News: Butterfly effect on Wentz trade vs. Dak selection

[SackMaster]

I dont think people want to go back to the list of QBs and let Dak walk. One reason Dallas hit a bad streak with QBs is they were bringing in garbage. No first round top QBs. The Drew Henson baseball pitcher crap was BS. I wanted Dallas to trade Romo and draft picks to take Andrew Luck. Just like I want Dallas to do whatever it takes to get that kid Trevor Lawrence. Dak at his rookie salary is a great deal but when you have to pay him he is no longer a bargain.

While I will not disagree on the bargin basement shopping the Cowboys have done since Troy, I would stay away from QB unless I had the first overall pick AND there was a truly special guy there.

For every Andrew Luck, there are two handfuls of mediocre QBs that set teams back decades.

Let's look at Top 10 overall picks at QB since the turn of the century to 2016:

1. Jared Goff
2. Carson Wentz
3. Jamis Winston
4. Marcus Mariota
5. Blake Bortles
6. Andrew Luck
7. Robert Griffin
8. Ryan Tannenhil
9. Cam Newton
10. Jake Locker
11. Blaine Gabbert
12. Sam Bradford
13. Mathew Stafford
14. Mark Sanchez
15. Matt Ryan
16. Jamarcus Russell
17. Vince Young
18. Matt Leinart
19. Alex Smith
20. Eli Manning
21. Phillip Rivers
22. Carson Palmer
23. Byron Leftwich
24. David Carr
25. Joey Harrington
26. Mike Vick

So out of those 26 Top-10 QB deserved a second contract?

By my count, you are looking at 5-7.

• Goff, if you can trust him in big games (does not look good so far)
• Wentz, if he can stay healthy
• Luck (injury?)
• Matt Ryan at least he's been healthy, if not clutch
• Stafford, since they really did not have a better option
• Manning, opposite of Goff, terrible in RS, good in playoffs, so yes
• Rivers, same as Stafford

Then if you include the 46 total 1st Round QBs since 2000, you on add Rothlistberger, Rogers and Flacco as the only QBs with any type of success in the NFL. Otherwise expect a whole lot of Manziel, Quinn, Freeman, Weeden, and those like them.

I don't know if Trevor Lawerence is going to be any good in the NFL or not, but I would gladly put money on him, or any 1st Round QB, to not becoming a "Franchise QB" since there is a GREATER THAN 75% chance he will not.

The only reason I would not bet against a 1st Round QB is if they were NFL Legacy AND were not a complete ******.

That's not to say I'm opposed to drafting a first round QB, but I also am aware that there is a significant chance he will be no better, if not worse, than our last two real starting QBs.

As Bill said, there is no 1-800-QUARTERBACK number to call to get an NFL quality starter.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

I could see this as being a possibility. But I think that would also be highly dependent on how the draft fell.

If the cowboys had drafted Lynch in the first. Do they use a 4th on Dak, or try to wait until later? If so, is he still there?

If they used their first 4th rounder on Cook, do we really think they use their second 4th rounder on another QB?

What happens if another player they really love fell to them in the 4th and they already had a QB?

So if the cowboys did land cook or lynch. I could see many scenarios where the cowboys were still interested in drafting Dak but never pull the trigger or get beat to the punch by another team.

Those things are possible but you must remember we were picking very high in each round. If he isn't taken as a comp pick perhaps the value as the 5th pick was worth it. Too many variables like you say, personally I'm happy with the outcome.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

That may be so, but it doesn't mean someone couldn't have drafted him before Dallas picked. Same with Brady. That turned into a great draft pick for New England. but other teams had plenty of opportunities to do it.

I can't debate that as it's fact. It's always possible someone jumps you and takes your guy. Happens every draft in almost every round.

I think Dallas knew he would fall due to the off the field incidents he was in before the draft too. These guys know a ton about what other teams are looking at, doesn't mean they know everything. I agree it's very possible the Bills take Dak instead of that Ohio State (I believe that's where he was from, can't think of his name) many in here wanted him over Dak when the pick was made

 

[Hadenough]

While I will not disagree on the bargin basement shopping the Cowboys have done since Troy, I would stay away from QB unless I had the first overall pick AND there was a truly special guy there.

For every Andrew Luck, there are two handfuls of mediocre QBs that set teams back decades.

Let's look at Top 10 overall picks at QB since the turn of the century to 2016:

1. Jared Goff
2. Carson Wentz
3. Jamis Winston
4. Marcus Mariota
5. Blake Bortles
6. Andrew Luck
7. Robert Griffin
8. Ryan Tannenhil
9. Cam Newton
10. Jake Locker
11. Blaine Gabbert
12. Sam Bradford
13. Mathew Stafford
14. Mark Sanchez
15. Matt Ryan
16. Jamarcus Russell
17. Vince Young
18. Matt Leinart
19. Alex Smith
20. Eli Manning
21. Phillip Rivers
22. Carson Palmer
23. Byron Leftwich
24. David Carr
25. Joey Harrington
26. Mike Vick

So out of those 26 Top-10 QB deserved a second contract?

By my count, you are looking at 5-7.

• Goff, if you can trust him in big games (does not look good so far)
• Wentz, if he can stay healthy
• Luck (injury?)
• Matt Ryan at least he's been healthy, if not clutch
• Stafford, since they really did not have a better option
• Manning, opposite of Goff, terrible in RS, good in playoffs, so yes
• Rivers, same as Stafford

Then if you include the 46 total 1st Round QBs since 2000, you on add Rothlistberger, Rogers and Flacco as the only QBs with any type of success in the NFL. Otherwise expect a whole lot of Manziel, Quinn, Freeman, Weeden, and those like them.

I don't know if Trevor Lawerence is going to be any good in the NFL or not, but I would gladly put money on him, or any 1st Round QB, to not becoming a "Franchise QB" since there is a GREATER THAN 75% chance he will not.

The only reason I would not bet against a 1st Round QB is if they were NFL Legacy AND were not a complete ******.

That's not to say I'm opposed to drafting a first round QB, but I also am aware that there is a significant chance he will be no better, if not worse, than our last two real starting QBs.

As Bill said, there is no 1-800-QUARTERBACK number to call to get an NFL quality starter.

I get your list but im looking at a team not even attempting to draft a QB in the first! You have to realize every year teams are desperate for a QB hoping to strike gold and a lot of guys are drafted too early.

 

[G2]

You live by the gunslinger, you die by the gunslinger. It was an awesome time and those of us who appreciated it will never forget bud.

Not forgetting and obsessing about him are not the same thing. I was a huge fan, and I think I wouldn't say it was an awesome time, but entertaining and fun at times. But mostly a big let down.
I just don't suffer from Survivor's Guilt Syndrome.

 

[HungryLion]

Those things are possible but you must remember we were picking very high in each round. If he isn't taken as a comp pick perhaps the value as the 5th pick was worth it. Too many variables like you say, personally I'm happy with the outcome.

Oh I’m happy too. For sure.

 

[SackMaster]

I get your list but im looking at a team not even attempting to draft a QB in the first! You have to realize every year teams are desperate for a QB hoping to strike gold and a lot of guys are drafted too early.

Don't take my word for it:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ating-quarterbacks-means-2018-draft-prospects

I'm glad you think a 1st Round QB is an "automatic upgrade" over our current QB, but as the old saying goes, the grass is not always greener on the other side.

See Dallas' rumored interest in "1st Round QBs" Lynch and Manziel.

 

[Melonfeud]

While not exactly pertinent to this thread topic,it is kinda' running parallel, while CBS sports radio mentioned last night something about Nick Folez has been given a leave of absence for an indeterminate time from whomevers franchise he's landed with, due to personal reasons,,,

 

[jazzcat22]

While not exactly pertinent to this thread topic,it is kinda' running parallel, while CBS sports radio mentioned last night something about Nick Folez has been given a leave of absence for an indeterminate time from whomevers franchise he's landed with, due to personal reasons,,,

He went to Jacksonville.

 

[Melonfeud]

He went to Jacksonville.

COPY&THANKS MY MAN!

 

[Hadenough]

Don't take my word for it:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...ating-quarterbacks-means-2018-draft-prospects

I'm glad you think a 1st Round QB is an "automatic upgrade" over our current QB, but as the old saying goes, the grass is not always greener on the other side.

See Dallas' rumored interest in "1st Round QBs" Lynch and Manziel.

Dont worry you wont have to worry about Dallas trying to replace Dak with Lawrence or any other potential elite QB. Jerry is too cheap to package a deal to move up and draft pedigree QB that I would target.
Hahaha Manziel and Lynch were trash.
Dallas was desperate. Notice how Kansas City went out and got a QB to replace Alex Smith. They got smart and realized they were never gonna win a SB with Smith.

 

[SackMaster]

Dont worry you wont have to worry about Dallas trying to replace Dak with Lawrence or any other potential elite QB. Jerry is too cheap to package a deal to move up and draft pedigree QB that I would target.
Hahaha Manziel and Lynch were trash.
Dallas was desperate. Notice how Kansas City went out and got a QB to replace Alex Smith. They got smart and realized they were never gonna win a SB with Smith.

Ah, OK. I'm seeing the pattern. If the QB is not a QB that YOU would have drafted, the team was desperate and/or the QB was drafted too early.

Me on the other hand couldn't care less who plays on the Cowboys or not. If it is Lawrence at QB, I will root for him as much as I have rooted for Dak for the simple fact he plays on the team I root for. If Zeke isn't given a second contract in Dallas, time to move on. If we draft a WR in the 1st Round next year because Amari would not resign, so be it. If Jeff Heath is our starting SS for the next 8 years, hopefully he plays well.

See, for me, there are much more important things to worry about than trying to be "right all the time" on a decision I have absolutely no say in, whatsoever.

If you think a QB you like is a sure fire, 100%, can't miss, will dominate the league, MVP-level Elite QB, then all I have to ask is why are you wasting your time on a forum and not out there making a name for yourself by putting your choices on the record for all to see, evaluate and/or scrutinize? I'm not a fan of Akoye, but at least he puts his opinion out there, even if I don't always agree. Hell, if you are somewhat successful, you may be the GM of the Raiders some day ala Mike Mayock.

Then you can show us idiots what an "Elite QB" is all about.

Good luck with that man!

 

[Hadenough]

Ah, OK. I'm seeing the pattern. If the QB is not a QB that YOU would have drafted, the team was desperate and/or the QB was drafted too early.

Me on the other hand couldn't care less who plays on the Cowboys or not. If it is Lawrence at QB, I will root for him as much as I have rooted for Dak for the simple fact he plays on the team I root for. If Zeke isn't given a second contract in Dallas, time to move on. If we draft a WR in the 1st Round next year because Amari would not resign, so be it. If Jeff Heath is our starting SS for the next 8 years, hopefully he plays well.

See, for me, there are much more important things to worry about than trying to be "right all the time" on a decision I have absolutely no say in, whatsoever.

If you think a QB you like is a sure fire, 100%, can't miss, will dominate the league, MVP-level Elite QB, then all I have to ask is why are you wasting your time on a forum and not out there making a name for yourself by putting your choices on the record for all to see, evaluate and/or scrutinize? I'm not a fan of Akoye, but at least he puts his opinion out there, even if I don't always agree. Hell, if you are somewhat successful, you may be the GM of the Raiders some day ala Mike Mayock.

Then you can show us idiots what an "Elite QB" is all about.

Good luck with that man!

Im going to be cheering on every player for the Cowboys on game day too. And yes that includes Dak! I just think dont think Dak is worth elite money and would look for a better pure passer. Ive taken care of that by getting into $$$$ fantasy football. Its great because regardless of how the Cowboys do on game day Im still busy cheering for many other players across the league.

 

[SackMaster]

Im going to be cheering on every player for the Cowboys on game day too. And yes that includes Dak! I just think dont think Dak is worth elite money and would look for a better pure passer. Ive taken care of that by getting into $$$$ fantasy football. Its great because regardless of how the Cowboys do on game day Im still busy cheering for many other players across the league.

Well that's good to know you will be cheering for Dak as long as he's a Cowboy.

As for Fantasy Football, that IMO, is one of the worse things to ever happen to real "on the field" football. Instead of valuing things that a player does that helps teams win, too much importance has been placed on how many yards or how many TDs so-so player had.

Which makes me think, what would the fan reactions be when it comes to Troy Aikman if he played during the FF craze?

Since it is impossible to compare Dak and Troy directly, we can see how they ranked in the league during their time.

For Dak's 3 years, he has averaged out to the 17th (16.666..) ranked in passing yards and 14th (14.3333...) in passing TDs each year.

For all 12 years, Aikman was averaged out to 15th (15.08333...) in yards and 18th (17.8333...) in passing TDs.

Take the 8 years he played 14+ games, it goes to 11th (11.25) in yards and 15th (15.125) in TDs.

Even in his Prime 6 years from 1992 to 1997, he goes to 10th (10.0) in yards, and still only 14th (14.1666...) in TDs.

But if you take away 1992, the only year he ranked above Top-8 any either stat, and that year he was 4th in yards and 3rd in TDs, his average during the other 5 prime years drops to 11th (11.2) in yards and 16th (16.4) in TDs.

While I am fully aware that Dak will likely never be an "Elite Passer", he is much more Troy Aikman than he is given credit for. And what I mean by that is he does what he is asked to do to win games while not making the killer mistake to cost the team a game.

Not saying they are exclusively mutual, but it was easy to find an "Elite Passer" who is also elite at being clutch, then the league would look a lot different than it does now.

So if I could only have one trait, I much rather have a Troy or Dak who is clutch in big moments, than have a guy who throws for a ton of stats but very often comes up short in critical moments.

<Now preparing for the apocalypse since I put Troy Aikman and Dak Prescott together in some kind of comparison>

 

[BigD_95]

If you think about it, since Troy Aikman retired, the best Dallas Cowboys QBs have come via "luck" than "planning and preparation".

Love him or hate him, Romo is arguably the best QB since Troy and was an undrafted free agent.
Love him or hate him, Dak is easily the best QB since Romo, and he was at least the Cowboys 4th option of draft-able QBs.

Every other "planned" option, has been less than successful.

And some people are inching to go back to the "Cunningham / Wright / Leaf / Stoerner / Hutchinson / Carter / Testaverde / Henson / Bledsoe / Johnson / Kitna / McGee / Orton / Weeden / Cassel / Moore" days by letting Dak walk.

And to think, the list of starting QBs above, as terrible as it is, was WAY more successful than Lynch and Cooks were in the NFL.

in fairness to those QB's you mention none of them had a team as well built as Dak has had these last 3 years. I'm on the fence on signing Dak. I rather wait one more season and see how he pans out this coming year cause there are no excuses. I mean if you are talking about paying him a massive contract why not wait? If he is willing to take less than sign him.

 

[Hadenough]

Well that's good to know you will be cheering for Dak as long as he's a Cowboy.

As for Fantasy Football, that IMO, is one of the worse things to ever happen to real "on the field" football. Instead of valuing things that a player does that helps teams win, too much importance has been placed on how many yards or how many TDs so-so player had.

Which makes me think, what would the fan reactions be when it comes to Troy Aikman if he played during the FF craze?

Since it is impossible to compare Dak and Troy directly, we can see how they ranked in the league during their time.

For Dak's 3 years, he has averaged out to the 17th (16.666..) ranked in passing yards and 14th (14.3333...) in passing TDs each year.

For all 12 years, Aikman was averaged out to 15th (15.08333...) in yards and 18th (17.8333...) in passing TDs.

Take the 8 years he played 14+ games, it goes to 11th (11.25) in yards and 15th (15.125) in TDs.

Even in his Prime 6 years from 1992 to 1997, he goes to 10th (10.0) in yards, and still only 14th (14.1666...) in TDs.

But if you take away 1992, the only year he ranked above Top-8 any either stat, and that year he was 4th in yards and 3rd in TDs, his average during the other 5 prime years drops to 11th (11.2) in yards and 16th (16.4) in TDs.

While I am fully aware that Dak will likely never be an "Elite Passer", he is much more Troy Aikman than he is given credit for. And what I mean by that is he does what he is asked to do to win games while not making the killer mistake to cost the team a game.

Not saying they are exclusively mutual, but it was easy to find an "Elite Passer" who is also elite at being clutch, then the league would look a lot different than it does now.

So if I could only have one trait, I much rather have a Troy or Dak who is clutch in big moments, than have a guy who throws for a ton of stats but very often comes up short in critical moments.

<Now preparing for the apocalypse since I put Troy Aikman and Dak Prescott together in some kind of comparison>

Troy was the perfect fit for that offense because not all QBs can hand the ball off a lot and then get asked to throw a strike on 3rd down to keep the chains moving.
Fantasy football is interesting. You would be surprised how much you learn about other players and teams. I used to hate it until I tried it.

 

[SackMaster]

in fairness to those QB's you mention none of them had a team as well built as Dak has had these last 3 years. I'm on the fence on signing Dak. I rather wait one more season and see how he pans out this coming year cause there are no excuses. I mean if you are talking about paying him a massive contract why not wait? If he is willing to take less than sign him.

I really don't buy that this is a great team despite Dak.

Just the season before, the team went 1-11 without Romo.

I'm fully aware Zeke also joined the team the same year as Dak, and he is a special player.

But if you compare the improvement in running vs passing from 2015 to 2016, I think there is easily a case could be made that the passing game improved more.

We went from 16 passing TDs and 22 Ints, even with Romo playing a quarter of the season, to 25 TDs and 6 Ints the following year.

Dak may not have the most impressive overall stats, but without him taking care of the ball, this team is not nearly as good as some think.

Sure, theoretically we can be better with a more talented QB. But we KNOW we can be a lot worse if the QB does not take care of the ball as much as Dak has. Like 5-11 bad, and that may be generous.

 

[SackMaster]

Troy was the perfect fit for that offense because not all QBs can hand the ball off a lot and then get asked to throw a strike on 3rd down to keep the chains moving.
Fantasy football is interesting. You would be surprised how much you learn about other players and teams. I used to hate it until I tried it.

True, Troy was good at making great throws despite not being allowed to get in a rhythm often. But that was the offense.

And you do not need fantasy football to learn about other teams or players. In fact, I would say it is possibly the opposite as FF wants players to think of stats more than situational football.

In FF, if a QB throws for 400+ yards and 0 Ints, he played great, right? Yeah, he did. But did the team win?

Well, in 2018 when the QB threw for 400+ yards, had at least 2 passing TDs and had 0 Interceptions, those teams went 5-6.

Stats are cool to look at, and that is the part of FF I would enjoy, but what does it tell you about players and teams? I would argue very little, especially if you are not watching those teams / players play.

 

[Hadenough]

Actually if a QB throws for 400 yds and no INTs he didnt play well. Because he gets 1 point for every 25 yds so he would end up with 16 points.
If a Qb throws for 250 and 2 tds and maybe has 30 yds rushing he would get 10 points for the 250 he gets 12 points for the 2 TDs and he gets 1 point for every 10 yds he rushes so he would actually have a total of 25 points. But regardless of how your QB plays you must get good contributions from other players like RBs, WRs, TEs and defenses. Having a good solid roster across the board is the most important in FF.
Its easy to make the first couple of picks in a fantasy draft but its the back end of the roster and the moves you make during the season that wins it for you.

 

[BigD_95]

I really don't buy that this is a great team despite Dak.

Just the season before, the team went 1-11 without Romo.

I'm fully aware Zeke also joined the team the same year as Dak, and he is a special player.

But if you compare the improvement in running vs passing from 2015 to 2016, I think there is easily a case could be made that the passing game improved more.

We went from 16 passing TDs and 22 Ints, even with Romo playing a quarter of the season, to 25 TDs and 6 Ints the following year.

Dak may not have the most impressive overall stats, but without him taking care of the ball, this team is not nearly as good as some think.

Sure, theoretically we can be better with a more talented QB. But we KNOW we can be a lot worse if the QB does not take care of the ball as much as Dak has. Like 5-11 bad, and that may be generous.

I somewhat agree. I don't think everything has been awful with Dak. He seems to be a great leader - plays better at the end of games. I just think he misses too much. I know he only played 3 years and seeing the field should improve.

My other big issue is he has a hard time hitting the deep throws. Misses way too many open receivers on long throws. That is what he should be working on the most this off-season. Its keeping Dallas in too many close games missing on those chances. He starts hitting them consistently and teams stop stacking the box. Will open up the offense. I'm just not sure he will ever be capable of that though. Teams will always play us that Dallas will have to win on Daks arm.

My question is, if we sign Dak to a massive contract then we are all in and have no hope to improve the QB play. I like to see Dak one more season before Dallas goes all in. There is no risk if he wants top dollar anyways to wait another season.