Cautionary Tale about Need vs BPA

[xwalker]

The Cowboys passed on LeSean McCoy in the 2009 2nd round.

They had McCoy rated as a 1st round pick.

They had pick #51.

McCoy was drafted at #53.

Felix Jones peak yards per season after that was 800 in 2010.

Marion Barber had 975 yards in 2009 then averaged 400 for 2 seasons before being out of the NFL.

The best player from that Cowboys draft was TE John Phillips. He has averaged 4.3 starts per year and has primarily been a #2 blocking TE.

McCoy has been a 10 year starter with 14,222 total yards and 84 TDs.

Only 13 RBs in the HoF have more rushing yards than McCoy and McCoy is still playing. He only needs 630 yards to pass OJ Simpson in rushing yards. He is already ahead of Simpson in TDs and well ahead of him in receiving stats.

Only 3 of the top 12 rushers in the HoF have better receiving stats than McCoy.

Summary:
The Cowboys passed on a HoF player and instead got next to nothing because they didn't "need" a RB that year.

Even if they had picked better players, McCoy was the best player after the 1st round that year and one of the best in the entire draft.

The Cowboys had a 1st round grade on him but passed on him at #51.

 

[CF74]

Shady likely would have been Tony Dorsett 2.0 here in Dallas had we taken him..

 

[Alexander]

This is one reason why I don't get the freak out about possibly using a 2nd or 3rd on a back.

Everyone thought Barber was a stud. And he was done in a year or two after his monster season.

Do I want to use a 2nd on a back, absolutely not.

But if you can demonstrate that the player has a chance to be a special back capable of starting if need be, I can be convinced.

 

[xwalker]

This is one reason why I don't get the freak out about possibly using a 2nd or 3rd on a back.

Everyone thought Barber was a stud. And he was done in a year or two after his monster season.

Do I want to use a 2nd on a back, absolutely not.

But if you can demonstrate that the player has a chance to be a special back capable of starting if need be, I can be convinced.

Agree.

Also, the Cowboys are a run focused offense (or they have been the past few years). That makes backup RB more important than it would be for many other teams that are more pass focused (Packers, etc..).

 

[Melonfeud]

The Cowboys passed on LeSean McCoy in the 2009 2nd round.

They had McCoy rated as a 1st round pick.

They had pick #51.

McCoy was drafted at #53.

Felix Jones peak yards per season after that was 800 in 2010.

Marion Barber had 975 yards in 2009 then averaged 400 for 2 seasons before being out of the NFL.

The best player from that Cowboys draft was TE John Phillips. He has averaged 4.3 starts per year and has primarily been a #2 blocking TE.

McCoy has been a 10 year starter with 14,222 total yards and 84 TDs.

Only 13 RBs in the HoF have more rushing yards than McCoy and McCoy is still playing. He only needs 630 yards to pass OJ Simpson in rushing yards. He is already ahead of Simpson in TDs and well ahead of him in receiving stats.

Only 3 of the top 12 rushers in the HoF have better receiving stats than McCoy.

Summary:
The Cowboys passed on a HoF player and instead got next to nothing because they didn't "need" a RB that year.

Even if they had picked better players, McCoy was the best player after the 1st round that year and one of the best in the entire draft.

The Cowboys had a 1st round grade on him but passed on him at #51.

Ya,well that golden B-B of perfect hindsight is,,,er,,,well, it's G.D. golden ,after the fact, as ya know about that age old adage of " you pay's yer' money& takes yer chances" rings thru to every swinging club- wielding manhammer fellow( er,,,& hooter enticing fellowetts)of the ranks of legion FANDOM'S past life, at some prior crossroads of travel,,,

 

[xwalker]

Ya,well that golden B-B of perfect hindsight is,,,er,,,well, it's G.D. golden ,after the fact, as ya know about that age old adage of " you pay's yer' money& takes yer chances" rings thru to every swinging club- wielding manhammer fellow( er,,,& hooter enticing fellowetts)of the ranks of legion FANDOM'S past life, at some prior crossroads of travel,,,

I don't have your way with words.

I'll have to quote others:

Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
.....1948 Speech
.....Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
.....George Santayana (1863-1952)

Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it.
.....Edmund Burke (1729-1797)

 

[Hardline]

The Cowboys passed on LeSean McCoy in the 2009 2nd round.

They had McCoy rated as a 1st round pick.

They had pick #51.

McCoy was drafted at #53.

Felix Jones peak yards per season after that was 800 in 2010.

Marion Barber had 975 yards in 2009 then averaged 400 for 2 seasons before being out of the NFL.

The best player from that Cowboys draft was TE John Phillips. He has averaged 4.3 starts per year and has primarily been a #2 blocking TE.

McCoy has been a 10 year starter with 14,222 total yards and 84 TDs.

Only 13 RBs in the HoF have more rushing yards than McCoy and McCoy is still playing. He only needs 630 yards to pass OJ Simpson in rushing yards. He is already ahead of Simpson in TDs and well ahead of him in receiving stats.

Only 3 of the top 12 rushers in the HoF have better receiving stats than McCoy.

Summary:
The Cowboys passed on a HoF player and instead got next to nothing because they didn't "need" a RB that year.

Even if they had picked better players, McCoy was the best player after the 1st round that year and one of the best in the entire draft.

The Cowboys had a 1st round grade on him but passed on him at #51.

Exactly why you draft BPA.
There is no legitimate argument against it.

 

[JBell]

The Cowboys took Travis Frederick in the first round in 2013 because they had a big need on the OL. They had a second round grade on him.

There were five players with first round grades still available when the Cowboys were on the clock: Tyler Eifert, Sharif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, Cordarrelle, Patterson, and Bjoern Werner that year, but opted to go with Frederick instead.

I’d say that worked out pretty well. BPA purists are going to need to give me more examples besides McCoy to convince me that the Cowboys should go BPA every time.

McClay stated that their draft philosophy is a combination of need and BPA and it’s working. They’ve been among the best at drafting in recent years.

 

[Melonfeud]

I don't have your way with words.

I'll have to quote others:

Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
.....1948 Speech
.....Sir Winston Churchill (1874-1965)

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
.....George Santayana (1863-1952)

Those who don't know history are destined to repeat it.
.....Edmund Burke (1729-1797)

"While hardly spirit instilling & uplifting",,, yet! I'm of the compelled nature of granting you a B+ 1/4 pint of James B. Beam bourbon w/2 camel non filter ciggies,along with a single 'strike anywhere wooden match' fer' yer' implied spunk of retorted reply

 

[Hardline]

The Cowboys took Travis Frederick in the first round in 2013 because they had a big need on the OL. They had a second round grade on him.

There were four players with first round grades still available when the Cowboys were on the clock: Tyler Eifert, Sharif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Bjoern Werner that year, but opted to go with Frederick instead.

I’d say that worked out pretty well. BPA purists are going to need to give me more examples besides McCoy to convince me that the Cowboys should go BPA every time.

McClay stated that their draft philosophy is a combination of need and BPA and it’s working. They’ve been among the best at drafting in recent years.

They traded down to get Frederick
If they didn't trade down they most likely take one of the players you mentioned .
They took Frederick in a lower draft spot.
And there were some people like me that knew Frederick had first round value and loved the pick.

 

[JBell]

They traded down to get Frederick
If they didn't trade down they most likely take one of the players you mentioned .
They took Frederick in a lower draft spot.
And there were some people like me that knew Frederick had first round value and loved the pick.

Doesn’t matter if they traded down. Taking a second round player with a first round pick is the opposite of BPA. Especially when you passed up five guys you did have first round grades on. And it worked.

Strictly going BPA without factoring in positional needs for this year and the future isn’t a smart way to draft.

 

[Hardline]

Doesn’t matter if they traded down. Taking a second round player with a first round pick is the opposite of BPA. Especially when you passed up five guys you did have first round grades on. And it worked.

Strictly going BPA without factoring in positional needs for this year and the future isn’t a smart way to draft.

Travis Frederick is a pro bowl center and the pick was justified Draft slots absolutely make a difference.
You never approch the draft for need. That's how you reach for a need and draft with one year in mind. You aren't drafting a player for one year.
Not taking BPA is the fastest way to fail at drafting

 

[JBell]

Travis Frederick is a pro bowl center and the pick was justified Draft slots absolutely make a difference.
You never approch the draft for need. That's how you reach for a need and draft with one year in mind. You aren't drafting a player for one year.
Not taking BPA is the fastest way to fail at drafting

Trading down in the first and passing on 5 first round grade players to draft a player you had a second round grade on is not BPA. What part of that are you not understanding?

Nowhere in my posts did I say we should draft for need. If you read above, I mentioned McClay said their draft philosophy is a combination of BPA AND Need, and I agree with it. The results speak for themselves.

 

[xwalker]

The Cowboys took Travis Frederick in the first round in 2013 because they had a big need on the OL. They had a second round grade on him.

There were five players with first round grades still available when the Cowboys were on the clock: Tyler Eifert, Sharif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, Cordarrelle, Patterson, and Bjoern Werner that year, but opted to go with Frederick instead.

I’d say that worked out pretty well. BPA purists are going to need to give me more examples besides McCoy to convince me that the Cowboys should go BPA every time.

McClay stated that their draft philosophy is a combination of need and BPA and it’s working. They’ve been among the best at drafting in recent years.

That would be interesting, except that it's wrong.

In the 2013 draft:

Cowboys had Pick 18.

Floyd was their top rated player available at 18.

Marinelli said Floyd was not worth it.
(Tom Ciskowski failed to communicate with the coaches when putting the draft board together.)

Cowboys traded down and then had Pick 31.

When they traded down, they had 5 players remaining with 1st round grades and Frederick with a borderline 1st/2nd round grade.

They were confident that 1 of the 6 players would be available at 31.

Actual Draft:
Tyler Eifert Pick: 21
Sharif Floyd Pick: 23
Xavier Rhodes Pick: 25
Bjoern Werner Pick: 24
C. Patterson Pick: 29
T. Frederick Pick: 31

All of the 1st round rated players were gone by 31.

They didn't NOT draft Frederick over the others because of need and they did NOT avoid drafting higher rated players because of a lack of need at those positions.

 

[Hardline]

Trading down in the first and passing on 5 first round grade players to draft a player you had a second round grade on is not BPA. What part of that are you not understanding?

Nowhere in my posts did I say we should draft for need. If you read above, I mentioned McClay said their draft philosophy is a combination of BPA AND Need, and I agree with it. The results speak for themselves.

Travis Frederick was a first round talent also. Most people didn't realize how good he was and was all in on taking Floyd.
We got a pro bowl center with the 31st pick in the draft.
I guess we could've taken LeVeon Bell or Kelce over Frederick but I like the way it worked out

 

[jnday]

Doesn’t matter if they traded down. Taking a second round player with a first round pick is the opposite of BPA. Especially when you passed up five guys you did have first round grades on. And it worked.

Strictly going BPA without factoring in positional needs for this year and the future isn’t a smart way to draft.

Dallas only has around 15 players rated with first round grades each year. If they are picking late in the first, the players with first round grades are gone, so Dallas and most all other pro teams are drafting players in the late first that has second round grades.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Trading down in the first and passing on 5 first round grade players to draft a player you had a second round grade on is not BPA. What part of that are you not understanding?

Nowhere in my posts did I say we should draft for need. If you read above, I mentioned McClay said their draft philosophy is a combination of BPA AND Need, and I agree with it. The results speak for themselves.

Of course what they did was consistent with a BPA approach (I'm not sure they actually took the top player on their board at 31; I suspect they got a good result from a bad process, but that's beside the point).

BPA is absolutely not "take the best guy on the board when your pick comes up."

BPA is: EITHER (1) take the best player regardless of position, (2) trade down if you think the BPA will still be there later or that the talent gap between the current BPA and the BPA where you pick is smaller than the value of the pick(s) you gain, or (3) trade up using the same reasoning (talent gap between players vs. value of picks you trade).

BPA does not preclude trading. It does preclude reaching. If you want examples of that, you only have to look at their endless search for a pass rusher that led to Shonte Carver and Ebenezer Ekuban, among others.

Now, trading down comes with risk. The Cowboys may have made the trade figuring one of their first-round guys would be there at 31, in which case they lost that gamble. That doesn't mean the gamble isn't justifiable, though. You have to be willing to take risks.

 

[Sydla]

Travis Frederick is a pro bowl center and the pick was justified Draft slots absolutely make a difference.
You never approch the draft for need. That's how you reach for a need and draft with one year in mind. You aren't drafting a player for one year.
Not taking BPA is the fastest way to fail at drafting

None of this changes the fact in Frederick’s year they went need over BPA.

The Cowboys have employed need/BPA drafting. Hard to argue with some of their results.

 

[JBell]

That would be interesting, except that it's wrong.

In the 2013 draft:

Cowboys had Pick 18.

Floyd was their top rated player available at 18.

Marinelli said Floyd was not worth it.
(Tom Ciskowski failed to communicate with the coaches when putting the draft board together.)

Cowboys traded down and then had Pick 31.

When they traded down, they had 5 players remaining with 1st round grades and Frederick with a borderline 1st/2nd round grade.

They were confident that 1 of the 6 players would be available at 31.

Actual Draft:
Tyler Eifert Pick: 21
Sharif Floyd Pick: 23
Xavier Rhodes Pick: 25
Bjoern Werner Pick: 24
C. Patterson Pick: 29
T. Frederick Pick: 31

All of the 1st round rated players were gone by 31.

They didn't NOT draft Frederick over the others because of need and they did NOT avoid drafting higher rated players because of a lack of need at those positions.

The entire premise of BPA is to get the best player/value/talent available. They had a second round grade on Frederick that year, not "borderline 1st/2nd."

They also had a 2nd round grade on Connor Cook in 2016. They opted to drafted Maliek Collins in the 3rd round over Cook. Also took Tapper in the 4th over him. Then Cook got picked by the Raiders, and we "settled" for Dak with the second 4th rounder.

Any BPA purists upset that we didn't take Connor Cook?

 

[JBell]

Travis Frederick was a first round talent also. Most people didn't realize how good he was and was all in on taking Floyd.
We got a pro bowl center with the 31st pick in the draft.
I guess we could've taken LeVeon Bell or Kelce over Frederick but I like the way it worked out

You're clearly using hindsight here. They had a second round grade on Frederick.

Dallas only has around 15 players rated with first round grades each year. If they are picking late in the first, the players with first round grades are gone, so Dallas and most all other pro teams are drafting players in the late first that has second round grades.

They had 18 first round grades that year.

Of course what they did was consistent with a BPA approach (I'm not sure they actually took the top player on their board at 31; I suspect they got a good result from a bad process, but that's beside the point).

BPA is absolutely not "take the best guy on the board when your pick comes up."

BPA is: EITHER (1) take the best player regardless of position, (2) trade down if you think the BPA will still be there later or that the talent gap between the current BPA and the BPA where you pick is smaller than the value of the pick(s) you gain, or (3) trade up using the same reasoning (talent gap between players vs. value of picks you trade).

BPA does not preclude trading. It does preclude reaching. If you want examples of that, you only have to look at their endless search for a pass rusher that led to Shonte Carver and Ebenezer Ekuban, among others.

Now, trading down comes with risk. The Cowboys may have made the trade figuring one of their first-round guys would be there at 31, in which case they lost that gamble. That doesn't mean the gamble isn't justifiable, though. You have to be willing to take risks.

We have different definitions of BPA. To me it's follow your board and take the best player available regardless of position.

BPA to me is not trading 13 spots back, when there are five players worthy of your pick in the 1st round, and settling for a second round graded player.

People can disagree with me on the Frederick example, but they've passed up their highest rated player available in drafts before to account for positional needs - I gave another example with Connor Cook. It's not something they do a lot or something the front office deserves criticism over with how much success they've had in recent years.