If you are familiar with my work, you know by now that while I believe the upcoming season will be “entertaining,” beyond that, I honestly do not have high hopes. Perhaps that is simply a defense mechanism I have developed over the course of this long Cowboys Championship-drought (22 years) to ensure I keep my expectations tempered, but there is also a healthy-helping of logic involved, as well.
On paper (another way of saying “recency bias”), the NFC looks to be an insurmountable mountain and the Cowboys NFCE peers (specifically the Giants and Commanders) seem to have significantly improved over the offseason; to say nothing of the returning Championship winning Eagles (yes, I do feel the need for a shower after having penned that). The Cowboys defense (based on previous experience) is a Sean Lee injury away from being a bullet-riddled sieve. At times, Dak Prescott has looked like a Field General, doing his best Troy Aikman impression. Late last year, however, against premier defenses and without his 2016 “Co-MVP” Zeke lining behind him, he looked an awful lot like Brandon Weeden (as in, We Done!). And let’s face it fellow fans: we are collectively placing a huge helping of faith in a 2nd round pick convert from LT to LG (Connor Williams) to be the missing cog of the Cowboys offensive line; you know…that position group that decides the ultimate trajectory of the entire team…
The Cowboys clearly have enough talent to compete with most teams in the league and a better than 8 & 8 win/loss ratio seems a safe bet for our beloved Cowboys, but the playoffs in the NFC appears to be an unforgiving gauntlet of high octane offenses and unrelenting defenses. It reminds me a bit of the early 90’s where the true Super Bowl was actually the NFC Championship…that game where NFC teams drew straws on who gets to bully the lowly AFC. That very well could be the reality this year; unless it’s the Patriots...again…the team that proves season in and season out that cheaters do in fact prosper.
Regardless of how you slice it, the Cowboys are staring down the barrel of a season that may end up being once again much ado about nothing. As I have intimated several times, I believe the Cowboys will be competitive and will likely still be in the thick of it to the very end…but in my mind, the end will come prematurely. That said, there are several “But What If’s” that could materialize and reverse the Cowboys fortunes. Below are a few realistic possibilities:
But what if...Sean Lee plays the entire season?
I wouldn’t go as far to say that Sean Lee is the end-all be-all of the Cowboys defense, but he does come closer to being that than any other player I’ve seen for that side of the ball in 30+ years of watching football (Emmitt Smith in the 90’s held that distinction for the Cowboys offense, as his 2 game hold-out in 93 proved). If Sean is in there, you don’t have to worry as much about their other talent deficiencies both on the line at 1-tech, as well as, the linebackers who figure to start next to him (Jaylon and LVE, the rookie).
Jaylon could very well be vastly improved by merit of no longer needing to wear a brace. Furthermore, being his second year, his reaction time should be much improved because at this point he has seen a good bit of what NFL-caliber offenses like to do. And with Sean Lee telling him where he needs to go once the ball snaps, Jaylon can depend more on his athleticism and just play without getting bogged-down in over-thinking.
In the lead up to the draft, I was a member of the Vita Vea (the ultimate 1-tech, with 3-tech level athleticism) fan club. However, when Sean Lee is healthy, that need is disguised because Lee typically knows where the ball is going before the ball is snapped based on the offenses alignment. When Sean Lee is not on the field, the need for that guy who can force the ball-carrier to the outside is far more apparent.
I was not a fan of Leighton Van Esch in the pre-draft process. I recognize he was an ascending talent at Boise but to me that suggest he still has a lot of ground to cover before he is NFL ready. That said, LVE is bound to struggle. And being a first round pick, the media and fans alike will destroy the kid. That is unless, of course, Sean Lee is standing next to him. Like Jaylon, LVE stands to make good on his first round selection by merely being where Sean tells him to be before and after the ball is snapped. If Sean Lee isn’t on the field, Taco-level impact could be in LVE’s immediate future…if not worse.
Having two athletes on the level of Jaylon and LVE with Lee masterminding everything they do, could very well make the Cowboys look as though they have the best linebacking core in the league. But make no mistake, without Lee, they absolutely will fall to and through the bottom of leaguewide rankings.
But what if…Dak returns to his 2016 form or better?
There is a contingency of fans and so-called experts out there calling Dak a good game-manager, suggesting that is the extent of his ability; he’ll never be more than a bus driver, they say. If you are a member of that club, for the lack of a kinder way of saying this, you have no idea what you are talking about. A player can always improve/evolve; but it is all up to them. The requisite attitude and commitment to their craft is absolutely required and Dak seemingly possesses both, considering the recent reports indicating he has been working with 3DQB to address his mechanics. Lastly, I’ll remind you that it was not until season 4 of Troy Aikman’s career that he decidedly took the next step to being the face of the Cowboys franchise. So a bit of patience is in order on the part of us fans regarding Dak.
In Dak’s first year (2016), the Cowboys coaches did a better job of keeping it simple so that all Dak really had to do was manage the game. To be clear, that was by design and not an extension of what they thought of their young signal caller. There were instances where they asked him to go win the game and he responded favorably, but for the most part, Zeke carried the proverbial torch in 16 and by extension the team to a 13 & 3 record.
Last year, it seemed as though they put too much on Dak and he quite simply wasn’t consistently up to the task, particularly towards the end of the season. It wasn’t every game, mind you; against lesser-competition, he had a tendency to shine at times. But when facing good defenses without the benefit of a run game (that likely spoiled him in his first NFL season), he noticeably struggled and regressed.
Another aspect of the game that negatively impacted Dak’s performance was the fact that opposing defenses figured out that Dak is more adept at picking teams apart in zone coverage, which led to defenses playing more man coverage (specifically, single high safety or cover-1). Because the Cowboys at the time did not have receivers adept at creating space through crisp route running and Dak has a well-known aversion to throwing interceptions, he took more sacks and ultimately threw more interceptions, when the context of the game forced him to take more chances down the field…the Cowboys receivers playing volleyball instead of football at times, certainly did nothing to improve their collective situation.
Over the course of this offseason the Cowboys have made several changes to address how they were beaten in 2017. You will note on the resume of many of the acquired receivers that route-running is a forte (particularly of the pair drafted). Second, they added route-running guru Sanjay Lal. And lastly, they traded a 6th round pick for the YAC machine Tavon Austin.
The thinking, I suspect, is this: if opposing defenses are successful in taking away Zeke on the ground and the intermediate to deep passing game, getting the ball to Tavon in the flats could give defensive coordinators fits, particularly should they be forced to adjust and take him away. Because if they do, the middle of the field will be left wide open; which should help both the passing and running game. In other words, if any one player was acquired to replace what Dez added, Tavon was it. To be clear, Tavon is not replacing Dez’s production, but he could be very useful in creating space for other skill players on the field as did Dez by merely being lined up outside.
Based on the last several seasons, the over-arching offensive game plan likely remains the same: long clock-eating drives fueled by high-percentage-of-successfully-executed passes and run plays that eventually puts them within a few yards of the opposing end zone to let Zeke finish them off. This wears down the opposing defense and keeps the oppositions offense off the field and prevents them from getting into a rhythm.
For those of you concerned about the lack of top-tier talent at the receiver position, your fears are misplaced. For everyone not named Tavon, YAC is not nearly as important as route-running and catching the ball, contested or not. And as I said before, based on their woes from last year, those two latter skills was the absolute focus of the Cowboys front office and their scouting department. If they were successful in finding players who can simply run the route, create separation and catch the ball, they are well on their way to doing exactly what they want to do.
This firmly places the ball in Dak’s court. For those of you who believe the release of Dez and retirement of Witten gives Dak a mulligan for the year, think again. This offense is now tailored to his strengths. I understand the nationwide confusion; there has been a media-parroted misconception that losing Dez/Witten represents production that cannot be replaced, but nothing could be further from the truth.
The Cowboys have crafted a weapons catalogue that closely resembles what Dak had at Mississippi State. It stands to reason that the Cowboys scheme in many ways will follow suit: more RPO (Run-Pass-Option), more Option (the variety that does not typically involve a pass option), and more options (e.g. Tavon Austin) for the opposing defense to account for beyond just Zeke’s legs. Rather than call plays that are designed to get a specific target open, Linehan will likely be focused more on calling plays that allows Dak to simply take whatever the defense allows based on pre & post snap reads.
Of course, Dak can’t do it all and Lee staying healthy would merely be maintaining a defensive status quo. To put them over the top into that championship defense level, the passrush will have to take the next step; much like the addition of Charles Haley in 92 was the acquisition that set the stage for 3 Super Bowls in 4 years.
But what if…Randy Gregory proves to be worth the wait?
I said I’d be realistic and by George I still intend to be. Randy Gregory will likely never by Charles Haley; the 94 on their jersey may be the only thing they ever share in common. For starters, Haley was a 3 down player that despite his smaller size for a DE still managed to be a terror both against the pass and the run. Admittedly, to expect that level of play from Gregory is ridiculously ambitious.
The good news is Randy doesn’t necessarily have to be Haley to still be a crucial ingredient to a championship-run Sundae. If he could simply give a little bit more on 3rd and long than Tyrone Crawford has been able to manage, that could be the straw that breaks the opposing QB’s back. For his first year back and particularly in the early going, the role I see him fulfilling is situational passrusher (3rd and long). And since he will have Demarcus Lawrence on the opposite side garnering the lion share of blocking assignment attention, Randy Gregory will more often than not have just one guy to beat. Based off his college tape, he has the essential quick first step, bend, hand-placement-technique and length to give offensive lineman a lot of problems.
The addition of Kris Richard suggest the Cowboys will not be surrendering short passes as they have done in the past (bend don’t break), allowing the opposing offenses to dink & dunk are defense to death. That should also mean the front four may have a little more time to get to the passer. The key here for Kris Richard’s approach to be successful is the front four has to get there and get there in a hurry. Because if they don’t, the Cowboys will get picked apart.
Aside from Gregory, the Cowboys have quite a few hopefuls they will be throwing at the RE position over the course of the next few months and all it takes is one guy to seize the mantle. I’m not necessarily saying I think it will happen…I am merely pointing out it could happen. And Gregory, in my not-so-humble opinion, has as good a chance as anybody to carve out a role for himself.
But What If…the Cowboys bevvy of second rounder’s pay off?
We’ve already discussed Randy Gregory at length, but for those of you who have already forgotten, Randy Gregory was regarded as a first round pick early in the scouting process before he failed a drug test at the combine in 2015. That indiscretion led to the Cowboys plucking him up late in the 2nd round and he has been a disappointment ever since (at least, off the field, not necessarily on the field). Sean Lee has also been discussed, taken in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft…and, yes, he did have a history of injury and, yes, that is why he was still available at 55th overall.
But Randy and Lee are not the only noteworthy gambles the Cowboys have made in that 2nd; the Cowboys have a bit of a reputation for taking chances on players in that infamous round. Let’s look back over the last few years, shall we:
2014 – Demarcus Lawrence – Of the gambles the Cowboys have taken over the last few years, D-Law likely doesn’t even make your list, but it should be noted that in order for the Cowboys to land him, they had to trade a 3rd rounder and their 2nd rounder to the hated Commanders. The gamble? Whomever talked Jerry & Stephen into pulling the trigger on that trade with their rival literally placed their money where their mouth is. In the pre-draft process, Tank was not on my radar. But this is why you pay scouts the big bucks, and whoever suggested this move likely had a smile painted on their face for the entirety of last season, regardless of its unfortunate end.
2015 – Randy Gregory – Nuff Said.
2016 – Jaylon Smith – I touched on him earlier, as well, but not at length (which really goes against my grain). Suffice to say, typically a team would like to see their 2nd rounder start in the first year, whereas with Jaylon on the word of the Cowboys team doctor, the Cowboys took him with the full understanding that he may never play again. The gamble of all gambles.
2017 – Chidobe Awuzie – Chidobe wasn’t necessarily a gamble, per se. But waiting for him to fall in the Cowboys lap in the second round absolutely was. Consider: The Cowboys secondary had just been gutted in Free Agency. They lost both starting outside corners and their Safety, along with role players in a matter of a few months. But rather than address this glaring hole in the first round, the Cowboys surveyed the draft landscape and smartly placed their chips on someone of note still being available later, taking Taco instead. Clearly, Taco’s story remains untold, but if our early impressions mean anything, Chidobe might just be the cream of this 2nd round crop.
2018 – Connor Williams – Like Chidobe, many may not necessarily view Connor as a gamble, but make no mistake, he could be the biggest gamble of them all, with Jaylon now at least playing. Why? Several reasons: One, like his predecessors Sean Lee and Jaylon Smith, an injury from his previous year in college is the big reason he was still available in the second round. Two, he is converting from LT to LG on a unit that is the most important to the Cowboys future success. Three…let’s face it folks…he looks nothing like your typical NFL guard.
But if he answers all those questions in a manner similar to how Zack Martin answered those questions in 2014, the Cowboys will be great for a very long time. Whether or not that equates to more playoff appearances or even championships is immaterial to me. Over the years I have learned to enjoy the journey. If the Cowboys can keep their current offensive line core (T. Smith, T. Frederick, Z. Martin, L. Collins, C. Williams) in place over the next 3 years, with Zeke toting the rock, watching football on Sunday is going to be a lot of fun, come what may in January.
That said, if the Cowboys by some crazy sequence of circumstances should see all their 2nd round picks of the last several years lights come on, a championship in the near future is not outside the realm of possibility.
But What If… Up is Down and Down is Up…again?
Parity is the secret ingredient that makes NFL football great. Unlike Basketball and Baseball where even the most casual of fans from the very beginning of the season can tell you who will be in the finals with a high degree of accuracy, in football, on Any Given Sunday any team can win and literally any team has a shot to seize greatness in January.
The ingredients to this annual phenomenon are fairly common to those of us who follow it closely: You start with a heaping cup of the Salary Cap. Add in a dash of Injuries, a sprinkle of player regression, a peck of poor organizational and coaching decisions (both the in-season and offseason variety), boil contents to reduce a roster of its top name Free Agents from the year before, then bake in an oven of what worked last year doesn’t work this year and Viola: Springs Super Bowl Contenders rise into December Pretenders who Can’t Wait for next September.
Meanwhile, for the cellar-dwellers and bottom-feeders alike, an opportunity to seize greatness subsequently presents itself. All it really takes is a relatively young team winning a few games in a row. With that feat in the rearview, a confidence settles over the team and they are afforded the ability to play loose, supplemented by the belief that the only team that can stop them is them. You could say the secret ingredient there is an organizational-wide belief in what is possible and the lack of a cap on what can be accomplished with hard work and perseverance. Year in and year out we see this phenomenon reenacted: teams that have no business even thinking about the Playoffs in June become the teams the road to the playoffs is paved through in December.
We the fans need only hope the Cowboys front office and collection of coaches have found their answer at LG with Connor Williams, that Sean Lee can stay healthy, that Dak ascends, and wait for the inevitable return to earth many of the NFC’s (if not all) current pretender-contenders will experience come September.
Thoughts?
