Cowboys expected to lock up Sean Lee soon

[Eskimo]

The key to me with the Lee deal is the Cowboys have to keep in mind where Lee ranks as an MLB in this league and how much of a discount should be built into the base salary and guaranteed money based on a history of below average durability.

During his two years he has missed substantial portions of 14 games including missing all of 12 whole games. This accounts for about 40% of all games since he was named a starter. That just can't be ignored. The other thing that has to be considered is that even though he has only been in the league 3 years he will be 27 this year which is a bit on the old side for his amount of experience.

Most of the best MLB's in the game make somewhere between $7-8.5M/yr. The tier below makes more in the $5-7M/yr range. I think Lee belongs in the tier below based on lack of history of sustained productivity.

Now the question arises of how much guaranteed money to give him. I think we've been burned too many times giving extensions to injured guys to be very comfortable with giving him a large amount of guaranteed money. I'd probably not want to go above $8M or so. I'd consider giving him the ability to earn more with the contract with incentives based on productivity that is correlated with games started to put him in the $6M/yr range and some extra for big plays to let him get into the elite range if he makes lots of big plays.

I'd suggest 5 years and $25M with $8M guranteed, bonuses based on games played or some correlate like tackles that add 1M/yr and bonuses based on turnovers created that also add on 1M/yr. So he'd get overall 5 years 30M so long as he played about 12 games per year (let's make the bonus based on 100 tackles) and can earn more based on superlative levels of play.

I think it'd be fair to all sides considering what Lee has accomplished and what he has failed to accomplish.

With the old collection of stars ageing and fading (Witten, Ware, Rat, Miles, Free, Spencer) and a new set of stars starting to enter into second contract negotiations (Lee, Dez, Carter, Murray) we need to keep an eye on salary cap management to ensure we have the pieces we want going into the future.

 

[pgreptom]

The key to me with the Lee deal is the Cowboys have to keep in mind where Lee ranks as an MLB in this league and how much of a discount should be built into the base salary and guaranteed money based on a history of below average durability.

During his two years he has missed substantial portions of 14 games including missing all of 12 whole games. This accounts for about 40% of all games since he was named a starter. That just can't be ignored. The other thing that has to be considered is that even though he has only been in the league 3 years he will be 27 this year which is a bit on the old side for his amount of experience.

Most of the best MLB's in the game make somewhere between $7-8.5M/yr. The tier below makes more in the $5-7M/yr range. I think Lee belongs in the tier below based on lack of history of sustained productivity.

Now the question arises of how much guaranteed money to give him. I think we've been burned too many times giving extensions to injured guys to be very comfortable with giving him a large amount of guaranteed money. I'd probably not want to go above $8M or so. I'd consider giving him the ability to earn more with the contract with incentives based on productivity that is correlated with games started to put him in the $6M/yr range and some extra for big plays to let him get into the elite range if he makes lots of big plays.

I'd suggest 5 years and $25M with $8M guranteed, bonuses based on games played or some correlate like tackles that add 1M/yr and bonuses based on turnovers created that also add on 1M/yr. So he'd get overall 5 years 30M so long as he played about 12 games per year (let's make the bonus based on 100 tackles) and can earn more based on superlative levels of play.

I think it'd be fair to all sides considering what Lee has accomplished and what he has failed to accomplish.

With the old collection of stars ageing and fading (Witten, Ware, Rat, Miles, Free, Spencer) and a new set of stars starting to enter into second contract negotiations (Lee, Dez, Carter, Murray) we need to keep an eye on salary cap management to ensure we have the pieces we want going into the future.

If the Boys land Lee for 5/25 with 8m guaranteed... Jerry Jones deserves owner/GM of the year.

 

[Eskimo]

If the Boys land Lee for 5/25 with 8m guaranteed... Jerry Jones deserves owner/GM of the year.

I agree that it will be a tall order because we are so used to Jerry overpaying.

The deal converts to 5 years 30M so long as he can play an average of 12 games per year.

The deal would convert into top tier of the league if he generates lots of whatever you want to look for - Tackles, turnovers, % of snaps played, Pro Bowl berth.

All the other top MLBs that earn $6M/yr or more have Pro Bowl credentials which Lee lacks. He is not in that tier yet so he shouldn't be paid in that tier.

I'd argue that's a fair deal for a player who has been injured significantly in 4 of his last 5 starting years. In those 5 years he missed nearly 2 complete seasons overall. There are 4 different major injuries in that timeframe: MCL, ACL, wrist ligament and toe tendon. You ignore that history on your own peril.

I might even argue that Lee is a player we could afford to lose if one of the backups shows he can step up without too much loss of production.

A big part of me thinks Carter is the better player to lock up at the WLB going forward with his crazy ability to hunt ballcarriers down all over the field. He missed 0 tackles in 12 games last year - that is an unbelievable stat.

 

[SportsGuru80]

I definitely would make Lee a high priority but I wouldn't put huge money into him because of his injury issues. I think he is a terrific player so he is worth keeping though.

 

[Eskimo]

I definitely would make Lee a high priority but I wouldn't put huge money into him because of his injury issues. I think he is a terrific player so he is worth keeping though.

Yes, he is absolutely worth keeping at the right price.

He is a good football player but he isn't an elite pass rusher or a shutdown corner. He is definitely very replaceable. You can routinely get very good MLBs in the second round. There is no need to give a mega-contract here to a guy who is just not reliable health-wise. Look at how the fanbase has turned against Miles after he got paid and got injured. It would be the same with Lee. We made the mistake of giving Miles a huge contract before he proved he could play with good durability and are now locked into a deal we wish we hadn't made on a guy who is replaceable as a #2 WR. There was no need to give him an elite WR pay package at the time we gave it. The same is true here.

You keep Lee if you can but you don't pay him as though he is one of the best in the league. He just hasn't proven it yet and he doesn't play an impact position.

 

[Nightman]

The key to me with the Lee deal is the Cowboys have to keep in mind where Lee ranks as an MLB in this league and how much of a discount should be built into the base salary and guaranteed money based on a history of below average durability.

During his two years he has missed substantial portions of 14 games including missing all of 12 whole games. This accounts for about 40% of all games since he was named a starter. That just can't be ignored. The other thing that has to be considered is that even though he has only been in the league 3 years he will be 27 this year which is a bit on the old side for his amount of experience.

Most of the best MLB's in the game make somewhere between $7-8.5M/yr. The tier below makes more in the $5-7M/yr range. I think Lee belongs in the tier below based on lack of history of sustained productivity.

Now the question arises of how much guaranteed money to give him. I think we've been burned too many times giving extensions to injured guys to be very comfortable with giving him a large amount of guaranteed money. I'd probably not want to go above $8M or so. I'd consider giving him the ability to earn more with the contract with incentives based on productivity that is correlated with games started to put him in the $6M/yr range and some extra for big plays to let him get into the elite range if he makes lots of big plays.

I'd suggest 5 years and $25M with $8M guranteed, bonuses based on games played or some correlate like tackles that add 1M/yr and bonuses based on turnovers created that also add on 1M/yr. So he'd get overall 5 years 30M so long as he played about 12 games per year (let's make the bonus based on 100 tackles) and can earn more based on superlative levels of play.

I think it'd be fair to all sides considering what Lee has accomplished and what he has failed to accomplish.

With the old collection of stars ageing and fading (Witten, Ware, Rat, Miles, Free, Spencer) and a new set of stars starting to enter into second contract negotiations (Lee, Dez, Carter, Murray) we need to keep an eye on salary cap management to ensure we have the pieces we want going into the future.

Lee hasn't made really big money yet, so if you offer him a check for 8-10m it would pretty hard to turn down, especially with his injury history. Maybe give him an opt out after 4 years so if he is performing a top level, he can get paid again sooner. Both sides need to assume a little bit of the risk.

 

[SportsGuru80]

Yes, he is absolutely worth keeping at the right price.

He is a good football player but he isn't an elite pass rusher or a shutdown corner. He is definitely very replaceable. You can routinely get very good MLBs in the second round. There is no need to give a mega-contract here to a guy who is just not reliable health-wise. Look at how the fanbase has turned against Miles after he got paid and got injured. It would be the same with Lee. We made the mistake of giving Miles a huge contract before he proved he could play with good durability and are now locked into a deal we wish we hadn't made on a guy who is replaceable as a #2 WR. There was no need to give him an elite WR pay package at the time we gave it. The same is true here.

You keep Lee if you can but you don't pay him as though he is one of the best in the league. He just hasn't proven it yet and he doesn't play an impact position.

Well said... I agree.