CFZ Could TE resolve Dak’s problems

[RonnieT24]

The entire premise of this post is idiotic. "Hey, did yall know having a really good reliable tight end who knows how to get open, catches the ball and doesn't volleyball the ball to the other team helps the QB?" Who knew? We should take this scintillating analysis to the TV networks!!

 

[quickccc]

While Dak certainly needs to do his part. ..we have to have certain player personnel ..and even coaches - to do their own part too.

We cannot have receivers running bad routes, blowing assignments, not contesting the ball, and having passes bouncing off their hands and chests, and right into DBs hands for INTs.
I've seen it come from the TEs to the WRs,.. sorry but Gallup is the worst of 'em.

He's definitely not the only one, but i cannot explain how many times he's cut off and short-stopped routes to where the CB is far more in position for an INT, than Gallup for the reception.
Gallup does it way too often.

We needed pass catchers that can separate vs coverage, as well as be reliable route runners and sure handed.
Give Dak that extra edge to have the best chance to succeed.

Acquiring Brandin Cooks, who has been one of the premiere speed WRs in the NFL, is one of those extra edges that will help mightily.
We do need Gallup to regain his playing speed again from ACL recovery.
We will need other supporting cast to help (Tolbert, Schoon, Ferguson, Hendershot) we will need new emerging cast in case of injury emergency.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

TE targets, and efficiency, are the product of WRs being able to clear space for them.

There are maybe 5 tight ends in the league who make a difference in the passing game beyond that.

 

[speedkilz88]

Don't forget helping the run game helps Dak. Witten was a much better blocker than Schultz.

 

[morat1959]

I know it makes for good talking points but it amazes me how some can’t see…you can’t fix what’s wrong with Dak. No amount of coaching, players or practice will ever make him better. Great guy, says all the right things but he’s to pro QBs what Jason Garrett was to being a head coach and JJ is to being a GM.

 

[stilltheguru]

Good defenses play Dak with CBs off sometimes 10-13 yds. single deep safety and they crowd all the all of the short middle routes. They challenge Dak to throw to the sidelines, he won't, because it often ends badly. You want a vivid example? See the 2021 SF playoff game. Romo in the booth. CBs were playing way off Cooper, Romo was screaming to hit Cooper with a quick slant for a easy 7-10 yds. As the game progressed Romo went nuts because we refused to challenge the defense. I implore all of you to watch that game, because Dak will be facing a variation of that defense until we defeat it.
Sadly I'm not sure Dak is capable because he's clearly lost confidence in certain throws, the minute he overthrows, the ball sails on him.
But again, go back and watch that game, because you'll see the same defense we faced then, showing up a lot this year as Dak has been discovered. We will only be successful against weak defenses which generate no pressure. Like TB in the WC game, or the NYG who had not 1 but 4 walk on DBs with no (0) practice time when we played them.
I'm sure our defense will give us ample opportunities this year, let's hope we can take advantage of them, otherwise the Mike and Dak show will end it's run promptly.

Interesting post

 

[Spottswoode]

surprising the 2 years with shultz were so low % for him. Was it him or coaching and play calling ??
21 and 22 were MM and kellen, the 3 elite years were JG with linehan calling plays!
be interesting to revist this at end of 23 ?

I also tend to belive MM the new OC and jones boys are unaware of any of this !!

Thanks for your adult response. This site needs more posters like you.

 

[Spottswoode]

Trophy envy is Dak’s problem bro. Hope he gets it looked at soon.

I don’t know what that means but it’s quite eloquent. Is that Shakespeare?

 

[nalam]

I made another post regarding possible explanations for the drop in performance with Dak but likely got carried away with metrics. However, a comment by @DandyDon52 sent me down a rabbit hole which led to an interesting observation.

Instead of providing tables, I’ll give an explanation. If you want to see more data, it’s in the Fun With Numbers thread.

In the 6 years where Dak has been the primary starter (2020 injured), he has had 3 years with an elite QBR

YEAR - QBR - NFL rank…..bold is elite years

2016 - 77.6….#3​

2017 - 69.9….#4​

2018 - 55.2….#17​

2019 - 71.9….#4​

2021 - 60.5….#11​

2022 - 57.9….#12​

The only years Dak has had an elite QBR, he had a 20+% TE target rate:

2016 - 23%​

2017 - 20%​

2018 - 14%​

2019 - 22%​

2021 - 14%​

2022 - 12%​

​

I looked at targets for all positions but only 1 position equated to an elite QBR for Dak and it did so every time…TE…and more specifically Jason Witten.

2016 - with Witten….…23% TE targets…..elite……#3 QBR in NFL
2017 - with Witten…….20% TE targets…..elite.…..#4 QBR in NFL
2018 - without Witten….14% TE targets…...good..…#19 QBR in NFL
2019 - with Witten…….22% TE targets…..elite…...#4 QBR in NFL
2020 - injured
2021 - without Witten….14% TE target…….good…..#11 QBR in NFL
2022 - without Witten….12% TE target…….good..…#12 QBR in NFL

In 6 years as a primary starter:

1. Dak has had 3 years with an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of >20% & Jason Witten.
2. Dak has had 3 years w/o an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of <20% & no Jason Witten.
3. The only position (WR,TE,RB) that equated to an elite QBR for Dak was the TE position and Witten and it did so every time.

I realize it’s not that simple but I do find it interesting.

I wonder if Dak needs a possession, move the chains security blanket to maximize his effectiveness and can Schoonmaker be that guy.

It is the nr of TE targets , elite category is important, while Dalton S got into favor with Dak and caught many balls , because of not very efficient run game , the 3rd down distances might be greater and even a completion would not be good for first. ( LOL, that was one of our pet beef with Witten also in the latter years )

 

[Spottswoode]

Witten was the ultimately checkdown player and a future Hall of Famer. Gives a QB a lot of security having someone like him out there. I know some fans fuss about him getting you 3 yards when we needed 4, but Witten was reliably open. Someone else needed to stretch the field and get open so Dak didn't have to dump it to Witten.

I wonder if his yards per completion was lower those years where the TE targets were up.

I agree and appreciate your adult response. Interesting, I thought the same thing on the YPC numbers and looked them up. I don’t remember the exact numbers but if my memory is correct, I believe that in the two years that Dak didn’t have Witten, his YPC were actually close to 1 yard lower. That wasn’t what I was expecting but I don’t know how much meaning it has either.

 

[Spottswoode]

My gut feeling is there are a few factors:

• Play action
• 12 personnel
• Good TE targets
• Run first looks

Dak is underrated disguising the ball, rolling out, and throwing on the run. IMO he's one of the best in the NFL in these aspects, especially comparatively. He is not one of the best at standing in the pocket and slinging it.

I agree and I appreciate your adult response. I never intended the post to suggest the TE was the only answer. The purpose was simply to share a finding that I found interesting. I think you make valid points.

 

[Spottswoode]

I appreciate your work, but I can't help but wonder tha these metrics and numbers are flowing out into deep space, and what would the extraterrestrials think?

Are you speaking from deep space now. I have no idea what this means but it’s kind of cute. I’ll assume it’s an attempt at being clever.

 

[Spottswoode]

We are not running the option/timing routes any more. The pass pro is changing. New OC with the WCO offense.

An important thing to remember in statistics is that stats are representative. When the thing that the stat represents changes the so does the stat. Comparing what Dak does this coming year to past years is not apples to apples.

Thanks for the thoughts and I appreciate your adult response. As someone who uses statistics daily, I’m familiar with limitations of drawing conclusions from inconsistent data sets. The point was more relative to having reliable check down options, chain movers, and positive down and distance producers.

 

[BHendri5]

I made another post regarding possible explanations for the drop in performance with Dak but likely got carried away with metrics. However, a comment by @DandyDon52 sent me down a rabbit hole which led to an interesting observation.

Instead of providing tables, I’ll give an explanation. If you want to see more data, it’s in the Fun With Numbers thread.

In the 6 years where Dak has been the primary starter (2020 injured), he has had 3 years with an elite QBR

YEAR - QBR - NFL rank…..bold is elite years

2016 - 77.6….#3​

2017 - 69.9….#4​

2018 - 55.2….#17​

2019 - 71.9….#4​

2021 - 60.5….#11​

2022 - 57.9….#12​

The only years Dak has had an elite QBR, he had a 20+% TE target rate:

2016 - 23%​

2017 - 20%​

2018 - 14%​

2019 - 22%​

2021 - 14%​

2022 - 12%​

​

I looked at targets for all positions but only 1 position equated to an elite QBR for Dak and it did so every time…TE…and more specifically Jason Witten.

2016 - with Witten….…23% TE targets…..elite……#3 QBR in NFL
2017 - with Witten…….20% TE targets…..elite.…..#4 QBR in NFL
2018 - without Witten….14% TE targets…...good..…#19 QBR in NFL
2019 - with Witten…….22% TE targets…..elite…...#4 QBR in NFL
2020 - injured
2021 - without Witten….14% TE target…….good…..#11 QBR in NFL
2022 - without Witten….12% TE target…….good..…#12 QBR in NFL

In 6 years as a primary starter:

1. Dak has had 3 years with an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of >20% & Jason Witten.
2. Dak has had 3 years w/o an elite QBR. In each of those years he had a TE target rate of <20% & no Jason Witten.
3. The only position (WR,TE,RB) that equated to an elite QBR for Dak was the TE position and Witten and it did so every time.

I realize it’s not that simple but I do find it interesting.

I wonder if Dak needs a possession, move the chains security blanket to maximize his effectiveness and can Schoonmaker be that guy.

Dak's problem is now in San Diego

 

[Spottswoode]

Dak likes himself a TE, WCO likes the TE and Schoonmaker likes running the slant route.....sounds feasible.

Schoonmaker isnt the YAC type of highlight reel that the youngsters want....but he fits into scheme and Dak's skillsets.

I appreciate your adult response and I am cautiously optimistic that the Cowboys will provide the resources to help Dak be his most effective self.

 

[Spottswoode]

why is that important? well its simple. there are a few elite TE like Kelce or Andrews. but the reason is that good teams can attack any of the 9 general passing areas (short, intermediate, deep, left, right, middle).
a TE, a good TE can open up the first 1/3 of the field, then if you have players that can attack the intermediate and deep, it then stresses a defense to have to defend all areas and in that case, it gives offense opportunities. somewhere, somebody is open. if you don't have a TE, that can easily attack the short and intermediate area, then allows the defense to focus in rolling to the other areas and your WRs. any defense, if they know what's coming, what you are not capable of can more easily defend you. SF was a great example. once Pollard was out, they knew they can drop into coverage because they didn't fear Zeke and could defend the run with less in the front. doubled CD and forced us to beat them with the rest of the team and nobody could step up. Schultz was taken out of the game. ineffective. not sure what Gallup was doing. Hilton was ineffective, although most point to one play, iffy play at that (because he got open after the ball was thrown deep to CD) and he wasn't present the rest of the game. a Good TE, specially one that can block effectively and find openings in the short zone, forces a defense to dedicate more to the front 7, which in turn opens the intermediate and deeper zones.

Thanks for your adult response and I appreciate your thoughts. The real question I was pondering is have we potentially neglected a position that has been historically related to Dak’s most effective years.

 

[Spottswoode]

You did all this work for nothing. Go look at Daks QBR/Rating with and without Amari. Amari made Dak and got him paid and then was the new scape goat. Good day sir.

First off, I appreciate your kindness and concern for how I spend my time. Just know that I will look for opportunities to pay it forward.

Anyhoo, enough with the mushy stuff, let’s do a quick check of your claim regarding Dak’s performance with Cooper.
Here are the numbers I shared:

2016 - 77.6….#3
2017 - 69.9….#4
2018 - 55.2….#17
2019 - 71.9….#4
2021 - 60.5….#11 54.6
2022 - 57.9….#12

First, let me point out that I made a mistake for 2021. It should be 54.6 v 60.5. My apologies but I have a sneaky suspicion you didn’t look at the numbers before posting, even though you told me that I should. By the way, I provided the numbers in the post.

Dak & Cooper played together from ‘18-‘21. Because I don’t want to be accused of being biased, let’s add a caveat to further support to your claim.

Although Dak & Cooper played <5 games together in ‘20, Dak had a pre injury QBR of ~73. Let’s assume Dak didn’t get hurt and continued that pace for the remaining 2/3rds of the season. That would add an additional elite year in support of your claim.

Using that caveat, Dak had an elite QBR in 2 of 4 Cooper seasons. For context, Dak had an elite QBR both years prior to Cooper’s arrival. Interestingly, in the 2 Cooper seasons that Dak wasn’t elite, Dak had the 2 lowest QBR seasons of his career.

I won’t include the numbers excluding the caveat but I’m sure you can guess that it doesn’t get better.

 

[Spottswoode]

My problem with these ratings is Witten was such a security blanket that was old and slow that defenses gave him those first 3 yards and Dak would throw to him on 3rd and 5 and he would end up 2 yards short.

Thanks for your adult response. I thought the same thing when I was looking at the numbers and it may in fact, be true. When I dug deeper, I was surprised to find that Dak actually had a higher YPC in his years with Witten than without. I’m in no way suggesting that Witten was the reason for the higher YPC. But I wasn’t expecting the numbers to be higher while Witten remained one of the higher targeted receivers.

 

[Spottswoode]

My problem with these ratings is Witten was such a security blanket that was old and slow that defenses gave him those first 3 yards and Dak would throw to him on 3rd and 5 and he would end up 2 yards short.

I appreciate your response. The thing about the QBR ratings is they look at overall QB performance. They incorporate a more complete picture of the QB’s and include a variety of elements. That is why I prefer QBR for QB’s.

I focused specifically on TE in the post because that was the only position that directly correlated with Dak’s best performing years and it did so every time. I felt the sample sizes (3 years with >20% targets v 3 years with <15% targets) might be large enough to sample size to draw some conclusions. It just so happens that all 3 years with a >20% target rate happened to be the Witten years. I have no way to tell if there is any significance and if there is, whether it’s related specifically to Witten, the target %, or just coincidence. Outside of a 20+% target rate every year with Witten, Dak has never had a TE target rate above 14%.

 

[Spottswoode]

Daks best play is when he isn't asked to be the focal point of the offense. Period.

So firm and definitive…I like it.