Current RB outlook

[Bungarian]

No

 

[Ken]

The problem with Darren McFadden is no longer that he's "injury prone." The problem is that he isn't effective. Whereas McFadden managed a 3.34 YPC average in Oakland the past three seasons, teammates Mike Goodson(6.31), Latavius Murray (5.17), Marcel Reece (4.56), and Rashad Jennings (4.50) all severely outperformed him behind the same offensive line. While landing in Dallas has sparked some intrigue among fantasy leaguers, McFadden in all likelihood will get beaten out by Joseph Randle or a running back the Cowboys add off the street in training camp. I would prefer taking a double-digit-round flier on McFadden over paying Randle's skyrocketing price tag, but DMC's average draft slot remains in the seventh round.

So just focusing on your McFadden point because I keep hearing this over and over and after watching every one of DMC's 155 carries...I just can't believe that any back could be good behind that line.

So just taking a closer look at Latavious Murray...(5.17) was on 82 carries, one of which was a 90 yarder. Great for him but if you take away that 90 yarder, he is averaging 4.1 ypc. And that is with about half the carries that DMC had and DMC faced some stiff D's with no breathing room on a good number of those early season carries that Murray was not get beat up in. Looking at Murray's game log, he had 2 games where he received over 20 carries late in the season last year. He had 23 carries for 76 yards vs SF for a 3.3 yard average and 23 carries for 86 yards for a 3.7 yard average and he actually had a 25 yard carry in that game to inflate that number. He only had 2 other games with more than 10 carries and didn't do much. He really was not much more effective if at all than DMC. If anything, he had a few more longer runs but that is about it.

Maurice Jones Drew averaged 2.2 ypc on 43 carries. Seems about right because he was the starter or at least sharing carries in the early part of the year and was clearly less effective than DMC.

Marcel Reece has 20 carries for 4.0 ypc last year...not indicative of anything.

 

[jobberone]

Whoever starts the next RB thread wins a toaster.

 

[AbeBeta]

Randle has never averaged more than 3.4 a carry with 10 carries or more. His average last season was inflated by several lengthy runs. Take some of those runs out and he was only gaining 2-3 yards per carry. I haven't seen him consistently produce 4-5 yards a carry. With an added workload we'll see if he can produce consistently.

That's a dumb statistic as it is based on four games.

Gee. Imagine if we had found him three more garbage time carries against Jax. Even if he gained zero yards he would have been 10-56. Gee, what if he got 6 garbage time carries against Wash? Even with no yards he'd be 10-69.

You simply cannot look at a guy who had about 50 carries a year in each of his seasons and make ANY sense of those projections.

Folks, if you want to use statistics, you need to bring your critical thinking skills along for the ride too. Statistics like the ones cited for 10 carries or more are just plain useless.

 

[KJJ]

That's a dumb statistic as it is based on four games.

Gee. Imagine if we had found him three more garbage time carries against Jax. Even if he gained zero yards he would have been 10-56. Gee, what if he got 6 garbage time carries against Wash? Even with no yards he'd be 10-69.

You simply cannot look at a guy who had about 50 carries a year in each of his seasons and make ANY sense of those projections.

Folks, if you want to use statistics, you need to bring your critical thinking skills along for the ride too. Statistics like the ones cited for 10 carries or more are just plain useless.

Two of those four games were starts in 2013. Last season Randle only had one game where he carried the ball more than 9 times and that was vs Indy where he carried the ball 13 times averaging only 2.8 per carry. He carried then ball 5 times vs Seattle for 52 yards averaging 10.4 a carry but 38 of his 52 yards came on one carry. If you check his stats he has a lot of 2-3 yard runs and it's these 12 to 25 yard pops that inflate his average. It was similar with Felix Jones a number of lengthy runs on a few carries but he never could consistently pick up 4-7 yards when his workload increased. In 2013 vs Detroit Randle starting in place of an injured Murray only averaged 1.9 per carry on 14 carries. He took a 3 yard loss on the Cowboys final possession with 1:02 left which led to a 3rd and long and a punt helping to cost the Cowboys that game in the final seconds. He's good at popping a few runs he had a 17 yard burst on his only carry vs Chicago but he hasn't shown any consistency.

He had 2 carries in the second game vs Philly for 13 yards and 14 of those yards came on one carry which means his other attempt was a negative carry. I'm not projecting anything with him simply pointing out what he's done with limited work. Several backs the Cowboys have had including Troy Hambrick, Marion Barber and Felix Jones all looked good with limited carries which led to starting jobs for all 3 but none of them produced consistently with larger workloads. I'm not saying Randle will end up not producing but so far he's only looked good with limited carries. If he wants to be a solid NFL back he's going to have to show he can consistently pick up those 4-7 yards in traffic. He's going to have to show he can scratch and claw for an extra 3-4 yards with defenders hanging on him when we need it this is what made Murray so effective. So far with Randle we've seen a 2 yard carry here, a 3 yard carry there, a loss of one then a 30 yard scamper which at the end of the game gives him an impressive average.

 

[Beast_from_East]

Noting to say that hasn't already been said a 1000 times already................................we just have to hope for the best a this point.

 

[AbeBeta]

Two of those four games were starts in 2013. Last season Randle only had one game where he carried the ball more than 9 times and that was vs Indy where he carried the ball 13 times averaging only 2.8 per carry. He carried then ball 5 times vs Seattle for 52 yards averaging 10.4 a carry but 38 of his 52 yards came on one carry. If you check his stats he has a lot of 2-3 yard runs and it's these 12 to 25 yard pops that inflate his average. It was similar with Felix Jones a number of lengthy runs on a few carries but he never could consistently pick up 4-7 yards when his workload increased. In 2013 vs Detroit Randle starting in place of an injured Murray only averaged 1.9 per carry on 14 carries. He took a 3 yard loss on the Cowboys final possession with 1:02 left which led to a 3rd and long and a punt helping to cost the Cowboys that game in the final seconds. He's good at popping a few runs he had a 17 yard burst on his only carry vs Chicago but he hasn't shown any consistency.

He had 2 carries in the second game vs Philly for 13 yards and 14 of those yards came on one carry which means his other attempt was a negative carry. I'm not projecting anything with him simply pointing out what he's done with limited work. Several backs the Cowboys have had including Troy Hambrick, Marion Barber and Felix Jones all looked good with limited carries which led to starting jobs for all 3 but none of them produced consistently with larger workloads. I'm not saying Randle will end up not producing but so far he's only looked good with limited carries. If he wants to be a solid NFL back he's going to have to show he can consistently pick up those 4-7 yards in traffic. He's going to have to show he can scratch and claw for an extra 3-4 yards with defenders hanging on him when we need it this is what made Murray so effective. So far with Randle we've seen a 2 yard carry here, a 3 yard carry there, a loss of one then a 30 yard scamper which at the end of the game gives him an impressive average.

So you are saying his stats are inflated because he's got big runs that inflate his YPC?

That's not a meaningful argument. Any back is going to see statistics like that.

Take Demarco Murray for example. You take out his biggest run from each of his 16 regular season games and his YPC goes down from 4.71 to 3.86. 4.7 is impressive. 3.86 is mediocre. Keep in mind I just took out his biggest run for each game - that meant for some games I only took out 9 yards or 11 yards. That's 16 runs removed from 392 total. And it has that big an effect on his average.

So again, you need to pair statistics with critical thinking.

 

[jnday]

I'd it just me , or is many of you shocked that the current Rbs on the roster seems to be the plan going into the season? Looking back, I don't think many of us would have ever believed that the current lineup would have been the only options at RB going into the offseason and draft. I guess you could call it a state of shock after seeing how much the ground game meant to the team last year. I expected so much more and that didn't include resigning Murray or trading for AP. I expected a couple young RBs with some upside that could develop into the type of RB that could carry the load.

 

[silver]

I'd it just me , or is many of you shocked that the current Rbs on the roster seems to be the plan going into the season? Looking back, I don't think many of us would have ever believed that the current lineup would have been the only options at RB going into the offseason and draft. I guess you could call it a state of shock after seeing how much the ground game meant to the team last year. I expected so much more and that didn't include resigning Murray or trading for AP. I expected a couple young RBs with some upside that could develop into the type of RB that could carry the load.

It's not just you. I guess they went into the offseason with a plan that never materialized. They were counting on either resinging Murray with a hometown discount or trading for Peterson (and maybe getting another hometown discount) or drafting a runner fairly high. When none of that happened they came up with the Joe Randle/DMC was the plan all along. Nobody believes Randle/DMC was plan A.

 

[KJJ]

So you are saying his stats are inflated because he's got big runs that inflate his YPC?

That's not a meaningful argument. Any back is going to see statistics like that.

Take Demarco Murray for example. You take out his biggest run from each of his 16 regular season games and his YPC goes down from 4.71 to 3.86. 4.7 is impressive. 3.86 is mediocre. Keep in mind I just took out his biggest run for each game - that meant for some games I only took out 9 yards or 11 yards. That's 16 runs removed from 392 total. And it has that big an effect on his average.

So again, you need to pair statistics with critical thinking.

You seem to be missing the point because if you take off the longest run of any RB each week their average will go down but Murray consistently picked up 4-7 yards in many situations that helped keep the chains moving last season. He was excellent picking up those so called "dirty yards" that Garrett keeps talking about. We have yet to see that with Randle who's been able to come in and break off a few lengthy runs after Murray has softened up the defense. I mentioned Troy Hambrick use to break off some nice runs subbing for Emmitt and it got everyone excited about him including Jerry. Once he became the starter and his workload increased those pops for 12-30 yards reduced dramatically and he never showed he could consistently pick up 4-7 yards. It's been the same for every backup RB the Cowboys have had they show flashes in relief but very little once they became starters. Julius Jones provided some long runs but again he could never consistently run between the tackles and pick up those 4-7 yards which is why the Cowboys benched him in favor of Barber.

MB3 was great picking those tough yards up being kept fresh as a backup but once his workload greatly increased as a starter he began to slowly flame out. You would have thought Randle would have taken more advantage of the 2 starting opportunities he got as a rookie. He was so bad vs Detroit the Cowboys tried pounding Tanner for some tough yards in the closing minute and he even took a loss. Those "dirty yards" are the ones I'm concerned about those are the difference making yards. I'm not saying Randle can't get it done in those situations but I don't see near the power with him that I saw with Murray who could level a defender and pull away from arm tackles. The jury is out on all the Cowboys RB's and we won't have a verdict until during or after the 2015 season.

 

[AbeBeta]

You seem to be missing the point because if you take off the longest run of any RB each week their average will go down but Murray consistently picked up 4-7 yards in many situations that helped keep the chains moving last season. He was excellent picking up those so called "dirty yards" that Garrett keeps talking about. We have yet to see that with Randle who's been able to come in and break off a few lengthy runs after Murray has softened up the defense. I mentioned Troy Hambrick use to break off some nice runs subbing for Emmitt and it got everyone excited about him including Jerry. Once he became the starter and his workload increased those pops for 12-30 yards reduced dramatically and he never showed he could consistently pick up 4-7 yards. It's been the same for every backup RB the Cowboys have had they show flashes in relief but very little once they became starters. Julius Jones provided some long runs but again he could never consistently run between the tackles and pick up those 4-7 yards which is why the Cowboys benched him in favor of Barber.

MB3 was great picking those tough yards up being kept fresh as a backup but once his workload greatly increased as a starter he began to slowly flame out. You would have thought Randle would have taken more advantage of the 2 starting opportunities he got as a rookie. He was so bad vs Detroit the Cowboys tried pounding Tanner for some tough yards in the closing minute and he even took a loss. Those "dirty yards" are the ones I'm concerned about those are the difference making yards. I'm not saying Randle can't get it done in those situations but I don't see near the power with him that I saw with Murray who could level a defender and pull away from arm tackles. The jury is out on all the Cowboys RB's and we won't have a verdict until during or after the 2015 season.

I'm sorry but if you average 4.7 YPC, you aren't consistently picking up 4-7 yards. Murray was great last year. But let's try to use both statistics and our brains to evaluate. Comparing performances between a 400 carry back and one who got 50 totally ignores the fact that the Randle sample is too small for comparison. How on earth you point to Randle's performance and claim anything is beyond reason.

If anyone is "missing" something, it is you. You surface-level statistical claims show a clear lack of understanding of the realities underlying those values.

 

[KJJ]

I'm sorry but if you average 4.7 YPC, you aren't consistently picking up 4-7 yards. Murray was great last year. But let's try to use both statistics and our brains to evaluate. Comparing performances between a 400 carry back and one who got 50 totally ignores the fact that the Randle sample is too small for comparison. How on earth you point to Randle's performance and claim anything is beyond reason.

If anyone is "missing" something, it is you. You surface-level statistical claims show a clear lack of understanding of the realities underlying those values.

I'm not missing anything you are because you keep missing my point. I said Murray was excellent picking up those so called "dirty yards" Garrett refers to and in many of those situations he was gaining 4-7 yards. No back is going to consistently pick up 4-7 yards on every single carry but Murray kept the chains moving last season in tough yardage situations due to his power and cutback ability which is why he was leaned on for a franchise record 392 carries. Randle was kept fresh due to limited carries which enabled him to pop some runs. He's a quicker, shiftier and maybe even faster back than Murray but the Cowboys have gone through quicker, shiftier, faster backs the past several years because they weren't consistent picking up the tough chain moving yards. Murray has made some great plays where there was no play to be made. All Randle has shown is he can run through a big gapping hole but has yet to show he can turn a big loss into a sizable gain.

 

[AbeBeta]

I'm not missing anything you are because you keep missing my point. I said Murray was excellent picking up those so called "dirty yards" Garrett refers to and in many of those situations he was gaining 4-7 yards. No back is going to consistently pick up 4-7 yards on every single carry but Murray kept the chains moving last season in tough yardage situations due to his power and cutback ability which is why he was leaned on for a franchise record 392 carries. Randle was kept fresh due to limited carries which enabled him to pop some runs. He's a quicker, shiftier and maybe even faster back than Murray but the Cowboys have gone through quicker, shiftier, faster backs the past several years because they weren't consistent picking up the tough chain moving yards. Murray has made some great plays where there was no play to be made. All Randle has shown is he can run through a big gapping hole but has yet to show he can turn a big loss into a sizable gain.

No. Actually you are missing everything because you are basing comparisons on a guy who rarely got the ball.

It is sad that critical thinking takes such a back seat in our education these days

 

[KJJ]

No. Actually you are missing everything because you are basing comparisons on a guy who rarely got the ball.

It is sad that critical thinking takes such a back seat in our education these days

What's sad is you're wasting both our time by not applying any critical thinking you're just looking to argue. Anyone who has the ability to comprehend can see I've made comparisons between Randle and other backups the Cowboys have had who looked good with few carries. Randle had 7 carries vs JAX for 56 yards averaging 8.0 per carry but 40 of those yards came on one carry. That gave him an average of less than 3 yards a carry on his 6 other carries. He had 4 carries for 69 yards vs Wash averaging 17.3 a carry but 64 of those yards came on one carry. Against Indy he had a season high 13 carries and gained only 37 yards averaging 2.8 a carry.

Even in that game he popped a 12 yarder. Randle would average below 3 yards per carry if you took out his long runs. I'm not saying he's a bad back and can't get the job done with more carries but the jury is still out on whether he can. He's had 2 starting opportunities and over 100 career carries and although he has some burst and speed he's not a punishing back that's going to run over defenders like Murray. He's shown he needs room to run to make plays or he's going down without much of a fight. He's not going to wear down defenses so it's going to take a committee to have a solid running game in 2015. We covered this enough it's time to move on.

 

[Silver N Blue]

So just focusing on your McFadden point because I keep hearing this over and over and after watching every one of DMC's 155 carries...I just can't believe that any back could be good behind that line.

So just taking a closer look at Latavious Murray...(5.17) was on 82 carries, one of which was a 90 yarder. Great for him but if you take away that 90 yarder, he is averaging 4.1 ypc. And that is with about half the carries that DMC had and DMC faced some stiff D's with no breathing room on a good number of those early season carries that Murray was not get beat up in. Looking at Murray's game log, he had 2 games where he received over 20 carries late in the season last year. He had 23 carries for 76 yards vs SF for a 3.3 yard average and 23 carries for 86 yards for a 3.7 yard average and he actually had a 25 yard carry in that game to inflate that number. He only had 2 other games with more than 10 carries and didn't do much. He really was not much more effective if at all than DMC. If anything, he had a few more longer runs but that is about it.

Maurice Jones Drew averaged 2.2 ypc on 43 carries. Seems about right because he was the starter or at least sharing carries in the early part of the year and was clearly less effective than DMC.

Marcel Reece has 20 carries for 4.0 ypc last year...not indicative of anything.

What is indicative is all those backs were better than Dmac. Minus MJD who was done three years ago and still started over Dmac last season when they were both healthy.

 

[dallasdave]

What is indicative is all those backs were better than Dmac. Minus MJD who was done three years ago and still started over Dmac last season when they were both healthy.

The answer is coming from the north.

 

[Ken]

What is indicative is all those backs were better than Dmac. Minus MJD who was done three years ago and still started over Dmac last season when they were both healthy.

By this logic, Randal was better than Murray last year because his YPC were higher......

 

[AbeBeta]

What's sad is you're wasting both our time by not applying any critical thinking you're just looking to argue. Anyone who has the ability to comprehend can see I've made comparisons between Randle and other backups the Cowboys have had who looked good with few carries. Randle had 7 carries vs JAX for 56 yards averaging 8.0 per carry but 40 of those yards came on one carry. That gave him an average of less than 3 yards a carry on his 6 other carries. He had 4 carries for 69 yards vs Wash averaging 17.3 a carry but 64 of those yards came on one carry. Against Indy he had a season high 13 carries and gained only 37 yards averaging 2.8 a carry.

Even in that game he popped a 12 yarder. Randle would average below 3 yards per carry if you took out his long runs. I'm not saying he's a bad back and can't get the job done with more carries but the jury is still out on whether he can. He's had 2 starting opportunities and over 100 career carries and although he has some burst and speed he's not a punishing back that's going to run over defenders like Murray. He's shown he needs room to run to make plays or he's going down without much of a fight. He's not going to wear down defenses so it's going to take a committee to have a solid running game in 2015. We covered this enough it's time to move on.

You can play this silly game with any back. You took carries out of performances for TWO games, removing 2 of 11 carries and then computed an average.

Gee, I wonder what happens with someone like Murray if we take out 1 of every 5.5 carries?

Let's take the Jax game - Murray had 19-100. A good game a bit over his season average at about 5.3 YPC. If I remove his top three carries, blammo, now we've go 16 carries for 44 yards. Is that above 3 YPC. Nope. I took out fewer than 1 per 5.5 carries as well.

You haven't discovered any meaningful truths about Randle here. You are simply describing how the YPC statistic is skewed. This isn't something unique. Every back's stats look worse when you remove their best runs.

 

[Doomsday101]

I think the talk of removing long runs is a bit silly what also gets left out is when using YPC is that some runs are designed only to pick up the 1 to 2 yards, needed to move the chain or put it over the goal line. Seldom in a bunch formation is the RB going to have a 20 yard or more run, the play is designed to pick up the needed short yardage and that 1 or 2 yards does not help your YPC but it does affect the outcome of a game

 

[AbeBeta]

I think the talk of removing long runs is a bit silly what also gets left out is when using YPC is that some runs are designed only to pick up the 1 to 2 yards, needed to move the chain or put it over the goal line. Seldom in a bunch formation is the RB going to have a 20 yard or more run, the play is designed to pick up the needed short yardage and that 1 or 2 yards does not help your YPC but it does affect the outcome of a game

A back who got a bunch of garbage time runs might be seeing more bunch formations as well. The goal at that point is just to eat clock. Yet garbage time runs are cited as evidence of poor productivity.