For those arguing the Cowboys screwed up by not signing Dak earlier, a couple of points to ponder other than the obvious that it takes two to not sign. I'm not saying in retrospect it was the smart move, but from a cap perspective it may end up the better option due to what will happen with the cap over the next few years.
As we know, football salaries in Dallas are only about the cap hit because the actual money paid out is meaningless from Jerry's pockets. So focusing only on the year to year cap, 2021 is 100% the problem year and by far the issue for every team. I don't think anyone can even attempt to argue with that if they understand the cap. After that it will go up considerably. No one could have foreseen this happening, but if we sign Dak next offseason, even though his deal will be bigger, it helps us to keep his 2021 cap hit lower, since year one of these mega-deals is always the lowest cap hit. So year 1 of a bigger contract will have a much lower cap hit than year 3 (if he signed in 2019) of a slightly smaller deal. Getting back to 2021, his 2021 cap hit will now (assuming he is signed) be lower than if he were signed two years ago and after that the tv money will cover 2022 and on when it will be higher. And on top of that, the way we did it also helps our carryover more than if we signed him two years ago. He only counted $2M against the 2019 cap and if he signed a new contract (assuming they didn't touch his 2019 base salary) that would have gone up by about $6M (1/5th of his SB). So we have that $6M to carry over to 2021. I think 2020 would have been about the same cap hit as his $31M current hit if we signed him in 2019 so I'm assuming a wash for that year. So plus $6M from 2019-20 and a lower cap hit in 2021 both lead to a better cap situation in 2021 which is the issue for teams right now. Further, if signed in 2019, we likely would need to restructure him in 2021 to get under the cap which would push back so much dead money for him since he would only have had 2 or 3 years on his deal.
Love him or hate him there were legitimate questions before last season. Yes he had proven (at least in my mind) to be a franchise QB, but after 2017 and 2018 I was fine with getting another chance to watch him before locking him up. I also would have been totally fine locking him up so I'm happy either way. After his big year and inflation at the QB position, that definitely raised his value but IMO that is offset to some degree by the chance of him suffering a career ending injury that would have left us with a $34M black hole in our salary cap every year. Yes, $5M more per year in the long run isn't a good thing, but what if he signed that deal and suffered a career ending injury? That is why players hate the tag and teams love it and while that value doesn't show up because he didn't get hurt (Thank God) you can't ignore it is part of evaluating giving a guy a deal or not.
Personally, I hope Dak goes out and wins an MVP and a SB and ends up with a 4 year $200M deal and give you even more fuel for the "we should have signed him" fire!!!