Cowboys hire 3rd data geek this offseason, but this one's a baller

[CCBoy]

Agree 100%.

But why coaches need good statistical analysts on their staff is lost on many people. It has to do with the quality and relevance of the data. Analytics is data driven, but which statistical measures are relevant, and which are not. For example, when used in personnel selection:

• Arm length is correlated to height, and arm length is very statistically relevant when projecting success for pass rushers and offensive tackles.
• 40 time speed is very relevant for wide receivers, and defensive backs, but almost a non-factor in evaluating quarterbacks.
• A good 3-cone time may be more important for some positions than others.
• Bench press repetitions is not very relevant to how successful a running back will be.
• No one wants to draft a 250 lb. offensive lineman, no matter how agile he may be, or how skilled he may be at using leverage.

The job of the data analyst is not just to crunch the numbers. It is to figure out which numbers are important to crunch, and what data should be left out of the equation. It is not intuitively obvious to the casual observer why a particular statistic doesn't matter, and should be excluded from consideration.

I remember back in 1998, I decided to create my own system for power ranking teams in the NFL during the season. The difficulty was in determining which statistics to measure. It took me 6 years to finally develop a system that was reasonably accurate. That only happened when I dropped all statistics from special teams, which turn out to be only marginally important, and added in penalty yardage for and against a team. Then "suddenly", I had a formula which used 12 basic statistical measures and was > 90% accurate when predicting which teams would make the playoffs. Back in the 2013 season, I was living in Denver, when the Broncos ended up playing the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. A lot of my co-workers asked me who I thought would win. Statistically, it wasn't even close. The Seahawks were far superior to the Broncos, and they proved it in the Super Bowl, much to the chagrin of my neighbors and co-workers in Denver.

I published my own Power Rankings each year on the old DC.com website from 2004 - 2017 for 14 straight years. A lot of people wanted to argue the numbers every season, but after spending 6 years from 1998 - 2003 figuring out what the right numbers to use were, my system consistently out-performed people's gut feelings. The only real glitch was I never could figure out how to incorporate special teams data. One year, the Chargers had both the #1 offense and #1 defense, and yet missed the playoffs due to atrocious special teams play - which just goes to show you that even the best system is not 100% accurate.

Bottom Line: knowing which data to use is highly important. That's why many people "don't trust the numbers." It is because they don't know how to figure out which numbers matter, and what data is irrelevant.

Thank you for sacrificing effort to grow our chosen sports knowledge. Good stuff, really.

 

[Toro9]

Pennsylvania all the way huh?

 

[Jumbo075]

Thank you for sacrificing effort to grow our chosen sports knowledge. Good stuff, really.

Other Dallas Cowboys fans have been on me for years because I consistently rank CB Jourdan Lewis low. In his final year in college, Lewis might have been the best CB in the NCAA. But he lasted until the 3rd round in the 2017 draft for two main reasons: his lack of size and speed. Lewis is only 5'10", 188 lbs, and ran a 4.54 time in the 40 yard dash. He is visibly slower on the field than other cornerbacks and wide receivers, and lacks the straight line speed needed to recover when he makes a bad decision on the field.

Having said that, Lewis may be the most technically gifted and most instinctual cornerback on the Cowboys roster - which has allowed him to hang on in the NFL, and even get a 2nd contract with the Cowboys. His size limits him to being a slot receiver, but against 3rd WR's in the NFL, his foot quickness allows him to efficiently cover other slot receivers, who many times are also quick, but lack straight line speed. I don't hate Lewis, but there is a big reason that former Cowboys CB Anthony Brown consistently beat him out: Brown was among the fastest players on the field with 4.35 speed. Many fans hated me for pointing that out, but everyone has limitations. DaRon Bland, who wasn't even invited to the NFL combine, did well when replacing Lewis a year ago. Bland has a 4.46 40 time, which is not as good as Brown's, but better than Lewis by 0.08 seconds. It remains to be seen if Lewis's superior instincts can win him back the job as the starting slot CB for the team. But if either Gilmore or Diggs get injured, Bland (6' tall) has the size and speed to play outside, and so Lewis remains an important member of the Cowboys defensive roster - even if it means he's the 4th CB on the depth chart.

Bottom line: Lewis is among the best in the NFL in raw natural ability, and understanding of how to play CB. But his size and speed limits him. Statistics matter.

 

[shabazz]

John Park and Bill Britt will restore our glory.

They won’t be able to get over the hump without the wisdom, fierceness and courage of Sarah Mallepalle

 

[gtb1943]

If you think he's spending time interviewing and hiring analysts you're out of your mind

What part of final responsibility do you refuse to get?

 

[CCBoy]

Other Dallas Cowboys fans have been on me for years because I consistently rank CB Jourdan Lewis low. In his final year in college, Lewis might have been the best CB in the NCAA. But he lasted until the 3rd round in the 2017 draft for two main reasons: his lack of size and speed. Lewis is only 5'10", 188 lbs, and ran a 4.54 time in the 40 yard dash. He is visibly slower on the field than other cornerbacks and wide receivers, and lacks the straight line speed needed to recover when he makes a bad decision on the field.

Having said that, Lewis may be the most technically gifted and most instinctual cornerback on the Cowboys roster - which has allowed him to hang on in the NFL, and even get a 2nd contract with the Cowboys. His size limits him to being a slot receiver, but against 3rd WR's in the NFL, his foot quickness allows him to efficiently cover other slot receivers, who many times are also quick, but lack straight line speed. I don't hate Lewis, but there is a big reason that former Cowboys CB Anthony Brown consistently beat him out: Brown was among the fastest players on the field with 4.35 speed. Many fans hated me for pointing that out, but everyone has limitations. DaRon Bland, who wasn't even invited to the NFL combine, did well when replacing Lewis a year ago. Bland has a 4.46 40 time, which is not as good as Brown's, but better than Lewis by 0.08 seconds. It remains to be seen if Lewis's superior instincts can win him back the job as the starting slot CB for the team. But if either Gilmore or Diggs get injured, Bland (6' tall) has the size and speed to play outside, and so Lewis remains an important member of the Cowboys defensive roster - even if it means he's the 4th CB on the depth chart.

Bottom line: Lewis is among the best in the NFL in raw natural ability, and understanding of how to play CB. But his size and speed limits him. Statistics matter.

Talk all one wishes to me on observations. I'll listen...

On size, strength grows at the position...look at Darrel Green and he lasted to the age of 42. But he was very fast and on the forefront of confrontational and aggressive play... also, he was from Texas A&I when it was producing top level secondary, year ... after year ... after year. A bunch of Pro Bowlers in the secondary.

Thanks for sharing. As far as Lewis, if the player commits completely, there is enough available help and guidance for him to grow.

Where there is true talent, it can also be developed. It is a team sport.

 

[Mac_MaloneV1]

What part of final responsibility do you refuse to get?

lmao

You're right. Every time a player pulls a hamstring, Jerry is responsible.

 

[Bobhaze]

Analytics professionals don't make decisions. Their job is to give better information to the decision makers.

I am in a similar situation in one of my roles. In addition to implementing large building renovation projects, I analyze our existing portfolio of 176 buildings to determine which buildings are in most dire need of renovation, which buildings should be torn down, and what new buildings we need to meet organizational goals. That is only about 10% of what I do, but it is an important 10%. Based on my recommendations, we have cancelled renovations for 3 buildings already, moved a data center out of a building to an off-shore facility, and demolished and removed three buildings. I am recommending the demolishing of at least 3 more buildings on our campus, and I sit on the design teams for new buildings. (another 10% of my responsibilities.)

With all that, I don't make final funding decisions. But just to illustrate, I was given $9 Million to renovate an existing old building. Based on my analysis, I determined I really needed $28 million to properly renovate the systems in the building, and then would still have an old building not really designed to be functionally useful for the existing occupants. The building is only worth $56 million, so I recommended they tear it down instead of wasting $9 million on renovations. I didn't make the decision, but they did opt to take away the $9 million they gave me, and are in the process of planning a new building to be erected some time in the next 5 years.

This is the value of analytics. It helps decision makers with making better informed positive decisions, and helps avoid poor decisions being made.

Analytics doesn't run the show, in the same way that I don't make funding decisions for my organization. But it helps decision makers get better information, so that they can make better decisions - in the Cowboys case on what plays to call in certain situations against certain opponents. If you have a problem with that, you're just ignorant, or worse - you want the Cowboys to keep making the ignorant decisions that have kept them from winning championships the last 3 decades.

This an excellent “real world” description of how analytics work. It doesn’t make decisions. It helps the real decision makers make them with as much relevant and insightful information as possible.

Analytics doesn’t do the coaching. But in the right hands of a good coach, it makes them even better.

 

[conner01]

I hope these analytics experts can run block.

That’s gonna be the key to the season to me
Can we run the ball?

 

[CCBoy]

That’s gonna be the key to the season to me
Can we run the ball?

And a realistic 20 yard completion effectiveness.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

C'mon...he is a strong owner, not stupid, and trusts his staffs/coaches. At least hit in a general current target area...

Oh, I get it now...when one grows up he wants to be a brand new pair of bluejeans.

Strong owners are strong enough people to let OTHER people call the shots if they are better. Strong owners don't get rid of talented coaches, and abstain from hiring Strong GMs because they don't want to lose any of the credit or limelight.

That's just my opinion

 

[Jumbo075]

Talk all one wishes to me on observations. I'll listen...

On size, strength grows at the position...look at Darrel Green and he lasted to the age of 42. But he was very fast and on the forefront of confrontational and aggressive play... also, he was from Texas A&I when it was producing top level secondary, year ... after year ... after year. A bunch of Pro Bowlers in the secondary.

Thanks for sharing. As far as Lewis, if the player commits completely, there is enough available help and guidance for him to grow.

Where there is true talent, it can also be developed. It is a team sport.

Lewis could overcome his size if he was fast, like Darrell Green. But he's not. I think Lewis is maximizing his potential already. It's not often that any 4.54 CB is successful in the NFL. Most have to convert to safety.

 

[eromeopolk]

Who was the motivation now? It wasn't a wife's tale as above. Smart is smart when it happens...

Read that again "Tail" not "Tale". If you hire a department head and team members, then it is something that did not exist prior to the hiring. That is not leading the curve like Gil Brandt did with scouting.

Maybe now that they have a Strategic Football Analytic department, they can develop the strategy "you pass to score, run to win, and defense wins championships" See the Dallas Cowboys 1960-1995 strategic football analysis.

 

[Setackin]

All very up on the AFC...

Wish they were up on the NFC.

 

[CCBoy]

Strong owners are strong enough people to let OTHER people call the shots if they are better. Strong owners don't get rid of talented coaches, and abstain from hiring Strong GMs because they don't want to lose any of the credit or limelight.

That's just my opinion

The man knows football and is not ignorant of the why's and when of managing...even if a young 'fan' uses blame a lot.

I don't have a problem respecting his integrity or ability to run the team that is check off in the rebuilding on. He already do that while you continue on with a shame blame game already handled here and now. Sorry guy...look again or prove more than an attitude with discussable statistical facts and quotes.

 

[CCBoy]

Lewis could overcome his size if he was fast, like Darrell Green. But he's not. I think Lewis is maximizing his potential already. It's not often that any 4.54 CB is successful in the NFL. Most have to convert to safety.

That is a weight pulling him under then, as he doesn't have the desired size and effective for being a safety and at the line of scrimmage also.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

The man knows football and is not ignorant of the why's and when of managing...even if a young 'fan' uses blame a lot.

I don't have a problem respecting his integrity or ability to run the team that is check off in the rebuilding on. He already do that while you continue on with a shame blame game already handled here and now. Sorry guy...look again or prove more than an attitude with discussable statistical facts and quotes.

I don't have to prove anything. As stated....that's just my opinion
Just like u don't have to prove urs.

 

[CCBoy]

I don't have to prove anything. As stated....that's just my opinion
Just like u don't have to prove urs.

That is accepted from the start but I still attempt to stick to a reasonable talking process where attitude plays less of a mission in attempting a conclussion and not more of a stereotype.

I do understand that you are at least talking, so enjoy the season as a fan.

 

[CowboysLakerBamaFan]

That is accepted from the start but I still attempt to stick to a reasonable talking process where attitude plays less of a mission in attempting a conclussion and not more of a stereotype.

I do understand that you are at least talking, so enjoy the season as a fan.

Hmmmm. I'm fascinated by your unusual way of speaking.

per chance...do you work for a company that writes those little messages they put in fortune cookies?

 

[CCBoy]

Hmmmm. I'm fascinated by your unusual way of speaking.

per chance...do you work for a company that writes those little messages they put in fortune cookies?

Do you make pizza? You aren't Italian...and are lousy with a lie.