Chances of finding a starting RB in the draft

[gimmesix]

There seems to be an assumption that we will be able to find a good-enough running back at some point in this draft, so I thought I would take a look at what past drafts show us about first-year success.

Running backs taken in the first three rounds are listed with number of starts/yards per carry/carries-total yards rushing/TDs for their first year.

2014 - 5 of 8 backs averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 2 of those had no starts; 3 of 8 started at least 8 games; 1 of 8 rushed for 1,000 yards; 1 of 8 scored more than 4 rushing TDs
(2-54) Bishop Sankey (9/3.7/152-569/2)
(2-55) Jeremy Hill (8/5.1/221-1,124/9)
(2-57) Carlos Hyde (0/4.0/83-333/4)
(3-69) Charles Sims (0/2.8/66-185/1)
(3-75) Tre Mason (9/4.3/179-765/4)
(3-94) Terrance West (6/3.9/171-673/4)
(3-96) Jerick McKinnon (6/4.8/113-538/0)
(3-97) Dri Archer (0/4.0/10-40/0)

2013 - 4 of 6 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 3 of those had no starts; 2 of 6 started at least 8 games; 1 of 6 rushed for 1,000 yards; 3 of 6 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(2-37) Giovani Bernard (0/4.1/170-695/5)
(2-48) Le'Veon Bell (13/3.5/244-860/8)
(2-58) Montee Ball (0/4.7/120-559/4)
(2-61) Eddie Lacy (15/4.1/284-1,178/11)
(2-62) Christine Michael (0/4.4/18-79/0)
(3-96) Knile Davis (1/3.5/70-242/4)

2012 - 5 of 7 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 4 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 2 of 7 started at least 8 games; 1 of 7 rushed for 1,000 yards; 2 of 7 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(1-3) Trent Richardson (15/3.6/267-950/11)
(1-31) Doug Martin (16/4.6/319-1,454/11)
(1-32) David Wilson (2/5.0/71-358/4)
(2-50) Isaiah Pead (1/5.4/10-54/0)
(2-61) LaMichael James (0/4.6/27-125/0)
(2-67) Ronnie Hillman (0/3.9/85-330/1)
(3-84) Bernard Pierce (0/4.9/108-532/1)

2011 - 2 of 8 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 1 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 1 of 7 started at least 8 games; 0 of 8 rushed for 1,000 yards; 2 of 8 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(1-28) Mark Ingram (4/3.9/122-474/5)
(2-38) Ryan Williams (3/2.8/58-164/0)
(2-56) Shane Vereen (0/3.8/15-57/1)
(2-57) Mikel Leshoure (14/3.7/215-798/9)
(2-62) Daniel Thomas (2/3.5/165-581/0)
(3-71) DeMarco Murray (7/5.5/164-897/2)
(3-73) Stevan Ridley (2/5.1/87-441/1)
(3-96) Alex Green (0/3.7/3-11/0)

So over a four-year span, 16 of 28 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 10 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 8 of 28 started at least 8 games; 3 of 28 rushed for 1,000 yards; 8 of 28 had more than 4 rushing TDs in their first years.

 

[Beast_from_East]

So 3 RBs out of 28 broke a 1000 yards their rookie year.................So we are basically looking at a little over 10% chance our RB we draft will even break 1000 yds.

So that leaves McFadden to fill the void if the rookie cant get it done

Man, I sure hope letting Murray walk doesn't blow up in our face ( I am talking about from a production standpoint).

 

[Wood]

I share your concern. Dallas needs to get little lucky here in draft. As much as I don't want to give up too much for Peterson...he is probably safest play for Cowboys.

 

[muck4doo]

So 3 RBs out of 28 broke a 1000 yards their rookie year.................So we are basically looking at a little over 10% chance our RB we draft will even break 1000 yds.

So that leaves McFadden to fill the void if the rookie cant get it done

Man, I sure hope letting Murray walk doesn't blow up in our face ( I am talking about from a production standpoint).

Most teams do RB by committee now. There aren't a whole lot of Bells, Lacys, or Murrays out there. Gordon and Gurley are that good though. The committee thing doesn't help RB's. Then you also have dumb luck injuries like what happened to Wilson.

 

[Spectre]

There seems to be an assumption that we will be able to find a good-enough running back at some point in this draft, so I thought I would take a look at what past drafts show us about first-year success.

Running backs taken in the first three rounds are listed with number of starts/yards per carry/carries-total yards rushing/TDs for their first year.

2014 - 5 of 8 backs averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 2 of those had no starts; 3 of 8 started at least 8 games; 1 of 8 rushed for 1,000 yards; 1 of 8 scored more than 4 rushing TDs
(2-54) Bishop Sankey (9/3.7/152-569/2)
(2-55) Jeremy Hill (8/5.1/221-1,124/9)
(2-57) Carlos Hyde (0/4.0/83-333/4)
(3-69) Charles Sims (0/2.8/66-185/1)
(3-75) Tre Mason (9/4.3/179-765/4)
(3-94) Terrance West (6/3.9/171-673/4)
(3-96) Jerick McKinnon (6/4.8/113-538/0)
(3-97) Dri Archer (0/4.0/10-40/0)

2013 - 4 of 6 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 3 of those had no starts; 2 of 6 started at least 8 games; 1 of 6 rushed for 1,000 yards; 3 of 6 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(2-37) Giovani Bernard (0/4.1/170-695/5)
(2-48) Le'Veon Bell (13/3.5/244-860/8)
(2-58) Montee Ball (0/4.7/120-559/4)
(2-61) Eddie Lacy (15/4.1/284-1,178/11)
(2-62) Christine Michael (0/4.4/18-79/0)
(3-96) Knile Davis (1/3.5/70-242/4)

2012 - 5 of 7 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 4 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 2 of 7 started at least 8 games; 1 of 7 rushed for 1,000 yards; 2 of 7 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(1-3) Trent Richardson (15/3.6/267-950/11)
(1-31) Doug Martin (16/4.6/319-1,454/11)
(1-32) David Wilson (2/5.0/71-358/4)
(2-50) Isaiah Pead (1/5.4/10-54/0)
(2-61) LaMichael James (0/4.6/27-125/0)
(2-67) Ronnie Hillman (0/3.9/85-330/1)
(3-84) Bernard Pierce (0/4.9/108-532/1)

2011 - 2 of 8 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 1 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 1 of 7 started at least 8 games; 0 of 8 rushed for 1,000 yards; 2 of 8 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(1-28) Mark Ingram (4/3.9/122-474/5)
(2-38) Ryan Williams (3/2.8/58-164/0)
(2-56) Shane Vereen (0/3.8/15-57/1)
(2-57) Mikel Leshoure (14/3.7/215-798/9)
(2-62) Daniel Thomas (2/3.5/165-581/0)
(3-71) DeMarco Murray (7/5.5/164-897/2)
(3-73) Stevan Ridley (2/5.1/87-441/1)
(3-96) Alex Green (0/3.7/3-11/0)

So over a four-year span, 16 of 28 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 10 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 8 of 28 started at least 8 games; 3 of 28 rushed for 1,000 yards; 8 of 28 had more than 4 rushing TDs in their first years.

I tried to make this point a while back. Whomever we draft is likely going to serve a committee role, especially given our team's situation to win now and qb protection needs.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Most teams do RB by committee now. There aren't a whole lot of Bells, Lacys, or Murrays out there. Gordon and Gurley are that good though. The committee thing doesn't help RB's. Then you also have dumb luck injuries like what happened to Wilson.

I am just not a fan of the committee thing, I want a bellcow.

I guess growing up watching Emmitt every Sunday spoiled me.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

I am just not a fan of the committee thing, I want a bellcow.

I guess growing up watching Emmitt every Sunday spoiled me.

Belcow back's want starting RB salary's. Not happenin' in today's market. Jerry won't pay that salary.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Belcow back's want starting RB salary's. Not happenin' in today's market. Jerry won't pay that salary.

I think that is what Stephen might have been alluding to when he said the draft is how you have to build your team in the salary cap era.

That is why 1st round picks are so valuable now days, especially with the 5th year option.

 

[Idgit]

I don't really care if we get a rookie RB who rushes for 1,000 yards or not. Just let's keep the ~4.2 ypc as a team and keep running the ball a fair amount of the time to stay in advantageous passing situations.

And then fix the defense.

The nice thing about those lists, though, is there are some decent RBs taken at or around that 60th pick level each season. Hyde, Lacey, Murray, Ridley. I could live with a player like any of them. There are a lot of guys on that list who'd do just fine on this team behind this line with the situation we'll have available to them.

 

[SilverStarCowboy]

So two RBs would be 20%?

 

[darthseinfeld]

When your HB's are Darren McFadden and Joe Randle, your chances of finding a starting HB in the draft are very very very good

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

So the draft is uncertain. That doesn't mean that a Snyderesque sign the big name aging free agent becomes the better risk.

I should start another thread detailing the longevity of HoF RB aged 30 because he is so special and cannot be compared to mere mortal NFL RBs as if this discussion wasn't hashed out in the thread about he who shall not be named.

A whole lot of those guys got over 750 yards and 5 or more TDs behind inferior offensive lines, quarterbacks, and receivers, and with coaching staffs that were not dedicated to the run. All three running backs are active every game day. 750 yards is an acceptable contribution to a rotation. Get three of those 'scrubs' and you have our rushing total from last year.

 

[Hoofbite]

While many backs outside the top guys are not drafted to be starters, plenty could have been.

If Dallas takes a back with a high pick, that player will get the carries that most don't.

 

[AdamJT13]

So 3 RBs out of 28 broke a 1000 yards their rookie year.................So we are basically looking at a little over 10% chance our RB we draft will even break 1000 yds.

You want a 1,000-yard rusher? Just give one guy 17 carries per game. The last 105 guys to get at least 270 carries in a season ALL rushed for more than 1,000 yards.

The last running back with 270 carries who didn't? Troy Hambrick in 2003. He had 275 carries for 972 yards.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

lol defenses keying on Hambrick.

 

[waving monkey]

up theard COMMENT ON KEEPING 4.2 YPC is key

 

[lostar2009]

I knew the concept of finding a rb anywhere in the draft wasn't logical. Guys like Murray and McCoy are special backs. Our last 1k runner was Julius Jones until Murray came into the scene and before that we burnt a first on Felix Jones but he never came close to a 1k season.

 

[jnday]

I am just not a fan of the committee thing, I want a bellcow.

I guess growing up watching Emmitt every Sunday spoiled me.

I agree. The RB by committee does not let a RB get in the flow of the game and most of the great RBs have said that they need to get in a rhythm to run at their best. I understand the OP's point , but there has not been a RB with the potential that Gurley has. If Dallas can't get Gurley, they might as well get AP.

 

[CATCH17]

I looked at the first 8 games of our schedule and my first thought was we better get a stud at RB.


I'd bet on McFadden for 8 games though. Just not 16.

 

[ABQcowboyJR]

I don't really care if we get a rookie RB who rushes for 1,000 yards or not. Just let's keep the ~4.2 ypc as a team and keep running the ball a fair amount of the time to stay in advantageous passing situations.

And then fix the defense.

The nice thing about those lists, though, is there are some decent RBs taken at or around that 60th pick level each season. Hyde, Lacey, Murray, Ridley. I could live with a player like any of them. There are a lot of guys on that list who'd do just fine on this team behind this line with the situation we'll have available to them.

I agree with you. However, I have serious concerns about the coaching staffs willingness to stay committed to the run without a bellcow back. I'd like to think we can mix in 2-3 guys every week and run the ball like we did last season, but I'll believe it when I see it.