Conservative Passers

erod said:
Good defenses destroy him because he's just not an NFL starting caliber quarterback yet.
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Prescott vs. good defenses looks an awful lot like young Romo vs. good defenses and young Aikman vs good defenses. Was Aikman "just not an NFL starting caliber QB yet" in the season that he went to his second Pro Bowl and won his first Super Bowl?

Here are the differentials (in bold) in passer rating (Top 5 pass defenses vs. #6-32). The raw rating in parentheses for Romo and Aikman adjusts their eras to 2016-17 averages.

Prescott -22.1
era avg rtg 86.4
vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses (6 games)
111 of 187 (59%) 1180 yd (6.3 ypa) 6 td 5 int 77.4

vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses (26.5 games)
531 of 803 (66%) 6087 yd (7.6 ypa) 42 td 13 int 99.5

Romo -21.9
era avg rtg 80.3
first 6 career games vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses
124 of 213 (58%) 1472 yd (6.9 ypa) 7 td 8 int 74.7 (80.0)

first 26.5 games vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses
564 of 871 (65%) 7182 yd (8.3 ypa) 55 td 31 int 96.6 (103.4)

Aikman -28.7
era avg rtg 73.5
1991-92, in 6 games vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses
105 of 187 (56%) 1243 yd (6.6 ypa) 8 td 10 int 68.5 (78.7)

1991-92 vs. #6-28 Pass Defenses
506 of 754 (67%) 5865 yd (7.8 ypa) 34 td 15 int 97.2 (111.7)

Romo's "Top 5" games cover his first three seasons as a starter, as he did not face his 6th Top-5 pass defense until 2008.

Aikman's games come from his first two Pro Bowl seasons, which were his 3rd and 4th seasons as a starter.
 
percyhoward said:
Prescott vs. good defenses looks an awful lot like young Romo vs. good defenses and young Aikman vs good defenses. Was Aikman "just not an NFL starting caliber QB yet" in the season that he went to his second Pro Bowl and won his first Super Bowl?

Here are the differentials (in bold) in passer rating (Top 5 pass defenses vs. #6-32). The raw rating in parentheses for Romo and Aikman adjusts their eras to 2016-17 averages.

Prescott -22.1
era avg rtg 86.4
vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses (6 games)
111 of 187 (59%) 1180 yd (6.3 ypa) 6 td 5 int 77.4

vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses (26.5 games)
531 of 803 (66%) 6087 yd (7.6 ypa) 42 td 13 int 99.5

Romo -21.9
era avg rtg 80.3
first 6 career games vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses
124 of 213 (58%) 1472 yd (6.9 ypa) 7 td 8 int 74.7 (80.0)

first 26.5 games vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses
564 of 871 (65%) 7182 yd (8.3 ypa) 55 td 31 int 96.6 (103.4)

Aikman -28.7
era avg rtg 73.5
1991-92, in 6 games vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses
105 of 187 (56%) 1243 yd (6.6 ypa) 8 td 10 int 68.5 (78.7)

1991-92 vs. #6-28 Pass Defenses
506 of 754 (67%) 5865 yd (7.8 ypa) 34 td 15 int 97.2 (111.7)

Romo's "Top 5" games cover his first three seasons as a starter, as he did not face his 6th Top-5 pass defense until 2008.

Aikman's games come from his first two Pro Bowl seasons, which were his 3rd and 4th seasons as a starter.
Click to expand...

Should have dropped the mic on that one. :thumbup:
 
percyhoward said:
Prescott vs. good defenses looks an awful lot like young Romo vs. good defenses and young Aikman vs good defenses. Was Aikman "just not an NFL starting caliber QB yet" in the season that he went to his second Pro Bowl and won his first Super Bowl?

Here are the differentials (in bold) in passer rating (Top 5 pass defenses vs. #6-32). The raw rating in parentheses for Romo and Aikman adjusts their eras to 2016-17 averages.

Prescott -22.1
era avg rtg 86.4
vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses (6 games)
111 of 187 (59%) 1180 yd (6.3 ypa) 6 td 5 int 77.4

vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses (26.5 games)
531 of 803 (66%) 6087 yd (7.6 ypa) 42 td 13 int 99.5

Romo -21.9
era avg rtg 80.3
first 6 career games vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses
124 of 213 (58%) 1472 yd (6.9 ypa) 7 td 8 int 74.7 (80.0)

first 26.5 games vs. #6-32 Pass Defenses
564 of 871 (65%) 7182 yd (8.3 ypa) 55 td 31 int 96.6 (103.4)

Aikman -28.7
era avg rtg 73.5
1991-92, in 6 games vs. Top 5 Pass Defenses
105 of 187 (56%) 1243 yd (6.6 ypa) 8 td 10 int 68.5 (78.7)

1991-92 vs. #6-28 Pass Defenses
506 of 754 (67%) 5865 yd (7.8 ypa) 34 td 15 int 97.2 (111.7)

Romo's "Top 5" games cover his first three seasons as a starter, as he did not face his 6th Top-5 pass defense until 2008.

Aikman's games come from his first two Pro Bowl seasons, which were his 3rd and 4th seasons as a starter.
Click to expand...

Good. Now do you clearly see what an absolute joke it is to use stats to judge quarterbacks? Numbers can actually show that what look's to be an NFL journeyman statistically outperformed a Hall-of-Famer and an elite quarterback.

There's a reason the NFL world is doubting Prescott right now. It's because they understand what it is they're looking at.

Much has to change this year, or Dak won't be here much longer. We've got to see a major evolution in his game, and fast.

Hopefully, he does. That makes the future much less complicated for the Cowboys. But right now, he's the worst QB in the division if Eli wakes up.
 
erod said:
Good. Now do you clearly see what an absolute joke it is to use stats to judge quarterbacks? Numbers can actually show that what look's to be an NFL journeyman statistically outperformed a Hall-of-Famer and an elite quarterback.
Click to expand...
Those are adjusted for era, and the sample sizes are very similar. Using the same information for all three QB (attempts, completions, yards, TD, INT), you can see that all 3 struggled to about the same degree against the best pass defenses they faced.

If you don't think things like attempts, completions, yards, TD, and INT are the best way to judge an "NFL starting caliber QB," then what exactly do you go by?
 
Interesting that teams that call alot of short passing plays show up high on the list and teams like dallas who don't are at the bottom. This article doesn't take into account the offensive philosophy of the team and the term short is not defined clearly.
 
One could say Tony Romo was a conservative passer.





Just kidding
 
Aviano90 said:
No matter how many stats disprove Dak is a dink and dunker, the Dak haters will not budge off their false claim. It isn’t even worth discussing with them since they are bound and determined to dismiss objective data in favor of their (blind) eye ball test.
Click to expand...
To be fair, those are stats garnered over a season. That brand of stat lacks context. There were games late in the season where the poor pass protection demanded he dink and dunk.
 
I think stats are great, but they never really tell you certain things. If you combine different statistics they can help quantify things a little bit better, but they never really give you the complete picture. Stats can tell you the result of a given play but they can't tell you why something happened.

Throwing short seems to be a recipe for disaster if you read that article, but I would suggest that the results you could expect from a 3 yard pass to Marshawn Lynch and Tavon Austin would probably be very different.

One star that I did find very interesting is that the Cowboys were dead last in RAC as suggested in the article. That does fit in line with what I have been saying for some time by the eyeball test. Witten can't run, he was consistently short of the sticks and our receiver corps, including Dez sucked.

I think Beasley was the only serviceable receiver on the team and once teams figured that out it really put pressure on the offense.

In fairness, part of RAC is where a QB puts the ball, so that may be part of the reason too, I just thought it was an interesting stat. You can't ingnore the eyeball test in the process of evaluating statistics.
 
Flamma said:
One could say Tony Romo was a conservative passer.
Click to expand...
You could say he became more conservative later in his career, or you could just say he made better decisions. But early in their careers, compared to Prescott (so far) and Aikman (year 3 and 4), Romo was much more of a gunslinger. These numbers are combined from my earlier post in this thread, again with passer ratings adjusted for era. Note Romo's high yards per attempt, TD %, and INT %.

Romo
688 of 1084 (64%) 8654 yd (8.0 ypa) 62 td (5.7% td) 39 int (3.6% int) 92.3 (adj 97.6)
Aikman
611 of 941 (65%) 7108 yd (7.6 ypa) 42 td (4.5% td) 25 int (2.7% int) 91.5 (adj 103.4)
Prescott
643 of 987 (65%) 7293 yd (7.4 ypa) 48 td (4.9% td) 18 int (1.8% int) 95.8

Keep in mind that in Aikman's era, TD (3.8%) were just as common as INT (3.7%). That's why his adjusted passer rating is noticeably higher than the other two QB -- the combination of his ypa and TD/INT ratio was pretty outstanding at the time for a non-WCO.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm
 
erod said:
Good. Now do you clearly see what an absolute joke it is to use stats to judge quarterbacks? Numbers can actually show that what look's to be an NFL journeyman statistically outperformed a Hall-of-Famer and an elite quarterback.

There's a reason the NFL world is doubting Prescott right now. It's because they understand what it is they're looking at.

Much has to change this year, or Dak won't be here much longer. We've got to see a major evolution in his game, and fast.

Hopefully, he does. That makes the future much less complicated for the Cowboys. But right now, he's the worst QB in the division if Eli wakes up.
Click to expand...

I think it's fair to doubt Prescott, because he is still young and doesn't have a long track record. To be fair he has performed at an elite level, and he had about half a season that was most recent that didn't look elite. But for where is compared to other QBs that came before him, he looks a lot better than most, even with his warts.

Time will tell what he is. I believe he will be fine, but that's merely my opinion. With my thoughts and $5 you can get a cup of coffee at Starbucks these days.
 
Undefeated said:
This is a pretty interesting article I came across that gives some stats on how often QB's tend to throw short
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...eaning-on-the-short-pass-and-its-not-working/
Click to expand...

Nice read. But what this article doesnt take into account is the team, offense, or experience of the QB.

For example. A team with a great defense or run first offense may be better off being conservative. I certainly dont want my first or 2nd year QB winging it all over the field. What is the score? All these factors go into it.

Then you have to look at the receiver themselves. Can the guy turn a short pass into a big game more often then not? Do you guys that can get open deep? Do you have the Oline that gives you the time to throw deep? Is your scheme predicted on the short pass such as the west coast offense?
 
jday said:
To be fair, those are stats garnered over a season. That brand of stat lacks context. There were games late in the season where the poor pass protection demanded he dink and dunk.
Click to expand...
i wouldn't just say poor pass protection was the reason. I look at our QB and he doesn't move or sit in the pocket too comfortably, seems to want to run wide every time he thinks there might be pressure. Often times he holds onto the ball too long and the oline isn't going to be a "infinite wall of protection". Against ATL, the oline was only 1/3 of the problem, not all of it like many seem to believe since most will probably use that game as a prime example.
 
Captain43Crash said:
Screens can be a great weapon vs good D lines. I know this was the olden days, but Landry had some awesome screens. He was very creative in all the ways he ran them. Tony D. was fun to watch on screens.
Click to expand...

Its unfortunate we don't run many screens. Its also unfortunate we don't run many draws also. Or that we don't use Prescott out of the pocket with some design plays more often.
 
Verdict said:
I think it's fair to doubt Prescott, because he is still young and doesn't have a long track record. To be fair he has performed at an elite level, and he had about half a season that was most recent that didn't look elite. But for where is compared to other QBs that came before him, he looks a lot better than most, even with his warts.

Time will tell what he is. I believe he will be fine, but that's merely my opinion. With my thoughts and $5 you can get a cup of coffee at Starbucks these days.
Click to expand...

Only if you can execute a perfectly timed Lombardi-esque sweep around the homeless people clogging the lanes thanks to the new "come squat with me" policy.
 
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