Chances of finding a starting RB in the draft

Idgit

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I agree with you. However, I have serious concerns about the coaching staffs willingness to stay committed to the run without a bellcow back. I'd like to think we can mix in 2-3 guys every week and run the ball like we did last season, but I'll believe it when I see it.

If we're not successful with it, it'll be an issue. But I don't believe losing Murray means we won't be successful running the ball. I think all our backs will be legitimate options. The biggest issue will be that who's in the game will limit our hand a bit, but with Romo and out receiving threats, we'll still have plenty of options to hurt a defense.
 

gimmesix

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I don't really care if we get a rookie RB who rushes for 1,000 yards or not. Just let's keep the ~4.2 ypc as a team and keep running the ball a fair amount of the time to stay in advantageous passing situations.

And then fix the defense.

The nice thing about those lists, though, is there are some decent RBs taken at or around that 60th pick level each season. Hyde, Lacey, Murray, Ridley. I could live with a player like any of them. There are a lot of guys on that list who'd do just fine on this team behind this line with the situation we'll have available to them.

The only concern is selecting one of them instead of one of the poor ones. It's a tough thing to do. Some of the backs drafted in the first three rounds this year are going to fail. Hopefully, if that's the route we go, our scouts are able to identify which ones won't.

I've tried before and haven't done any better. The year, we selected Jones, I identified Ray Rice and Tashard Choice as two of my top backs because of their ability and vision to run between the tackles. I was 50-50 on that one.
 

gimmesix

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While many backs outside the top guys are not drafted to be starters, plenty could have been.

If Dallas takes a back with a high pick, that player will get the carries that most don't.

Trouble is a lot of backs' YPC goes down when they become starters because teams start focusing on them, so they actually do worse with more carries because they can't fluff up their average with one or two decent runs.
 

tyke1doe

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I don't really care if we get a rookie RB who rushes for 1,000 yards or not. Just let's keep the ~4.2 ypc as a team and keep running the ball a fair amount of the time to stay in advantageous passing situations.

And then fix the defense.

The nice thing about those lists, though, is there are some decent RBs taken at or around that 60th pick level each season. Hyde, Lacey, Murray, Ridley. I could live with a player like any of them. There are a lot of guys on that list who'd do just fine on this team behind this line with the situation we'll have available to them.

I think Hyde would have done better if he had started from Day 1. If the Niners are smart, I'd feed him early and often. He can take the pounding.
 

tyke1doe

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The only concern is selecting one of them instead of one of the poor ones. It's a tough thing to do. Some of the backs drafted in the first three rounds this year are going to fail. Hopefully, if that's the route we go, our scouts are able to identify which ones won't.

I've tried before and haven't done any better. The year, we selected Jones, I identified Ray Rice and Tashard Choice as two of my top backs because of their ability and vision to run between the tackles. I was 50-50 on that one.

I think you were 100 percent on that one. Choice did well when he had the opportunity. I just think he fell out of favor (Marion Barber emerged as the preferred back and he fell out of the rotation with Barber and Felix getting most of the touches) and because he didn't have great speed, he bounced around but never was able to find his place as a featured back. I think if the Cowboys had committed to him, he would have been similar to Ray Rice. Some guys only get one shot at the starting position. If they don't seize the opportunity - for whatever reason - then they fall out of favor and fall down the depth chart and never get that opportunity again. That's what I think happened to Tashard Choice. So, for what it's worth, I think your analysis was, actually, spot on.
 

DFWJC

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So 3 RBs out of 28 broke a 1000 yards their rookie year.................So we are basically looking at a little over 10% chance our RB we draft will even break 1000 yds.

So that leaves McFadden to fill the void if the rookie cant get it done:facepalm:

Man, I sure hope letting Murray walk doesn't blow up in our face ( I am talking about from a production standpoint).

I guess if you rate all rounds equal and all draft classes equal, you might have a point.
I think most of these guys were brought into share the load their first year.

Anyway, with the high rate of breakdown and the overall violence of the position (basically a car wreck very 3rd carry or so) most GMs do not want to rely on one bell cow back. It's putting too many cards on the table for a position that has a high injury rate.
I think, to some degree, this is why we let Murray walk at that price.
 

DFWJC

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I looked at the first 8 games of our schedule and my first thought was we better get a stud at RB.


I'd bet on McFadden for 8 games though. Just not 16.

Good point on DMC. He may be fine early on, but we need to hope the rookie is coming around by mid season at the latest.
 

xwalker

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There seems to be an assumption that we will be able to find a good-enough running back at some point in this draft, so I thought I would take a look at what past drafts show us about first-year success.

Running backs taken in the first three rounds are listed with number of starts/yards per carry/carries-total yards rushing/TDs for their first year.

2014 - 5 of 8 backs averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 2 of those had no starts; 3 of 8 started at least 8 games; 1 of 8 rushed for 1,000 yards; 1 of 8 scored more than 4 rushing TDs
(2-54) Bishop Sankey (9/3.7/152-569/2)
(2-55) Jeremy Hill (8/5.1/221-1,124/9)
(2-57) Carlos Hyde (0/4.0/83-333/4)
(3-69) Charles Sims (0/2.8/66-185/1)
(3-75) Tre Mason (9/4.3/179-765/4)
(3-94) Terrance West (6/3.9/171-673/4)
(3-96) Jerick McKinnon (6/4.8/113-538/0)
(3-97) Dri Archer (0/4.0/10-40/0)

2013 - 4 of 6 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 3 of those had no starts; 2 of 6 started at least 8 games; 1 of 6 rushed for 1,000 yards; 3 of 6 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(2-37) Giovani Bernard (0/4.1/170-695/5)
(2-48) Le'Veon Bell (13/3.5/244-860/8)
(2-58) Montee Ball (0/4.7/120-559/4)
(2-61) Eddie Lacy (15/4.1/284-1,178/11)
(2-62) Christine Michael (0/4.4/18-79/0)
(3-96) Knile Davis (1/3.5/70-242/4)

2012 - 5 of 7 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 4 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 2 of 7 started at least 8 games; 1 of 7 rushed for 1,000 yards; 2 of 7 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(1-3) Trent Richardson (15/3.6/267-950/11)
(1-31) Doug Martin (16/4.6/319-1,454/11)
(1-32) David Wilson (2/5.0/71-358/4)
(2-50) Isaiah Pead (1/5.4/10-54/0)
(2-61) LaMichael James (0/4.6/27-125/0)
(2-67) Ronnie Hillman (0/3.9/85-330/1)
(3-84) Bernard Pierce (0/4.9/108-532/1)

2011 - 2 of 8 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 1 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 1 of 7 started at least 8 games; 0 of 8 rushed for 1,000 yards; 2 of 8 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(1-28) Mark Ingram (4/3.9/122-474/5)
(2-38) Ryan Williams (3/2.8/58-164/0)
(2-56) Shane Vereen (0/3.8/15-57/1)
(2-57) Mikel Leshoure (14/3.7/215-798/9)
(2-62) Daniel Thomas (2/3.5/165-581/0)
(3-71) DeMarco Murray (7/5.5/164-897/2)
(3-73) Stevan Ridley (2/5.1/87-441/1)
(3-96) Alex Green (0/3.7/3-11/0)

So over a four-year span, 16 of 28 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 10 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 8 of 28 started at least 8 games; 3 of 28 rushed for 1,000 yards; 8 of 28 had more than 4 rushing TDs in their first years.

Nice work.

I put it in a spreadsheet so I could see it better.

It would be interesting to look at following years also. Leshoure had 14 starts but then only played 3 games since.

rb-rookie-stats.jpg
 

gimmesix

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Nice work.

I put it in a spreadsheet so I could see it better.

It would be interesting to look at following years also. Leshoure had 14 starts but then only played 3 games since.

rb-rookie-stats.jpg

I was going to do it then decided it was too much work. I know that some of them improved, like Bell, while some of them fell off after that first year, like pretty much all of them in the 2012 class.

Martin went from 4.6 to 3.6 and 3.7. Wilson dropped from 5.0 to 3.3. Pead fell from 5.4 to 3.0. James actually went up from 4.8 to 4.9 on fewer carries but only played in one game the next year before going to Miami and playing in two. One of the constants seems to be injuries or a lack of playing time.

Pierce fell from 4.9 to 2.9 with more carries then averaged 3.9 the next year. Richardson's numbers got worse and he's on to his third team now. Hillman went down in carries and averaged 4.0 his second year then averaged 4.1 with his most carries (106) the next year.

So while 5 of 7 averaged 4.0 or better as rookies, only 2 of 7 did it the following year and only 1 of 7 the year after that.

It's not only tough to hit on a good rookie runner, it's very difficult to hit on one who can keep it up, which makes me think that DeMarco Murray is really done a disservice by some around here based on what he gave us for four years. One of those don't know what you've got till it's gone situations.

I certainly hope that's not the case and we actually are able to upgrade the position, but it doesn't look like it's going to be easy to do.
 

Fla Cowpoke

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I think we are in danger of not considering the situation each player was going into and I think we are also not considering the fact that a certain number of the guys were never drafted to be bellcows....many were drafted as change of pace or specialists.

Tennessee drafted Sankey, but they had no QB, mediocre OL and few other weapons. I think they intended on RBC with Shonn Greene and Sankey,

Cincinnatti brought Hill in, they had a good offensive situation and also looked for RBC with Bernard as their change of pace. This is a fairly close situation to Dallas but they did not have the overall offensive talent we do, mainly deficient at QB.

San Fran drafted Hyde to the back of the future and to spell Gore. Another good situation but he had an established bell cow in front of him.

Tampa Bay drafted Sims despite having a bellcow type in Martin. Offensive situation was awful. Bad QB, bad OL, few weapons.

Rams brought in Tre Mason and put him into a RBC with Stacy and Cunningham. Bad QB, bad OL.

Cleveland brought West into a RBC situation and had signed Tate as a free agent. Weak QB, weak weapons.

Mckinnon and Archer were both change of pace backs brought in to be backups to established bellcows.

I think that the depth of this year's class is outstanding, better than most of recent history, and the fact is that there is not a single back that will be coming into the type if situation there is in Dallas. If healthy, this team really has one opening and that is RB. We have a great QB. great passing game and a great OL. The situation is about as good as it can get for a RB coming into a team.
 

gimmesix

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I think you were 100 percent on that one. Choice did well when he had the opportunity. I just think he fell out of favor (Marion Barber emerged as the preferred back and he fell out of the rotation with Barber and Felix getting most of the touches) and because he didn't have great speed, he bounced around but never was able to find his place as a featured back. I think if the Cowboys had committed to him, he would have been similar to Ray Rice. Some guys only get one shot at the starting position. If they don't seize the opportunity - for whatever reason - then they fall out of favor and fall down the depth chart and never get that opportunity again. That's what I think happened to Tashard Choice. So, for what it's worth, I think your analysis was, actually, spot on.

It's possible. His career average is 4.2 and most of his better years came when he got more carries, possibly because he's not a home run-hitting back whose numbers can be inflated by one long run (although a 66-yarder helped his best season and he had a 38-yarder in his second-best season).

There are a variety of reasons backs don't turn out like you think they might. It's a tough position where you often only get one shot to prove you should be the man and sometimes not even that.
 

xwalker

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I was going to do it then decided it was too much work. I know that some of them improved, like Bell, while some of them fell off after that first year, like pretty much all of them in the 2012 class.

Martin went from 4.6 to 3.6 and 3.7. Wilson dropped from 5.0 to 3.3. Pead fell from 5.4 to 3.0. James actually went up from 4.8 to 4.9 on fewer carries but only played in one game the next year before going to Miami and playing in two. One of the constants seems to be injuries or a lack of playing time.

Pierce fell from 4.9 to 2.9 with more carries then averaged 3.9 the next year. Richardson's numbers got worse and he's on to his third team now. Hillman went down in carries and averaged 4.0 his second year then averaged 4.1 with his most carries (106) the next year.

So while 5 of 7 averaged 4.0 or better as rookies, only 2 of 7 did it the following year and only 1 of 7 the year after that.

It's not only tough to hit on a good rookie runner, it's very difficult to hit on one who can keep it up, which makes me think that DeMarco Murray is really done a disservice by some around here based on what he gave us for four years. One of those don't know what you've got till it's gone situations.

I certainly hope that's not the case and we actually are able to upgrade the position, but it doesn't look like it's going to be easy to do.

The significant stat in future years would be starts, IMO.
 

xwalker

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I think we are in danger of not considering the situation each player was going into and I think we are also not considering the fact that a certain number of the guys were never drafted to be bellcows....many were drafted as change of pace or specialists.

Tennessee drafted Sankey, but they had no QB, mediocre OL and few other weapons. I think they intended on RBC with Shonn Greene and Sankey,

Cincinnatti brought Hill in, they had a good offensive situation and also looked for RBC with Bernard as their change of pace. This is a fairly close situation to Dallas but they did not have the overall offensive talent we do, mainly deficient at QB.

San Fran drafted Hyde to the back of the future and to spell Gore. Another good situation but he had an established bell cow in front of him.

Tampa Bay drafted Sims despite having a bellcow type in Martin. Offensive situation was awful. Bad QB, bad OL, few weapons.

Rams brought in Tre Mason and put him into a RBC with Stacy and Cunningham. Bad QB, bad OL.

Cleveland brought West into a RBC situation and had signed Tate as a free agent. Weak QB, weak weapons.

Mckinnon and Archer were both change of pace backs brought in to be backups to established bellcows.

I think that the depth of this year's class is outstanding, better than most of recent history, and the fact is that there is not a single back that will be coming into the type if situation there is in Dallas. If healthy, this team really has one opening and that is RB. We have a great QB. great passing game and a great OL. The situation is about as good as it can get for a RB coming into a team.

Yes, that is a good point. Going back several years, McFadden was very limited because of the team he was on. They never consistently had a good OL and they often didn't have much of a passing game which caused defenses to stack the line against the run.

I would look primarily at starts for RBs over average or yards. A good RB should be his teams starter at some point even if his team is not that good.
 

Risen Star

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This doesn't take into account opportunity. How many of those backs went to a team with a top OL, a heavy commitment to the run and in need of a starting RB?
 

DFWJC

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I think this year's class is most compared to the 2008 class.

That class yielded several franchise RBs

Chris Johnson..had 6 straight 1000 yard seasons
Ray Rice...was outstanding...didn't get a ton of carries year one, then they found out what they had
Jamal Charles...still is outstanding...same as Rice
Matt Forte...strong steady top 10 every year

Jonathon Stewart...has had to share
McFadden has been an enigma..bad situation and injuries
Rashard Mendenhall...injuries derailed him
Justin Forsett...finally got a full work load this year and cashed in

Unfortunately, we took Felix freaking Jones.

Just pray we don't miss so bad again this time
 

gimmesix

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The significant stat in future years would be starts, IMO.

I'm more of a YPC guy, but only Richardson and Martin had more than 4 starts among that group after their first year.
 

gimmesix

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I think this year's class is most compared to the 2008 class.

That class yielded several franchise RBs

Chris Johnson..had 6 straight 1000 yard seasons
Ray Rice...was outstanding...didn't get a ton of carries year one, then they found out what they had
Jamal Charles...still is outstanding...same as Rice
Matt Forte...strong steady top 10 every year

Jonathon Stewart...has had to share
McFadden has been an enigma..bad situation and injuries
Rashard Mendenhall...injuries derailed him
Justin Forsett...finally got a full work load this year and cashed in

Unfortunately, we took Felix freaking Jones.

Just pray we don't miss so bad again this time

I really don't understand why people want to compare it to a class that had five first-round picks. This class probably has two. Even with that, though, I've shown elsewhere that only 50 percent of those backs taken in the first three rounds that year have had what could be considered successful careers.
 

DFWJC

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I really don't understand why people want to compare it to a class that had five first-round picks. This class probably has two. Even with that, though, I've shown elsewhere that only 50 percent of those backs taken in the first three rounds that year have had what could be considered successful careers.

Those players would never be taken in the 1st round in 2015. The position is incredibly devalued because most RBs that get heavy use will max out either during their 1st contract or shortly after.
Also shared backfields are more common now as well.
 

Idgit

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I think Hyde would have done better if he had started from Day 1. If the Niners are smart, I'd feed him early and often. He can take the pounding.

I agree. I like him a lot, actually. He's the kind of back I'd like to get in the lineup if we possibly could.
 

Idgit

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The only concern is selecting one of them instead of one of the poor ones. It's a tough thing to do. Some of the backs drafted in the first three rounds this year are going to fail. Hopefully, if that's the route we go, our scouts are able to identify which ones won't.

I've tried before and haven't done any better. The year, we selected Jones, I identified Ray Rice and Tashard Choice as two of my top backs because of their ability and vision to run between the tackles. I was 50-50 on that one.

It's always a craps shoot with the draft. But at least there are good players there at around that pick-60 level much of the time.

We basically hit on Randle where we took him, though. And there's upside on Williams, too. If they can all contribute, and if we play better defense, I think we'll be ok.
 
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