Dak and Comebacks

[john van brocklin]

Dak is a front-runner. Always has been.



He plays just as poorly as Justin Fields, when the Cowboys arent favored

That is I fairly strong indictment.
Ouch!

 

[McMicah]

Correct. Dak had 2 comeback games last year after missing 5 games due to injury, so what is the problem???

The problem is total of 15 comebacks years 1-3, and a whopping 5 years 4-8. No other QB I could find had a regression that sharp and that long term, and most of the QBs don’t even have winning records so there’s much less opportunities for comeback games at all.

 

[America's Cowboy]

The problem is total of 15 comebacks years 1-3, and a whopping 5 years 4-8. No other QB I could find had a regression that sharp and that long term, and most of the QBs don’t even have winning records so there’s much less opportunities for comeback games at all.

Meh. Dak had an excellent front 5 starting Oline his first 3 years. Then the Oline started getting old, sick and injured. Add in the everything else thar affects a team, plus injuries, there you have it.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

I honestly think it’s the physical cascading into the mental. Like there were 2 49ers plays where Dak rolled to the flat and a LB pursued him and sacked him.

2016-2018 Dak scrambles and KNOWS he has the athleticism to just run it if the LB gets close or even juke him and buy 1 more second to throw. It feels like 2020-present Daks mind wants to do those things and then he remembers he can’t and then can’t make a decision (even to throw it away) and just takes a sack.

I’m sure it sucks not having the athleticism you used to have just a few years prior and I bet that messes with his mind. I still think backyard ball, athletic version of Dak is the best version of him that exists, and without that athlete, he has to be pocket Dak, and man…it just doesn’t seem the same.

Oh for sure physically Dak is not the same guy. Even appearance wise.

https://encrypted-tbn0.***NOT-ALLOWED***/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTdi6riTOwN35TeZWmjqbm3QOHWPGgjMShzFPdD2U7yN4nFc3h3tzZQ2r3VL9ZLX82ZYTQ&usqp=CAU


I dont' know maybe its the sleeves he just looks smaller to me. At least 10-15 smaller than when he came into the league. So he's not as big as he once was and he's not as fast but honestly there are guys slower than him who can run more than he can. He just waits to long to make the decision.

Ultimately, it feels like Dak is a robot. Like he's asked to playa role and he plays it. From his interviews to his play on the field. He has mastered the interview. Can't master the game playing that way though.

I say let him go out on his own note and let him play freely. No more restrictions.

 

[leeblair]

I went down a rabbit hole and looked at all QB comebacks on pro football reference.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=PresDa01

I looked at almost every one of the top 100 QBs for all-time comebacks. Dak sits just outside the top 100, but something is off.

Almost every QB has a relatively consistent amount of comebacks annually. Maybe you find a two year stretch with low or high comebacks, but regardless of team, every qb is relatively consistent, except Dak…

Dak’s first 3 years he had 14 comebacks (5, 4, 5). That’s pretty impressive. The last 5 seasons? A whopping 5. There were injuries and I’m sure other factors to consider, but Dak has never had more than 2 comebacks any given year since 2018.

I really do think when we look back someday, we are going to admit that injury hampered him more than anyone thought.

The competition got stronger.
Dak and the media falsely inflated his status against a relatively weak NFL and a very weak NFC East.
But as the scheduling got tougher and the East began to rebuild, Dak's success has faded.
He still padded his stats against loose defenses when the Cowboys were getting beat handily, and put up good stats against teams the Cowboys overpowered, but Dak's entire career is misrepresented by stats. We all have seen the truth; he chokes against good teams.

 

[plasticman]

I didn’t care about total comebacks. I did normalize it to percentage. But my point was that his first 3 years account for almost all of his comebacks, whereas other QBs spread their comebacks pretty consistently across their career. That’s my concern. Any statistician would say there was some step function that occurred between 2018 and 2020 to make that massive drop off. That’s the injury

I looked at the 164 quarterbacks in NFL history that threw 2000 or more passes in their career before the start of this season. Dak's 4th quarter comebacks percentage is 12.37 %. That is, he played in 97 regular season games and had a 4th quarter comeback 12 times or 12.37% of the time.

Out of the 164 most prolific passers in NFL history, Dak is ranked 39th. That is in the top quarter or top 25% of all quarterbacks in NFL history that threw at least 2000 passes in their careers. That's certainly enough pass attempts to define a career.

A decrease in comebacks isn't necessarily a bad thing. Could it be that comebacks weren't as needed?

What are comebacks? What is the first requirement in order to achieve a comeback? You have to be losing.

From 2016 to 2018 the Cowboys went into the 4th quarter of games they were losing 16 times in those 48 games or 33.3% of the time.

From 2019 to 2021, the Cowboys went into the 4th quarter of games they were losing 12 times in those 66 games or 18.2% of the time.

This means that Dak had just slightly more than half the opportunities for a comeback in the second part of his career. That's because the Cowboys had a much higher rate if winning going into the 4th quarter.

Dak had 4th quarter comebacks 8 times from 2016 to 2018 and 4 times from 2019 to 2021 He had half the comebacks in the 2nd part of his career.

Half the opportunites = half the comebacks. This also means that Dak had a consistent rate of comebacks in each part of his career. He's just had less opportunities to be losing going into the 4th quarter. It must have been all that darn scoring.

 

[plasticman]

Dak gets a lot of credit for having an outstanding rookie season, but in reality he spent the season as a bus driver. Zeke is the one who shined the most, not Dak.

An outstanding rookie season. An historic rookie season. A record breaking rookie season.

Among the rookie records he broke was passer rating, completion percentage, and number of pass attempts before 1st career INT. The last record was previously owned by Tom Brady.

And let's not forget....Dak was the starter day #1, game #1, play #1. He didn't get that 11 game rookie grace period to sit on the bench and acclimate to the NFL like Purdy.

By the time Purdy was throwing his 10th NFL pass attempt in his rookie season, Dak and the Cowboys were riding a 10 game winning streak in his rookie season.

Zeke is the one who shined the most?

Dak threw three completions to Dez Bryant for over 50 yards.

Zeke had three runs of 50 or more yards.

Dak threw to Zeke on an 83 yard completion.

It sounds pretty even to me.

 

[PAPPYDOG]

The Horsemen are attacking this thread, LOL. Will say the first year Zeke was spectacular. He was a d— beast!

Wrong Name............We are called the 95% HORSEMEN baby!!!
Proud and strong and protecting and supporting the Star at all cost, not some imposter who pretends to be an NFL QB!
Times have changed here and you Dak-Lovers are the minority maybe we should call you guys the LONELY HORSEMAN!!!!

 

[PAPPYDOG]

The competition got stronger.
Dak and the media falsely inflated his status against a relatively weak NFL and a very weak NFC East.
But as the scheduling got tougher and the East began to rebuild, Dak's success has faded.
He still padded his stats against loose defenses when the Cowboys were getting beat handily, and put up good stats against teams the Cowboys overpowered, but Dak's entire career is misrepresented by stats. We all have seen the truth; he chokes against good teams.

Deduct his dog wins vs the NFC East since his rookie season and he is a .500 QB!!!!
28-7 vs the NFC East if I'm not mistaken here......WOOF WOOF

 

[Section446]

He peaked his rookie year; just not good.

 

[khiladi]

I went down a rabbit hole and looked at all QB comebacks on pro football reference.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/comeback.cgi?player=PresDa01

I looked at almost every one of the top 100 QBs for all-time comebacks. Dak sits just outside the top 100, but something is off.

Almost every QB has a relatively consistent amount of comebacks annually. Maybe you find a two year stretch with low or high comebacks, but regardless of team, every qb is relatively consistent, except Dak…

Dak’s first 3 years he had 14 comebacks (5, 4, 5). That’s pretty impressive. The last 5 seasons? A whopping 5. There were injuries and I’m sure other factors to consider, but Dak has never had more than 2 comebacks any given year since 2018.

I really do think when we look back someday, we are going to admit that injury hampered him more than anyone thought.

I said this before. It’s a myth built on bus-driving, with the dominant OL and RG wearing down the opposing defense. Comeback on such cases is a 1 point lead in the 4th.

He’s NEVER been good if you put the numbers to +\- 8 with 5 minutes to go, when you need to win on the QBs arm. He’s among the bottom dwellers of the league.

 

[khiladi]

After that he should see how many of these comebacks were because of Zeke.

I think that’ll answer his question on why the fall off has happened after his first couple years.

I said this so many times before.

Dak fanboys kept yapping that Dak “outplayed” his rookie contract. I was like this is garbage, as we saw him in 2017, he sucked and without Zeke for 6 games, one of the worst QBs in the league. 2018 without Amari he was trash and even with Amari sucked against zone.

This is why I don’t complain about Zeke doing what he did, sitting out and getting the contract. His drop-off was the shelf-life of a RB. If anybody earned his pay, it was Zeke. Dak was just riding his coattails.

 

[khiladi]

Dak gets a lot of credit for having an outstanding rookie season, but in reality he spent the season as a bus driver. Zeke is the one who shined the most, not Dak.

That’s why the team rested Zeke, but made Dak play the last game.

 

[noshame]

Year one he was mobile.
Year 2,3 he still was mobile enough to keep defenses honest.
I feel since the horrific ankle injury he just doesn't like running and is non effective.
I don't blame him, but without it (creating separation) hes not accurate enough to survive in the national football league. Like hundreds of other college quarterbacks.

Nice guy, he's tried his arse off, but time to move on.

 

[khiladi]

Dak was ascending until his leg got hurt, this year definitely regression, based on seeing some of the play designs and calls I don't believe it's all on Dak.

No he wasn’t.. he had 7 TOs before his leg injury and his stats were garbage. 2017 and 2018, Dak was trash, especially when Zeke was suspended. In 2019, he started having his typical worst QB play stretch in football and he couldn’t even beat Wentz with 3rd string corners and throwing over 40 timesx to qualify for the playoffs.

 

[glimmerman]

Yeah I was hoping his second year after the injury he would be back to normal but he won’t run with it very often. That’s made him very one dimensional.

 

[McKDaddy]

It's his confidence.

This the answer but it's not the fans fault. He skated thru 2016 but in 2017 teams had him figured out & began to take away the easy stuff. He realized & opposing players told him that he wasn't good enough to beat them without the running game or defense carrying most of the load. He has tried to rise to the task but just can't, since then he's just faking the bravado.

 

[McKDaddy]

No he wasn’t.. he had 7 TOs before his leg injury and his stats were garbage. 2017 and 2018, Dak was trash, especially when Zeke was suspended. In 2019, he started having his typical worst QB play stretch in football and he couldn’t even beat Wentz with 3rd string corners and throwing over 40 timesx to qualify for the playoffs.

It's amazing how people gloss over the abysmal stretches he's had.

 

[zeke21]

It's amazing how people gloss over the abysmal stretches he's had.

Yep.. can cut and paste my response to this tired trope that Dak was 'better' before the injury or how it is EVERYBODY elses fault. Dak was never great.. not once.. not ever. His biggest claim to fame was that he competently drove the bus in his rookie year. I will happily state that he played exceptionally well as a fourth round rookie QB in 2016 and it allowed us to win and save the season. The only thing that went wrong was our stupid FO (and some of our fanbase) misunderstanding his skill level and then dumping Romo.

Dak has never, ever, never ever been a franchise caliber QB. On a rookie contract.. he was great value and you could make an argument for building a list around him (maybe) but paying him elite QB money was crazy then and it is looking really bad now.

This is not about his injury.. he was never the guy that so many wanted him to be. Luckiest man in football.

 

[GINeric]

After that he should see how many of these comebacks were because of Zeke.

I think that’ll answer his question on why the fall off has happened after his first couple years.

Are there any other quarterbacks in history who's comebacks are due to the running backs or is this another one of your new categories thats designed for Dak only.....