Chances of finding a starting RB in the draft

[xwalker]

I'm more of a YPC guy, but only Richardson and Martin had more than 4 starts among that group after their first year.

The YPC is heavily influenced by the surrounding team.

 

[Kaiser]

I'm totally fine with a 2nd or 3rd round pick joining McFadden and Randle in a Marinelli-style wave attack. I don't want Randle starting but he is good in his role - a few carries, pass block and play ST. McFadden will play well behind this OL if he is sharing carries with a guy like Ajayi or Buck Allen.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The YPC is heavily influenced by the surrounding team.

He's interested on emphasizing the uncertainty in the draft for one very specific reason.

 

[xwalker]

He's interested on emphasizing the uncertainty in the draft for one very specific reason.

I have not paid attention to all of his posts. I assume you mean that he has an AP agenda...

 

[xwalker]

I'm totally fine with a 2nd or 3rd round pick joining McFadden and Randle in a Marinelli-style wave attack. I don't want Randle starting but he is good in his role - a few carries, pass block and play ST. McFadden will play well behind this OL if he is sharing carries with a guy like Ajayi or Buck Allen.

I think Ryan Williams is above Randle on the depth chart as a runner.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I have not paid attention to all of his posts. I assume you mean that he has an AP agenda...

It is the exact same argument in the AP thread. If he was arguing for drafting CB or DE then he would make a similar analysis of them but there isn't because it's not too different than the RB situation.

In response to it I did a comparative analysis of HoF RB. It's 28% success rate if you don't include Sanders and Brown and up to near 40% if you do. I also showed how AP's performance had already started to decline in his 29th year going from 2000 yards to 1200. Either way the risk is as bad or worse with a price tag of 10 times as much.

AP fans don't want to hear that at age 30 he might already be in serious decline. They want to wave at the uncertainty of the draft and pretend he is invincible.

 

[Kaiser]

I think Ryan Williams is above Randle on the depth chart as a runner.

I do too, but I think the math is the same in that Randle is a better #3 than Williams. I know a bunch of people here consider Williams a legit option as the lead back but I just don't see it. I hope I'm wrong but I see Williams as a "traded for a conditional pick at the end of camp" guy at this point.

 

[Hoofbite]

Trouble is a lot of backs' YPC goes down when they become starters because teams start focusing on them, so they actually do worse with more carries because they can't fluff up their average with one or two decent runs.

I would say any player who's average can be fluffed by a couple decent runs likely isn't doing well in the first place.

Bottom line, most backs don't get the carries to make an impact. Furthermore, most backs don't project to go to a place that has a very good OL to work with.

If Dallas takes a RB high, that player will have all the opportunity in the world to prove himself.

 

[LatinMind]

There seems to be an assumption that we will be able to find a good-enough running back at some point in this draft, so I thought I would take a look at what past drafts show us about first-year success.

Running backs taken in the first three rounds are listed with number of starts/yards per carry/carries-total yards rushing/TDs for their first year.

2014 - 5 of 8 backs averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 2 of those had no starts; 3 of 8 started at least 8 games; 1 of 8 rushed for 1,000 yards; 1 of 8 scored more than 4 rushing TDs
(2-54) Bishop Sankey (9/3.7/152-569/2)
(2-55) Jeremy Hill (8/5.1/221-1,124/9)
(2-57) Carlos Hyde (0/4.0/83-333/4)
(3-69) Charles Sims (0/2.8/66-185/1)
(3-75) Tre Mason (9/4.3/179-765/4)
(3-94) Terrance West (6/3.9/171-673/4)
(3-96) Jerick McKinnon (6/4.8/113-538/0)
(3-97) Dri Archer (0/4.0/10-40/0)

2013 - 4 of 6 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 3 of those had no starts; 2 of 6 started at least 8 games; 1 of 6 rushed for 1,000 yards; 3 of 6 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(2-37) Giovani Bernard (0/4.1/170-695/5)
(2-48) Le'Veon Bell (13/3.5/244-860/8)
(2-58) Montee Ball (0/4.7/120-559/4)
(2-61) Eddie Lacy (15/4.1/284-1,178/11)
(2-62) Christine Michael (0/4.4/18-79/0)
(3-96) Knile Davis (1/3.5/70-242/4)

2012 - 5 of 7 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 4 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 2 of 7 started at least 8 games; 1 of 7 rushed for 1,000 yards; 2 of 7 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(1-3) Trent Richardson (15/3.6/267-950/11)
(1-31) Doug Martin (16/4.6/319-1,454/11)
(1-32) David Wilson (2/5.0/71-358/4)
(2-50) Isaiah Pead (1/5.4/10-54/0)
(2-61) LaMichael James (0/4.6/27-125/0)
(2-67) Ronnie Hillman (0/3.9/85-330/1)
(3-84) Bernard Pierce (0/4.9/108-532/1)

2011 - 2 of 8 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 1 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 1 of 7 started at least 8 games; 0 of 8 rushed for 1,000 yards; 2 of 8 had more than 4 rushing TDs
(1-28) Mark Ingram (4/3.9/122-474/5)
(2-38) Ryan Williams (3/2.8/58-164/0)
(2-56) Shane Vereen (0/3.8/15-57/1)
(2-57) Mikel Leshoure (14/3.7/215-798/9)
(2-62) Daniel Thomas (2/3.5/165-581/0)
(3-71) DeMarco Murray (7/5.5/164-897/2)
(3-73) Stevan Ridley (2/5.1/87-441/1)
(3-96) Alex Green (0/3.7/3-11/0)

So over a four-year span, 16 of 28 averaged at least 4.0 per carry, but 10 of those had 2 or fewer starts; 8 of 28 started at least 8 games; 3 of 28 rushed for 1,000 yards; 8 of 28 had more than 4 rushing TDs in their first years.

I dont think Dallas is looking for a starter in the draft. This organization was extremely high on McFadden, and they got him now really cheap. I think the Cowboys have him penciled in to start this yr unless he totally bombs. But i dont think he will. He was running behind one of the worst OLs in football with the worst QB situation in the nfl most of his career. He'll be 28 when the season starts. And he barely has over 1000 carries in his career. He should be ok

 

[gimmesix]

I dont think Dallas is looking for a starter in the draft. This organization was extremely high on McFadden, and they got him now really cheap. I think the Cowboys have him penciled in to start this yr unless he totally bombs. But i dont think he will. He was running behind one of the worst OLs in football with the worst QB situation in the nfl most of his career. He'll be 28 when the season starts. And he barely has over 1000 carries in his career. He should be ok

I'm not near as convinced of that as you are.

 

[gimmesix]

I would look primarily at starts for RBs over average or yards. A good RB should be his teams starter at some point even if his team is not that good.

That's why I included all the information, so everyone could draw their own conclusions.

 

[gimmesix]

This doesn't take into account opportunity. How many of those backs went to a team with a top OL, a heavy commitment to the run and in need of a starting RB?

Examining all of that would take more time than I have, but I'd love to see it.

 

[gimmesix]

It's always a craps shoot with the draft. But at least there are good players there at around that pick-60 level much of the time.

We basically hit on Randle where we took him, though. And there's upside on Williams, too. If they can all contribute, and if we play better defense, I think we'll be ok.

Yes, that's really all this shows. I presented this more from the standpoint of showing that those who just think this drafts deep at RB and we should be able to pick one up and be fine at any time are not looking at the evidence.

As far as Randle goes, I don't know if I count him as a hit. He did well as a backup last year after a poor year in that role the previous year. He may not even make the team this year for all we know.

 

[gimmesix]

The YPC is heavily influenced by the surrounding team.

Most things are influenced to some extent. Starts are influenced by who else you have on the team, health, etc.

Find me a stat that isn't for running backs.

I think YPC is the best measure for success even though it doesn't give all the details.

 

[Idgit]

Yes, that's really all this shows. I presented this more from the standpoint of showing that those who just think this drafts deep at RB and we should be able to pick one up and be fine at any time are not looking at the evidence.

As far as Randle goes, I don't know if I count him as a hit. He did well as a backup last year after a poor year in that role the previous year. He may not even make the team this year for all we know.

For a 5th rounder to contribute in the rotation, and to flash the potential to do more, I'm pretty happy. I agree, though, that if he knuckleheads his way off the team he's obviously not a 'hit.' He's shown enough in terms of talent on the field, though, for me to say they were probably right about his ability when they drafted him. If he weren't such a ding-dong, I'd be saying he's a guy that a lot of people are probably overlooking. As it is, yeah, he might not make it out of camp.

 

[gimmesix]

I have not paid attention to all of his posts. I assume you mean that he has an AP agenda...

I'm an advocate for getting Peterson at the right price because he's a proven commodity, but I don't see how that invalidates the statistics I've presented.

This thread isn't about Peterson, though. It's about how hard it is to draft a starting running back. I'm certainly all for drafting one if we don't go after Peterson, and I want us to do it within the first two rounds because the success rates for drafting one historically decline, as they do for other positions.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Belcow back's want starting RB salary's. Not happenin' in today's market. Jerry won't pay that salary.

There's a lot to be said about that.

Not only do "bell-cow" backs want a lot more $, they also wear-out faster.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I don't really care if we get a rookie RB who rushes for 1,000 yards or not. Just let's keep the ~4.2 ypc as a team and keep running the ball a fair amount of the time to stay in advantageous passing situations.

This.

That 4.2 ypc average combined with about 30 carries per game will yield good things.

And it doesn't matter if you have 1 back or 4 backs that do it.

 

[gimmesix]

For a 5th rounder to contribute in the rotation, and to flash the potential to do more, I'm pretty happy. I agree, though, that if he knuckleheads his way off the team he's obviously not a 'hit.' He's shown enough in terms of talent on the field, though, for me to say they were probably right about his ability when they drafted him. If he weren't such a ding-dong, I'd be saying he's a guy that a lot of people are probably overlooking. As it is, yeah, he might not make it out of camp.

I see your point and I don't really expect more of fifth-round picks than what Randle has shown. (We're lucky if they even make the team.) He was a hit last year from that standpoint, but not the kind of hit we need at the position this year.

We need to find someone who can at least compete for the starting job. One of these backs (or a group of them) has to be able to average in that 4.0-plus range to keep the ground game effective.

 

[xwalker]

I'm not near as convinced of that as you are.

Have you studied his game footage with the Raiders?

He looks fine physically. They were just terrible and he is not jitter-bug type RB that would ever be good when getting hit in the backfield on most plays. There are some styles of RB that can have some success with bad blocking, but McFadden and for that matter Murray are that type of players.

When I look at the 2014 version of McFadden, I think he could have played for Indiana or Wisconsin with similar or better results than Coleman/Gordon.