Breer (MMQB) annual QB poll

[Acceptablename]

Herbert has never had anywhere close to the talent on offense that Dak has enjoyed pretty much his entire career.

I like Herbert but he has a great coach now and supporting cast. Time to show up

 

[shabazz]

I'm not making this argument because Herbert is ranked ahead of Dak. I'm trying to understand the criteria being used to rank him so highly.

Herbert has now been in the NFL for six seasons and has made three playoff starts. His postseason record is 0-3, and across those three games he has completed 58 of 106 passes (just 54.7%) for 674 yards, 2 TDs and 4 INTs.

That's a pretty small sample, so I'm not suggesting three games define his career. Look, Herbert clearly has talent, and I'm not arguing otherwise. His regular-season production is impressive. But there's a difference between projecting what a quarterback will accomplish and ranking him based on what he has actually accomplished.

I hear the same argument every year about Herbert being an elite/top-tier QB, and I'm genuinely curious what I'm missing. Six years into his career, he still hasn't won a playoff game.

If we're ranking quarterbacks based on talent and potential, that's one conversation. If we're ranking them based on actual performance and accomplishments, I don't understand how Herbert consistently gets ranked as highly as he does.

Fair point.

He continues to be ranked high because he's a 1st round pick, 6'6 , athletic, and a rocket arm......but he's done nothing to write about yet.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Herbert has never had anywhere close to the talent on offense that Dak has enjoyed pretty much his entire career.

This is bs. Herbert has had talent just because espn doesn’t overhype them doesn’t mean they weren’t talented.

 

[Vtwin]

Per Albert Breer: This year, I sent out nearly 200 requests for votes, knowing that cut-down week is a busy one, and some people won’t get back to me. This year, we received 104 ballots. All 32 teams had voters in this poll, and 30 of the 32 had multiple voters, so we have a diverse cross-section of the league. Among the voters—GMs, personnel executives, head coaches, offensive and pass-game coordinators and quarterbacks coaches—we received ballots from 20 head coaches and 21 general managers.

Going by his statement, his ballots were completed in an unofficial, voluntary method. The reported initial response is telling, namely, a slightly more than 50% cooperative rate. It can be speculated that those who actually responded did not fully complete Breer's ballots.

It may be simply a case where respondents took enough time to answer specific categories and ignored any they did not find important. It would certainly help explain some of the overall voting disparities.

That's all pretty straightforward. I understood that.

My question has more to do with how Breer determined the ranking past the first four.

The survey asked for each responder to rank their top five QB's. The results he published indicate the number of responders who included that QB on their list of top 5. The ranking indicates that NFL experts see Jackson as the 5th ranked QB but the results show that more than 50% of the experts did not include him in their top five. In other words, over half the experts who responded did not think Jackson was top five. Yet there he is ranked as number five on a list presented as reflecting the opinions of panel of NFL experts.

It gets worse from there. More than 75% of the responding experts never mentioned Herbert or Prescott so how is Breer determining that NFL experts rank them six and seven?

It seems he has some sort of point system giving guys points for each mention on a responders top five list. That gives him numbers from which to rank but those numbers ignore the much bigger number of experts who never even mentioned that QB.

The only conclusion I see in this poll is that NFL experts generally agree that Allen, Stafford, Mahomes and Burrow are the leagues best. After that there is no evidence of any sort of a consensus of experts that agree on the ranking of the rest of the guys on the list.

Presenting these results as a reflection of the thoughts of 104 NFL experts seems disingenuous.

 

[DallasEast]

That's all pretty straightforward. I understood that.

My question has more to do with how Breer determined the ranking past the first four.

The survey asked for each responder to rank their top five QB's. The results he published indicate the number of responders who included that QB on their list of top 5. The ranking indicates that NFL experts see Jackson as the 5th ranked QB but the results show that more than 50% of the experts did not include him in their top five. In other words, over half the experts who responded did not think Jackson was top five. Yet there he is ranked as number five on a list presented as reflecting the opinions of panel of NFL experts.

It gets worse from there. More than 75% of the responding experts never mentioned Herbert or Prescott so how is Breer determining that NFL experts rank them six and seven?

It seems he has some sort of point system giving guys points for each mention on a responders top five list. That gives him numbers from which to rank but those numbers ignore the much bigger number of experts who never even mentioned that QB.

The only conclusion I see in this poll is that NFL experts generally agree that Allen, Stafford, Mahomes and Burrow are the leagues best. After that there is no evidence of any sort of a consensus of experts that agree on the ranking of the rest of the guys on the list.

Presenting these results as a reflection of the thoughts of 104 NFL experts seems disingenuous.

I would agree with it labeling it disingenuous because the process he describes is inherently flawed. His methodology is almost as casually constructed as humanly possible. It is almost like he bulked email blasted a base survey basically asking, "I know you're busy, but could you tell me who your favorite player is? Pretty please?"

 

[McKDaddy]

Darnold is underrated to me. Allen is overrated.

Guys like Eli, Hurts and Darnold are told they are mediocre because they don’t have the regular season stats or pass the “eye test”.

Burrow to me is a great qb but once again he doesn’t pass the test of playoff success

Agree on Darnold. I think another strong year & the casual fans will get on the band wagon. I also agree that Eli, Hurts did their part in playoff runs. Eli was always a good QB but never flashy. He got so gun shy of the hits late in his career that he wasn't going to stand in there. Not sure what has been going on recently with Hurts as he hasn't looked as good.

It confuses me that you see better play than most folks in guys like that but you say Allen & Burrow are overrated. To me, those guys are clearly elite. Now Burrow needs to get out of Cincy before the lack of OL gets him killed. Would love to see that guy in a place actually trying to put a complete team around him.

 

[McKDaddy]

This is bs. Herbert has had talent just because espn doesn’t overhype them doesn’t mean they weren’t talented.

on offense?
OL has been horrendous (either thru injuries or just lack of talent) save maybe one season.
He had Keenan Allen who was still a good steady receiver but not a true #1. They've shuffled thru other receivers but have largely been dependent on receivers that would be depth on most teams. Maybe Johnston, McConkey & an overhauled TE room gives them a more viable core.
Running backs have basically suffered from the OL and their own injury issues.
They have had 6 different All Pro's during Herbert's time. Slater & Linsley from the OL both during the 2021 season. The others are Derwin James (three times) & three special teamers.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Agree on Darnold. I think another strong year & the casual fans will get on the band wagon. I also agree that Eli, Hurts did their part in playoff runs. Eli was always a good QB but never flashy. He got so gun shy of the hits late in his career that he wasn't going to stand in there. Not sure what has been going on recently with Hurts as he hasn't looked as good.

It confuses me that you see better play than most folks in guys like that but you say Allen & Burrow are overrated. To me, those guys are clearly elite. Now Burrow needs to get out of Cincy before the lack of OL gets him killed. Would love to see that guy in a place actually trying to put a complete team around him.

So with Burrow I see the elite
Played it just isn’t backed by success and hasn’t on a few years.

I rarely agree with Acho but he brought up a point I never thought. How you are introduced is the reputation you will more than likely carry. Romo was introduced for the bobbled snap and it carries on throughout his career. Darnold was regarded as a bust…it’s carrying on throughout his career despite having success with two different teams now.

I think that’s Burrow. We saw him win a natty then make a SB. That’s his reputation.

With Burrow I just feel he should have more
Playoff berths to show what he can do. He hasn’t. He’s about to be 30. Not old by any means but he’s older than guys in his class. And done less.

Josh Allen….i think he benefits from being overused. I think Bills overuse him all year and when the playoffs come his play goes down and his body is broken down. Is that a him issue? No. I think if the reigns were pulled in some he’d have more post season success. I personally wouldn’t run him as much as they do. It’s great for MvP but not great for team success.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

on offense?
OL has been horrendous (either thru injuries or just lack of talent) save maybe one season.
He had Keenan Allen who was still a good steady receiver but not a true #1. They've shuffled thru other receivers but have largely been dependent on receivers that would be depth on most teams. Maybe Johnston, McConkey & an overhauled TE room gives them a more viable core.
Running backs have basically suffered from the OL and their own injury issues.
They have had 6 different All Pro's during Herbert's time. Slater & Linsley from the OL both during the 2021 season. The others are Derwin James (three times) & three special teamers.

For most of his career he’s has Keenan Allen, McConkey, Hunter Henry, Ekeler, Mike Williams, Jared Cook, Quentin Johnston…just got Omarion Hampton(hurt) and Gasden and Njoku now.

He’s had weapons. People want to argue about his offensive line…ok a poor offensive line is an excuse not to win a SB. It’s not an excuse to not make the playoffs. We saw rookie CJ Stroud take a bad offensive line to the playoffs. We saw Burrow take a bad offensive line to the SB…we aren’t asking him to win with a porous line just get to the playoffs it’s such a low bar. Excuses continue to get made for him.

 

[McKDaddy]

So with Burrow I see the elite
Played it just isn’t backed by success and hasn’t on a few years.

I rarely agree with Acho but he brought up a point I never thought. How you are introduced is the reputation you will more than likely carry. Romo was introduced for the bobbled snap and it carries on throughout his career. Darnold was regarded as a bust…it’s carrying on throughout his career despite having success with two different teams now.

I think that’s Burrow. We saw him win a natty then make a SB. That’s his reputation.

With Burrow I just feel he should have more
Playoff berths to show what he can do. He hasn’t. He’s about to be 30. Not old by any means but he’s older than guys in his class. And done less.

Josh Allen….i think he benefits from being overused. I think Bills overuse him all year and when the playoffs come his play goes down and his body is broken down. Is that a him issue? No. I think if the reigns were pulled in some he’d have more post season success. I personally wouldn’t run him as much as they do. It’s great for MvP but not great for team success.

There is no doubt that first impressions can carry on longer than they should (good or bad).

I can't fault Burrow though for team results when we know that organization isn't focused on winning (or protecting him)

I think Allen has carried that team most years. They have improved the talent around him in recent years but always seem to have weak spot or 2 though. He plays more often than most QB's in the "elements". I don't remember his play being the issue in recent playoffs. He has went toe to toe with Mahomes in at least 3 of the 4 playoff matchups. He has 1039 passing yards, 9 TD, 1 Int & 100.2 passer rating in those 4 meetings. Plus 267 yards rushing & 2 more TD's. I just can't fault him when he's contributing that much. "Average" QB's lose all those games by double digits.

 

[McKDaddy]

For most of his career he’s has Keenan Allen, McConkey, Hunter Henry, Ekeler, Mike Williams, Jared Cook, Quentin Johnston…just got Omarion Hampton(hurt) and Gasden and Njoku now.

He’s had weapons. People want to argue about his offensive line…ok a poor offensive line is an excuse not to win a SB. It’s not an excuse to not make the playoffs. We saw rookie CJ Stroud take a bad offensive line to the playoffs. We saw Burrow take a bad offensive line to the SB…we aren’t asking him to win with a porous line just get to the playoffs it’s such a low bar. Excuses continue to get made for him.

As I said though, he had a lot of those guys at back end of career, injuries of their own, etc.. Yes, they are now getting serious about giving him weapons but Johnston continues to be a boom \ bust kinda guy. McConkey is a solid player perhaps with upside remaining. But even if both of them are playing at or near top of their abilities, are either of them a true #1? a top 10 duo?

They have made the playoffs three times. Scored 27 in first half & 30 total against Jax. Surely, we aren't saying that loss was on Herbert?

Texans, that D is nasty. We all know it. They were simply outmatched.

Same but to lesser extent against NE last year. They had been decimated by injury again.

In short, I look at it more as his talents covered deficiencies & got them to places they probably shouldn't have been.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

There is no doubt that first impressions can carry on longer than they should (good or bad).

I can't fault Burrow though for team results when we know that organization isn't focused on winning (or protecting him)

I think Allen has carried that team most years. They have improved the talent around him in recent years but always seem to have weak spot or 2 though. He plays more often than most QB's in the "elements". I don't remember his play being the issue in recent playoffs. He has went toe to toe with Mahomes in at least 3 of the 4 playoff matchups. He has 1039 passing yards, 9 TD, 1 Int & 100.2 passer rating in those 4 meetings. Plus 267 yards rushing & 2 more TD's. I just can't fault him when he's contributing that much. "Average" QB's lose all those games by double digits.

I’m not faulting Burrow solely but his body has broken down some years and it’s unfair but it’s his body. I’m not saying this makes him bad I’m just saying he’s getting a elite title for a SB from years ago and btw it wasn’t like he carried them
His play was very similar to Darnolds last run but no one would ever say that.

I’ve seen a few of Allen’s playoff games and there’s always a few players where he just does something stupid. And it’s not because he’s stupid it’s because he’s overused and too dependent on him. He’s not Mahomes. But the Bills pretend he is.

I mean even last year against the Broncos they almost won and probably do win if not for Allen’s mistakes. 16 seconds left in the half he fumbles and Broncos get the field goal. This game went into OT btw. Just stupid.

They will say he doesn’t have help and fair enough but the defense got an interception for him just for him to throw it right back….



This one is one do the most mind boggling things I’ve ever seen.



He just has these weird moments.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

As I said though, he had a lot of those guys at back end of career, injuries of their own, etc.. Yes, they are now getting serious about giving him weapons but Johnston continues to be a boom \ bust kinda guy. McConkey is a solid player perhaps with upside remaining. But even if both of them are playing at or near top of their abilities, are either of them a true #1? a top 10 duo?

They have made the playoffs three times. Scored 27 in first half & 30 total against Jax. Surely, we aren't saying that loss was on Herbert?

Texans, that D is nasty. We all know it. They were simply outmatched.

Same but to lesser extent against NE last year. They had been decimated by injury again.

In short, I look at it more as his talents covered deficiencies & got them to places they probably shouldn't have been.

That Jags game was years ago and that was a game where the Chargers failed to score more than 3 points in the 2nd half. That was a choke job.

That Texans defense was solid but you’re like or exaggerating how good. That was the 2024 defense not the 2025 that was elite.

It’s amazing though these are called excuses for any other QB but for Herbert it’s explanations. I don’t understand what he’s done to warrant such defending. Burrow I get. Mahomes I get. Lamar I get. But no one would dare give those guys the excuse of offensive line or defenses being too good.

 

[McKDaddy]

That Jags game was years ago and that was a game where the Chargers failed to score more than 3 points in the 2nd half. That was a choke job.

That Texans defense was solid but you’re like or exaggerating how good. That was the 2024 defense not the 2025 that was elite.

It’s amazing though these are called excuses for any other QB but for Herbert it’s explanations. I don’t understand what he’s done to warrant such defending. Burrow I get. Mahomes I get. Lamar I get. But no one would dare give those guys the excuse of offensive line or defenses being too good.

Team game, did Herbert lose those games? Or were the teams just not good enough. easy answer for me. I agree it was a choke but the QB should have been able to sit the second half with a 20 point halftime lead IF his teams defense was playoff worthy.

I don't think its an excuse to assign or excuse blame based on individual perfomance or lack thereof.

Ok, well the Texans D was blooming by the 2024 playoffs. Their season average was 21.9. In the playoffs it was like 17.5. They were second in points per drive. Those are all better than solid.

It's OK if we see it differently.

 

[DarkVader33]

Agree on Darnold. I think another strong year & the casual fans will get on the band wagon. I also agree that Eli, Hurts did their part in playoff runs. Eli was always a good QB but never flashy. He got so gun shy of the hits late in his career that he wasn't going to stand in there. Not sure what has been going on recently with Hurts as he hasn't looked as good.

It confuses me that you see better play than most folks in guys like that but you say Allen & Burrow are overrated. To me, those guys are clearly elite. Now Burrow needs to get out of Cincy before the lack of OL gets him killed. Would love to see that guy in a place actually trying to put a complete team around him.

So Burrows needs a complete team? But Dak shouldn’t need a complete team? And don’t get me wrong, Burrows is elite and Dak is not. Just pointing out the hypocrisy and it may not be necessarily you

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Team game, did Herbert lose those games? Or were the teams just not good enough. easy answer for me. I agree it was a choke but the QB should have been able to sit the second half with a 20 point halftime lead IF his teams defense was playoff worthy.

I don't think its an excuse to assign or excuse blame based on individual perfomance or lack thereof.

Ok, well the Texans D was blooming by the 2024 playoffs. Their season average was 21.9. In the playoffs it was like 17.5. They were second in points per drive. Those are all better than solid.

It's OK if we see it differently.

We can’t say he should’ve sat because teams go on runs. We see it all the time in the NFL. A 20 point lead is nothing in the NFL. 28 points? I can see. But losing by 20 all you have to do is score and get a stop and score again and you’re back in it. And it was the Jags. It’s not like it was the Chiefs….

And for the record I’m not saying you are wrong. I’m just questioning why he gets defended like this. Nothing is ever his fault and I don’t say that because of you he typically doesn’t get much blame but like I brought up earlier his introduction to the league was so good I guess people give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

[McKDaddy]

So Burrows needs a complete team? But Dak shouldn’t need a complete team? And don’t get me wrong, Burrows is elite and Dak is not. Just pointing out the hypocrisy and it may not be necessarily you

All QB's who win a SB need a pretty complete team. Never said otherwise.

Burrows is elite but what he's getting as support is right off the Jerry marketing plan. Haslam should pay Jerry some royalties. Keep a few offensive stars, because offense sells & keeps the fans engaged while doing the bare minimum on the rest of the team.

Note that I haven't said any team Dak has been on has been championship worthy (Maybe the 16 team if things fell just right). What I have always said is that Dak hasn't been good enough. Other QB's could have gotten those same teams further.

We haven't seen the current team play a single game but give me a QB like Burrows and I'm twitching about the possibilites even though it's not a "perfect roster". I guarantee Vegas would also change their odds.

There are clearly QB's who can do more with less. After that group, they better play really clean ball and have a very good cast around them. You move on from those at the earliest convenience.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

So Burrows needs a complete team? But Dak shouldn’t need a complete team? And don’t get me wrong, Burrows is elite and Dak is not. Just pointing out the hypocrisy and it may not be necessarily you

The Burrow discussion is something people dont' want to talk about but is he truly elite? Elite is selective company that can do more with less. Which is not many guys. I'd probably say its just Mahomes who's proven it. Came into the league with talent and lost Tyreek and was still able to produce on offense. Didn't do it alone but that's the closet you can get. Brady as well can make that argument.

Burrow won a national title with Justin Jefferson and Jamarr Chase who happen to be the two best receivers in the NFL....gets to the NFL and now has Higgins and Chase and also had Tyler Boyd.

My argument isn't he's not elite. Its just he hasn't had to be.

 

[Nav22]

So why have we had to endure all these years of Top 5 & MVP talk?

Better question:

So why did so many mouth-breathers routinely bash their favorite team's top 10 QB?

If the shoe fits......

 

[Flamma]

He didn't have that run game last year--Barkley broke 1,000 yards but the run game was not there. He was stuck with a garbage OC, a coach that according to CZ stinks to high heaven, a #1 WR that quit halfway through the season, an O-line that had every player but one injured at one time or another and still threw for 3200+ yards with 25 TD's and only 6 Int's while adding 8 rush TD's in 16 games. The hate for Hurts is ridiculous. You'd think he was barely better than Dilfer reading some of the comments about him.

This isn't 1970, 3200 yards passing isn't very impressive. In 2023 Sam Howell threw for almost 4000 yards and 21 TDs. 3200 yards is not impressive.