Bledsoe - my observation

Nors · Oct 29, 2005

Miki

We had a nice snowfall today. Hows it looking at the Arctic circle? Gonna be cold tomorrow night watching Bills game in the igloo! Hot chocolate in order!

MichaelWinicki · Oct 29, 2005

Nors said:
He's clearly not in the class of the great QB's of all times. He is a QB in the strata below. Not a HOF today - but a QB at 33 with a few good seasons and a SB a HOF.

He is on All Pro pace so far and if I'd archive February posts you would not be as kind on Bledsoe!

Nors I don't disagree with most of that.

I get prickly when people try to make Bledsoe out to be something that he clearly isn't-- Troy Aikman's equal.

Bob Sacamano · Oct 29, 2005

all I'm hearing is that Bledsoe is the best QB since Aikman

MichaelWinicki · Oct 29, 2005

summerisfunner said:
all I'm hearing is that Bledsoe is the best QB since Aikman

And I don't have a problem with that. I have more of an issue with all "Bledsoe for the HOF" and that kind of nonsense.

Nors · Oct 29, 2005

We need a nice 350 yard game from Drew on the Cardinals. We can then then kick them back to the desert.

5-3 and we are in great shape. We lose this game and the R word comes up.....

big_neil · Oct 30, 2005

MichaelWinicki said:
And I don't have a problem with that. I have more of an issue with all "Bledsoe for the HOF" and that kind of nonsense.

You're right - a great HOF QB would never throw an interception. Dan Marino never threw interceptions. Dan had twice as many TDs as INTs in his career.

In 5 late game drives this season, Drew has only delivered only 3 wins (.600), throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT. The TDs might have won those 2 games, but the INT might have lost one, so that's why he should never make the HOF.

big_neil · Oct 30, 2005

Troy Aikman won 3 Super bowls. Not unrelated to that, he had an outstanding record in the playoffs. However, Troy's career stats were not stellar.

Troy's average game: 18/29 for 200 yards 1 TD and .85 INT.
Troy's TD/INT ratio is 1.17. (165/141 in 165 games)

Drew's average game: 20/35 for 232 yards 1.3 TD and 1 INT. Drew's TD/INT ratio is 1.25. (233/179 in 179 games)

Drew played 14 more games than Troy, his average in those games was 49/111 for 619 yards, 5 TDs 3 INT

big_neil · Oct 30, 2005

233 TD /187 INT for Drew rather

MichaelWinicki · Oct 30, 2005

big_neil said:
You're right - a great HOF QB would never throw an interception. Dan Marino never threw interceptions. Dan had twice as many TDs as INTs in his career.

In 5 late game drives this season, Drew has only delivered only 3 wins (.600), throwing 2 TDs and 1 INT. The TDs might have won those 2 games, but the INT might have lost one, so that's why he should never make the HOF.

Cool-- we've boiled Drew Bledsoe's career down to 5 games. Nice.

MichaelWinicki · Oct 30, 2005

big_neil said:
Troy Aikman won 3 Super bowls. Not unrelated to that, he had an outstanding record in the playoffs. However, Troy's career stats were not stellar.

Troy's average game: 18/29 for 200 yards 1 TD and .85 INT.
Troy's TD/INT ratio is 1.17. (165/141 in 165 games)

Drew's average game: 20/35 for 232 yards 1.3 TD and 1 INT. Drew's TD/INT ratio is 1.25. (233/179 in 179 games)

Drew played 14 more games than Troy, his average in those games was 49/111 for 619 yards, 5 TDs 3 INT

Aikman also has an overall QB rating that is what 5 or 6 points higher than Drew's? That's a lot. And considering Aikman never had to lead the offense by passing the football that shows just how incredible his accuracy was.

big_neil · Oct 30, 2005

No it's 4 points higher - not a lot. It's 81 vs 77.

big_neil · Oct 30, 2005

MichaelWinicki said:
considering Aikman never had to lead the offense by passing the football that shows just how incredible his accuracy was.

Um... ??

big_neil · Oct 30, 2005

Statistically speaking, based on rating, Aikman was 5% better than Bledsoe. Neither lost a conference championship (Aikman 3-0, Bledsoe 2-0). Super Bowls is a different story (Aikman 3-0, Bledsoe 0-1).

MichaelWinicki · Oct 30, 2005

big_neil said:
Um... ??

Aikman never had to toss 20+ a year, every year. So his QB rating is greatly hurt by that. However his accuracy is so superior to Bledsoe's he's still able to beat Bledsoe's rating by a comfortable margin.

MichaelWinicki · Oct 30, 2005

big_neil said:
No it's 4 points higher - not a lot. It's 81 vs 77.

In my world it is.

MichaelWinicki · Oct 30, 2005

big_neil said:
Statistically speaking, based on rating, Aikman was 5% better than Bledsoe. Neither lost a conference championship (Aikman 3-0, Bledsoe 2-0). Super Bowls is a different story (Aikman 3-0, Bledsoe 0-1).

Another big boost to Aikman.

Trip · Oct 30, 2005

MichaelWinicki said:
I think it was more of a case of defensive coordinators:

1. Forgetting how they did successfully defend Bledsoe in the past.
2. Underestimating the ability of Pearless Price to stretch a defense. Up to that point PP had not done much so far in the league.

I believe it was those two factors that led to the first half of 2002.

When you said above that you felt Bledsoe was slightly-above-average (something to that effect), not a HOFer, and certainly not in Aikman's class, I kinda backed it down a bit, because that's right about where I'm at. I certainly think he can be above average, but I don't think we're that far apart in what we think he is. Now if Bledose wins a Super Bowl, I think it changes things, but basically, I think we both have a similar feeling on what kind of QB Bledsoe is.

But based on a lot things you've said, it certainly doesn't seem like you feel Bledsoe is above average, or even close to it.

And the above statement, I can't get on board with at all.

Defensive coordinators had about 10 years worth of data on Bledsoe, yet they suddenly forget how to defend him, and they didn't remember again until he lit them up 8 times. You'd think that, maybe after a 400 yard passing game against Minnesota, and Peerless went for about 150, they would re-think their strategy. But it continued for 5-6 more games, then suddenly it hit them, "hey, we're defending this all wrong." Now, seemingly they've forgotten again, because he's back to having success. Certainly defensive coordinators in the NFC know the book on Bledsoe.

I really think you underestimate the offensive line and receivers role in this equation.

Now to say it takes Bledsoe better players around him to be an above average QB than it does one of those other HOFer's you mentioned, okay, but Bledsoe can be really good given the right supporting cast, and I think he has it with Dallas.

Nors · Oct 30, 2005

Me wants to see a Drew Bledsoe throw fest early

13-17 205 3 Td AT HALF.!

MichaelWinicki · Oct 30, 2005

Trip said:
When you said above that you felt Bledsoe was slightly-above-average (something to that effect), not a HOFer, and certainly not in Aikman's class, I kinda backed it down a bit, because that's right about where I'm at. I certainly think he can be above average, but I don't think we're that far apart in what we think he is. Now if Bledose wins a Super Bowl, I think it changes things, but basically, I think we both have a similar feeling on what kind of QB Bledsoe is.

But based on a lot things you've said, it certainly doesn't seem like you feel Bledsoe is above average, or even close to it.

And the above statement, I can't get on board with at all.

Defensive coordinators had about 10 years worth of data on Bledsoe, yet they suddenly forget how to defend him, and they didn't remember again until he lit them up 8 times. You'd think that, maybe after a 400 yard passing game against Minnesota, and Peerless went for about 150, they would re-think their strategy. But it continued for 5-6 more games, then suddenly it hit them, "hey, we're defending this all wrong." Now, seemingly they've forgotten again, because he's back to having success. Certainly defensive coordinators in the NFC know the book on Bledsoe.

I really think you underestimate the offensive line and receivers role in this equation.

Now to say it takes Bledsoe better players around him to be an above average QB than it does one of those other HOFer's you mentioned, okay, but Bledsoe can be really good given the right supporting cast, and I think he has it with Dallas.

Oh no question that support cast has a great deal to do with it. But when I look at the player without the supporting cast there is no comparison between Aikman and Drew... I would give Drew big edge for a better deep ball and a slight edge on the stronger arm. But when you look at things like, release, accuracy, ability to read defenses, ability to avoid the rush... Aikman is far better.

burmafrd · Oct 30, 2005

Yeah, AIkman looked really good his last few years- when the supporting cast was no longer there. His last 2 years he was at best average. True injuries were catching up to him, but he did not have the ability to make up for lack of talent around him. No different at all from Drew. They are both the same- give them the supporting cast and time to throw and they will eat you up. Aikman in his prime was more accurate, but Drew thows a better long ball. Also, I think Drew is a little better at being a leader.

Bledsoe - my observation

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