News: BTB: Why last year doesn’t matter in the NFL and why it’s okay to be optimistic

[JustChip]

Additionally, the NFC East hasn't had back to back division champs since 2004. Thus, this division is wide open. I'd rather take an optimistic approach for our season than a pessimistic approach. Could we miss the playoffs? Sure. Could we win the Super Bowl? Sure! Do we know what will happen? Nope! In fact, if the World Cup taught us anything, you can't really predict sports, can you?

And it's really not just the NFCE. In the last 7 years, only 21% of the NFC division champs repeated as such the following year. That means that on average only 1 team repeats as division champ the following year. And the most in that time has been 2. Going a step further, only 45% of the playoff teams were once again in the playoffs the following year. So, on average, there are 3 new playoff teams each year (and only 4 repeated once).

The takeaway is, yes, last year is important, but it's doesn't dictate this year. It's difficult to repeat and sustain success in the NFC. Injuries are a huge factor and there is no way to predict for those. Should Aaron Rodgers go down for the count during camp or early in the year, you can stick a fork in the Pack 'cause they're done. Honestly, the same would be true for any of the NFC contenders. And, yes, that includes the Eagles. Foles, as well as the Eagles team as a whole, got on a tremendous run and just clicked - he did the same under Chip Kelly, but it didn't carry over to the following year. Maybe he's different now, but history suggests otherwise.

Bottom line is there is no reason to think the Cowboys can't be a playoff team, nor the division winner. As far as what happens once in the playoffs, there's no reason to get the cart before the horse at this point.

 

[RustyBourneHorse]

And it's really not just the NFCE. In the last 7 years, only 21% of the NFC division champs repeated as such the following year. That means that on average only 1 team repeats as division champ the following year. And the most in that time has been 2. Going a step further, only 45% of the playoff teams were once again in the playoffs the following year. So, on average, there are 3 new playoff teams each year (and only 4 repeated once).

The takeaway is, yes, last year is important, but it's doesn't dictate this year. It's difficult to repeat and sustain success in the NFC. Injuries are a huge factor and there is no way to predict for those. Should Aaron Rodgers go down for the count during camp or early in the year, you can stick a fork in the Pack 'cause they're done. Honestly, the same would be true for any of the NFC contenders. And, yes, that includes the Eagles. Foles, as well as the Eagles team as a whole, got on a tremendous run and just clicked - he did the same under Chip Kelly, but it didn't carry over to the following year. Maybe he's different now, but history suggests otherwise.

Bottom line is there is no reason to think the Cowboys can't be a playoff team, nor the division winner. As far as what happens once in the playoffs, there's no reason to get the cart before the horse at this point.

Exactly. We don't know what this year will bring. Simply put, we could be great, we could be absolutely dreadful, we could be mediocre, or the stadium could implode. We don't know what will happen.

 

[jobberone]

Didn't read it all so..... 40-60% of teams in the playoffs didn't make them the previous year. Hope for the weary.

 

[jobberone]

And it's really not just the NFCE. In the last 7 years, only 21% of the NFC division champs repeated as such the following year. That means that on average only 1 team repeats as division champ the following year. And the most in that time has been 2. Going a step further, only 45% of the playoff teams were once again in the playoffs the following year. So, on average, there are 3 new playoff teams each year (and only 4 repeated once).

The takeaway is, yes, last year is important, but it's doesn't dictate this year. It's difficult to repeat and sustain success in the NFC. Injuries are a huge factor and there is no way to predict for those. Should Aaron Rodgers go down for the count during camp or early in the year, you can stick a fork in the Pack 'cause they're done. Honestly, the same would be true for any of the NFC contenders. And, yes, that includes the Eagles. Foles, as well as the Eagles team as a whole, got on a tremendous run and just clicked - he did the same under Chip Kelly, but it didn't carry over to the following year. Maybe he's different now, but history suggests otherwise.

Bottom line is there is no reason to think the Cowboys can't be a playoff team, nor the division winner. As far as what happens once in the playoffs, there's no reason to get the cart before the horse at this point.

Well, I saw this and read after I posted. Basically, what I said but more eloquent and more info. Nice post.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

The Cowboys have about the same odds of winning the super bowl as I have of hooking up with Kate Beckinsale.

Well your odds must be very good then

 

[waving monkey]

Why does anyone need an okay to be optimistic and why rain on the parade of those that are? What the hell makes those not optimistic want to bring those down that are? The pleasure of pessimism?

In an conference that hasn't had a repeat winner in two seasons in the divisions and a division that hasn't had one in 13 seasons, the past does not dictate the future.

Objectively, I see these teams better than the Cowboys on paper and healthy: PHL, GB, MIN, NO, ATL and LAR. I see the Cowboys in the next group with AZ, CAR, SEA and maybe SF if their QB is for real.

One thing about the Cowboys and this season, there are enough unknowns to supply enough for optimism or pessimism, it is simply a choice.

But this anger towards Garrett fueling pessimism does not take into account that he's had two 13 win seasons out of the last four and could have another this season because no one predicted those other two.

You tell me the Cowboys are going to stay healthy and my Optimeter needle is going pretty good. The lack of quality depth and what happens when just one or two key players is out keeps my needle in the neutral zone.

its a generalized anxiety disorder. Something I think the NFL might do well to look into.

 

[JustChip]

Well, I saw this and read after I posted. Basically, what I said but more eloquent and more info. Nice post.

Thank you. I only ent back 7 years due to time constraints. I’m going to go back some more, but I fully expect the data to be consistent.

 

[OmerV]

The Cowboys have about the same odds of winning the super bowl as I have of hooking up with Kate Beckinsale.

If the Cowboys got to the Super Bowl they would have a chance. If you got in the same room with Kate Beckinsale you still wouldn't.

 

[JustChip]

And it's really not just the NFCE. In the last 7 years, only 21% of the NFC division champs repeated as such the following year. That means that on average only 1 team repeats as division champ the following year. And the most in that time has been 2. Going a step further, only 45% of the playoff teams were once again in the playoffs the following year. So, on average, there are 3 new playoff teams each year (and only 4 repeated once).

The takeaway is, yes, last year is important, but it's doesn't dictate this year. It's difficult to repeat and sustain success in the NFC. Injuries are a huge factor and there is no way to predict for those. Should Aaron Rodgers go down for the count during camp or early in the year, you can stick a fork in the Pack 'cause they're done. Honestly, the same would be true for any of the NFC contenders. And, yes, that includes the Eagles. Foles, as well as the Eagles team as a whole, got on a tremendous run and just clicked - he did the same under Chip Kelly, but it didn't carry over to the following year. Maybe he's different now, but history suggests otherwise.

Bottom line is there is no reason to think the Cowboys can't be a playoff team, nor the division winner. As far as what happens once in the playoffs, there's no reason to get the cart before the horse at this point.

A follow-up to my first post. Going back 10 years, only 20% of the division winners have repeated as such with 5 years when NONE repeated. And only 40% of the playoffs teams were in the playoffs again the next year. Going back 15 years, the numbers improve slightly - 27% of the division winners repeat and 41% of the playoff teams return the following year.

So the numbers are pretty consistent over 5, 10 and 15 year windows. Never in the past 15 years have more than 2 division winners repeated as such and only twice have as many as 4 playoff teams returned the next year. Therefore, anybody that says all 2017 NFC playoffs teams will again be in the playoffs in 2018 obviously failed their history lessons.

Now, homework assignment for the CZ folks. Based on the above information:

1) Which 2 reigning division winners will NOT repeat in 2018? My money is on Philly and NO with Minny possible as a 3rd that doesn't win.
2) Which 3 playoffs teams from last year will NOT make the playoffs in 2018? Bear in mind that one or both of the reigning division winners that don't repeat as such could still make the playoffs as a Wild Card entry. I'm going with Carolina, New Orleans and Philly being left out in the cold this year.

 

[GMO415]

Well.... Cowboys are gaining serious momentum since going 9-7 without EzE for six games. Basically, everyone will be gunning for the iggles while Dal will be the victorious one in the NFCE

 

[waving monkey]

7 1/2 years and no NFL Championship Game for a Garrett-led team certainly doesn't seem to indicate that can happen.

slave to the past

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

Well the good news is the Cowboys seem to do better in even numbered years.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

If they really wanted parity, they'd give the last place team in the division the option to swap either their offense or defense with the division champion.

Now I like that idea. lol Oh wait. It wouldn't help us any. We're always in the middle. Can't even tank right.

 

[Jake]

7 1/2 years and no NFL Championship Game for a Garrett-led team certainly doesn't seem to indicate that can happen.

Only 7.5 years? You're selling these boys short. More like 3 times that number.

 

[Jake]

Cowboys have won more regular season games in past two seasons than Eagles have. Why fans think we can’t win a super bowl is beyond me.

 

[gimmesix]

slave to the past

ignorant of the past

 

[gimmesix]

Only 7.5 years? You're selling these boys short. More like 3 times that number.

We won three Super Bowls with the same owner and general manager, so that shows we can win despite them if we have the right head coach. There is nothing to indicate that Garrett is the right head coach.

Frankly, there are clear indications that we're drafting better, but we're not really getting better results. Some of that may be because of the way we use or don't use free agency to supplement the roster, while some is our failure to outcoach teams that have as much talent or more than ours.

 

[waving monkey]

ignorant of the past

touche