Beware of assumptions from year to year

[eromeopolk]

The word assumption is defined as “something that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.”

We all make assumptions. We often assume when someone says something, they mean something that they may actually not mean. (Like my wife for example, LOL!) We may assume that if a work colleague brings his lunch every day, and it’s a ham sandwich, he must love ham. Etc, etc.

In sports, we fans are always making assumptions- some accurate, some not. For example, if a young Cowboys CB has 5 interceptions his rookie season, we immediately assume he will have the same number of INTs or more the next year and many years ahead. Or in a broader sense, if our favorite team goes 13-3 one season, we can assume they will be close to that the next season.

But it’s pretty clear that the NFL is a year to year thing, and many of our football assumptions are inaccurate- positive and negative assumptions. Let’s look at some common assumptions going into this season:

• Our OL will return to form- Tyron Smith- after neck surgery this last season (when he missed 14 games) many of us fans are assuming he’s going to be back to his normal form. We all assume La’el Collins and Zack Martin will also return to dominant form. Those are hopeful assumptions. If accurate- great! But what if 1 or 2 of those guys aren’t what they once were?
  
• Mike McCarthy is not a good HC- he did not have a great start as Cowboys HC, making several strategic blunders in key moments last year. The assumption of many is he’s not a good HC. Time will tell of course. But can we assume we know enough about Big Mac at this point? Maybe he’s better than we assume.
• Ezekiel Elliott is in decline- last year was a sub-par year for Zeke. The fumbles, the lack of burst and big plays. The assumption is he was not good last year primarily because of the injuries to our OL. Is that an accurate assumption or just fan hopes?
• Our LBs are terrible- Last year was a bad year for The whole D and LB play was atrocious. The assumption is Jaylon Smith is terrible and un-fixable and LVE is a China doll about to be injured again. Are those accurate assumptions? Maybe. But it’s also possible both can be greatly improved through some better coaching.
  
• Our defense will take years to fix- this is a common assumption that is understandable. Our D has been talent starved for far too long. Will it take 2-3 years, or will a great draft and some key FA make this year’s defense at least decent?

The point here is we all make assumptions about players, coaches, who we will beat on next year’s schedule, etc. But the truth is, many of our assumptions from year to year are wrong. Can’t wait to find out what’s accurate and what’s not.

Every year in football is a different year. The constant or consistency year to year should be your Head Coach, Quarterback, and key offensive and defensive personnel, which are your play makers.

So fans go into the year with expectations based on assumptions.

As Felix in the Odd Couple Show says, "When you assume.....
However, there is no assumption on this fact, Jerry "Dumbo GM" Jones will not field as Super Bowl contender that will make the NFC Championship game based on the past 25 years of factual data performance. Past performance is indicative of future results.

 

[fivetwos]

Great points. The people who can least afford making assumptions in pro sports are the GMs and front office people making roster/talent decisions...unless your name is Jones.

The thing I wrestle with there is the Jones' "job security."

We all understand the dynamics, but shouldnt that situation theoretically allow for more chance taking?

They don't seem to want to take that get over the hump plunge in the slightest.

They have the ultimate in job security yet play it close to the vest.

I'll point to the results for those who want to call that wise management.

Doesn't really add up.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Your Dak was basically 0-4 (unless you want to count the fluke Atl game as a win) and leading the hapless 0-5 Giants by a couple of points late in the 3rd. Yeah, but he had a ton of yards against two of the weakest defenses protecting huge leads and another defense (Clev) protecting a humongous lead.

I wouldn’t be so sure the terrible NFC East would have helped your Dak.

Another QB guru that thought Dalton was better than Dak.

Cowboys averaged 37 points per game behind Dak and broke the NFL all time record for offense thought the first 4 games.

Under Dalton they the offense averaged 21 points per game.

Time to punt Troll.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Just shut up when it comes to things others have said. Your brain sucks at remembering things.

I said Dalton could get similar results to Dak.. I was wrong that I thought our passing game would improve as was Jimmy Johnson who shared my same opinion. It was worse with him but the team results ended up being the same because your 40 million dollar QB isn't a guy who overcomes things. He's just along for the ride like Dalton.

The only thing laughable is your brain trying to remember things others have said.


I know people that hate the Cowboys and celebrated when we gave Dak that deal. Everyone knows it was a stupid move other than a few delusional homers and worst of all Jerry Jones.

Look at how pissed you are getting. Eveyone knows the dumb things you said. You are the poster child for Dalton.

Your reputation getting everything wrong is legendary on here.

Who is the clown predicting doom and gloom for the next decade? Turn in your fan card. Delete your account.

 

[CATCH17]

Look at how pissed you are getting. Eveyone knows the dumb things you said. You are the poster child for Dalton.

Your reputation getting everything wrong is legendary on here.

Who is the clown predicting doom and gloom for the next decade? Turn in your fan card. Delete your account.

Nah I’m just tired of the 4 or 5 of you who constantly come at me with BS and I’m gonna start bringing that same energy you come at me with.

 

[Bobhaze]

The thing I wrestle with there is the Jones' "job security."

We all understand the dynamics, but shouldnt that situation theoretically allow for more chance taking?

They don't seem to want to take that get over the hump plunge in the slightest.

They have the ultimate in job security yet play it close to the vest.

I'll point to the results for those who want to call that wise management.

Doesn't really add up.

Great point. Although JJ would say drafting guys like Bruce Carter, Gavin Escobar, Jaylon Smith and Randy Gregory using second round capital are “gambling” moves. And actually they are just foolish.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Nah I’m just tired of the 4 or 5 of you who constantly come at me with BS and I’m gonna start bringing that same energy you come at me with.

4 or 5............. see everyone knows it. Stop saying silly things and you wont get hammered on here.

You honestly go from one emotional, ridiculous stance to another. Hilarious to watch actually.

 

[Bobhaze]

Let’s keep it real here without the insults.

 

[Dre11]

"Not likely" ..................And again, what does top 10 mean? Yards doesnt do it for me.

Just look at the facts.....................................Most of these guys signed in FA this year are one year rentals. So they are NOT answers. Stop gap is all they are.

We will need to replace all 3 of our linebackers long term and we dont have a legitmate DT yet.

Diggs and Wilson I would say are the only young, longer term guys we can say with any kind of confidence have "FIXED" their positions. Gregory? What happens to him.

To me, the complete turnover of the defense started last year.

They only gave up 20.1 points a game in 2019 which ranked 11th in the league, 11th vs the run, 10th vs the pass
improve the turnovers and I'll take that defense back.

 

[morasp]

Last year we had a lot of injuries but this year we won't

 

[Dre11]

The stats tell you that they have a great offense and a bad defense. Not difficult stuff.

Are you saying that stats a meaningful if they lead to a win?

if they just get back to 2019 defense with more turnovers, the team will be much improved.

 

[CowboyRoy]

They only gave up 20.1 points a game in 2019 which ranked 11th in the league, 11th vs the run, 10th vs the pass
improve the turnovers and I'll take that defense back.

Ill take those numbers with lots of turnovers and more sacks.

 

[CowboyRoy]

if they just get back to 2019 defense with more turnovers, the team will be much improved.

It would be a great start. We get there and were a contender in the NFC.

 

[fivetwos]

Nah I’m just tired of the 4 or 5 of you who constantly come at me with BS and I’m gonna start bringing that same energy you come at me with.

You take a beating and handle it well.

Don't lose that quality.

Good for you for stating your case and sticking to it, although I don't necessarily agree.

I'd sooner bet on you than Jerry Jones quite honestly.

I just hope for different.

 

[CATCH17]

You take a beating and handle it well.

Don't lose that quality.

Good for you for stating your case and sticking to it, although I don't necessarily agree.

I'd sooner bet on you than Jerry Jones quite honestly.

I just hope for different.

Thanks man.. You’re right.. I’ll try to chill but it’s been hard lately haha.

 

[JoeKing]

Without seeing the schedule, I think we cab manage 10 wins and a division title.

 

[fivetwos]

Without seeing the schedule, I think we cab manage 10 wins and a division title.

They probably can....

But I need to see more than just winning that first game at home.

Need them to stand tall on that second round game on the road and get to an NFCCG, or all it was is getting back to peak Garrett level and wasting two years to do so.

 

[Cowpolk]

Is it fair to assume zeke is fat?

Well I assume it is

 

[Jake]

Here's an assumption (or two): none of the other 31 NFL teams would hire Jerry to be their GM or Stephen to be their Director of Player Personnel.

It's really all you need to know, even if some of you refuse to acknowledge it.

 

[Blackrain]

I have a few of the same assumptions every year .

1 Our culture makes us an undisciplined group that will make mistakes at the worst times .

2 Stephen and Jerry will never ever be talented enough at team building to get us to an NFC Championship Game .

3 Some part of our coaching will be flawed and cost us .

4 We wont be able to buy any turnovers , we just dont seem to get very many

5 And probably the most frustrating to me , We will never make DT a priority and always struggle along with no talent space fillers making EVERYONES JOB on defense harder leading to a defense that continually lets us down in the post season if we are lucky enough to get there .

6 Zeke will do that horrible Feed Me crap and make me want to brick the TV