assuming. I am assuming to come to a favorable conclusion.

Some are assuming the negative side of it and that's a defense against disappointment. There are no "You Were Right" trophies for the negative assumers. There also isn't a "You Were Wrong" consolation award.

Did anyone here assume the QB would go down and out in the 5th game of the season? Anyone assume the RB would lead RB's in fumbles? Anyone assume they would lose both starting Tackles and the TE?

Love meaning never having to say you're sorry for assuming. It is your right to assume. If you don't assume, how do you form an opinion?

You can also assume that Nolan would have done better with a full offseason, less injuries, and better talent.

 

[CowboyRoy]

I think our division being so bad will create a lot more fools gold / false hope surrounding this team that the delusional, and Jerry, will buy into.

Panicking already over the weak NFC already are we? LOL

You seemed all pumped up last year when Dak went down bragging about how your hero Dalton was going to lead us to the playoffs.

 

[LACowboysFan1]

'll give you this..................if we are top 10 in pass defense, run defense, turnovers, 3rd down conversion rate allowed, sacks, and points allowed, then that would be "fixed".

That'd be nice, but just one thing to note - many times a team won't be top 10 in either pass or run defense, if really good in the other. If a defense shuts down the run teams will pass 45-50 times to try to score, leading to poor pass defense ratings, but it's a meaningless stat if they lose the game. And vice versa...

 

[CowboyRoy]

That'd be nice, but just one thing to note - many times a team won't be top 10 in either pass or run defense, if really good in the other. If a defense shuts down the run teams will pass 45-50 times to try to score, leading to poor pass defense ratings, but it's a meaningless stat if they lose the game. And vice versa...

yah, going by one stat is misleading. And if the Cowboys offense continues to be top notch, then other teams may have to play catch up and be one dimensional. So the run numbers would be lower and passing numbers would be higher.

But I dont agree that stats are meaningless. If the Cowboys are top 10 in all those things, it means we have a good defense. Regardless of whether we win or lose.

 

[CowboyRoy]

The only assumption I have going into this season is that I will have a good time watching this team regardless of the outcome.

I wish I could be a casual fan like that.

 

[jrumann59]

The word assumption is defined as “something that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.”

We all make assumptions. We often assume when someone says something, they mean something that they may actually not mean. (Like my wife for example, LOL!) We may assume that if a work colleague brings his lunch every day, and it’s a ham sandwich, he must love ham. Etc, etc.

In sports, we fans are always making assumptions- some accurate, some not. For example, if a young Cowboys CB has 5 interceptions his rookie season, we immediately assume he will have the same number of INTs or more the next year and many years ahead. Or in a broader sense, if our favorite team goes 13-3 one season, we can assume they will be close to that the next season.

But it’s pretty clear that the NFL is a year to year thing, and many of our football assumptions are inaccurate- positive and negative assumptions. Let’s look at some common assumptions going into this season:

• Our OL will return to form- Tyron Smith- after neck surgery this last season (when he missed 14 games) many of us fans are assuming he’s going to be back to his normal form. We all assume La’el Collins and Zack Martin will also return to dominant form. Those are hopeful assumptions. If accurate- great! But what if 1 or 2 of those guys aren’t what they once were?
  
• Mike McCarthy is not a good HC- he did not have a great start as Cowboys HC, making several strategic blunders in key moments last year. The assumption of many is he’s not a good HC. Time will tell of course. But can we assume we know enough about Big Mac at this point? Maybe he’s better than we assume.
• Ezekiel Elliott is in decline- last year was a sub-par year for Zeke. The fumbles, the lack of burst and big plays. The assumption is he was not good last year primarily because of the injuries to our OL. Is that an accurate assumption or just fan hopes?
• Our LBs are terrible- Last year was a bad year for The whole D and LB play was atrocious. The assumption is Jaylon Smith is terrible and un-fixable and LVE is a China doll about to be injured again. Are those accurate assumptions? Maybe. But it’s also possible both can be greatly improved through some better coaching.
  
• Our defense will take years to fix- this is a common assumption that is understandable. Our D has been talent starved for far too long. Will it take 2-3 years, or will a great draft and some key FA make this year’s defense at least decent?

The point here is we all make assumptions about players, coaches, who we will beat on next year’s schedule, etc. But the truth is, many of our assumptions from year to year are wrong. Can’t wait to find out what’s accurate and what’s not.

Also the inverse of all those assumptions are just as sloppy.

 

[CATCH17]

Panicking already over the weak NFC already are we? LOL

You seemed all pumped up last year when Dak went down bragging about how your hero Dalton was going to lead us to the playoffs.

Strawmanning again.. Just shut up about things others have said.


You see people post things and it’s just an absolute mess when you try to remember what you read.

 

[CouchCoach]

You can also assume that Nolan would have done better with a full offseason, less injuries, and better talent.

No, because with his resume, I had already assumed that was a bad hire. His track record is terrible and he couldn't even get a DC job in his last two.