Beware of assumptions from year to year

TwoCentPlain

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@Bobhaze Did you avoid the biggest assumption most posters here have made or did you just forget? That is the assumption at QB and specifically with Dak?

Are we officially beyond the assumption phase with Dak and his little boo-boo he had with his leg? People just assume he will be able to start the season, run like he did before, not be afraid to run, etc.

Are we safe to assume Dak will now play at an elite level since he finally got paid?

If this assumption is incorrect, the team is hosed for the next 4 years no matter what else happens or whatever assumptions anyone makes.

Companies and football teams do these ‘what-if’ scenarios often. Whether the fans do it or not is irrelevant to the outcome.
 

LACowboysFan1

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yah, going by one stat is misleading. And if the Cowboys offense continues to be top notch, then other teams may have to play catch up and be one dimensional. So the run numbers would be lower and passing numbers would be higher.

But I dont agree that stats are meaningless. If the Cowboys are top 10 in all those things, it means we have a good defense. Regardless of whether we win or lose.

I meant the stats in a given game, in other words if the other team passes for 400 yards and 3 tds but their defense gives up 500 yards and 4 tds, then for that game their 400/3 stat is meaningless. Stats don't win SBs, winning games does...
 

INCowboysFan

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Probably the best assumption in the OP is that Zack Martin returns to form. He had a calf strain, not reconstructive surgery. I'd be shocked if Martin wasn't his usual dominating self.
 

maryquality

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Probably the best assumption in the OP is that Zack Martin returns to form. He had a calf strain, not reconstructive surgery. I'd be shocked if Martin wasn't his usual dominating self.
I agree!! Martin should be good to go. The other 2 is still a question mark.
 

MarcusRock

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The word assumption is defined as “something that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.”

We all make assumptions. We often assume when someone says something, they mean something that they may actually not mean. (Like my wife for example, LOL!) We may assume that if a work colleague brings his lunch every day, and it’s a ham sandwich, he must love ham. Etc, etc.

In sports, we fans are always making assumptions- some accurate, some not. For example, if a young Cowboys CB has 5 interceptions his rookie season, we immediately assume he will have the same number of INTs or more the next year and many years ahead. Or in a broader sense, if our favorite team goes 13-3 one season, we can assume they will be close to that the next season.

But it’s pretty clear that the NFL is a year to year thing, and many of our football assumptions are inaccurate- positive and negative assumptions. Let’s look at some common assumptions going into this season:
  • Our OL will return to form- Tyron Smith- after neck surgery this last season (when he missed 14 games) many of us fans are assuming he’s going to be back to his normal form. We all assume La’el Collins and Zack Martin will also return to dominant form. Those are hopeful assumptions. If accurate- great! But what if 1 or 2 of those guys aren’t what they once were?
  • Mike McCarthy is not a good HC- he did not have a great start as Cowboys HC, making several strategic blunders in key moments last year. The assumption of many is he’s not a good HC. Time will tell of course. But can we assume we know enough about Big Mac at this point? Maybe he’s better than we assume.
  • Ezekiel Elliott is in decline- last year was a sub-par year for Zeke. The fumbles, the lack of burst and big plays. The assumption is he was not good last year primarily because of the injuries to our OL. Is that an accurate assumption or just fan hopes?
  • Our LBs are terrible- Last year was a bad year for The whole D and LB play was atrocious. The assumption is Jaylon Smith is terrible and un-fixable and LVE is a China doll about to be injured again. Are those accurate assumptions? Maybe. But it’s also possible both can be greatly improved through some better coaching.
  • Our defense will take years to fix- this is a common assumption that is understandable. Our D has been talent starved for far too long. Will it take 2-3 years, or will a great draft and some key FA make this year’s defense at least decent?
The point here is we all make assumptions about players, coaches, who we will beat on next year’s schedule, etc. But the truth is, many of our assumptions from year to year are wrong. Can’t wait to find out what’s accurate and what’s not.

I say it every year when people are pulling out proclamations before the pre-season: everyone counts on pro-gression but never account for re-gression. How many of us thought the LB corps were set with LVE and Jaylon a few years back?
 

LACowboysFan1

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Most of these guys signed in FA this year are one year rentals.

Again, true, but what if they mesh with the other players and collectively they are a top defense, or if they have a rejuvenation of their career? Then with the expected cap being back to normal next year the Cowboys could sign them for a multi-year contract and the defense could be a top one.

The whole point is that we don't know what next year will bring, we can no more assume the defense will be average at best than we can they will be the "top" defense...
 

CowboyRoy

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Strawmanning again.. Just shut up about things others have said.


You see people post things and it’s just an absolute mess when you try to remember what you read.

Do you really think people have forgotten your Dalton love fest? Rest assured I will never let you or the board forget your laughable claims about Dalton outperforming Dak.

"Dalton efficiency" is still one of my favorites.

Isnt it ironic that the "terrible NFC East" didnt help your boy Dalton when he was leading the Cowboys did it? Made you look foolish. ONCE AGAIN your faith is sorely misplaced.
 

CowboyRoy

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I meant the stats in a given game, in other words if the other team passes for 400 yards and 3 tds but their defense gives up 500 yards and 4 tds, then for that game their 400/3 stat is meaningless. Stats don't win SBs, winning games does...

The stats tell you that they have a great offense and a bad defense. Not difficult stuff.

Are you saying that stats a meaningful if they lead to a win?
 

CowboyRoy

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Again, true, but what if they mesh with the other players and collectively they are a top defense, or if they have a rejuvenation of their career? Then with the expected cap being back to normal next year the Cowboys could sign them for a multi-year contract and the defense could be a top one.

The whole point is that we don't know what next year will bring, we can no more assume the defense will be average at best than we can they will be the "top" defense...

"So you are saying there's a chance"?

Thats a weak point.

The better guess is that its going to take a couple years of good drafting and couple of quality starters in FA.
 

TwoCentPlain

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Do you really think people have forgotten your Dalton love fest? Rest assured I will never let you or the board forget your laughable claims about Dalton outperforming Dak.

"Dalton efficiency" is still one of my favorites.

Isnt it ironic that the "terrible NFC East" didnt help your boy Dalton when he was leading the Cowboys did it? Made you look foolish. ONCE AGAIN your faith is sorely misplaced.

Your Dak was basically 0-4 (unless you want to count the fluke Atl game as a win) and leading the hapless 0-5 Giants by a couple of points late in the 3rd. Yeah, but he had a ton of yards against two of the weakest defenses protecting huge leads and another defense (Clev) protecting a humongous lead.

I wouldn’t be so sure the terrible NFC East would have helped your Dak.
 

fivetwos

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The word assumption is defined as “something that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof.”

We all make assumptions. We often assume when someone says something, they mean something that they may actually not mean. (Like my wife for example, LOL!) We may assume that if a work colleague brings his lunch every day, and it’s a ham sandwich, he must love ham. Etc, etc.

In sports, we fans are always making assumptions- some accurate, some not. For example, if a young Cowboys CB has 5 interceptions his rookie season, we immediately assume he will have the same number of INTs or more the next year and many years ahead. Or in a broader sense, if our favorite team goes 13-3 one season, we can assume they will be close to that the next season.

But it’s pretty clear that the NFL is a year to year thing, and many of our football assumptions are inaccurate- positive and negative assumptions. Let’s look at some common assumptions going into this season:
  • Our OL will return to form- Tyron Smith- after neck surgery this last season (when he missed 14 games) many of us fans are assuming he’s going to be back to his normal form. We all assume La’el Collins and Zack Martin will also return to dominant form. Those are hopeful assumptions. If accurate- great! But what if 1 or 2 of those guys aren’t what they once were?
  • Mike McCarthy is not a good HC- he did not have a great start as Cowboys HC, making several strategic blunders in key moments last year. The assumption of many is he’s not a good HC. Time will tell of course. But can we assume we know enough about Big Mac at this point? Maybe he’s better than we assume.
  • Ezekiel Elliott is in decline- last year was a sub-par year for Zeke. The fumbles, the lack of burst and big plays. The assumption is he was not good last year primarily because of the injuries to our OL. Is that an accurate assumption or just fan hopes?
  • Our LBs are terrible- Last year was a bad year for The whole D and LB play was atrocious. The assumption is Jaylon Smith is terrible and un-fixable and LVE is a China doll about to be injured again. Are those accurate assumptions? Maybe. But it’s also possible both can be greatly improved through some better coaching.
  • Our defense will take years to fix- this is a common assumption that is understandable. Our D has been talent starved for far too long. Will it take 2-3 years, or will a great draft and some key FA make this year’s defense at least decent?
The point here is we all make assumptions about players, coaches, who we will beat on next year’s schedule, etc. But the truth is, many of our assumptions from year to year are wrong. Can’t wait to find out what’s accurate and what’s not.
I'll give you this much about assumptions....

We figured/assumed our average-ish defense from 2019 (which DID actually step up that season against better opponents...but that's another topic) would get better in 2020 with a coaching and scheme change, but it was stunningly worse.

We also for some reason figure/assume it can't go in the other direction from here with another scheme/coach change, back to something similar.

Fact is, yes....sports isn't fully predictable by any type of longshot....and folks around here have generally been conditioned to expect the worst.

Doesn't mean we don't hope against odds for the best.
 

CATCH17

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Do you really think people have forgotten your Dalton love fest? Rest assured I will never let you or the board forget your laughable claims about Dalton outperforming Dak.

"Dalton efficiency" is still one of my favorites.

Isnt it ironic that the "terrible NFC East" didnt help your boy Dalton when he was leading the Cowboys did it? Made you look foolish. ONCE AGAIN your faith is sorely misplaced.


Just shut up when it comes to things others have said. Your brain sucks at remembering things.

I said Dalton could get similar results to Dak.. I was wrong that I thought our passing game would improve as was Jimmy Johnson who shared my same opinion. It was worse with him but the team results ended up being the same because your 40 million dollar QB isn't a guy who overcomes things. He's just along for the ride like Dalton.

The only thing laughable is your brain trying to remember things others have said.


I know people that hate the Cowboys and celebrated when we gave Dak that deal. Everyone knows it was a stupid move other than a few delusional homers and worst of all Jerry Jones.
 

CATCH17

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Your Dak was basically 0-4 (unless you want to count the fluke Atl game as a win) and leading the hapless 0-5 Giants by a couple of points late in the 3rd. Yeah, but he had a ton of yards against two of the weakest defenses protecting huge leads and another defense (Clev) protecting a humongous lead.

I wouldn’t be so sure the terrible NFC East would have helped your Dak.


Like how delusional do you have to be to be pom pom'ing the first month of the season.

The only people who should be happy about Dak Prescott's performance during the 1st month are the people who had him in Fantasy Football because that is all those garbage time stats were good for.

How do people even think like this? I truly don't get how their brain functions to be this big of a sucker.

I mean there are scam artists out there and I guess they have to target someone or they would never do it.
 

Fletch

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Seriously, Dak coming back, Jarwin coming back, the OL coming back, a new DC, more time for MM to put in his culture, the continued improvement from the young’s on defense, Diggs, Gallimore, Anae. Neal is going to be a big upgrade and a couple of the other free agent signings as well.
So you’re assuming, aren’t ya? :D

I do agree with your assumption.
 

Bobhaze

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I'll give you this much about assumptions....

We figured/assumed our average-ish defense from 2019 (which DID actually step up that season against better opponents...but that's another topic) would get better in 2020 with a coaching and scheme change, but it was stunningly worse.

We also for some reason figure/assume it can't go in the other direction from here with another scheme/coach change, back to something similar.

Fact is, yes....sports isn't fully predictable by any type of longshot....and folks around here have generally been conditioned to expect the worst.

Doesn't mean we don't hope against odds for the best.
Great points. The people who can least afford making assumptions in pro sports are the GMs and front office people making roster/talent decisions...unless your name is Jones.
 

Rockport

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So you’re assuming, aren’t ya? :D

I do agree with your assumption.
Pretty much. It's easy to assume the defense will be better this year because it really can't get much worse. How better, time will tell.
 
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