Comp Pick Value & Franchised Player Trades

[xwalker]

Comp Pick Value & Franchised Player Trades

I wanted to review the details of Comp Picks as it relates to roster planning.

I'll also review trading Franchised Players.


Comp Picks not Guaranteed
The comp pick formula is based on:
Lost and Gained free agents.
Value of Lost and Gained free agent contracts.
Performance of Lost/Gained free agents with new team.

The contracts don't need to be equal to offset.

Example Scenario
Condition 1: Zeke was a 2019 free agent and signed with another team.
Condition 2: Tyron's back forces retirement. Cowboys sign mid-tier FA LT.

Zeke 5 years, 85M, 51M guaranteed (signed by the Skins).
New LT 4 years, 55M, 32M guaranteed (signed by Cowboys).​

Result: Cowboys receive Zero comp picks from the loss of Zeke.

They would not know about Tyron's forced retirement prior to the 2019 season.
It would have been a mistake to "plan" on getting a comp pick for Zeke.

Comp Picks lost due to Player Performance

The NFL has not released the exact formula for comp picks.
The comp picks estimates are based on past history.
It is possible for a comp pick to be reduced or eliminated.

If the player lost does not perform with the new team.​

If Zeke signed with another team and was suspended...

It's possible that the Cowboys would lose the comp pick for him.​

Max Comp Picks Limited
The NFL limits total comp picks to 32.
A team might otherwise "qualify" for comp picks...

but receive less or none due to the limit.​

Dependent on comp picks awarded to other teams.


Comp Picks awarded 1 Year Later
Comp picks are 2 drafts after the free agent is lost.

Example

Cole Beasley signed with the Bills in March of 2019.
A comp pick for Beasley would be in the 2020 draft.​

Comp Picks at the End of Round
Example Scenario
Condition: IF Beasley signed a mega-contract.

The very best comp pick possible is a 3rd round comp pick.
Best 3rd round comp pick is pick #97 overall (3 x 32 = 96).
The top 3 rounds have 96 picks; #97 equivalent to Round[4]-Pick[1].
The pick is in the 2020 draft.​

Result: Cowboys receive equivalent of R[4]-P[1] in 2020 draft.



Comp Pick Current Year Value
Draft trades: Future picks valued 1 round lower.

Example Scenario
Condition (Beasley example): Cowboys net #97 in the 2020 draft.

Cowboys make trade in 2019 trade using expected comp pick.
Value of 2020 pick #97 is #129 in 2019 draft (97+32=129).
There are 128 picks in top 4 rounds. #129 equivalent to R[5]-P[1]​

Result: Cowboys get value equivalent to R[5]-P[1] in the 2019 draft.

Note:
Trading expected pick just for example of pick value.
They would actually trade their pick of similar value and
expect to have the comp pick to replace it.


Summary of Comp Pick Issues
Absolute best comp pick possible:

Equivalent to Round[5]-Pick[1] in draft of year free agent lost.​

Multiple factors could decrease comp pick value further or eliminate altogether.

Offset Free Agents signed.
Lost free agent's performance.
Max Comp pick limit.​

 

[xwalker]

Franchise Zeke and Trade

Note: Zeke set to be a free agent in 2021

Trade Value
Seattle Franchised DE Frank Clark, then traded him.

Seattle Received

2019 first-round pick
2020 second-round pick​

KC Received

DE Frank Clark
Equivalent of 6th round pick (swap of 92 and 84).​

Summary of options with Zeke


Option 1: Wait for Comp Pick ("let him walk")

Cowboys receive: Equivalent of 2021 Round[5]-Pick[1].
Note: Might receive lower value or NO comp pick.​

Option 2: Franchise and Trade Zeke (Frank Clark type trade)

Cowboys receive: 2021 first-round pick.
Cowboys receive: 2022 second-round pick.
Cowboys lose: 2021 6th round pick equivalent.​

Option 3: Sign Zeke to a New Contract

RBs cost less than QBs, DEs, WRs, etc..​

 

[Cattle_Rancher]

I’m going to be in the minority here I trade EE I just don’t value him that much over a rookie RB. Bell was in the 2nd round, Hunt was a 3rd round pick, I don’t remember where the Saints took Kamara. I also value Jaylon, BJ, Dak, and Cooper over EE not that I think they are better players just harder to replace would rather spend the money on those guys and draft a RB.

 

[whynot]

We know how the offence works without Zeke.

We know how the offence works without Cooper.

We don’t know how the offence works without Dak.

 

[Toomany10pins]

Franchise Zeke and Trade

Note: Zeke set to be a free agent in 2021

Trade Value
Seattle Franchised DE Frank Clark, then traded him.

Seattle Received

2019 first-round pick
2020 second-round pick​

KC Received

DE Frank Clark
Equivalent of 6th round pick (swap of 92 and 84).​

Summary of options with Zeke


Option 1: Wait for Comp Pick ("let him walk")

Cowboys receive: Equivalent of 2021 Round[5]-Pick[1].
Note: Might receive lower value or NO comp pick.​

Naw, unless I’m missing something Zeke would get you a third round COMP pick unless a Dallas signed a top tier FA.

 

[Stash]

Franchise Zeke and Trade

Note: Zeke set to be a free agent in 2021

Trade Value
Seattle Franchised DE Frank Clark, then traded him.

Seattle Received

2019 first-round pick
2020 second-round pick​

KC Received

DE Frank Clark
Equivalent of 6th round pick (swap of 92 and 84).​

Summary of options with Zeke


Option 1: Wait for Comp Pick ("let him walk")

Cowboys receive: Equivalent of 2021 Round[5]-Pick[1].
Note: Might receive lower value or NO comp pick.​

Option 2: Franchise and Trade Zeke (Frank Clark type trade)

Cowboys receive: 2021 first-round pick.
Cowboys receive: 2022 second-round pick.
Cowboys lose: 2021 6th round pick equivalent.​

Option 3: Sign Zeke to a New Contract

RBs cost less than QBs, DEs, WRs, etc..​

I see things being seriously skewed toward particular outcomes here.

If we're placing notes beside the options, make sure to note in option 2 that nobody is trading for a running back who could potentially be suspended tomorrow for any further screw-ups.

And when talking option 3, be sure to note that any contract would exceed the 4-year $60 million deal that Todd Gurley got. The one the Rams are sorely regretting already.

 

[Irvin88_4life]

We know how the offence works without Zeke.

We know how the offence works without Cooper.

We don’t know how the offence works without Dak.

We do know how the offense works without Dak, at least under Garrett and it's a terrible record and would give us a number 1 overall pick in the draft. When Romo went out this team was 1-11 and that's with experience QBs and better than Rush or White. Without Dak this team will struggle to win 3 games.

 

[big dog cowboy]

We don’t know how the offence works without Dak.

Prior to Dak was 2015.

Matt Cassel (1-6) and Brandon Weeden (0-3) provides all the evidence you need.

 

[Stash]

Prior to Dak was 2015.

Matt Cassel (1-6) and Brandon Weeden (0-3) provides all the evidence you need.

I think that's a dose of reality that many of Dak's critics don't like to deal with.

 

[jazzcat22]

We do know how the offense works without Dak, at least under Garrett and it's a terrible record and would give us a number 1 overall pick in the draft. When Romo went out this team was 1-11 and that's with experience QBs and better than Rush or White. Without Dak this team will struggle to win 3 games.

Prior to Dak was 2015.

Matt Cassel (1-6) and Brandon Weeden (0-3) provides all the evidence you need.

I think that's a dose of reality that many of Dak's critics don't like to deal with.

This won't sit well with the Dak "dislikers". But hey, they never let hard core facts get in their way.

 

[Kaiser]

Prior to Dak was 2015.

Matt Cassel (1-6) and Brandon Weeden (0-3) provides all the evidence you need.

You stole my post.

Pretty funny we got all the threads about Cooper Rush looking awful even in preseason games, then we get "who needs Dak" posts.

 

[Kaiser]

I think that's a dose of reality that many of Dak's critics don't like to deal with.

Chad Hutchinson is tanned, rested and ready.

 

[xwalker]

I see things being seriously skewed toward particular outcomes here.

If we're placing notes beside the options, make sure to note in option 2 that nobody is trading for a running back who could potentially be suspended tomorrow for any further screw-ups.

And when talking option 3, be sure to note that any contract would exceed the 4-year $60 million deal that Todd Gurley got. The one the Rams are sorely regretting already.

Zeke will be a free agent after 2020, not after 2019. There is no current reason to believe he would not have trade value.

I used Frank Clark as the trade example. A little history on him:
Clark was suspended from the team in 2012 for felony second-degree home invasion. He was subject to punishment not more than 15 years in prison and $3,000 fine, but was eligible for sentencing under the Holmes Youthful Trainee Act.

On November 16, 2014, Clark was arrested for domestic violence.

In 2017 he made veiled threats on Twitter against journalist Natalie Weiner.

There were rumors the Seahawks didn't retain him due to behavioral issues.

 

[xwalker]

I see things being seriously skewed toward particular outcomes here.

If we're placing notes beside the options, make sure to note in option 2 that nobody is trading for a running back who could potentially be suspended tomorrow for any further screw-ups.

And when talking option 3, be sure to note that any contract would exceed the 4-year $60 million deal that Todd Gurley got. The one the Rams are sorely regretting already.

15M per is a bargain for a Super Star player like Zeke.
DLaw 21M
Dak likely 34M
Cooper likely 18M+
Byron Jones likely well over 10M

The "regret" about Gurley seems to be a national media rumor.

The Rams have not indicated they regret the Gurley contract.

I have not seen Rams local media say they regret it.

The big contribution by CJ Anderson was primarily against the Cowboys. In that game:
Gurley 115 Rushing Yards
Anderson 123 Rushing Yards

In the 2018 regular season:
Snaps Played
Zeke 890, 14 games, 59.3 per game
Gurley 825, 15 games, 59.9 per game

Gurley was banged up at the end of 2018 and into the playoffs. A chronic condition is possible but I have not seen that rumor substantiated.

 

[xwalker]

Naw, unless I’m missing something Zeke would get you a third round COMP pick unless a Dallas signed a top tier FA.

Please read my complete explanation.

If Beasley had signed a mega-contract with the Bills that would net a 3rd round comp pick, that pick would be in 2020 at the END of the 3rd round.

The equivalent value of the pick in the 2019 draft (the draft after the free agent Beasley departed) would be Round 5, Pick 1.

The value would be even lower if multiple other teams received 3rd round comp picks in the 2020 draft.

If Beasley had been a super star player that was franchised then traded, the pick received in the trade would be in the 2019 draft. Getting a 4th round pick in a trade would have more value than the best comp pick.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

We know how the offence works without Zeke.

We know how the offence works without Cooper.

We don’t know how the offence works without Dak.

So 2015 just never happened?

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

The reality is that you would be receiving a 3rd round pick in the next draft, not a 5th rounder in the current one.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Saying it's a 4th instead of a 3rd is just silly, unless we want to start claiming the 32nd pick in the draft is a 2nd rounder too, which noone is going to do. Also the "year later" present value given of 1 round is super outdated. I don't need to explain that there's a huge difference in value created between trading a 2020 6th rounder for a 2019 6th rounder or trading a 2020 1st round for a 2019 2nd rounder. It simply just isn't the case.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

So 2015 just never happened?

How is the 2015 roster comparable to the 2019?

Was the defense expected to be great then like it is now?

Are we really pretending what happened 4 years ago has any bearing on today? And the decisions we should and/or shouldn't make?

Why does moving on from Dak mean we have to have the worst qb play this team has seen in 20 years?

OH and we ran the ball well in 2015 since you mention it. And that was with the worst passing attack we've had in 20 years and no Zeke.

 

[Stash]

Zeke will be a free agent after 2020, not after 2019. There is no current reason to believe he would not have trade value.

Not true at all. He will always be one more screwup away from suspension or worse.

I used Frank Clark as the trade example. A little history on him:
Clark was suspended from the team in 2012 for felony second-degree home invasion. He was subject to punishment not more than 15 years in prison and $3,000 fine, but was eligible for sentencing under the Holmes Youthful Trainee Act.

On November 16, 2014, Clark was arrested for domestic violence.

In 2017 he made veiled threats on Twitter against journalist Natalie Weiner.

There were rumors the Seahawks didn't retain him due to behavioral issues.

What has Frank Clark been suspended for since he's joined the NFL? That is a comparable discussion point.

 

[Stash]

15M per is a bargain for a Super Star player like Zeke.
DLaw 21M
Dak likely 34M
Cooper likely 18M+
Byron Jones likely well over 10M

The "regret" about Gurley seems to be a national media rumor.

The Rams have not indicated they regret the Gurley contract.

What teams ever say it publicly when they're stuck with a player?

I have not seen Rams local media say they regret it.

Keep looking, you'll find plenty. If you need my help to find it, just let me know and I'll be glad to help.

The big contribution by CJ Anderson was primarily against the Cowboys. In that game:
Gurley 115 Rushing Yards
Anderson 123 Rushing Yards

In the 2018 regular season:
Snaps Played
Zeke 890, 14 games, 59.3 per game
Gurley 825, 15 games, 59.9 per game

Gurley was banged up at the end of 2018 and into the playoffs. A chronic condition is possible but I have not seen that rumor substantiated.

Again, you need to keep digging. It's well established.