Can't wait to pay Zeke

[Outlaw Heroes]

It is ..... so yes

Did you even read my post

Gurley got 21m guaranteed

Not true. He was guaranteed $21M at signing by way of signing bonus.

His salary for 2019 ($5M) will be guaranteed on March 15. There is ZERO chance he gets cut before March 15 (he'll have a cap charge if he's with the team of $9.2M and a dead cap hit of $21.8M if he's cut, so the cap economics mandate keeping him for 2019), which takes him to $26M in guarantees (already surpassing your proposed $25M in guarantees for Zeke).

In 2020, there is a cap savings that could be realized by cutting him before March 15, because his cap charge for 2020 will be $17.25M and the dead cap hit if he is cut would be $12.6M. But if he isn't cut (he'll be 26 years old and if his 2019 season is anything like his last two years he probably won't be cut) another $13.05M (in the form of a $7.55M roster bonus and his $5.5M salary) will be guaranteed on March 15, 2020.

So in all probability, Gurley is going to see at least $39.05M of guaranteed cash. I don't need to go beyond 2020 because that number already dwarfs the $25M you propose to guarantee for Zeke.

Zeke's people aren't stupid. They won't just be looking at the amount guaranteed at signing. They'll be looking at all the guaranteed cash he is CERTAIN to realize (and Gurley is CERTAIN to realize another $5M in guarantees in 2 weeks) and the guaranteed cash he is LIKELY to realize (which includes the $13.05M Gurley is likely to have guaranteed March 15, 2020).

I respect your work generally, but the contract you propose for Zeke simply isn't realistic in the circumstances.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

It is always smart business

If you want to play juvenile semantic games then piss off.... I don't have any interest in them

I have no idea what you're saying here. Is it that you were using the term 'business' interchangeably with 'cap management'? Even if that's the case, it's a proposition that needs to be established by argument. All you've done is make a bald assertion.

In any event, there's no need to get your back up.

 

[Nightman]

Not true. He was guaranteed $21M at signing by way of signing bonus.

His salary for 2019 ($5M) will be guaranteed on March 15. There is ZERO chance he gets cut before March 15 (he'll have a cap charge if he's with the team of $9.2M and a dead cap hit of $21.8M if he's cut, so the cap economics mandate keeping him for 2019), which takes him to $26M in guarantees (already surpassing your proposed $25M in guarantees for Zeke).

In 2020, there is a cap savings that could be realized by cutting him before March 15, because his cap charge for 2020 will be $17.25M and the dead cap hit if he is cut would be $12.6M. But if he isn't cut (he'll be 26 years old and if his 2019 season is anything like his last two years he probably won't be cut) another $13.05M (in the form of a $7.55M roster bonus and his $5.5M salary) will be guaranteed on March 15, 2020.

So in all probability, Gurley is going to see at least $39.05M of guaranteed cash. I don't need to go beyond 2020 because that number already dwarfs the $25M you propose to guarantee for Zeke.

Zeke's people aren't stupid. They won't just be looking at the amount guaranteed at signing. They'll be looking at all the guaranteed cash he is CERTAIN to realize (and Gurley is CERTAIN to realize another $5M in guarantees in 2 weeks) and the guaranteed cash he is LIKELY to realize (which includes the $13.05M Gurley is likely to have guaranteed March 15, 2020).

I respect your work generally, but the contract you propose for Zeke simply isn't realistic in the circumstances.

Man you are thick.... you just proved my own case

Gurley only got 21.9m fully guaranteed at signing..... a 21m signing bonus and his 900k base salary

THAT IS IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The rest of the guarantees came in Years 2, 3 and 4......same thing I proposed for Zeke

Around 25m at first and then more Years 2, 3 and 4 ...... and that was just some broad strokes you are trying to take a fine toothed comb too...... I hope that makes you feel superior

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Man you are thick.... you just proved my own case

Gurley only got 21.9m fully guaranteed at signing..... a 21m signing bonus and his 900k base salary

THAT IS IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The rest of the guarantees came in Years 2, 3 and 4......same thing I proposed for Zeke

Around 25m at first and then more Years 2, 3 and 4 ...... and that was just some broad strokes you are trying to take a fine toothed comb too...... I hope that makes you feel superior

You're embarrassing yourself and calling into question your right to call yourself a 'capologist'. But carry on.

 

[Nightman]

You're embarrassing yourself and calling into question your right to call yourself a 'capologist'. But carry on.

Whatever.... you can't even read

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Whatever.... you can't even read

For the record, this is what you said:

...there will be no guaranteed money after year 3

Zeke gets 25m in gtds ...

You did NOT say (until the analysis forced you to adjust your position):

Around 25m at first and then more Years 2, 3 and 4

In fact, as the quote above indicates, you explicitly said no guaranteed money after year 3. In addition, "25m in gtds" (note the plural) implies total guarantees over the first 3 years, not $25M on signing.

Your vitriol has nothing to do with my ability to read and everything to do with your ability to admit that what you proposed is unrealistic (causing you to shift your argument rather than admit the error of your ways).

Thanks for coming out.

 

[Nightman]

For the record, this is what you said:



You did NOT say (until the analysis forced you to adjust your position):



In fact, as the quote above indicates, you explicitly said no guaranteed money after year 3. In addition, "25m in gtds" (note the plural) implies total guarantees over the first 3 years, not $25M on signing.

Your vitriol has nothing to do with my ability to read and everything to do with your ability to admit that what you proposed is unrealistic (causing you to shift your argument rather than admit the error of your ways).

Thanks for coming out.

Obsess much.......go away

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Obsess much.......go away

Let's just shake hands and get over it, dude. It's not that big a deal.

 

[Nightman]

Look at the Fully Guaranteed column for Gurley .....it says 21.9m

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

Look at the Fully Guaranteed column for Gurley .....it says 21.9m

Too simplistic. I've shown why. Gurley is CERTAIN to receive at least is $26.9M in guarantees because there is ZERO chance he gets cut in the next 2 weeks (because of the cap economics). If you want to look at the first 3 years of the deal, which is the period over which you proposed to give Zeke guarantees (and, realistically, Gurley is likely to get his 2020 roster bonus and salary), the number will go to $39.95M in guarantees.

Zeke's people won't be relying on your chart as some sort of authority. They'll be doing an analysis much like the one I did above.

Anyway, I'm done arguing about it. Happy to go away as you propose. There shouldn't be hard feelings about this and I hope there aren't any. It's just discussion on a message board.

 

[Nightman]

Too simplistic. I've shown why. Gurley is CERTAIN to receive at least is $26.9M in guarantees because there is ZERO chance he gets cut in the next 2 weeks (because of the cap economics). If you want to look at the first 3 years of the deal, which is the period over which you proposed to give Zeke guarantees (and, realistically, Gurley is likely to get his 2020 roster bonus and salary), the number will go to $39.95M in guarantees.

Zeke's people won't be relying on your chart as some sort of authority. They'll be doing an analysis much like the one I did above.

Anyway, I'm done arguing about it. Happy to go away as you propose. There shouldn't be hard feelings about this and I hope there aren't any. It's just discussion on a message board.

way to move the goalposts when defeated......

LA could June 1st cut Gurley right now and save 5m on the cap this and 4.5m next year.... hardly painful

 

[WillieBeamen]

I'm tired of "Zeke is a generational talent" nonsense to be honest. He isn't even the best running back in the division.

And while I agree he's on a hall of fame trajectory that has as much or more to do with the team he was signed to as his own talent.

Is Zeke league leader in rushing if he's on the Jets and on a team that's constantly being blown out? Say what you will about pass blocking but we've been a do ant run blocking unit for years.

Frankly, he is not indespensable. He plays a position that is fungible. We've shown when he is out we run as effectively (actually more so when you look at the admittedly small sample size numbers). We know rushing efficiency is not correlated with winning. And to top it all off we know he's more likely than not to face injury right when he's on a monster contract. Also speaking of contracts he never even represented savings on his rookie deal like... EVERY OTHER POSITION...because he came in as a top 5 paid rb due to the in the toilet rb salary market (which is in the toilet be ause most organizations understand that rbs are cheap assets).

Why exactly does this board feel the need to go against all common sense for this player and position? Historical because of Smith's legacy? Is it because of fantasy football (no I'm serious... Cooper and Zeke have overwhelming support for big extensions while the more important Lawrence does not)?

Look neither of us have any influence over if (when) Zeke is signed. But we don't have to be idiots and close our eyes to self evident truths either.

I'd trade Zeke right now for a 3rd and the Cowboys would be better off for it.

The back thats better than him in this division? What pick was he taken???

 

[WillieBeamen]

Lol this site is something else


A thread complaining about re-signing our best player by far to a new contract?

Get this goofy crap outta here. Mods, why isnt this in the rant zone?

You want proof as to why you play Zeke? Re-watch the games in 2017 where he didnt play.


Thats why you re-sign zeke

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

way to move the goalposts when defeated......

LA could June 1st cut Gurley right now and save 5m on the cap this and 4.5m next year.... hardly painful

What are you talking about? They'll suffer a dead cap hit of $21.8M if they cut him now.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

If they designate him a June 1st cut that will spread the hit over this year and next, so $10.9M in dead cap money each year. His 2019 cap hit will be $9.2M if he's with the team on March 15 (see the link above again). So cutting him now and designating him a June 1st cut will result in a net cap loss of $1.7M this year and a further $10.9M next year (total net cap loss of $12.6M).

You're flailing. There's no need. Just take the L and move on. It's not that big a deal. You did a broad stroke analysis that proved to be unrealistic on inspection (because the devil is always in the details). It happens.

 

[Sydla]

Lol this site is something else


A thread complaining about re-signing our best player by far to a new contract?

Get this goofy crap outta here. Mods, why isnt this in the rant zone?

You want proof as to why you play Zeke? Re-watch the games in 2017 where he didnt play.


Thats why you re-sign zeke

It’s debatable that he’s our best player by far. Martin is our best player IMO.

There’s nothing goofy about concerns over paying a TB a huge contract.

 

[Corso]

It is always smart business

If you want to play juvenile semantic games then piss off.... I don't have any interest in them

You're a big poopy-head! Put me on ignore!
poopy-head...


Sucks that I agree with you.

 

[Nightman]

What are you talking about? They'll suffer a dead cap hit of $21.8M if they cut him now.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

If they designate him a June 1st cut that will spread the hit over this year and next, so $10.9M in dead cap money each year. His 2019 cap hit will be $9.2M if he's with the team on March 15 (see the link above again). So cutting him now and designating him a June 1st cut will result in a net cap loss of $1.7M this year and a further $10.9M next year (total net cap loss of $12.6M).

You're flailing. There's no need. Just take the L and move on. It's not that big a deal. You did a broad stroke analysis that proved to be unrealistic on inspection (because the devil is always in the details). It happens.

LOL using Spotrac as evidence

They are already including his 5m base salary for 2019 as guaranteed and Dead Money... it doesn't guarantee until the 15th.... that is why I said TODAY

June 1st cut him today and they save 5m...........9.2m-4.2m = 5m......next year 17.2m-12.6m = 4.6m

On the 15th another 18m guarantees so they have a big decision to make

 

[Gaede]

I get your point but Zeke is probably the most durable back I can remember in the last 15 years.

His bowling ball build is usually the type of build that keeps a player at his position on the field.

Gurley has that long lean frame that constantly has nagging injuries at that position.

Zeke reminds me of Emmitt in this way.

He somehow does not put his body at risk, despite the physicality

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

LOL using Spotrac as evidence

They are already including his 5m base salary for 2019 as guaranteed and Dead Money... it doesn't guarantee until the 15th.... that is why I said TODAY

June 1st cut him today and they save 5m...........9.2m-4.2m = 5m......next year 17.2m-12.6m = 4.6m

On the 15th another 18m guarantees so they have a big decision to make

You’re right that they’ve included his $5M salary for 2019 in the dead money.

But it doesn’t change the analysis directionally. If he’s on the roster March 15 his cap hit will be $9.2M (comprised of the $5M base + $4.2 of prorated signing bonus) If he’s cut today they won’t incur that cap hit but the full remaining 4 years of prorated signing bonus, or $16.8M, accelerates onto the cap.

So cutting him today would result in a net cap loss of $7.6M (16.8 - 9.2) They can designate him a June 1 cut, such that $8.4M (half of the remaining prorated signing bonus of $16.8M) accelerates onto the cap this year and another $8.4M accelerates onto the cap next year.

That means they would have a cap savings this year of $0.8M ($8.4M against the cap as opposed to $9.2M if he were kept) but a net cap loss next year of $8.4M. Combined the net cap loss over the two years is still $7.6M. It’s just spread out differently.

The cap economics still dictate that he WILL NOT be cut before March 15. They’d be wasting $7.6M of cap space, however they choose to spread it.

Next year’s cap hit and dead money are irrelevant if he’s cut today. The contract ceases immediately, the remaining prorated signing bonus accelerates immediately (though it can be spread over two years by designating it a June 1 cut) and you back out this year’s cap hit (which you don’t incur since you cut him) in order to determine the net cap hit. Again, in this case it would be a net cap loss of $7.6M.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

The fact the debate has shifted to....we can just cut him early shows the foolishness of drafting Zeke and the foolishness that would be signing him.

And that's before you remember that we can/have/will again run effectively without Zeke.