News: BTB: Tony Romo: The Choke Artist Myth And Elimination Vs. Playoff Hunt Games

[WPBCowboysFan]

Myths about Tony Romo being a choke artist get debunked routinely, so someone created the "elimination games" stat. Here is a closer look at that "statistical proof" and a new stat for "playoff hunt" games.

I always laugh at the "statistical proof" used to define Tony Romo's ability in big games...excuse me, elimination games. When an undrafted rookie rises to the helm of theDallas Cowboys and becomes one of the Top-10 QBs in the league, you have a cornucopia of factors that are sure to create drama and inspire the anti-Cowboys nation. At every turn, memes and myths would pop up taking shots at Romo's abilities, and BTB (and other media sources) would often disprove those fallacies in short order. First, it was claimed that Romo's statistical superiority didn't matter because he couldn't get it done in the fourth-quarter. Then it became about Romo not being able to play well in the important games late in the season. But the truth shall set you free...

• Romo ranks sixth among active QBs for the most fourth-quarter comebacks - playing fewer games than anyone ahead of him on that list and those below him on the Top 10 list
• Romo ranks ninth among active QBs for the most game winning drives - again, playing fewer games than those above him on the list
• Romo has had phenomenal fourth-quarter QB ratings. This 2012 article states his career 102.1 QB rating in the fourth-quarter is the best among active QBs in the league, considerably surpassing the elite QBs like Aaron Rodgers,Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. His 2012 rating (101.2) and 2013 rating (105.6) means he is likely still the best in the league in the fourth-quarter.
• In games in Dec. and Jan. Romo has 63.3 completion % and 50 TD vs. 29 INT

So after all these previous myths were debunked, the national media create a new statistic to show viewers why they had been badmouthing Tony Romo...the elimination game stat.

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For the sake of time, let's breeze past my adamant objections to terms like "big games" and "chokes when it matters" being used based off of this 'elimination game data set.' Because every game in a 16-game schedule holds important playoff ramifications, and matchups against division rivals are "big games," and nationally televised games are "big games," and week 15 and 16 games that must be won to keep your team in the playoff hunt are "big games," and matchups to clinch a playoff spot are "big games," and week 17 matchups for the division crown are "big games." So, let's just ignore the problem with this definition of important elimination games, which boils down to a limited data set used as empirical evidence to one of the greatest intangibles in sports.
Let's just concentrate on the limited scope of this great derogatory myth, because even that makes me laugh.



Read the entire piece here:

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2014...-cowboys-myths-elimination-playoff-hunt-games

 

[BIGDen]

Excellent article. He's a great QB and the numbers back it up again and again and again...

 

[Nightman]

There are lies, damn lies and statistics. The truth is Romo is a very good QB that has led teams that have come up short time and time again. He has plenty of 4th comebacks and has had some great games against great teams, but we just can't throw away his sub-par performances in a lot of big games. He isn't a "choker" and his reputation with the National media is unfair, but he doesn't have the skins on the wall yet. Hopefully he will get some starting this year.

 

[Maxmadden]

It would just be so much easier if everyone would just admit that he wasn't the problem, and move on to fixating on the real problems.

Perfect? No. But not the problem.

 

[Setackin]

I think bad inconsistent coaching is the biggest problem

 

[Picksix]

I think bad inconsistent coaching is the biggest problem

Quite possibly. You could also substitue "defense" for "coaching".

BTW, I think you can check the next two items off in your sig.

 

[Fredd]

Quite possibly. You could also substitue "defense" for "coaching".

BTW, I think you can check the next two items off in your sig.

You can substitute "Ownership" OR "Front Office" for defense or coaching as well (although, I like the off-season moves this year so far)

 

[Califan007]

First, it was claimed that Romo's statistical superiority didn't matter because he couldn't get it done in the fourth-quarter.

Who claimed this?...

First, it was that Romo's statistical superiority in September-November didn't matter because he "couldn't get it done" in December...and from 2006-2008 the stats backed that viewpoint up.

After Romo's December stats improved greatly, then the focus fell on "elimination" games, which is what playoff games are. For all intents and purposes, the cowboys were in the playoffs the last game of the 2008, 2011 and 2012 seasons as both they and their opponents were in win-or-go-home situations, which is exactly what the playoffs are. And Romo's performances in those games have been generally worse than his other games in December. The criticism became that whatever improvements he made in his play during December, those improvements tended to disappear once in the "playoffs" (win or go home games). 2009 is the only exception.

It's a valid observation. 4th quarter stats, number of game winning drives and an attempt to make the 3rd game in September as equally important as the last game of the year when a loss ends your season doesn't debunk anything. That stuff helps to show that Romo is a good QB...but it doesn't negate the criticism.

 

[Setackin]

Quite possibly. You could also substitue "defense" for "coaching".

BTW, I think you can check the next two items off in your sig.

True but Defense is the product of the coaching. Caps not under control til after dez and tyron are signed.

 

[CCBoy]

I think bad inconsistent coaching is the biggest problem

I have an idea...why don't you post about a zillion posts of that very same thing?

 

[Sportsbabe]

There are lies, damn lies and statistics. The truth is Romo is a very good QB that has led teams that have come up short time and time again. He has plenty of 4th comebacks and has had some great games against great teams, but we just can't throw away his sub-par performances in a lot of big games. He isn't a "choker" and his reputation with the National media is unfair, but he doesn't have the skins on the wall yet. Hopefully he will get some starting this year.

As the great philosopher Jay-Z once said: "men lie, women lie but numbers don't lie".

 

[CCBoy]

True but Defense is the product of the coaching. Caps not under control til after dez and tyron are signed.

Blame it on the O'Mallys, blame it on the O'Mallys, make love to a pretty damsel,...............and blame it on the O'Mallys.

The coaching staff is top notched.

 

[CCBoy]

The thing here is that the month of December, the 'black 'n blue' month...is a team thing. The team either arrives with a season long hunger, or it doesn't. The players on the Cowboys have the hunger for talent, the question becomes whether they have the guts to take what it then takes to get beyond the black and blue.

 

[Doomsday101]

I watched it with Don Meredith and Danny White both very good QB but they were blamed as well for the teams shortcomings. It will never matter the numbers Romo post he will take the blame for the teams shortcomings unless or until this team wins a championship. I don't agree with this mindset but it is just the way it is and has always been.

 

[CCBoy]

I watched it with Don Meredith and Danny White both very good QB but they were blamed as well for the teams shortcomings. It will never matter the numbers Romo post he will take the blame for the teams shortcomings unless or until this team wins a championship. I don't agree with this mindset but it is just the way it is and has always been.

I don't challenge what you say at all. Myself, I was a collegiate football player and then a soldier for a career. I just have to carry a positive, and win at all cost attitude from a positive base. No matter how bad it gets, one still has to hold hope of getting through and things getting better. That doesn't happen with the extra baggage of annoying nannies who have a goal in life of keeping all others down to their own low levels of value.

 

[casmith07]

It would just be so much easier if everyone would just admit that he wasn't the problem, and move on to fixating on the real problems.

Perfect? No. But not the problem.

Well we might have actually had fans hollering about defensive youth, the safety position, and offensive line a long time ago and won like 4 Super Bowls by now.

 

[Setackin]

I have an idea...why don't you post about a zillion posts of that very same thing?

Im working on it, give me time.

 

[Setackin]

Blame it on the O'Mallys, blame it on the O'Mallys, make love to a pretty damsel,...............and blame it on the O'Mallys.

The coaching staff is top notched.

Top notch? Were u watching replays of the 90s every sunday last year?

Thanks for quoting every time I posted today, almost had nothing to do in the bathroom.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Documentaries are routinely slanted toward the agenda of the documentarist. So too articles like this.

 

[burmafrd]

Documentaries are routinely slanted toward the agenda of the documentarist. So too articles like this.

in other words unless it agrees with me its wrong