CFZ Could TE resolve Dak’s problems

Spottswoode · May 11, 2023

I made another post regarding possible explanations for the drop in performance with Dak but likely got carried away with metrics. However, a comment by @DandyDon52 sent me down a rabbit hole which led to an interesting observation.

Instead of providing tables, I’ll give an explanation. If you want to see more data, it’s in the Fun With Numbers thread.

In the 6 years where Dak has been the primary starter (2020 injured), he has had 3 years with an elite QBR

YEAR - QBR - NFL rank…..bold is elite years

2016 - 77.6….#3

2017 - 69.9….#4

2018 - 55.2….#17

2019 - 71.9….#4

2021 - 60.5….#11

2022 - 57.9….#12

The only years Dak has had an elite QBR, he had a 20+% TE target rate:

2016 - 23%

2017 - 20%

2018 - 14%

2019 - 22%

2021 - 14%

2022 - 12%

I looked at targets for all positions but only 1 position equated to an elite QBR for Dak and it did so every time…TE…and more specifically Jason Witten.

2016 - with Witten….…23% TE targets…..elite……#3 QBR in NFL
2017 - with Witten…….20% TE targets…..elite.…..#4 QBR in NFL
2018 - without Witten….14% TE targets…...good..…#19 QBR in NFL
2019 - with Witten…….22% TE targets…..elite…...#4 QBR in NFL
2020 - injured
2021 - without Witten….14% TE target…….good…..#11 QBR in NFL
2022 - without Witten….12% TE target…….good..…#12 QBR in NFL

In 6 years as a primary starter:

Dak has had 3 years with an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of >20% & Jason Witten.
Dak has had 3 years w/o an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of <20% & no Jason Witten.
The only position (WR,TE,RB) that equated to an elite QBR for Dak was the TE position and Witten and it did so every time.

I realize it’s not that simple but I do find it interesting.

I wonder if Dak needs a possession, move the chains security blanket to maximize his effectiveness and can Schoonmaker be that guy.

DandyDon52 · May 11, 2023

surprising the 2 years with shultz were so low % for him. Was it him or coaching and play calling ??
21 and 22 were MM and kellen, the 3 elite years were JG with linehan calling plays!
be interesting to revist this at end of 23 ?

I also tend to belive MM the new OC and jones boys are unaware of any of this !! :muttley:

Blitzen · May 11, 2023

Trophy envy is Dak’s problem bro. Hope he gets it looked at soon.

gimmesix · May 12, 2023

Witten was the ultimately checkdown player and a future Hall of Famer. Gives a QB a lot of security having someone like him out there. I know some fans fuss about him getting you 3 yards when we needed 4, but Witten was reliably open. Someone else needed to stretch the field and get open so Dak didn't have to dump it to Witten.

I wonder if his yards per completion was lower those years where the TE targets were up.

DanA · May 12, 2023

My gut feeling is there are a few factors:

Play action
12 personnel
Good TE targets
Run first looks

Dak is underrated disguising the ball, rolling out, and throwing on the run. IMO he's one of the best in the NFL in these aspects, especially comparatively. He is not one of the best at standing in the pocket and slinging it.

GimmeTheBall! · May 12, 2023

I appreciate your work, but I can't help but wonder tha these metrics and numbers are flowing out into deep space, and what would the extraterrestrials think?

GimmeTheBall! · May 12, 2023

No, lad, it was Dak.

charron · May 12, 2023

Itll take all 3 te's to out produce Schultz.

FuzzyLumpkins · May 12, 2023

We are not running the option/timing routes any more. The pass pro is changing. New OC with the WCO offense.

An important thing to remember in statistics is that stats are representative. When the thing that the stat represents changes the so does the stat. Comparing what Dak does this coming year to past years is not apples to apples.

FuzzyLumpkins · May 12, 2023

I don't see that as being hard. Ferg and Hendershot bit as puppies and both got open. Both of them getting at least 30 catches more or less gets us there.

CowboyoWales · May 12, 2023

Dak likes himself a TE, WCO likes the TE and Schoonmaker likes running the slant route.....sounds feasible.

Schoonmaker isnt the YAC type of highlight reel that the youngsters want....but he fits into scheme and Dak's skillsets.

noshame · May 12, 2023

Good defenses play Dak with CBs off sometimes 10-13 yds. single deep safety and they crowd all the all of the short middle routes. They challenge Dak to throw to the sidelines, he won't, because it often ends badly. You want a vivid example? See the 2021 SF playoff game. Romo in the booth. CBs were playing way off Cooper, Romo was screaming to hit Cooper with a quick slant for a easy 7-10 yds. As the game progressed Romo went nuts because we refused to challenge the defense. I implore all of you to watch that game, because Dak will be facing a variation of that defense until we defeat it.
Sadly I'm not sure Dak is capable because he's clearly lost confidence in certain throws, the minute he overthrows, the ball sails on him.
But again, go back and watch that game, because you'll see the same defense we faced then, showing up a lot this year as Dak has been discovered. We will only be successful against weak defenses which generate no pressure. Like TB in the WC game, or the NYG who had not 1 but 4 walk on DBs with no (0) practice time when we played them.
I'm sure our defense will give us ample opportunities this year, let's hope we can take advantage of them, otherwise the Mike and Dak show will end it's run promptly.

CowboysFaninHouston · May 12, 2023

why is that important? well its simple. there are a few elite TE like Kelce or Andrews. but the reason is that good teams can attack any of the 9 general passing areas (short, intermediate, deep, left, right, middle).
a TE, a good TE can open up the first 1/3 of the field, then if you have players that can attack the intermediate and deep, it then stresses a defense to have to defend all areas and in that case, it gives offense opportunities. somewhere, somebody is open. if you don't have a TE, that can easily attack the short and intermediate area, then allows the defense to focus in rolling to the other areas and your WRs. any defense, if they know what's coming, what you are not capable of can more easily defend you. SF was a great example. once Pollard was out, they knew they can drop into coverage because they didn't fear Zeke and could defend the run with less in the front. doubled CD and forced us to beat them with the rest of the team and nobody could step up. Schultz was taken out of the game. ineffective. not sure what Gallup was doing. Hilton was ineffective, although most point to one play, iffy play at that (because he got open after the ball was thrown deep to CD) and he wasn't present the rest of the game. a Good TE, specially one that can block effectively and find openings in the short zone, forces a defense to dedicate more to the front 7, which in turn opens the intermediate and deeper zones.

Zekeats · May 12, 2023

You did all this work for nothing. Go look at Daks QBR/Rating with and without Amari. Amari made Dak and got him paid and then was the new scape goat. Good day sir.

Hadenough · May 12, 2023

My problem with these ratings is Witten was such a security blanket that was old and slow that defenses gave him those first 3 yards and Dak would throw to him on 3rd and 5 and he would end up 2 yards short.

DeaconMoss · May 12, 2023

Daks best play is when he isn't asked to be the focal point of the offense. Period.

RustyBourneHorse · May 12, 2023

Which is why I think Schoonmacher is here, and I'm here for it. I think that it will prove to be a wise move. I know we need oline, but hey, he can be an extra tackle on run plays, and then get open on passing plays. Win win I say.

Captain-Crash · May 12, 2023

I like dak a lot more when he just hands the ball off. He's not Mahoms, Rodgers, or Brady but he can hand the ball off.

Mannix · May 12, 2023

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Early candidate for post of the day

Jarntt · May 12, 2023

You are right. It did send you down a rabbit hole

CFZ Could TE resolve Dak’s problems

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