Could Okie State leapfrog Alabama?

[Rogah]

Don't shoot the messenger, just relaying CBS Sports and LA times projections.

I have no idea what the LA Times says, but CBS projects Stanford against OSU in the Fiesta. When they say the Alamo Bowl is "Big 12 No. 3 vs. Pac-12 No. 2" they are calling that Oklahoma versus Washington. When a conference sends 2 teams into the BCS, everyone else generally moves up a rank in their conference standings for the purposes of bowl positioning. That's why they're calling Washington the #2 Pac-12 team.

OU and OSU would flip spots in that projection lineup if OU wins this Saturday (or OSU would go Cotton and K-State would go Alamo), but there's no way Stanford fails to get an at-large. In fact, they likely won't even need an at large bid because there is a strong chance they get an automatic bid by virtue of finishing in the top 4.

NOTE: The only way Stanford doesn't get an automatic birth is if:

A) They fall to 5th in the BCS standings (not bloody likely), or
B) They finish 4th and a non-conference winner finishes 3rd. The only way this could possibly happen is if LSU loses to UGA and falls to 3rd, or OSU does indeed leap over Alabama into 2nd place.

 

[Rogah]

NOTE: The only way Stanford doesn't get an automatic birth is if:

A) They fall to 5th in the BCS standings (not bloody likely), or
B) They finish 4th and a non-conference winner finishes 3rd. The only way this could possibly happen is if LSU loses to UGA and falls to 3rd, or OSU does indeed leap over Alabama into 2nd place.

EDIT: I'm ashamed to say that part (B) is incorrect. If LSU loses and falls to 3rd, they would get left out of the BCS entirely by virtue of the fact that the SEC would already be sending 2 teams to the BCS: Alabama to the title game and UGA as conference champs. (Also, if through some crazy quirk of the BCS formula LSU loses but stays in the top 2 and Alabama somehow drops to 3rd, then Alabama gets left out of the BCS).

Of course, all this talk of automatic qualifiers ignores the fact that if Stanford somehow doesn't get the AQ, they're going to be the BCS's #1 at larget choice.

 

[NickZepp]

The top 2 is pretty much set. The only chance OSU has is if LSU gets blown out, and even then I'm not sure LSU falls enough with as much hype as they get. And I also don't think OSU will beat OU. They haven't beat OU in nearly a decade and in games that matter Bob Stoops and staff suddenly come up with a game plan most of the time. It's the Bowl games where OU chokes.

 

[Cythim]

I don't think it is. Consider the following...

Yes they are #5 in the 2 human polls. But they are still curently #3 in the BCS. This is because 2 of the 6 computers already have them at #2, and Stanford/VT don't really have an overwhelming lead over them.

So if OSU beat OU, then they may yet take over more of the computers and get to #2 via the computers.

And keep in mind that Stanford and Bama are both idle this next week, so they wont be gaining helping their own cases. And VT (who the computers hate) rematches Clemson, so a big part of this whole thing will be whether or not people/computers find a neutral site win over Clemson or a home win vs OU to be more impressive.

Also, as far as the human polls go, take into consideration that there may be some people that don't like the idea of Bama or Stanford, two teams that aren't even in their conference championships playing in the BCS championship.

Just saying, it could happen.

I'm not saying it can't, I just think the spread between Bama and Ok State is too much to cover in 1 week. Bama's poll average is .955 while OK State is sitting back at .871. The human polls would have to change drastically to make up that difference.

 

[Cythim]

Stanford might well miss a BCS bid because of alignment formatting of bowls, at present they'd be going to the Alamo Bowl.

No they won't. I would point you to bowl projections but CBS Sports is obviously biased with 16th ranked Michigan sitting in the Sugar Bowl as an at large.

 

[joseephuss]

No they won't. I would point you to bowl projections but CBS Sports is obviously biased with 16th ranked Michigan sitting in the Sugar Bowl as an at large.

I don't think that is a bias. I am not a Michigan fan, but they are a bigger draw than Stanford. They travel well. They were talking about that possibility on ESPN radio yesterday.

 

[Doomsday101]

I think OSU will leap frog Bama with a win over OU who is ranked 10th in the BCS

 

[Keystone_Heavy]

I think OSU will leap frog Bama with a win over OU who is ranked 10th in the BCS

Thank you! There is a VERY real chance it happens. Not playing anyone vs beating #10? C'mon!

 

[Cowboy06]

I'm an Oklahoma State grad and would love to see them play LSU. However, I don't think it will or should happen. Their style of defense and overall lack of beating quality teams outside of the Big 12 isn't there. I do hope they beat OU and get invited to a BCS game. Then again, I think the BCS is crap. I want a playoff system so badly I almost hate watching bowl games.

 

[joseephuss]

I think OSU will leap frog Bama with a win over OU who is ranked 10th in the BCS

Thank you! There is a VERY real chance it happens. Not playing anyone vs beating #10? C'mon!

Possible, yes. Probable, low.

 

[Rogah]

No they won't. I would point you to bowl projections but CBS Sports is obviously biased with 16th ranked Michigan sitting in the Sugar Bowl as an at large.

Even though they are at 16, Michigan has a really good chance because so many teams ahead of them are either ineligible or simply won't get invites. Barring any major upsets here's what we're likely to see as far as teams ahead of Michigan not getting BCS bids:

Boise State: They'll get passed over because of Houston. They could technically get an invite but I just don't see it happening

Arkansas: ineligible

OU/K-State: This is the tricky part. If OU loses they would fall too far. K State would possibly deserve an invite and be screwed if they didn't get one. If OU wins, there's a chance both OU and OSU get invites, so K-State becomes ineligible.

South Carolina: ineligible

Michigan State/Wisconsin: Winner is in, loser will fall too far

Georgia: Unless they win, they'll be ineligible

 

[Chocolate Lab]

That's pretty much how I feel. The sad fact of the matter is that voting isn't always taken terribly seriously week in and week out, but next week's vote will have everyone knowing that whom they put at #2 will go a long way towards determining who plays LSU. I think OSU could easily pick up some votes from people who are sick of the SEC or who don't want a non-conference winner to play in the championship game.

OSU is being punished (quite unfairly) for the fact that their loss is so recent.

But in fairness -- and I like OSU -- they lost to a pretty bad team as opposed to Bama, who lost to the best team in the country.

And even if OSU killed OU, voters could just think, "Well yeah, but OU lost to a horrible Texas Tech team."

I personally would love to see OSU make the championship game, though. I'm sure LSU would win, but I wouldn't mind seeing OSU's offense go against LSU's defense. IMO OSU would be better than Arkansas if they were both on their games, and that LSU-Arkansas game was at least close the first half and more entertaining than that offenseless Bama-LSU game.

 

[Rogah]

But in fairness -- and I like OSU -- they lost to a pretty bad team as opposed to Bama, who lost to the best team in the country.

True, but OSU's overall strength of scheulde is far tougher than Alabama's. If OSU beats OU, that will be 5 wins over teams currently ranked in the BCS-25. Alabama only has 2. And that's why OSU's computer ranking will be higher than Alabama's, but they are punished by the pollsters for having their loss be so recent.

 

[Cythim]

Even though they are at 16, Michigan has a really good chance because so many teams ahead of them are either ineligible or simply won't get invites. Barring any major upsets here's what we're likely to see as far as teams ahead of Michigan not getting BCS bids:

Boise State: They'll get passed over because of Houston. They could technically get an invite but I just don't see it happening

Arkansas: ineligible

OU/K-State: This is the tricky part. If OU loses they would fall too far. K State would possibly deserve an invite and be screwed if they didn't get one. If OU wins, there's a chance both OU and OSU get invites, so K-State becomes ineligible.

South Carolina: ineligible

Michigan State/Wisconsin: Winner is in, loser will fall too far

Georgia: Unless they win, they'll be ineligible

There is really only one slot open for discussion that Michigan can win. Of the 10 total slots 6 are taken by conference champions, 1 by the SEC runner-up, 1 by the best non-AQ conference champion, and Stanford gets an AQ for being ranked top 4 and not winning their conference. The spot should go to the 2nd place team from the Big 12 or to Boise State.

Michigan first needs to get into the Top 14 before they can even be considered for a selection. That should be easy with a Georgia loss and a MichSt/Wis loss but Baylor, TCU, and Clemson are right behind them and play this weekend. I would wait for them to become eligible before projecting them into a BCS game.

 

[Doomsday101]

Possible, yes. Probable, low.

Because people and computers put up these rankings you never know but I do think OSU beating OU while Bama sits will push OSU to the #2 spot if they win.

 

[Keystone_Heavy]

Because people and computers put up these rankings you never know but I do think OSU beating OU while Bama sits will push OSU to the #2 spot if they win.

This.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

It's possible. Voters won't want an Alabama vs LSU rematch, especially when LSU won at Alabama. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then hopefully enough human voters put Oklahoma State at #2, that the computers do as well.

 

[Keystone_Heavy]

It's possible. Voters won't want an Alabama vs LSU rematch, especially when LSU won at Alabama. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, then hopefully enough human voters put Oklahoma State at #2, that the computers do as well.

A third of the computers already have OKst at #2. And Stanford isn't playing anyone this week either and they have a slim lead in the Human polls.

 

[Rogah]

There is really only one slot open for discussion that Michigan can win. Of the 10 total slots 6 are taken by conference champions, 1 by the SEC runner-up, 1 by the best non-AQ conference champion, and Stanford gets an AQ for being ranked top 4 and not winning their conference. The spot should go to the 2nd place team from the Big 12 or to Boise State.

I just don't see any chance Boise State goes (assuming Houston wins). If OU beats OSU, I think both OU and OSU go which leaves Michigan out. If OU loses, then it's really a choice between K-State and Michigan for that final spot. While I think K-State would deserve it more than Michigna, I can't really argue that one is significantly more deserving than the other and I wouldn't see any big injustice no matter which team was chosen.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

A third of the computers already have OKst at #2. And Stanford isn't playing anyone this week either and they have a slim lead in the Human polls.

Honestly, unless just like there is a 2 team cap, per conference for BCS games, there should be a rule preventing 2 teams from the same conference in the National Championship game.