CFZ Could TE resolve Dak’s problems

[PAPPYDOG]

I made another post regarding possible explanations for the drop in performance with Dak but likely got carried away with metrics. However, a comment by @DandyDon52 sent me down a rabbit hole which led to an interesting observation.

Instead of providing tables, I’ll give an explanation. If you want to see more data, it’s in the Fun With Numbers thread.

In the 6 years where Dak has been the primary starter (2020 injured), he has had 3 years with an elite QBR

YEAR - QBR - NFL rank…..bold is elite years

2016 - 77.6….#3​

2017 - 69.9….#4​

2018 - 55.2….#17​

2019 - 71.9….#4​

2021 - 60.5….#11​

2022 - 57.9….#12​

The only years Dak has had an elite QBR, he had a 20+% TE target rate:

2016 - 23%​

2017 - 20%​

2018 - 14%​

2019 - 22%​

2021 - 14%​

2022 - 12%​

​

I looked at targets for all positions but only 1 position equated to an elite QBR for Dak and it did so every time…TE…and more specifically Jason Witten.

2016 - with Witten….…23% TE targets…..elite……#3 QBR in NFL
2017 - with Witten…….20% TE targets…..elite.…..#4 QBR in NFL
2018 - without Witten….14% TE targets…...good..…#19 QBR in NFL
2019 - with Witten…….22% TE targets…..elite…...#4 QBR in NFL
2020 - injured
2021 - without Witten….14% TE target…….good…..#11 QBR in NFL
2022 - without Witten….12% TE target…….good..…#12 QBR in NFL

In 6 years as a primary starter:

1. Dak has had 3 years with an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of >20% & Jason Witten.
2. Dak has had 3 years w/o an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of <20% & no Jason Witten.
3. The only position (WR,TE,RB) that equated to an elite QBR for Dak was the TE position and Witten and it did so every time.

I realize it’s not that simple but I do find it interesting.

I wonder if Dak needs a possession, move the chains security blanket to maximize his effectiveness and can Schoonmaker be that guy.

And if the 2 Niner playoff losses didn't convince you Sept. is just around the corner.....

 

[Spottswoode]

Which is why I think Schoonmacher is here, and I'm here for it. I think that it will prove to be a wise move. I know we need oline, but hey, he can be an extra tackle on run plays, and then get open on passing plays. Win win I say.

Thanks for your adult response…I couldn’t agree more.

 

[Spottswoode]

You are right. It did send you down a rabbit hole

Does that bother you?

My analytical nature sends me down many rabbit holes. It’s amazing what one can learn when they are open minded.

 

[Spottswoode]

I know it makes for good talking points but it amazes me how some can’t see…you can’t fix what’s wrong with Dak. No amount of coaching, players or practice will ever make him better. Great guy, says all the right things but he’s to pro QBs what Jason Garrett was to being a head coach and JJ is to being a GM.

Be patient…some of are just slower.

 

[Spottswoode]

Dak's problem is now in San Diego

I hope you are right.

 

[Spottswoode]

And if the 2 Niner playoff losses didn't convince you Sept. is just around the corner.....

I typically don’t take my football advice from an astrophysicist but your point has been duly noted.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

Thanks for your adult response and I appreciate your thoughts. The real question I was pondering is have we potentially neglected a position that has been historically related to Dak’s most effective years.

I think that's what they tried. Hebis not a Seay pick but if he can catch a little, he is a good blocker so it will help them out.

They had it with Witten who could block a little but was a good receiver.

I anticipate seeing a lot more 2 TE sets

 

[PAPPYDOG]

I typically don’t take my football advice from an astrophysicist but your point has been duly noted.

Can't coach limited talent-level players to achieve greatness.
We are going nowhere with Prescott no matter who you surround him with.
P.S. The only exception is that Jesus becomes a member of the Cowboys!!!!

 

[GimmeTheBall!]

And if the 2 Niner playoff losses didn't convince you Sept. is just around the corner.....

In San Fran.
Doesn't seem fair, does it?

 

[doomsday9084]

TE targets, and efficiency, are the product of WRs being able to clear space for them.

There are maybe 5 tight ends in the league who make a difference in the passing game beyond that.

This deserves more attention.

There are very few TE's in the NFL that defenses can't shut down when they choose to. TE's don't deal with double teams or bracketed coverage very much like WR's do. When they do, they generally disappear outside of those top TE's.

TE's are largely just opportunity throws and those opportunities are generated by scheme and other personnel. If you don't have one of those top TE's, you just want one who reliably catches the ball (Schultz did) and can block (Schultz didn't).

 

[khiladi]

“Drop in performance”..

When did Dak become this HOF QB that his garbage play is just an anomaly? How did they guy ever become a legend for accomplishing nothing. Guy has never thrown for 40 TDs even while being top 2 in passing attempts. His 2017 season and first half of 2017 was on par with the most inept QBs in the league.

 

[Hawkeye19]

Good defenses play Dak with CBs off sometimes 10-13 yds. single deep safety and they crowd all the all of the short middle routes. They challenge Dak to throw to the sidelines, he won't, because it often ends badly. You want a vivid example? See the 2021 SF playoff game. Romo in the booth. CBs were playing way off Cooper, Romo was screaming to hit Cooper with a quick slant for a easy 7-10 yds. As the game progressed Romo went nuts because we refused to challenge the defense. I implore all of you to watch that game, because Dak will be facing a variation of that defense until we defeat it.
Sadly I'm not sure Dak is capable because he's clearly lost confidence in certain throws, the minute he overthrows, the ball sails on him.
But again, go back and watch that game, because you'll see the same defense we faced then, showing up a lot this year as Dak has been discovered. We will only be successful against weak defenses which generate no pressure. Like TB in the WC game, or the NYG who had not 1 but 4 walk on DBs with no (0) practice time when we played them.
I'm sure our defense will give us ample opportunities this year, let's hope we can take advantage of them, otherwise the Mike and Dak show will end it's run promptly.

Good post. But another option to force defenses to adjust instead of Dak “throwing them out of it” is to “run them out of that look”.

Our perimeter run blocking was incredibly weak with Schultz as TE1 and Pollard the only threat to
hurt teams on the edge as a RB.

If Schoonmaker is effective as a blocker, and with Deuce as well as TP as runners— we can get on the edge and punish teams that try and sit back and clog the passing lanes.

A better called, more efficient ground game will force teams to respect the running threat— which will then open things back up for a better passing game— especially the PA passing game which is where Dak is at his best.

 

[DandyDon52]

Dak's problem is now in San Diego

uh it is LA now .....poor SD lost their team, was not cost effective or as profitable.
To me it is stupid that both rams and chargers are in LA and play at same stadium, which by the way to me looks like crap.
But is has a lot of seats so more money.

 

[George]

Dak’s reads and mechanics are below average. EOS.

 

[DandyDon52]

Good post. But another option to force defenses to adjust instead of Dak “throwing them out of it” is to “run them out of that look”.

Our perimeter run blocking was incredibly weak with Schultz as TE1 and Pollard the only threat to
hurt teams on the edge as a RB.

If Schoonmaker is effective as a blocker, and with Deuce as well as TP as runners— we can get on the edge and punish teams that try and sit back and clog the passing lanes.

A better called, more efficient ground game will force teams to respect the running threat— which will then open things back up for a better passing game— especially the PA passing game which is where Dak is at his best.

you know I keep seeing this lol, about better blocking by TE, and really most TE are not good blockers, and if they do block ok it wont instantly
make the run game better. It wont hurt, but it isnt going to make much difference.
Teams that run good do so by te's and wr's and linemen ALL blocking good, and with good blocking schemes, good formations etc.

Bad blocking schemes can make your linemen ineffective, and if that happens it doesnt matter what the others do.

 

[Captain-Crash]

can a TE fix what's between his ears?

 

[McKDaddy]

So, having short, safe passes that the defense is baiting you into is the secret to an elite QBR rating for some QB's.

The other correlation is that elite QBR's generated that way = missed playoffs or early playoff exits.

 

[Proof]

I made another post regarding possible explanations for the drop in performance with Dak but likely got carried away with metrics. However, a comment by @DandyDon52 sent me down a rabbit hole which led to an interesting observation.

Instead of providing tables, I’ll give an explanation. If you want to see more data, it’s in the Fun With Numbers thread.

In the 6 years where Dak has been the primary starter (2020 injured), he has had 3 years with an elite QBR

YEAR - QBR - NFL rank…..bold is elite years

2016 - 77.6….#3​

2017 - 69.9….#4​

2018 - 55.2….#17​

2019 - 71.9….#4​

2021 - 60.5….#11​

2022 - 57.9….#12​

The only years Dak has had an elite QBR, he had a 20+% TE target rate:

2016 - 23%​

2017 - 20%​

2018 - 14%​

2019 - 22%​

2021 - 14%​

2022 - 12%​

​

I looked at targets for all positions but only 1 position equated to an elite QBR for Dak and it did so every time…TE…and more specifically Jason Witten.

2016 - with Witten….…23% TE targets…..elite……#3 QBR in NFL
2017 - with Witten…….20% TE targets…..elite.…..#4 QBR in NFL
2018 - without Witten….14% TE targets…...good..…#19 QBR in NFL
2019 - with Witten…….22% TE targets…..elite…...#4 QBR in NFL
2020 - injured
2021 - without Witten….14% TE target…….good…..#11 QBR in NFL
2022 - without Witten….12% TE target…….good..…#12 QBR in NFL

In 6 years as a primary starter:

1. Dak has had 3 years with an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of >20% & Jason Witten.
2. Dak has had 3 years w/o an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of <20% & no Jason Witten.
3. The only position (WR,TE,RB) that equated to an elite QBR for Dak was the TE position and Witten and it did so every time.

I realize it’s not that simple but I do find it interesting.

I wonder if Dak needs a possession, move the chains security blanket to maximize his effectiveness and can Schoonmaker be that guy.

nice deep dive. appreciate the effort

 

[blueblood70]

I made another post regarding possible explanations for the drop in performance with Dak but likely got carried away with metrics. However, a comment by @DandyDon52 sent me down a rabbit hole which led to an interesting observation.

Instead of providing tables, I’ll give an explanation. If you want to see more data, it’s in the Fun With Numbers thread.

In the 6 years where Dak has been the primary starter (2020 injured), he has had 3 years with an elite QBR

YEAR - QBR - NFL rank…..bold is elite years

2016 - 77.6….#3​

2017 - 69.9….#4​

2018 - 55.2….#17​

2019 - 71.9….#4​

2021 - 60.5….#11​

2022 - 57.9….#12​

The only years Dak has had an elite QBR, he had a 20+% TE target rate:

2016 - 23%​

2017 - 20%​

2018 - 14%​

2019 - 22%​

2021 - 14%​

2022 - 12%​

​

I looked at targets for all positions but only 1 position equated to an elite QBR for Dak and it did so every time…TE…and more specifically Jason Witten.

2016 - with Witten….…23% TE targets…..elite……#3 QBR in NFL
2017 - with Witten…….20% TE targets…..elite.…..#4 QBR in NFL
2018 - without Witten….14% TE targets…...good..…#19 QBR in NFL
2019 - with Witten…….22% TE targets…..elite…...#4 QBR in NFL
2020 - injured
2021 - without Witten….14% TE target…….good…..#11 QBR in NFL
2022 - without Witten….12% TE target…….good..…#12 QBR in NFL

In 6 years as a primary starter:

1. Dak has had 3 years with an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of >20% & Jason Witten.
2. Dak has had 3 years w/o an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of <20% & no Jason Witten.
3. The only position (WR,TE,RB) that equated to an elite QBR for Dak was the TE position and Witten and it did so every time.

I realize it’s not that simple but I do find it interesting.

I wonder if Dak needs a possession, move the chains security blanket to maximize his effectiveness and can Schoonmaker be that guy.

NO LOL you left out the OL and the run game far more important to HELP dak..he doesn't need help he needs his teammates and coaches to do their jobs consistently so he can do his.. the #1 issue against the better defenses had been in all of the last 3 losses in the playoffs and some RS losses.. the OL is not physical they cannot establish a run game or they get stood up at the line and pushed back.. they have not been good when needed the most. Hard to play QB or RB with an OL that gets whipped against the better ds you see in the playoffs the deeper you go.

tipped and rushed passes, no holes, having to run early in a play sure they avoid sacks so instantly the fans think great OL, umm no its not, not when its most needed.

so OL #1 , run game coaches, and Wrs all before TE is a key indicator of success vs inconsistent play IMHO..

daks not broke, the offense was and that why Moore lost his job and we have a new OLC, OC, RBC, and MM taking over play calls,.

 

[Cumart21]

A good offensive scheme with timing and open receivers will fix Dak's "problems". Watch the Martz review of Dak, which confirms my opinion of our passing game issues.