They would have a longshot but it is nowhere near "almost certainly". It would depend on how everything else shook out. An undefeated Notre Dame is in so you have to hope they lose - even a 1-loss Notre Dame is a definite threat if it was a close loss against a top team. The SEC is definitely sending 1 team and could easily send 2. Even with 1 loss, it would be pretty tough to exclude the defending national champions. And a 1-loss Oregon would beat any 1-loss Big 12 team. Hell, even a 1-loss Michigan State probably gets the nod over Oklahoma. What is the Big 12's best non-conference win? Tennessee? Don't make me laugh.
Aside from winning out, Oklahoma has to hope an awful lot of teams do an awful lot of losing for them to get in.
please stop talking about this if you are this bad at it.
OU has 3 teams in the top 15 remaining on the schedule including number 4 Baylor.
They sit at 11 and the majority of the teams above them play each other if not more than one of those teams.
OU will have 4 or 5 top 25 wins at seasons end and a dominant SEC victory in OOC if they do follow through and lose only once.
ND OR FSU will make the playoffs in all likelihood but NOT both. FSU plays ZERO top 20 teams other than ND.
A loss and they are done. They've looked quite mediocre anyway so a loss and the pollsters will drop them like a rock.
And that's if Winston doesn't get suspended or quit school.
ND has a better schedule than FSU but they've played no one with fewer than 2 losses currently and will play no one with fewer than 2 except FSU.
EVERY team above OU plays another team in the top 10 except MichSt. They play 13 OSU then presumably(tho who knows) Nebraska in the conf champ game.
Mich St has a 20 point loss to a team currently ranked below them.
No one respects the big 10 at all. Not even a little.
Any Big 12 1 loss conf winner will get a bowl nod. There really is only an infinitesimal chance of it being otherwise.
Right now it looks like a one loss winner from the Pac 12, one loss winner from the Big 12, the SEC winner and the ND/FSU winner get in.
But any conf that doesn't produce a winner with less than 2 losses or if both ND/FSU lose a game and then the SEC probably gets a second team.
If you doubt any of this feel free to break down the schedule for the 10 teams ranked above OU.