Bustaphobia...

[peplaw06]

I'm getting a little tired of hearing all this talk about trading up, and I know most people are. But at the same time it's the offseason, what else are we going to discuss? With that in mind, another thing I'm getting tired of is all this fear about making the splash move during the draft.

I'm not speaking only about McFadden (this is an annual discussion), but that's the obvious example of the splash move this year. Everyone thinks the safe play is to stand pat at 22 and 28, rather than move up, because McFadden could be a bust. Well, yeah he could be a bust, but so could the guys we draft at 22 and 28.

Ask yourself right now whether you'd trade a Terence Newman or a DeMarcus Ware for Marcus Spears and Bobby Carpenter?

Here are the guys drafted at 22 and 28 over the last 10 years.

2007 - Brady Quinn (QB) and Joe Staley (OL)
2006 - Manny Lawson (LB) and Marcedes Lewis (TE)
2005 - Mark Clayton (WR) and Luis Castillo (DL)
2004 - JP Losman (QB) and Chris Gamble (DB)
2003 - Rex Grossman (QB) and Andre Woolfolk (DB)
2002 - Bryan Thomas (DL) and Jeremy Stevens (TE)
2001 - Will Allen (DB) and Derrick Gibson (DB)
2000 - Chris McIntosh (OL) and Rob Morris (LB)
1999 - Lamar King (DL) and Andy Katzenmoyer (LB)
1998 - Tebucky Jones (DB) and RW McQuarters (DB)

Now I'm not advocating that we give up the farm to move up. But if the price is right... i.e. if we could get away with the two firsts (hell I'd throw in a 3rd-4th), I think the chances of hitting are better up in the Top 5-10.

I don't think you can be afraid of moving up.

 

[CF74]

I think the chances of hitting are better up in the Top 5-10.

Can you do us a similar chart for picks in that slot you mentioned? I'm very curious

 

[theogt]

Here are the #8 picks over that time:

Jamaal Anderson
Donte Whitner
Antrel Rolle
DeAngelo Hall
Jordan Gross
Roy Williams
David Terrell
Plaxico Burress
David Boston
Greg Ellis

Not particularly exciting. The only consistent pro-bowler is the one most of our fans want to get rid of.

 

[Cajuncowboy]

Here are the #8 picks over that time:

Jamaal Anderson
Donte Whitner
Antrel Rolle
DeAngelo Hall
Jordan Gross
Roy Williams
David Terrell
Plaxico Burress
David Boston
Greg Ellis

Not particularly exciting. The only consistent pro-bowler is the one most of our fans want to get rid of.

Good point!

 

[peplaw06]

Top 10 guys past 10 years...

2007

1 JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State Oakland Raiders
2 Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech Detroit Lions
3 Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin Cleveland Browns
4 Gaines Adams DE Clemson Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 Levi Brown OT Penn State Arizona Cardinals
6 LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State Washington Commanders
7 Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma Minnesota Vikings
8 Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas Atlanta Falcons
9 Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State Miami Dolphins
10 Amobi Okoye DT Louisville Houston Texans

2006

1 Mario Williams DE North Carolina State Houston Texans
2 Reggie Bush RB USC New Orleans Saints
3 Vince Young QB Texas Tennessee Titans
4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson T Virginia New York Jets
5 A.J. Hawk OLB Ohio State Green Bay Packers
6 Vernon Davis TE Maryland San Francisco 49ers
7 Michael Huff SS Texas Oakland Raiders
8 Donte Whitner SS Ohio State Buffalo Bills
9 Ernie Sims OLB Florida State Detroit Lions
10 Matt Leinart QB USC Arizona Cardinals

2005

1 Alex Smith QB Utah San Francisco 49ers
2 Ronnie Brown RB Auburn Miami Dolphins
3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan Cleveland Browns
4 Cedric Benson RB Texas Chicago Bears
5 Cadillac Williams RB Auburn Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6 Pacman Jones CB West Virginia Tennessee Titans
7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina Minnesota Vikings
8 Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Fla.) Arizona Cardinals
9 Carlos Rogers DB Auburn Washington Commanders
10 Mike Williams WR USC Detroit Lions

2004

1 Eli Manning QB Mississippi San Diego Chargers
2 Robert Gallery T Iowa Oakland Raiders
3 Larry Fitzgerald WR Pittsburgh Arizona Cardinals
4 Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State New York Giants
5 Sean Taylor FS Miami (Fla.) Washington Commanders
6 Kellen Winslow TE Miami (Fla.) Cleveland Browns
7 Roy Williams WR Texas Detroit Lions
8 DeAngelo Hall CB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons
9 Reggie Williams WR Washington Jacksonville Jaguars
10 Dunta Robinson CB South Carolina Houston Texans

2003

1 Carson Palmer QB USC Cincinnati Bengals
2 Charles Rogers WR Michigan State Detroit Lions
3 Andre Johnson WR Miami (Fla.) Houston Texans
4 Dewayne Robertson DT Kentucky New York Jets
5 Terence Newman CB Kansas State Dallas Cowboys
6 Johnathan Sullivan DT Georgia New Orleans Saints
7 Byron Leftwich QB Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars
8 Jordan Gross T Utah Carolina Panthers
9 Kevin Williams DE Oklahoma State Minnesota Vikings
10 Terrell Suggs OLB Arizona State Baltimore Ravens

2002

1 David Carr QB Fresno State Houston Texans
2 Julius Peppers DE North Carolina Carolina Panthers
3 Joey Harrington QB Oregon Detroit Lions
4 Mike Williams T Texas Buffalo Bills
5 Quentin Jammer DB Texas San Diego Chargers
6 Ryan Sims DT North Carolina Kansas City Chiefs
7 Bryant McKinnie T Miami (Fla.) Minnesota Vikings
8 Roy Williams FS Oklahoma Dallas Cowboys
9 John Henderson DT Tennessee Jacksonville Jaguars
10 Levi Jones T Arizona State Cincinnati Bengals

2001

1 Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons
2 Leonard Davis G Texas Arizona Cardinals
3 Gerard Warren DT Florida Cleveland Browns
4 Justin Smith DE Missouri Cincinnati Bengals
5 LaDainian Tomlinson RB Texas Christian San Diego Chargers
6 Richard Seymour DT Georgia New England Patriots
7 Andre Carter DE California San Francisco 49ers
8 David Terrell WR Michigan Chicago Bears
9 Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State Seattle Seahawks
10 Jamal Reynolds DE Florida State Green Bay Packers

2000

1 Courtney Brown DE Penn State Cleveland Browns
2 LaVar Arrington OLB Penn State Washington Commanders
3 Chris Samuels T Alabama Washington Commanders
4 Peter Warrick WR Florida State Cincinnati Bengals
5 Jamal Lewis RB Tennessee Baltimore Ravens
6 Corey Simon DT Florida State Philadelphia Eagles
7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia Arizona Cardinals
8 Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State Pittsburgh Steelers
9 Brian Urlacher MLB New Mexico Chicago Bears
10 Travis Taylor WR Florida Baltimore Ravens

1999

1 Tim Couch QB Kentucky Cleveland Browns
2 Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse Philadelphia Eagles
3 Akili Smith QB Oregon Cincinnati Bengals
4 Edgerrin James RB Miami (Fla.) Indianapolis Colts
5 Ricky Williams HB Texas New Orleans Saints
6 Torry Holt WR North Carolina State St. Louis Rams
7 Champ Bailey CB Georgia Washington Commanders
8 David Boston WR Ohio State Arizona Cardinals
9 Chris Claiborne OLB USC Detroit Lions
10 Chris McAlister CB Arizona Baltimore Ravens

1998

1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee Indianapolis Colts
2 Ryan Leaf QB Washington State San Diego Chargers
3 Andre Wadsworth DE Florida State Arizona Cardinals
4 Charles Woodson CB Michigan Oakland Raiders
5 Curtis Enis RB Penn State Chicago Bears
6 Grant Wistrom DE Nebraska St. Louis Rams
7 Kyle Turley G San Diego State New Orleans Saints
8 Greg Ellis DE North Carolina Dallas Cowboys
9 Fred Taylor RB Florida Jacksonville Jaguars
10 Duane Starks CB Miami (Fla.) Baltimore Ravens

 

[peplaw06]

Here are the #8 picks over that time:

Curious as to why you chose #8?? Draft value chart?

 

[theogt]

Curious as to why you chose #8?? Draft value chart?

You said 'top 5-10' so I just picked a random number between 5 and 10.

 

[peplaw06]

You said 'top 5-10' so I just picked a random number between 5 and 10.

Sorry, when I say Top 5-10, I'm including 1-10. I guess that was unclear by the way I worded it.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

I'm not against moving up some if something is there we really want but i'm not at all advocating trying to move up into the top 5. To do so you'd just have too give up way too much.

We have more than a couple of things we really need upgrades at, rather than just getting one player.

 

[CF74]

I'm not against moving up some if something is there we really want but i'm not at all advocating trying to move up into the top 5. To do so you'd just have too give up way too much.

We have more than a couple of things we really need upgrades at, rather than just getting one player.

What about 6-10? Which is what I thought this thread was about...

 

[skinsscalper]

I'm getting a little tired of hearing all this talk about trading up, and I know most people are. But at the same time it's the offseason, what else are we going to discuss? With that in mind, another thing I'm getting tired of is all this fear about making the splash move during the draft.

I'm not speaking only about McFadden (this is an annual discussion), but that's the obvious example of the splash move this year. Everyone thinks the safe play is to stand pat at 22 and 28, rather than move up, because McFadden could be a bust. Well, yeah he could be a bust, but so could the guys we draft at 22 and 28.

Ask yourself right now whether you'd trade a Terence Newman or a DeMarcus Ware for Marcus Spears and Bobby Carpenter?

Here are the guys drafted at 22 and 28 over the last 10 years.

2007 - Brady Quinn (QB) and Joe Staley (OL)
2006 - Manny Lawson (LB) and Marcedes Lewis (TE)
2005 - Mark Clayton (WR) and Luis Castillo (DL)
2004 - JP Losman (QB) and Chris Gamble (DB)
2003 - Rex Grossman (QB) and Andre Woolfolk (DB)
2002 - Bryan Thomas (DL) and Jeremy Stevens (TE)
2001 - Will Allen (DB) and Derrick Gibson (DB)
2000 - Chris McIntosh (OL) and Rob Morris (LB)
1999 - Lamar King (DL) and Andy Katzenmoyer (LB)
1998 - Tebucky Jones (DB) and RW McQuarters (DB)

Now I'm not advocating that we give up the farm to move up. But if the price is right... i.e. if we could get away with the two firsts (hell I'd throw in a 3rd-4th), I think the chances of hitting are better up in the Top 5-10.

I don't think you can be afraid of moving up.

I can see your point to a certain extent. I think the fear this time around is the timing and value that we can get out of the current 2 #1s that we have this year. What I mean by that is the strength of this particular draft (CB,RB) in alignment with needs that we actually have and the availability of those positions exactly WHERE we draft. It's almost a perfect storm custom made for the Dallas Cowboys this year.

We have a need a RB. Check! There's value in the best RB class maybe in the history of the draft. CB? Check! We could end up nabbing a guy in the early 20's that could possibly be a top ten guy in ANY other weak CB class. The only real need that we have that isn't DEEP in this draft is WR. Which is why I can understand many wanting us to get the value there in the 1st (along with CB) and drafting a compliment to Barber in rounds 2 or 3 (which is conceivable with this year's depth).

If we blow our wad on one guy (presumably McFadden) then we are stuck with a tough decision of what need do we address in rounds 2-3 with a HUGE drop-off in talent in those need areas. That's IF we get McFadden for only our 2 #1s (I don't see that happening).

Your point is valid. We shouldn't be afraid to gamble and move up for a "can't miss". The problem is, I don't think anyone is convinced that McFadden is a "can't miss". I personally believe he has the highest bust factor of ANYONE in this entire draft. That's just me, though. I'll be the first to admit that I'm not any more qualified than any other poster as far as talent evaluation. It's just a gut thing. And my gut tells me McFadden isn't worth it, thus personally validating my own "fear of moving up" phenomenon.

 

[TellerMorrow34]

What about 6-10? Which is what I thought this thread was about...

6-10...hmmm...depends I suppose on what we'd have to give up to get there. At that spot what are you moving up for exactly? To make sure you get the pick of the CBs? Dmac, who seems to be what everyone wants to move up for, isn't going to be around in the 6-10 spots (At least I highly doubt he will). I can't see us moving up there to take any WR's or other RBs. So I'm guessing if we moved up that high it would be to simply ensure we got our pick of the CBs in the draft.

 

[firehawk350]

I think if you guys think (well, more succinctly, Jerry thinks) you guys are just one or two more playmakers from winning it all consistently, you need to make a bold move. I think a lot of teams (looking at the Eagles) get to a place where they can foreseeably compete and because they don't want to risk what they built and get that last real playmaker and go for it all, they end up standing pat and making small moves until the window closes.

If you are further than you think from a ring and/or you gamble wrong though, you could end up blowing the productive years of your talented players now.

 

[Future]

Great research and stuff Peplaw

 

[burmafrd]

Looking at those top 10s it is daunting to see how many busts are there. 2005 =of that entire 10 so far you only have 2 real players. On the other hand 2004 you can see that there are only 2 busts (not counting Sean taylor since he was pretty good before he got offed). But on most years you can say that about half of the top 10 picks will not be in the end worth it.
In this day of huge bonuses for top picks I frankly do not think a top 10 pick is worth it.

 

[CF74]

I think if you guys think (well, more succinctly, Jerry thinks) you guys are just one or two more playmakers from winning it all consistently, you need to make a bold move. I think a lot of teams (looking at the Eagles) get to a place where they can foreseeably compete and because they don't want to risk what they built and get that last real playmaker and go for it all, they end up standing pat and making small moves until the window closes.

If you are further than you think from a ring and/or you gamble wrong though, you could end up blowing the productive years of your talented players now.

I just don't want to win it and then fall off. We need to build quality depth.

 

[CF74]

Top 10 guys past 10 years...

2007


6 LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State Washington Commanders
7 Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma Minnesota Vikings
8 Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas Atlanta Falcons
9 Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State Miami Dolphins
10 Amobi Okoye DT Louisville Houston Texans

2006


6 Vernon Davis TE Maryland San Francisco 49ers
7 Michael Huff SS Texas Oakland Raiders
8 Donte Whitner SS Ohio State Buffalo Bills
9 Ernie Sims OLB Florida State Detroit Lions
10 Matt Leinart QB USC Arizona Cardinals

2005


6 Pacman Jones CB West Virginia Tennessee Titans
7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina Minnesota Vikings
8 Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Fla.) Arizona Cardinals
9 Carlos Rogers DB Auburn Washington Commanders
10 Mike Williams WR USC Detroit Lions

2004


6 Kellen Winslow TE Miami (Fla.) Cleveland Browns
7 Roy Williams WR Texas Detroit Lions
8 DeAngelo Hall CB Virginia Tech Atlanta Falcons
9 Reggie Williams WR Washington Jacksonville Jaguars
10 Dunta Robinson CB South Carolina Houston Texans

2003


6 Johnathan Sullivan DT Georgia New Orleans Saints
7 Byron Leftwich QB Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars
8 Jordan Gross T Utah Carolina Panthers
9 Kevin Williams DE Oklahoma State Minnesota Vikings
10 Terrell Suggs OLB Arizona State Baltimore Ravens

2002


6 Ryan Sims DT North Carolina Kansas City Chiefs
7 Bryant McKinnie T Miami (Fla.) Minnesota Vikings
8 Roy Williams FS Oklahoma Dallas Cowboys
9 John Henderson DT Tennessee Jacksonville Jaguars
10 Levi Jones T Arizona State Cincinnati Bengals

2001


6 Richard Seymour DT Georgia New England Patriots
7 Andre Carter DE California San Francisco 49ers
8 David Terrell WR Michigan Chicago Bears
9 Koren Robinson WR North Carolina State Seattle Seahawks
10 Jamal Reynolds DE Florida State Green Bay Packers

2000


6 Corey Simon DT Florida State Philadelphia Eagles
7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia Arizona Cardinals
8 Plaxico Burress WR Michigan State Pittsburgh Steelers
9 Brian Urlacher MLB New Mexico Chicago Bears
10 Travis Taylor WR Florida Baltimore Ravens

1999


6 Torry Holt WR North Carolina State St. Louis Rams
7 Champ Bailey CB Georgia Washington Commanders
8 David Boston WR Ohio State Arizona Cardinals
9 Chris Claiborne OLB USC Detroit Lions
10 Chris McAlister CB Arizona Baltimore Ravens

1998


6 Grant Wistrom DE Nebraska St. Louis Rams
7 Kyle Turley G San Diego State New Orleans Saints
8 Greg Ellis DE North Carolina Dallas Cowboys
9 Fred Taylor RB Florida Jacksonville Jaguars
10 Duane Starks CB Miami (Fla.) Baltimore Ravens

6-10 seems to be a more consistent group respectively..

 

[burmafrd]

Most of the busts do appear in the top 5, true.

 

[Rockytop6]

Sorry, when I say Top 5-10, I'm including 1-10. I guess that was unclear by the way I worded it.

Year 2,005 was a hoot.

 

[Zaxor]

So lets say we gave up everything but the sign above the door for the very first pick in the draft.... Which should have the highest % of the "can't miss factor"

according to the names you gave us

JaMarcus Russell
Mario Williams
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
David Carr
Michael Vick
Courtney Brown
Tim Couch
Peyton Manning


Blue Chip player Pro Bowler (2 out of 10)
Incomplete (3 out of 10)
Major suckage (2 out of 10)
Not even in the league anymore (3 out of 10)

Now would you rather stake your chance on a SB that the one guy you draft is gonna be that 2 out of 10 Blue Chipper or would you rather a couple of shots at finding a guy that can help realize your dream of a SB...