Conservative Passers

[gjkoeppen]

This is a pretty interesting article I came across that gives some stats on how often QB's tend to throw short
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...eaning-on-the-short-pass-and-its-not-working/

Here's a few things that this article didn't mention. When the short passes were thrown what kind of defense was being used, man or zone? When these short passes are being thrown how many receivers are out in patterns? When these short passes are thrown how many times did the QB correctly identify a blitz coming and had to unload the ball quickly? When these short passes are thrown how often was the team already in field goal range and rather than possible risking a sack and being knock out of range opted for the quick pass to get what they could and possibly get a 1st if not they have the field goal? When these short passes are thrown was it because the coach is conservative and rather than risking a pick and turn over he chooses to play the field position game and count on his defense to hold them so they get another shot with good field position? The point here is there are to many variables on this to just make any kind of judgement from these stats.
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[shabazz]

Prescott vs. good defenses looks awful .

Edited for Clarity

If you had stopped there we would have been in complete agreement

 

[gjkoeppen]

I can't stand articles like this, I mean what is the author really trying to convey here?

It's like he is cherry picking metrics to advertise that a short passing game dosen't work all while admitting that some team's do it highly highly successfully. Well what I would like the author to do is lift their head out of the box and explain to me why "those" teams can make it highly successful, when your analytics and data says it shouldn't be.

They keep rambling about throwing short of the sticks on third down. Could it have something to do with defenses typically blitzing on third and long thus not providing time for you sit around and be choosy about it???

A good example of what you were saying is the teams that run a "west cost" offense which is primarily a dink and dunk offense and do it well.
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[mcmvp]

Prescott vs. good defenses looks an awful lot like young Romo vs. good defenses and young Aikman vs good defenses. Was Aikman "just not an NFL starting caliber QB yet" in the season that he went to his second Pro Bowl and won his first Super Bowl?

Here are the differentials (in bold) in passer rating (Top 5 pass defenses vs. #6-32). The raw rating in parentheses for Romo and Aikman adjusts their eras to 2016-17 averages.

Prescott -22.1
era avg rtg 86.4
vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses (6 games)
111 of 187 (59%) 1180 yd (6.3 ypa) 6 td 5 int 77.4

vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses (26.5 games)
531 of 803 (66%) 6087 yd (7.6 ypa) 42 td 13 int 99.5

Romo -21.9
era avg rtg 80.3
first 6 career games vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses
124 of 213 (58%) 1472 yd (6.9 ypa) 7 td 8 int 74.7 (80.0)

first 26.5 games vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses
564 of 871 (65%) 7182 yd (8.3 ypa) 55 td 31 int 96.6 (103.4)

Aikman -28.7
era avg rtg 73.5
1991-92, in 6 games vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses
105 of 187 (56%) 1243 yd (6.6 ypa) 8 td 10 int 68.5 (78.7)

1991-92 vs. #6-28 Pass Defenses
506 of 754 (67%) 5865 yd (7.8 ypa) 34 td 15 int 97.2 (111.7)

Romo's "Top 5" games cover his first three seasons as a starter, as he did not face his 6th Top-5 pass defense until 2008.

Aikman's games come from his first two Pro Bowl seasons, which were his 3rd and 4th seasons as a starter.

I love reading stats like this...thanks for posting. Even numbers like this, however, can fall well short of telling the complete story. I'm curious how you rated the top defenses. Did you use yards or opposing QB passer rating? Dallas, for example, was ranked as the 11th best pass defense in terms of yardage in 2017...but 26th in terms of opposing QB passing efficiency. Philly was 17th in passing defense (yards), but 9th in opposing QB passing efficiency.

 

[percyhoward]

I love reading stats like this...thanks for posting. Even numbers like this, however, can fall well short of telling the complete story. I'm curious how you rated the top defenses. Did you use yards or opposing QB passer rating? Dallas, for example, was ranked as the 11th best pass defense in terms of yardage in 2017...but 26th in terms of opposing QB passing efficiency. Philly was 17th in passing defense (yards), but 9th in opposing QB passing efficiency.

Passer rating, for both the QB and the defenses that they faced.

It wouldn't work to use two different metrics (apples and oranges).

 

[mcmvp]

Passer rating, for both the QB and the defenses that they faced.

It wouldn't work to use two different metrics (apples and oranges).

I agree...which was why I was curious