"Can't Miss!"

[Motorola]

I don't see why you're having a problem understanding. You're contradicting yourself with the statement Lawrence is a "great talent", but he "hasn't taken a snap in the NFL". That's how the NFL system works with evaluating and drafting and eventually playing a rookie. QB. It's the most important position on a team. It is a big process, but that's how it works.

Wrong again. If Lawrence is as advertised, he will be the savior. And how can you properly evaluate the Cowboy's OL when the line has been devastated by injurie?. C'mon man.[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

You missed his point. His point wasn't that Lawrence wouldn't help "if he is as advertised", his point was that many times players aren't as advertised.

Each winter, every college football player is assessed. a' Potential To Succeed In The NFL Value' by various entities that cover the sport (team scouts, media that covers the sport, etc.). That Value is based primarily on:
1) College career play & accomplishments
2) Level of competition
3) Physical ability at their position(s)
4) Flaws and limitations in their game
4) Injury history
These four factors are enhanced or tempered by the player's life \endeavors \ character away from the sport.
Based on the last two seasons (this truncated, COVID-19 riddled 2020 is mostly a wash -although players will continually be evaluated when games do go on)---
Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has been universally determined by the American Football World to have the best Value- and thus will probably be the No. 1 pick
in the 2021NFL draft. But - just like the player who will be picked last in the 7th round- (Mr. Irrelevant) and the couple of hundred guys that are signed as UDFAs-.
ALL OF THEM HAVEN'T TAKEN A SNAP IN THE NFL









.

 

[Kaiser]

Agreed, except to say for all we know Lawrence could be the savior, but as you indicate, it's far from a certainty.

Moving on from a known player - one who is clearly a very good NFL QB - in favor of a draft pick is certainly not the no brainer some make it out to be. Sure there is a chance a team could get the next Pat Mahomes, but that's very unlikely. Odds are much greater of getting the next Marcus Mariota or Jake Locker, or at best a Wentz or Goff, which doesn't move the team forward other than gives the team more money to use on free agents because they aren't paying a veteran QB. Of course a team could pay the veteran QB and use the draft pick for another difference making player at another position, or even trade back for multiple picks. Who's to say which is better?

Great post, I don't think Dallas will have to make the decision on drafting Lawrence and the options at their pick will be guys that roughly have the upside of becoming that Dak is now but with the uncertainty of how they will develop. You can get a guy like Jameis Winston who has all the physical tools in the world but doesn't make NFL-caliber decisions on the field. You can also get a Carson Wentz who can make every throw scouts ask for, but doesn't have the leadership ability.

IMO Lawrence is a moot point and all the other college QBs aren't close to moving me off the "bird in the hand" position.

 

[Hardline]

Theres not a single college player that's taken an NFL snap.
I guess we shouldn't draft any of them.

 

[Londonboy]

Life is an ocean of uncertainty.
The tides of fate can cast Us upon unexpected shores.
The winds of chance can blow Us in unanticipated directions.
All We can do is chart the most promising looking course.

 

[OmerV]

Each winter, every college football player is assessed a 'Potential To Succeed In The NFL Value' by various entities that cover the sport (team scouts, media that covers the sport, etc.). That Value is based primarily on:
1) College career play & accomplishments
2) Level of competition
3) Physical ability at their position(s)
4) Flaws and limitations in their game
4) Injury history
These four factors are enhanced or tempered by the player's life \endeavors \ character away from the sport.
Based on the last two seasons (this truncated, COVID-19 riddled 2020 is mostly a wash -although players will continually be evaluated when games do go on)---
Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has been universally determined by the American Football World to have the best Value- and thus will probably be the No. 1 pick
in the 2021NFL draft. But - just like the player who will be picked last in the 7th round- (Mr. Irrelevant) and the couple of hundred guys that are signed as UDFAs-.
ALL OF THEM HAVEN'T TAKEN A SNAP IN THE NFL

I don't understand what point you think this makes. Nobody claimed Lawrence isn't considered a top prospect or that there isn't a ranking of the top prospects. All your post does is indicate something that isn't in dispute.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Don't quite understand the 'shallowness" of many - While there's no doubt Lawrence is a great talent, the fact remains that he hasn't taken a snap in the NFL and .. the landscape is littered with "Can't Miss" players who, well ... missed. This kid is not the savior and certainly not without an OL that can't keep him or any other QB off the carpet.

This can be said for any QB, even Dak.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Yea I made a similar statement in another thread. I know fans will be fans and not think logically but the owners, GM and coaches have to be held to a higher standard. There are a couple of can't miss prospects at QB in the coming up draft class but none of them are proven in the NFL. We have a proven QB that is at a franchise QB level. Its on the powers that be to understand that.

Is he a proven QB? I mean, what exactly has been proven yet?

 

[CowboyFrog]

It's funny but if you go back in the line of "can't miss" college QB's, there is a certain value in seeing which looked good on teams that were loaded and teams that were good but not great. The landscape is littered with "can't miss" QB's that played on power house teams and figured out "Maybe the other 11 first round picks on offense" made him look great....Case in point...didnt Lawrence back up come in and not miss a beat on a very loaded offensive team against a top rated defense...without going to google can you name lawrence backup? just sayin....

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Life is an ocean of uncertainty.
The tides of fate can cast Us upon unexpected shores.
The winds of chance can blow Us in unanticipated directions.
All We can do is chart the most promising looking course.

Life is uncertain London, thats a true statement. Here's a question for ya, what are the chances I can get a decent cone of Fish and Chips, here in the States? That, to me, is the more pressing topic!

 

[Londonboy]

Life is uncertain London, thats a true statement. Here's a question for ya, what are the chances I can get a decent cone of Fish and Chips, here in the States? That, to me, is the more pressing topic!

Probably about the same as finding a decent beer.

 

[ItzKelz]

Is he a proven QB? I mean, what exactly has been proven yet?

 

[Kaiser]

Life is an ocean of uncertainty.
The tides of fate can cast Us upon unexpected shores.
The winds of chance can blow Us in unanticipated directions.
All We can do is chart the most promising looking course.

You will be called a Daktard in less than two pages of this thread.....

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Probably about the same as finding a decent beer.

See, this is the problem. It's not the Virus, it's these types of issues that are going to end up killing me London.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

It's really not but if that's how you see it, that's OK with me.

Truth is, we haven't won a thing in 25 years. Dak hasn't proven anything and neither has anybody else associated with the team in that period of time. That's just how I see it.

 

[OmerV]

Theres not a single college player that's taken an NFL snap.
I guess we shouldn't draft any of them.

That wasn't anyone's point. The point was only that the uncertainty of prospects has to be weighed against the quality of the proven player that would be replaced.

Put another way, if the proven player has "proven" to be mediocre or weak, there isn't much risk in letting him go and drafting a college prospect to replace him because the odds of improving are high, and even if the prospect doesn't work out as expected there likely won't be much of a drop off if any. But if the proven player has proven to be very good there is much more risk in letting him go in favor of the prospect because the odds of significant improvement are lower, and if the prospect doesn't work out the drop of can be significant and seriously damage the team.

For me, I never said the team shouldn't consider drafting Lawrence if they have the chance. I just said it's not the no brainer decision some make it to be. I think that's the point others were making as well.

 

[KingintheNorth]

Fan Boys: "Build through the draft!" Free agency is no good!"

Also Fan Boys: "College players haven't taken a snap in the NFL, can't count on them!"


Pick a side already.

 

[ShortRound]

Don't worry Jerry and Stephen will do what's right for the team. We'll be fine.

 

[garyo1954]

I don't understand what point you think this makes. Nobody claimed Lawrence isn't considered a top prospect or that there isn't a ranking of the top prospects. All your post does is indicate something that isn't in dispute.

I think his point is he can't count.

"4) Flaws and limitations in their game
4) Injury history
These four factors are enhanced or tempered by the player's life \endeavors \ character away from the sport."

As much as I like Lawrence, all this information leads to overconfidence in a draft choice. Teams tend to be a bandwagon lot. They watch a player and find reasons to pick him instead of being wary. They become overconfident seeing only the positives they were looking for.

The NFL draft involves two tasks, predicting the future and bidding competitively. And those two tasks often lead to overvaluing a pick because a team wants a certain player, or overpaying for a given pick since you want a certain player.

Often all the information you gather on a player is reason to pick him, and sometimes you end up with "buyers remorse."

 

[Typhus]

Yea I made a similar statement in another thread. I know fans will be fans and not think logically but the owners, GM and coaches have to be held to a higher standard. There are a couple of can't miss prospects at QB in the coming up draft class but none of them are proven in the NFL. We have a proven QB that is at a franchise QB level. Its on the powers that be to understand that.

Well to be honest its fans like you that empower Jerry Jones to just provide a sustainable product.
Keep buying those hats brother

 

[OmerV]

Fan Boys: "Build through the draft!" Free agency is no good!"

Also Fan Boys: "College players haven't taken a snap in the NFL, can't count on them!"


Pick a side already.

It doesn't take picking a side. There is value in both the draft and free agency. The key is finding the best balance a team can. Obviously the more a team can build in the draft the better because contracts are cheaper, and the players are younger with more years to play, but that always has to be supplemented with free agency. No team succeeds only with one way or the other.