Bob Sturm: The average red zone run in the NFL from 2016-2018

[Birch_Wood]

Doesn't it make sense that most QB's throw the ball or hand it off, so that would effect the average.

 

[Mobinvans]

Anyone that thinks this offense runs through anybody but Zeke is woefully wrong.....

Zeke is basically our whole offense dude

 

[yimyammer]

Here is comes....the tidal wave of statistical crap...to justify this ridiculous Dak contract. Brace yourself.

 

[charron]

To be fair, this cuts both ways.

If opposing defenses don’t key on Dak, thats foolish on their part. He gets 6 rushing TD’s a season. Plus he has an additional 2 rushing TD’s in 3 playoff games and a two point conversion in the playoffs.

If defenses aren’t trying to find a way to stop Dak’s running in the redzone. They are dumb.

Other aspects of the offense benefit from Dak’s
Ability to run. When they run a read option, Zeke has one less defender to deal with because the defensive end has to stay home and account for Dak’s ability to run off the edge. Just like his running benefits from Zeke and the OL. It’s symbiotic.

I assume it's cause the coaches reluctance to have him run much. Linehan or Garret's offense doesn't call for the QB to run too much. The RB is obviously the 1st priority then the #1 receiver. Stop those 2 and the chance to hold us to only 3 is much better.

 

[kskboys]

Completely irrelevant stat.

 

[Verdict]

I like Prescott better than most but that stat is misleading because he doesn’t run the ball all that much. When he does defenses are not expecting it. I have been calling for more QB keepers.

 

[mattjames2010]

I like Prescott better than most but that stat is misleading because he doesn’t run the ball all that much. When he does defenses are not expecting it. I have been calling for more QB keepers.

The more you call, the more defenses will game plan to shut it down. Which means, either Elliott will have to do better in the red zone or Prescott will have to do better with his arm.

Defenses aren't dumb. They aren't just giving away those yards to Prescott for no reason.

 

[ColoradoCowboy]

Dak is very good to elite at a lot of things.

Watch the Dak-haters do mental gymnastics every time there are stats relating to Dak.

Its actually kind of entertaining to watch.

I'm going to LOVE the mental gymnastics that occur after Dak leads us to #6.

Especially if Garrett is the coach. It will be the Olympic Games of mental gymnastics.

 

[buybuydandavis]

Run Dak in the Red Zone. Duh. A running QB is a huge weapon when the field gets crowded.

 

[buybuydandavis]

The more you call, the more defenses will game plan to shut it down. Which means, either Elliott will have to do better in the red zone or Prescott will have to do better with his arm.

Not just that they will *have* to do better, but they *should* be able to do better if teams start keying on Dak as a runner.

We have a capable extra run threat at QB. We should be making the most of that threat.

 

[buybuydandavis]

In fact, they need to run him a lot more than they do in general to maximize what they are going to end paying him.

Trouble is, when you plunk down 100mil guaranteed for a player, you have to be more conservative with injury risk.

Me, I wanted us to churn running QBs. Save a ton of money, get extra threat out of your QB. But that's not in the cards.

 

[Hoofbite]

There is another player who surpasses those cutoffs. Seems quite a few are closer than not being "anywhere close". Kind of shocked Bob missed Alex Collins.

 

[percyhoward]

Yards per rush isn't a very useful stat in the red zone, where a greater percentage of runs are short-yardage plays. Your average actually suffers even when the play is successful and you convert. It makes more sense to look at successful plays. A play is considered successful if it gains 40% of the yards needed on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down.

For example, a 2-yard run on 2nd & 3 is considered successful. That same 2-yard run on 2nd & 4 is not a successful run. (Teams convert 61% of the time on 3rd & 1 in the red zone, but only 49% of the time on on 3rd & 2.)

Red Zone
Successful Runs
2016-17
Elliott 44
Prescott 17

2018
Elliott 20
Prescott 16

 

[CowboyStar88]

He needs to use his legs more. He’s very good in the red zone when he uses them. The stats back the eye ball test on this one IMO.

 

[Scotman]

If Dak signs a 4 or 5 year contract for ALL THE MONEY, I'm still down for running him frequently on designed plays. I've always shied away from running QB's because they get hurt. But if we are putting our eggs in that basket...have him run the ball. He's a big dude. He's more effective as a leader of the offense when he takes off once in a while. If we are going to end up in salary cap hell again because of his contract, squeeze everything out of him that you can. You're going to wind up saddled either way, give me a shot at winning the whole thing again. I don't know that he can do that standing in the pocket and not using his legs, too.

I like Dak, and I'm really hopeful this year is his best yet, but he's unlike anything I envisioned as our primary QB.

 

[xwalker]

What gives you that clue?

At least he has a clue...

 

[kskboys]

If you start running your QB more, success takes a downward plunge, as will his health.

 

[Vanilla2]

I like turtles.

 

[kskboys]

A RB running in the red zone is a planned run, and the D collapses to stop him. They are ready.

A QB running in the red zone is mostly a broken play, and often the S's and LB's have dropped back into coverage so there are often gaping holes to gallop through. Completely different situation.

Geez, can't believe I hv to explain this. And there are many on here who would've done a much better job than I.

 

[Kevinicus]

A RB running in the red zone is a planned run, and the D collapses to stop him. They are ready.

A QB running in the red zone is mostly a broken play, and often the S's and LB's have dropped back into coverage so there are often gaping holes to gallop through. Completely different situation.

Geez, can't believe I hv to explain this. And there are many on here who would've done a much better job than I.

Or, as is most often the case here, it's a read option where the defense goes to Zeke. None of it is about anything special Dak does, just that he is athletic and capable enough to run those plays, and has the NFL's top runner drawing focus.